The National Bureau of Economic Research says we’re not out of the
recessionary woods yet, though some think the economy is looking up.
Floyd Norris of the Times, for one, thinks the numbers are pointed in the right direction. (More over at The Atlantic Wire.) Restaurants certainly seem to be rebounding.
Today, I stumbled across another intriguing indicator. It’s called the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity
— LIRA for short. Produced regularly by Harvard University’s Joint
Center for Housing Studies, the index measures “national homeowner
spending on improvements for the current quarter and subsequent three
quarters,” and aims to track “future turning points in the business
cycle of the home improvement industry.” The graph charts the trend.
The plunge from 2007 through 2008 is striking. But a turnaround does
seem to be in the works. Harvard’s Nicolas Retsinas, who directs
the Joint Center, notes that: “The LIRA suggests annual spending will
accelerate, with nearly five percent growth in 2010.”
It’s hard to tell whether the LIRA signals a broader economic
recovery. It may be that people who can’t sell their homes are deciding
that, if they have to stay put, they might as well renovate. If that’s
the case, now may be the time to start that renovation project you’ve
been putting off — well before the good contractors start
getting booked.
