2010 The year ahead:
Fed Leaders Spell Out Concerns For 2010 – BY PHIL HALL – What can the mortgage banking industry expect in the new year? According to recent speeches offered by several leaders within the Federal Reserve System, 2010 will be just as challenging as 2009 – and, perhaps, even more so – unless changes in attitude and perception are put into place. – MortgageOrb
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VAT Ahead? – An anthropologist looks at Transaction taxes. Why 2014 might look like 1914. – Nick Gogerty – There is a lot of talk about a transaction TAX in the US. One can argue whether it is punitive, driven by vigilante populism or a legitimate safety mechanism a la Tobin. One of the sub-fields of anthropology is archaeology, the science of looking through dead people’s junk in an act of guessing how people believed, behaved and organized themselves into cultures. Stamps are a useful way to revisit transaction taxes. – Designing better Futures
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Why Interest Rates Will Rise in 2010 – Charles Hugh Smith – Interest rates, artifically suppressed by the Federal Reserve and China, are about to start rising, and will continue rising for a generation. – … There have two primary drivers of super-low interest rates: The Federal Reserve and the Chinese buying Treasury bonds. … – Of Two Minds
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Freddie Mac sees rates headed to 6 percent by end of 2010 – … Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, told the newspaper that interest rates were bound to rise to 6 percent by the end of 2010 because private buyers would demand a higher rate of return on the securities than did the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank … – Washington Post
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Brace For Impact: In 2010, Demand For US Fixed Income Has To Increase Elevenfold…Or Else – Submitted by Tyler Durden – … Accounting for securities purchased by the Fed, which effectively made the market in the Treasury, the agency and MBS arenas, but also served to “drain duration” from the broader US$ fixed income market, the stunning result is that net issuance in 2009 was only $200 billion. Take a second to digest that. … Out of the $2.22 trillion in expected 2010 issuance, $200 billion will be absorbed by the Fed while QE continues through March. Then the US is on its own: $2.06 trillion will have to find non-Fed originating demand. To sum up: $200 billion in 2009; $2.1 trillion in 2010. Good luck. … lots more – Zero Hedge
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Blogger Rakes on 2010 – 2010 Bespoke Roundtable – Posted by Prieur du Plessis – Bespoke Investment Group has just conducted a roundtable on the outlook for the economy and financial markets by surveying opinions from individuals that run “the best financial blogs and websites” – Investment Postcards from Cape Town
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10 Surprises for 2010 –
I can’t help but the join the bull market in 2010 surprises. Here they are, like ‘em or not….
10. Obama administration despite pyrrhic healthcare victory sets sights on social security reform including some means-testing and tax and contribution holidays for those working longer than age 65.
9. The DGDF meme wilts. Carry-trades in entire anti-dollar complex implode. EM equity fares best (relatively) in unwind. – read the other 8 at Cassandra Does Tokyo
2009 Lookback
‘New Normal’ Tops 2009 List of Overused Phrases: Caroline Baum – Bloomberg
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lots of charts – 2009 Economic Year in Review: The Recovery Has Started – Hale “Bonddad” Stewart – Huffington Post
So in conclusion,
1.) Manufacturing is making a strong recovery.
2.) Housing is on the mend, although there is still work to be done
3.) The consumer is spending again, although weakly
4.) It appears the economy will start to create jobs over the next few months
5.) The economy grew in the third quarter
In short, the recession is clearly over. However, growth is weak. But, considering where we started the year, we’re actually doing pretty well.
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A Decade of Despair – By Alan J. Heavens – Philadelphia Inquirer Real Estate Writer – goes into September 11, securitization, and other factors shaping housing over the decade – Philly.com