It is difficult to know exactly how to assess the declarations made on Iran’s National Day of Nuclear Technology.
The most significant seems to be the unveiling of a third generation centrifuge, which Iran claims can enrich uranium at six times the speed of the older models currently in place. Those centrifuges are currently referred to as the P-1 model, as they were based on a design obtained from Pakistani nuclear black marketer, AQ Khan.
David Albright, nuclear expert and author of the book “Peddling Peril” about the secret nuclear trade told Fox News, “I think the goal of Iran is to get a more reliable centrifuge. And what they are trying to present today is that somehow they’ve accomplished that. But what is missing is any evidence that they have accomplished that.”
From the pictures he saw of the event, Albright said it was hard to judge whether the centrifuge unveiled was real or a model. But he did say that when Iran announces something publicly, it tends to be authentic.
His take on the more efficient centrifuges: “It’s a significant leap for Iran in the sense that if they can get a machine that works reliably and is more powerful than the P-1, then they don’t need to build as many and that’s the main thing.”
This could be important to Iran, says Albright, because while the Islamic Republic makes its own centrifuges, it does need to import a lot of materials to do this. With sanctions on Iran, this becomes harder and harder.
Albright says, “They may need 6000 P-1’s with all the reliability problems to get enough for a bomb, when in fact, they need only 2000, 1500 of the more advanced ones to get enough for a bomb. You don’t need to smuggle as much as you would for the P-1.”
Albright talked a bit about the problems with the P-1.
“The machines are coming on and off all the time. It doesn’t mean the machine stops, but it stops enriching uranium and it’s a little bit like a Christmas tree and the lights on a Christmas tree. You’d like the lights to be on all the time and glowing a nice bright color, but what you often have, it looks like a blinking Christmas tree.”
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today said that Iran is on a nuclear path from which it will not retreat. He also said again that Iran is not after a bomb. But the international community remains as sceptical about this as ever and is meeting again to discuss further sanctions.