The snowstorm thats keeping people from Washington D.C. to Gary, Ind. hemmed in at home could make a mess of the February employment report.
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| Employment reports won’t be as pretty a picture. (Associated Press) |
The storm has hit during the week that the Labor Departments Bureau of Labor Statistics takes its monthly snapshot of employment among households and employers nationwide. Since the storm has kept a large number of people from work, it could push up the unemployment rate, and lower the count of how many people are working.
The Labor Department says it wont start getting a sense of what the snowstorm will do to the jobs numbers until next week when the data starts coming in. When the jobs report comes out on March 5, a Labor Department spokesman says it will likely include a comment on the snows effect.
Looking at what large snowstorms in 1994, 1996 and 2007 did to the jobs count, Deutsche Bank economist Joe Lavorgna reckons that the payroll count could fall by 90,000 workers. As a result, he estimates that there will be 35,000 jobs added in February, rather than the 125,000 he had penciled in. If the underlying trend isn’t as positive as Mr. Lavorgna thinks, that could make potential gains into another month of declines.
While the snow will make the jobs report look worse, it will the Labor Departments weekly initial jobless claims numbers look better. Thats because it will be harder for the newly out of work to slog their way down to the unemployment office. Wall Street forecasters, who use the claims figures to come up with estimates for the monthly payrolls figures, will have an either tougher time than usual, notes Nomura economist Zach Pandl.
Its really going to be a confusing picture, he says.