Nothing warms the heart of a fantasy player quite like the promise of a young pitching ace, and with that in mind we’re here to discuss a couple of Cy Youngs in Waiting, Tommy Hanson and Yovani Gallardo(notes). When it’s time to add a Young Gun to your make-believe staff, which way are you gonna go? Brandon Funston and Scott Pianowski are here to sort through it, using around 250 words each (we had Jim Leyland do the counting).
BeFun Opens: Tommy Hanson(notes) is just 23, but don’t get too comfortable using the inexperience card against him: Yovani Gallardo is the same age, and Hanson showed little of the typical concerns you’d have with a rookie. His first-pitch strike percentage, according to FanGraphs.com, ranked 10th among all starters (120 IP min.). And he clocked in at a solid 36th among starters in K/BB ratio (2.52), 14 spots ahead of Gallardo (50th).
It’s Hanson’s ability to locate his pitches that makes his slider and curveball so special. And they were special. Both pitches ranked among the top 22 most valuable among starters (again, we’re talking about a rookie), and both were more valuable than any pitch-type offering from Gallardo last season. And while not as impactful as his breaking stuff, Hanson’s fastball, at an average of 92.3 mph (same as Gallardo), is far from chump change.
Special talent can accelerate the learning curve – Tim Lincecum(notes) and Justin Verlander(notes) are good recent examples. Hanson looks exceptional in every way. He’s delivered a 3.03 ERA or less and more than a K per IP at each professional stop. He’s also got the ideal physique (6-foot-6, 220) and repertoire of an ace.
Gallardo’s not going to treat you wrong, but there’s a wart or two that can’t be dismissed – he followed up a lost season due to an ACL tear by finishing third in the majors with 94 walks in ’09.
With Hanson, there are strong indicators of a cathedral-like ceiling, and I’m willing to chase it.
Pianow Responds: It’s foolish to argue against Hanson’s resume and upside, though you can find minor flags in his stat profile if you poke around. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who was somewhat lucky with his FB/HR rate last year (6.9 percent), and his BABIP (.280) and strand rate (80.3 percent) were more favorable than league averages. The stats under the hood suggested that Hanson’s 2009 ERA should have been in the mid-3s, but instead it checked in at 2.89.
I’m fine to project a strong year from Hanson, but there’s no way I’m going to expect Tim Lincecum’s 2008 season or Mark Prior’s(notes) 2003 campaign. Let’s recall a few can’t-miss sophomores who have let us down in recent years: Felix Hernandez(notes), Zack Greinke(notes), Brandon Webb(notes), any number of Florida hotshots (Willis, Johnson, Sanchez, Olsen), Joba Chamberlain(notes), Matt Cain(notes). Heck, I’m still trying to get over the 1990s scars that I got from Jason Isringhausen(notes), Bill Pulsipher and Aaron Sele(notes), sophomores gone wrong.
I realize we’re presenting Hanson vs. Gallardo as an either-or proposition, but let’s see the big picture for a moment. Early ADP returns suggest you can get Gallardo at least a round later, and I bet the gap is wider in some circles. Every logical batch of projections has these guys set to return similar numbers; Hanson might be the better ERA bet, but Gallardo’s generally pegged for a better K/9. If it comes down to a coin flip situation, give me the player with less buzz tied to him, the guy who will cost a little less. Maybe you don’t concur, but I see Bernie Brewer and the gang at Arnold’s nodding in agreement.
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