The U.S. recovery is losing momentum, according to a new index that tracks truckers as they crisscross the country.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce index measures diesel fill-ups at more than 7,000 U.S. gas stations. Since trucking activity tends to rise or fall in line with the overall economy, the index is intended to provide a nearly instantaneous look at the pace of economic growth.
The most recent news isn’t good. The index fell at a 37% annual rate in January after soaring nearly 61% in December. Its three-month moving average slowed to 3.3% annual growth.
All of this suggests that the U.S. economy is nowhere near as hot as recent government figures might suggest. Washington says the economy grew at a 5.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, but the trucking index indicates that January, in particular, was a weak month. “Don’t put your party hats on yet,” says Edward Leamer, the UCLA economist who helped create the index.
Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post.