The UN climate negotiations are getting more tense by the day. Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC Yvo De Boer, reflecting on his work today, noted that “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink” in reference to the Heads of State who will be arriving over the next 48 hours with a view to a political agreement being reached.
US Special Envoy Todd Stern spent a good portion of his day informally negotiating with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua, Vice Chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The US is in a continual position of defending President Obama’s mitigation targets of 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 when IPCC data suggests deeper cuts (25-40 percent) and from a different baseline level (1990). US officials put on a full court press today putting out the word that there are “different pathways” to reach the same scientific goals and their targets are as ambitious as any brought to Copenhagen. When pressed on the issue of whether Obama’s announced negotiating position is indeed a final position, Stern stated that he is “not anticipating any further changes to mitigation reduction targets but there are other programs in the Congressional bills beyond the direct targets that would reduce emissions significantly further.” I spoke with a colleague at the World Resources Institute, (the former employer of Jonathan Pershing, a key negotiator for the State Department) on this matter who notes a study finding that additional potential emission reduction programs under the Waxman-Markey bill (from which the current 17 percent position originates) beyond the stated cap target could actually get the US 33 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. National Renewable Energy Portfolio standards are an example of an additional policy measure that can achieve further reductions.
China on the other hand, is under pressure to “put pen to paper” in the international compliance context. The China mitigation pledge is to reduce "carbon intensity" by 40-45 percent by the year 2020, compared with 2005 levels. Carbon intensity, China’s preferred measurement, is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each unit of GDP. By and large that target appears to be a satisfying starting point for the US and others, although there is certainly pressure for more. More relevant to the informal negotiations today, the US wants some measure of international review and auditing processes and agreed upon methodologies for commitments by all countries. China and the US are not yet there on a political deal that encompasses a shared vision of monitoring, verification and reporting.
Thrown into the mix are the continued G77 demands on climate finance and setting a deadline for a legally binding agreement in 2010 to firm up the political deal anticipated here in Copenhagen. President Obama’s calls to some African leaders yesterday and their return to the negotiating table appear to signal that piece of the puzzle can come together at the end of the day. The negotiations are now focused on taking the various negotiation text pieces as far as possible with a deadline for working groups to report to the Plenary by tomorrow morning with results. At that point, the horses will begin trotting into town….and there is plenty of water (and now snow!) in Copenhagen. Stay tuned.