There’s no mistaking the impact that Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts is having on Republican efforts for the fall elections. Senator John Cornyn, Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign, says having strong GOP candidates in each race is “90% of the game,” and that Brown’s victory is making his job a lot easier these days. “We’ve heard from a lot of people who previously said they were not going to run and telling us now they’re reconsidering, “ Cornyn says. The Senator says that’s in addition to “a great range” of high-quality candidates across the country. One of the most prominent examples is the Arkansas race for incumbent Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln’s seat. Congressman John Boozman (R-AR), says Brown’s upset win convinced him that now is the right time to challenge Lincoln, and he has officially entered the race. The “Scott Brown Effect” is also showing up on the House side, where former Pennsylvania Congressman, Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, has announced he will fight to win back his seat from Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy. Murphy called Brown’s win “inspiring.”
Political analyst Stu Rothenberg says many potential GOP candidates were swayed off the fence and into the fray by Brown’s Bay State victory. “Everybody believes this is looking like a very good Republican cycle,” Rothenberg said, “even a political wave.” In recent weeks, Rothenberg has offered up a very promising outlook for Republicans, putting 58 Democratic House seats into the “competitive” category – and just 14 Republican seats. As for Senate races, Rothenberg puts 4 Democrat seats in the “Lean Takeover” category – and no Republican seats. It’s an environment Rothenberg says is perfect for GOP candidate recruiting, and one he predicts will lead to even more Democratic retirements.
Democrats say they’re having no difficulty recruiting, but concede they are likely to lose numerous seats in both the House and Senate. The man who twice chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, former Congressman Martin Frost, believes his party still has the key advantage: President Barack Obama. “He’s still personally popular,” Frost says. Of course, Obama’s name won’t be on the ballot this fall, but his policies (in essence) will be. That’s made some potential Democratic contenders think twice about wading into the midterm elections. However, Frost predicts Democrats can succeed if they make sure their candidates have the assurance of being well-financed and if they focus on “the economy and jobs.” In the meantime, Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who is in charge of recruiting GOP candidates for House races, says the party has locked in 77 “top-tier” candidates, well on the way to the party’s goal of 80.