Sally Benson, head of Stanford University’s Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), said today that the world can meet its future energy needs and control climate change — but the strategy for achieving this goal will inevitably include the use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
“We need a fresh look at our energy system,” Benson said at today’s SDForum conference titled “The State of Clean Energy: Global Challenges and Opportunities.”
At current rates, global demand for energy is expected to double to 30 terawatts by 2050, up from 15 terawatts today, given projected population and economic growth, she explained. For context, 30 terawatts is the amount needed to power 30 billion American homes.
By transforming the types of energy used, how it is developed and how emissions can be reduced or contained, the world community will be able to meet its growing needs while simultaneously cutting down on greenhouse gases, Benson asserted.
“At the end of the day, solving the climate change problem is more about transforming our energy systems than limiting greenhouse gas emissions,” she said. “If we successfully transform our energy system we will achieve those reductions.”
Benson laid out plans for a new energy mix, and explained how a combination of different sources, on top of conservation efforts, will slow the growth of energy demand while fueling the economy and protecting the environment.
Behavior-based conservation, like deciding to ride a bike instead of driving a car, could reduce the predicted 30 terawatts by 20 percent to 24 terawatts, she said. Improving energy efficiency in designs for buildings and transportation systems could cut projected demand by another 20 percent to 20 terawatts.
If this can be done, a combination of new and existing sources of power could be used to meet the 20 terawatt quota. Here’s Benson’s plan for that future, roughly sketched:
- Petroleum-based fuels would still be needed to provide 4 terawatts of energy. “We have lots of fossil fuels left,” Benson said, along these lines.
- Natural gas could also generate about 4 terawatts in 2050 if production were increased 20 percent over the next 40 years.
- Solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal sources could generate 5 terawatts, but would require a tenfold increase in investment over today.
- Biofuels could contribute 1 terawatt.
- Coal could contribute 3 terawatts of energy, though Benson’s plans call for coal generation generation to be reduced by 17 percent from 2000 levels. She also emphasized the need to invest in carbon capture and sequestration techniques to control emissions. This is a large part of the research she conducts at Stanford.
- Nuclear power could generate 3 terawatts, but would require an eightfold increase in global generation of nuclear power. Benson understands the controversial nature of nuclear power, particularly in the U.S., but says her students are more open to considering it than those in years past.
These sources add up to the 20 terawatts Benson believes the world will need by 2050 if measures are taken to tighten efficiency and trim demand. The world needs “a diverse and robust energy supply,” she said. “The environmental and health benefits will follow.”
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