For those in the audience who may still harbour any doubts about the urgency of the issue of peak oil I will quote the former US Energy Secretary, Dr James Schlesinger, who in 2006 addressed the “Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas”(ASPO) in Ireland with this comment:
“The peakists have won … to the peakists I say, you can declare victory. You are no longer the beleaguered small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now mainstream. ”
In other words, the issue of peak oil is no longer up for debate, no longer controversial, no longer considered alarmist, and has been accepted as valid by scientists worldwide.
The term “peak oil” was coined by M.K. Hubbert in the 1950’s to refer to the theoretical turning point – when oil production would peak and then begin to decline, signalling a future of dwindling supplies. Hubbert also correctly predicted that US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association reports oil production in Australia peaked in the year 2000 .
Today’s petroleum industry analysts predict that the Global peak will occur any time now – predictions have varied – but pinpointing the actual year is not as important as knowing that it is inevitable and that we need to be ready. The analysts maintain that global oil reserves are more limited than they once believed, and that we are quickly headed for an inevitable energy drought whose impact is too massive to estimate.
Although ‘peak oil’ does not technically mean running out of oil, but rather ‘the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil’, it is used popularly to mean exactly that: running out of oil. Oil is a finite resource but it is the very basis of our modern civilisation. Oil is the key raw material for petrol, diesel, jet fuel, industrial oils, numerous chemicals and most plastics. Many industries are dependent on oil in ways that are not immediately apparent.
For example, our systems for producing and distributing food rely heavily on oil, not only for fuel for farming machinery and transport, but also for producing fertilisers and as a raw ingredient for agrichemicals, packaging plastics and so on. The more dependent we are on oil, the more vulnerable we are to increases in oil prices and declines in supply.
Robert Hirsch’s report, “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management” commissioned by the US Department of Energy, was published in February 2005. In it Hirsch examined the issue of peak oil, suggested mitigating actions, and discussed the likely impacts based on the timeliness of those actions.
Such mitigation will take much longer than a decade to take effect, Hirsch believes, because of the enormous scale of world oil consumption. But, he commented, “unless mitigation is orchestrated on a timely basis, the economic damage to the world economy will be dire and long-lasting.”
A recent documentary film, “The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream” highlighted the fact that many Americans are oblivious to the fact that their lives are ‘running on empty’. Many seem to feel that their car-centred way of life is an entitlement that operates apart from the laws of nature. This was further illustrated at the Earth Summit in 1992 when President Bush declared, “the American way of life is not negotiable”.
That ‘way of life’ requires a highly disproportionate use of the world’s non-renewable resources, and the mainstay of that way of life is suburban living. I mention this because more Australians live in suburbs than in any other settings and the warning applies to us, too. Oil depletion will mean the collapse of the Australian Dream of home ownership that relies on the automobile to transport us between our jobs in the cities, our food supplies at the shopping centres and our homes in the suburbs.
It is not, of course, as though we have not been warned. Scientists have told us since the 1950s that the world had a limited amount of fossil fuel left. And there was an oil crisis in 1973 throughout the industrialised nations – with petrol rationing here, too.
In recent decades we have been repeatedly warned by environmentalists to use less energy. Some “early adopters” gave up their cars and turned to public transport, but most people in western societies have ignored those warnings, and continued to develop more oil-thirsty, energy-intensive lifestyles. Such commentators wonder if we are experiencing collective denial by ignoring the warnings year after year?
We need to act fast, because the whole western world needs to be planning ahead. As part of that effort New South Wales needs to examine all of the issues concerning the future of our own
supplies of oil and alternative forms of energy such as wind, solar, wave and tidal, biomass from green waste, and small scale hydroelectricity.
A number of other states and cities have already done this, and are actively implementing their findings. For instance, the City and County of San Francisco, California, has a Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force that through free online “Town Hall Meetings” educates its citizens about the issue and how to prepare. Sessions have included “What’s happening with Oil”, “Growing food in an urban environment”, “Creating communities and local economies”, “Transportation”, “Personal Preparation”, and “Keeping Healthy in a Post Peak World”. They will have a prepared citizenry that will not panic when the time comes.
Closer to home, in May 2005 the Honourable Peter Beattie MP, then Premier, established Queensland’s Oil Vulnerability Taskforce. The Taskforce was asked to report on Queensland’s vulnerability to rising world oil prices driven by supply constraints including the potential peaking of world oil supplies.
The Taskforce’s report methodology included a review of published papers on world oil supply issues, consideration of detailed Australian data on proven and anticipated reserves of conventional and non-conventional energy sources, and an overview of current and emerging energy technologies.
The primary focus of the Taskforce was to present the most likely time frame for peak oil, to assess its impact on the mining, transport and primary industry sectors and then recommend options to minimise the impact on Queensland of peak oil.
The recommendations in the resulting “McNamara Report” were preliminary, identifying the requirement for more detailed analysis and modelling of the downstream impacts and substitution effects of the various proven and evolving alternative energy. However, Queensland is off to a good start.
The government of New South Wales will be flying blind if it does not learn and act upon such information for this state, as well. Over a year ago there was proposed legislation, which I supported, that aimed for a task force to assess the impact on NSW of peak oil, including different fuel types, and economic sectors. It would have determined the effect on hospitals, schools, and emergency services as well as the economy and employment trends. The proposed legislation was not passed, however.
I would ask that special attention be given particularly to the most vulnerable people in our society – after all, advice like ‘walk more and ride bicycles’ is not applicable to those with disabilities, nor to the frail aged. There will always need to be carefully planned infrastructure in place to accommodate all our people.
Regional and rural communities already at a disadvantage will be more isolated in the future and particular attention needs to be given to the 30% of the population that lives in these communities. Expanding public transport options must be urgently considered.
Let us review some basic facts for NSW: it is reported that oil production has already peaked in nine of the 11 countries that supply oil to Australia. The other 2 countries that supply us are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and their supplies are apparently stable. However, it is also believed by various petroleum experts that these countries have over-estimated reports of their oil reserves for commercial advantage; so that these are numbers which should no longer be accepted at face value.
Professor Steve Yetiv, author of America and the Persian Gulf, highlights a number of effects for which we need to be prepared sooner rather than later:
·In the absence of alternatives to oil, prices will rise steeply as the demand outpaces the available supply.
·Those price rises could trigger a global recession “or worse”.
·Even if we have found affordable alternatives it will probably take decades to actually transition to using them fully, because the use of oil is the basis of our entire way of life.
·The Middle East will become more and more powerful in its relationship to the West, and that will inevitably put us in a disadvantageous position.
·Fears about competition for oil may trigger conflicts among the nations. The US and other powers may move to secure oil supplies in ways that could ignite a broader conflict with the Muslim world, which already believes that American policy in Iraq is driven by the need for oil rather than any nobler ideal.
Nothing we do will make the situation facing us go away. But we have to act quickly to keep it from being a catastrophe.
As a Christian minister I believe that we are commissioned by God to be good stewards of the Earth. In the Book of Genesis God shows Adam the Garden of Eden and instructs him to “to tend it and keep it “.
I believe that we in NSW are called upon to assess our resources and make appropriate plans for their proper usage, and to formulate an action plan for a future without fossil fuels.
My answer to the question of the evening, “Is this the end of civilisation as we know it?” is: yes, of course it is. But that can be a good thing looked at from the right perspective.
If our generation can rise to the global challenges posed by peak oil, the new civilisation that emerges will be sustainable, integrated and ready to make a new way into the future.
I believe, along with the members of the Round Table, that the enemies of appropriate progress are ‘ignorance, apathy and fear’, as mentioned on your website. Seeking the truth and acting on it are the basis of all righteousness and will surely save the world from catastrophe when the oil runs out.
References:
Ehrlich, P.R. and A.H. Ehrlich 2004
One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future
Island Press; Washington, D.C.
The Long Descent A User’s Guide to the End of the Industrial Age
By John Michael Greer
http://www.newsociety.com/bookid/4014
Worldwatch Institute. 2007. Vital Signs 2007: The Trends that are shaping our Future.
Worldwatch Institute. Washington, D.C. http://www.worldwatch.org/vs2007
Questions and Answers
Question: Isn’t it possible that oil exploration will uncover huge new supplies somewhere in Western Australia, or elsewhere?
Answer: The last time there was a huge new oilfield discovered was in the early 1970s in the North Sea, (according to author Dr Jeremy Leggett, a petroleum geologist). The average size of oil find today is only about 50 million barrels, which barely counts when we are using 84 million barrels per day. The last year we discovered more oil than we consumed was 1981. We now use 2 barrels of oil for every barrel that is discovered.
Question: People have been predicting for over 100 years that we were running out of oil and it hasn’t happened yet. Exxon says there is twice as much oil left than all the alarmists are claiming, and that we have decades left. Do you have a comment?
Answer: I know that the petroleum scientists claim that if they can improve technology by only 10% then they will be able to recover an addition 600-800 billion additional barrels of oil. That would be good, of course, but I would not bank on it. Society needs to be prepared for the scenario as outlined by people without vested interests in the petroleum business.
Question: What can we do?
Answer: We will have no alternative but to adjust to the new circumstances, and to prepare an alternate infrastructure built on oil substitutes such as biofuels, tar sands, shale oil, and so forth.