Here’s my rank of the Top 100 or so pitchers as we head into the late-March drafting season. Assume a 5×5 scoring format, as always. The prices are arrived at unscientifically, there’s no formula at play; I just want to identify where the pockets of value are. Players at the same cost are considered equal, no matter who is listed first.
In theory each price is what I’d consider a fair amount for these players in an NL-only or AL-only league. If you play in a mixed league, you’ll pay a plot more for the star pitchers. If you’re in a keeper league, inflation will push prices up as well. Again, the importance here is how the pitchers relate to one another, not necessarily the cost of one pitcher in a vacuum. Keep that well in mind as you peruse the list.
I’ll update these about once a month in-season, and next week I’ll attack the batters (look for closers on Saturday). Your respectful, intelligent disagreement is always welcome, just make sure you support your argument. If someone looks too low or too high to you, tell me what other pitchers you’d move higher or lower than said player. Let’s work on this together; I’m always tweaking and smoothing out this list anyway, looking for the tightest set of ranks.
Okay, onto the mound:
$34 Tim Lincecum(notes)
$32 Roy Halladay(notes)
$31 Felix Hernandez(notes)
$30 Zack Greinke(notes)
$28 CC Sabathia(notes)
$28 Dan Haren(notes)
Comments: You’ll win a lot of bar bets with the question "Who had the lowest starter’s WHIP in the majors last season?" Very quietly, it was Haren . . . Lincecum justly is at the top of the list but I’m not the type of owner who drafts a pitcher in the first round. Not denying his greatness, just saying what my preference is . . . I did spring for Halladay at No. 19 overall in Tuesday’s Friends & Family League and I have zero regrets; I’ve seen too many star pitchers go ballistic when switching to the NL in recent years, and I want in on that when Doc takes dead aim. You’ve probably had enough of my Halladay propaganda, I’ll move on to something different next week . . . I’ve seen some sites praise the Mariners for their handling of Hernandez, which is a little puzzling to me; he did throw 238.2 innings last year, after all, on a 23-year-old arm. But the environment for King Felix – friendly park, dazzling defense – pushes him to the top of my AL pitcher list.
$27 Adam Wainwright(notes)
$27 Justin Verlander(notes)
$26 Johan Santana(notes)
$24 Josh Johnson(notes)
$23 Jon Lester(notes)
$23 Chris Carpenter(notes)
$22 Cliff Lee(notes)
$21 Yovani Gallardo(notes)
$21 Matt Cain(notes)
$21 Ubaldo Jimenez(notes)
Comments: A lot’s been made of Wainwright’s innings jump, but at his age and experience level, it’s not something I’m going to significantly respond to . . . Cain’s got a bunch of component concerns under the hood, and the spotty San Francisco defense might be a problem as well, but there’s no way I can go any lower than 21 on him . . . I see all the pro-Lester arguments but the AL East is a very hellish place to make your living . . . Santana is one of the trickiest calls of the spring, but when I need Mets info I go to Mike Salfino, and he’s bullish on Santana. Good enough for me.
$20 Clayton Kershaw(notes)
$20 Josh Beckett(notes)
$20 Cole Hamels(notes)
$20 Wandy Rodriguez(notes)
$20 Tommy Hanson(notes)
$20 Ricky Nolasco(notes)
$18 Javier Vazquez(notes)
$17 Jake Peavy(notes)
$17 John Lackey(notes)
$17 Chad Billingsley(notes)
$16 Jered Weaver(notes)
$16 James Shields(notes)
Comments: The fan in me wants to push higher on Kershaw, looking forward to a summer of Vin Scully describing that nasty CK curveball. But there are some buzzy players that the entire fantasy world is in on, and Kershaw appears to be one of those guys . . . Nolasco’s 2009 ERA was the easiest-to-identify outlier; we all know he pitched far better than the basic numbers show. There’s no discount to be had on him this time around, he’s going for an expectant cost, and arguably he should . . . Peavy gets a significant drop now that he’s traded Petco for The Cell, but let’s not be too ridiculous with the adjustment. He’s still got the skills to be a borderline All-Star, even in the hitter’s league. When everyone says "why bother?" it’s your job to ask "why not?"
$15 Matt Garza(notes)
$15 Scott Baker(notes)
$15 Brett Anderson(notes)
$15 A.J. Burnett(notes)
$14 John Danks(notes)
$14 Jair Jurrjens(notes)
$14 Brandon Webb(notes)
$14 Max Scherzer(notes)
$14 Roy Oswalt(notes)
$13 Scott Kazmir(notes)
$13 Carlos Zambrano(notes)
$13 Francisco Liriano(notes)
$13 Ryan Dempster(notes)
$12 Gavin Floyd(notes)
$12 Tim Hudson(notes)
$11 Johnny Cueto(notes)
$11 Rich Harden(notes)
$11 Ervin Santana(notes)
$11 Jorge de la Rosa(notes)
$11 Edwin Jackson(notes)
$11 Kevin Slowey(notes)
$11 Rick Porcello(notes)
Comments: It takes a lot for me to bid that aggressively on a sophomore pitcher like Anderson, but I don’t see any way around it. Let’s discuss his case in the comments . . . Kazmir’s gone from overhyped to forgotten about, and while he can torch a ratio with the best of him, I’m curious to see if he can rekindle his career in the low-pressure environment of The OC . . . Chicago likes to blame Zambrano for just about everything since the fire, and he’s seen his workload decrease for two straight years, but there’s something to be said for a veteran hurler that’s never had an ERA over four . . . Porcello’s modest K/9 rate pushes a lot of bidders away, but it’s just a matter of fine-tuning his stuff and maturing a little bit. He’s never going to be Lincecum East, but this isn’t a sort-tosser, either.
$10 Brian Matusz(notes)
$10 Joba Chamberlain(notes)
$10 Phil Hughes(notes)
$9 Jonathan Sanchez(notes)
$9 Ted Lilly(notes)
$9 David Price(notes)
$9 Clay Buchholz(notes)
$9 Wade Davis(notes)
$9 Daisuke Matsuzaka(notes)
$8 Aaron Harang(notes)
$7 Stephen Strasburg(notes)
$7 Hiroki Kuroda(notes)
$7 Mark Buehrle(notes)
$6 Andy Pettitte(notes)
$5 Mat Latos(notes)
$5 Derek Lowe(notes)
$5 Chris Young
$5 Randy Wolf(notes)
$5 Ben Sheets(notes)
$5 Erik Bedard(notes)
$5 Gil Meche(notes)
$5 Joe Blanton(notes)
Comments: Matusz is having a super camp and he looks like a sure-bet star, it’s just a matter of when. If he were in any other division, I’d go 12-13 bucks on him, no questions asked . . . Strasburg probably has a 40-50 percent chance to be this year’s Tommy Hanson, a high-upside kid who can help us even with a late arrival (not to mention a modest IP ceiling) . . . Buehrle isn’t the best guy for leagues that have a low innings cap, but otherwise he’s a solid contributor; there’s a lot to be said for cost certainty and getting what you pay for. Kick him up a few bucks if you’re playing in one of those antiquated 4×4 groups.
$4 Joel Pineiro(notes)
$4 Bronson Arroyo(notes)
$4 J.A. Happ(notes)
$4 Jeff Niemann(notes)
$4 Aroldis Chapman(notes)
$4 Trevor Cahill(notes)
$3 Kevin Correia(notes)
$3 Homer Bailey(notes)
$3 Ricky Romero(notes)
$3 Brad Penny(notes)
$2 John Maine(notes)
$2 Barry Zito(notes)
$2 Joe Saunders(notes)
$2 Madison Bumgarner(notes)
$2 Ryan Rowland-Smith(notes)
$2 Derek Holland(notes)
$2 Justin Duchscherer(notes)
$2 Marc Rzepczynski(notes)
$2 Luke Hochevar(notes)
$2 Paul Maholm(notes)
$1 Felipe Paulino(notes)
$1 Shaun Marcum(notes)
$1 Anibal Sanchez(notes)
$1 Mike Pelfrey(notes)
$1 Jeremy Guthrie(notes)
$1 Bud Norris(notes)
$1 Randy Wells(notes)
$1 Chris Tillman(notes)
$1 Jon Garland(notes)
$1 Kevin Millwood(notes)
$1 Clayton Richard(notes)
$1 Chris Volstad(notes)
$0 Zach Duke(notes)
$0 Brad Bergesen(notes)
$0 Oliver Perez(notes)
$0 Kyle Davies(notes)
$0 Tim Wakefield(notes)
If you want a price on someone not listed here, throw the name out in the comments, I’m all ears. I may edit this piece Friday night, as always this is a fluid list. Now it’s your turn, let’s hear some comments and as always, support your answer.