Did you hear about the two blondes who froze to death in a drive-in movie? They had gone to see, “Closed for the Winter.”
I had my standard “beginning of the year” meeting with the family. My soon-to-be 18-yr old son reported that this time in his life is “unprecedented” for him, and that he is working on his “exit strategy” from high school. He then said that this would be an “historic opportunity” for me to provide him working capital. My 15-yr-old daughter (going on 25) said that although she is seeing “green shoots” in the economy, she will need to continue to spend in order to assist her Personal Consumption and that I shouldn’t let “uncertainty” keep that from happening. My wife thought that we should “circle back after the first quarter”, during which we can continue to “reach out” to our partners and vendors. Is this kind of talk the “new normal”?
OK, eventually the Fed will either end their $1.25 trillion mortgage-security purchase program, or extend it. Everyone, including the shoeshine boy, knows this – don’t pay any high priced consultants to tell you that. And rates will react accordingly. But heck, not only do we have several more months of the program, but we also have the possibility that either they will extend it, or that an investor-based market will re-develop – just like “the old days”. Let’s cheer for the private investors coming back in.
Do you have money in the bank? Probably. Do banks and money managers have lots of capital? Sure they do. Most recognize that the core of the problem is not a lack of capital, but rather a lack of willingness to deploy/invest it. If everyone is saving for a rainy day, they’re happy just to have the return of their capital rather than earn a good return on their capital. And a solid housing recovery relies on mortgage credit, decent rates, and a private mortgage market.
Where does warehouse lending stand these days?