Economy and Forecasting: Bernanke, Plosser, U6 Unemployment, Velocity of Money, Zero Rates, Depression or Not?

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Speech – On the Outlook for the Economy and Policy – Chairman Ben S. Bernanke – At the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York – FRB Board

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Bernanke hints low-rate period may get even longer – Bloomberg – Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s diagnosis of a weak US economy and labour market signalled that the central bank’s extended period of low borrowing costs may get even longer. Bernanke said that “significant economic challenges remain”, with lending constrained and the jobless rate above 10 per cent. – The Economic Times of India

Speech: Food or Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation: A Central Banker’s Perspective –
President Charles I. Plosser gives a central banker’s perspective on the challenges that volatility in food prices or other relative prices poses for monetary policy. He will discuss three approaches central bankers can take to protect their credibility to control inflation in the face of these price shocks. – Philadelphia FRB

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U6 Unemployment during the Great Depression – … Unlike U3, U6 unemployment levels are a more complete and broad picture of unemployment in the United States. U6 includes U3, plus discouraged workers, those working part time who want a full time position, plus marginally attached workers. U6 unemployment levels currently reside at 17.5% … – Surly Trader

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Velocity of US money supply at long last edging up – Posted by Prieur du Plessis – … Velocity of MZM is at long last picking up after it started falling in the first quarter of 2007 – six quarters before economic growth slumped. The increase in MZM velocity effectively points to increased economic activity. Further increases in this velocity are essential for sustained economic growth. … – Investment Postcards from Cape Town

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Americans save more but earn less as rates fall – By STEVENSON JACOBS – … Rates are falling near zero this time because of prudence, not panic. … The dive in interest rates comes as Americans sock away more money. Today’s personal savings rate of 3 percent is nearly double that of a year ago. Economists say it could rise as high as 8 percent as households try to rebuild savings shredded by the recession. … – AP Yahoo

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