With consumer discretionaries ranking among the top performing economic sectors in the S&P 500 so far in 2010, some might think its time has passed. However, even if the group trades at 15.8 times its 2010 estimated operating earnings, National Bank Financial’s chief economist and strategist, Stéfane Marion, is comfortable with an overweight position.
He cites data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis early this week that shows personal consumption expenditures on discretionary goods and services climbing back to pre-recession highs in January.
“The recent turnaround is all the more impressive given the fact that the labour market has yet to create jobs,” Mr. Marion said in a note.
With firms expected to resume hiring any day now, he says investors should not be surprise to see upward earnings revision to the bottom-up consensus for operating EPS in the consumer discretionary sector.