NATO’s major diplomats and other assorted friends are in London right now to reinforce their commitment to the post-Taliban government in Afghanistan headed by Hamid Karzai. The so-called London Conference (following on the 2011 Bonn Conference) has just issued its communique, essentially a document outlining political, security, economic and diplomatic goals and the commitment of the signatories to achieving them (and funding them). This part jumped out at me.
Conference Participants welcomed the shared commitment to create the conditions to allow for transition as rapidly as possible. This is with a view to a number of provinces transitioning to ANSF lead, providing conditions are met, by late 2010/early 2011, with ISAF moving to a supporting role within those provinces. Conference Participants welcomed the intention to establish a process among the Government of Afghanistan, ISAF and other key international partners to assess progress and monitor in areas other than security that influence transition.
That’s the first indication I’ve seen that any security transition to Afghan control will occur before President Obama’s “strategic inflection point” of July 2011. This will probably occur in the more-secure provinces of Afghanistan first, and not the restive south and east, but still. The document also supports a goal of expanding the Afghan National Army and Police to 305,600 men-in-uniform by October 2011. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the NATO commander in Afghanistan, thinks the total ideal size for the two forces is 400,000, but he’s testified that his preference is the fastest realistic possible growth in quality rather than a static quota.