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Right now everyone is focusing on the PIIGS, with special emphasis on the “G” Greece.
If the ECB handles the situation right, then hopefully this goes nowhere. But if it goes bad, then we’re talking about contagion.
So who might fall if periphery Europe goes down?
Check out Austria. As you can see, its CDS spread is just starting to turn higher, and it’s well known that the country has major banks with dicey Eastern Europe exposure.
But for now, let’s hope the PIIGS firewall remains in place.
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