After an historic weekend snowstorm hit the U.S. east coast, another winter blizzard is coming at an inopportune time for a key economic data point. It will fall during the reference period used for the calculation of the February jobs report. As a result, the timing of the storm is expected to bury payrolls in February.
National Bank chief economist and strategist Stefane Marion points out that when a blizzard shut down the eastern coast of the United States back in January of 1996, roughly 200,000 jobs were reported lost on the month. That’s a significant deviation from the average monthly creation of 150,000 observed prior to the blizzard.
Jobs rebounded very strongly in February with more than 600,000 gained, then reverted to trend the following month.
Mr. Marion also expects to see a loss of roughly 200,000 this time around, with the first sizeable increase in headcounts likely to come in March 2010.
"Those storms will drive initial jobless claims lower next week as workers find the trek into state offices more difficult to make, if they’re open," Scotia Capital said in a note to clients, noting that affected states comprise about 10% of total jobless claims.
Meanwhile, retail sales figures for January, which was previously scheduled for release Thursday, is tentatively on tap for Friday. Of course, that may not happen if Washington stays shut following the snowstorms.
Photo: Washingtonians participate in a mass snowball fight in Dupont Circle, Washington, February 10, 2010. A blizzard lashed the U.S. East Coast for the second time in less than a week, wreaking havoc from Washington to New York by forcing government agencies, the United Nations and schools to close. (REUTERS/Jason Reed)