Taking a closer look at some strong finishes from the 2009-10 season and notable per-36 minute averages.
• Andray Blatche(notes) is likely to be among the most discussed players
leading up to next season. His numbers in the season’s final 32 games
included 22.1 points on 48-percent shooting, 0.3 threes, 8.3 boards, 3.6
assists, 3.4 turnovers, 1.5 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 37 minutes. While
it was obvious that he would be the major beneficiary of the roster
purge in Washington, most weren’t prepared for production at that level.
Those numbers were good for a per-game rank of 44th over that time, and
single-game highs of 31 points, two threes, 13 boards, 13 assists, four
steals, and three blocks show some pretty serious versatility. What
makes it difficult to project anything for Blatche at this point is the
fact that the Wizards’ roster will look completely different next
season, as they could have as few as five players under
contract at the start of free agency. We’ve got to consider how
he’ll be able to co-exist with Gilbert Arenas(notes) and a revamped depth
chart, but in general he appears to have finally flipped that switch
that he was though to possess as a completely
dominant high school player.
• Marcus Thornton(notes) finished the season as well as just about any
other player. He delivered a second-round impact over the season’s final
26 games, averaging 21.2 points on 48-percent shooting, 84-percent foul
shooting, 2 threes, 3.9 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.5 turnovers, and 1.1
steals in 34 minutes. Simply put, he’s a fantastic offensive player – he
can shoot the three at a high percentage, finish at the rim, and make
his foul shots, so there are few holes here. How the Chris Paul(notes)/Darren
Collison "situation" plays out remains to be seen, but Thornton’s status
as an elite offensive contributor as the team’s starting shooting guard
is all but assured.
• Terrence Williams(notes) made some noise down the stretch thanks to
his penchant for counting stats. In 20 games where he saw at least 30
minutes of playing time, he averaged 14.6 points, 8.4 boards, and 4.7
assists. Things get a bit dicey beyond that, however, as he also
averaged 41-percent shooting, 71-percent foul shooting, 0.5 threes, 2.5
turnovers, 0.6 steals, and 0.3 blocks in those same games. It needs to
be noted that Williams shot just 40 percent from the field and 60
percent from the foul line over the course of his
four-year college career, and the fact that he did spend four years
in college means that his game is closer to what it will be than most
"prospects". He’s strong, athletic, and versatile, but efficiency counts
in fantasy – his per-game rank after March 1 (22 games, 31.2 minutes)
was just 159th.
• Before you read any further, make a quick estimate of where you think Derrick Rose(notes) will be drafted in 2010-11. Now take a look at his numbers in 48 games after January 1 this season – 37 minutes, 22.4 points, 51% FG, 75% FT, 0.3 threes, 4 boards, 6.2 assists, 2.7 turnovers, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks – and ask yourself how much better you expect his line to be than that in 2010-11. His per-game rank while posting those stats was 72nd, meaning he was a borderline sixth-round producer. I can already say with a high degree of certainty that there is a zero percent chance that Rose will be on any of my fantasy teams next season (with the exception being points-based leagues).
• Jrue Holiday(notes) showed some pretty serious signs over the season’s final two months, posting a sixth-round impact over his final 21 games (35 minutes, 12.6 points, 1.2 threes, 4 boards, 6.4 assists, 3.5 turnovers, 1.9 steals, 0.3 blocks). What stood out most in his rookie season from my perspective was his 39-percent shooting from three, after making just 31 percent of his college three-point attempts. The fact that Holiday was able to make serious strides as a 19-year-old rookie while his team is in a constant state of flux and turmoil bodes very well for his prospects for 2010-11 and beyond.
• How good was Stephen Curry(notes) as a rookie? Over the last three
months of the season, he was fourth in per-game rank (!) for
nine-category purposes, behind only Kevin Durant(notes), LeBron James(notes), and Dirk
Nowitzki(notes). On the season, he finished seventh overall in season rank and
11th in per-game. Only one player (Jason Kidd(notes)) finished the season with
more combined
threes, steals, and blocks than Curry. Exactly how high he’ll be drafted
next season will largely be influenced by what happens during the
Warriors’ off-season, but there’s a good chance that he’ll merit
first-round consideration. Is that crazy? Another reason for optimism in
general is that, after January 1, he was as effective for fantasy
purposes when playing alongside Monta Ellis(notes) (31 games, 20.3 points, 49%
FG, 2.3 threes, 4.6 boards, 6.2 assists, 3.2 turnovers, 1.9 steals) as
when Ellis was not in the lineup (18 games, 22.5 points, 44% FG, 3
threes, 5.5 boards, 7.8 assists, 3.6 turnovers, 1.9 steals).
• Below you will find a rundown of names and numbers that jumped out at me while I was poring over per-36 minute stats from the 2009-10 regular season. Before we jump into it, here are per-36s from some of the elite players in fantasy, which you can use for comparison’s sake:
PTS: Kevin Durant (27.5), Monta Ellis
(22.2), LaMarcus Aldridge(notes) (17.2)
3PT: Danny Granger(notes) (2.5), Vince
Carter(notes) (1.9), Andrea Bargnani(notes) (1.6)
REB: Dwight Howard(notes) (13.7), Chris
Bosh(notes) (10.8), Chris Kaman(notes) (9.7)
AST: Steve Nash(notes) (12.1), LeBron James
(7.9), Derrick Rose (5.9)
STL: Rajon Rondo(notes) (2.3), Jason Kidd (1.8),
Rudy Gay(notes) (1.3)
BLK: Dwight Howard (2.9), Josh Smith(notes) (2.2), Marc Gasol(notes)
(1.6)
Note: any reference below to per-36 rankings are among
players that appeared in at least 10 games and averaged at least 10
minutes per game. And keep in mind that any averages posted below are per 36 minutes unless otherwise noted.
• Anthony Randolph(notes) – While it’s true that it was a massively
disappointing season for the 20-year-old Randolph in fantasy circles, he
still managed a per-game rank of 92nd with just 23 minutes of playing
time. His per-game numbers weren’t bad with all things considered (11.6
points, 6.5 boards, 0.8 steals, 1.5 blocks) and his per-36s were
downright excellent (18.5 points, 10.4 boards, 1.4 steals, 2.5 blocks).
Next year’s post-hype discount could be substantial, although we won’t
know exactly how to feel about any of the Warriors until the dust
settles once team ownership
changes hands and a decision is made regarding Don Nelson’s status
for 2010-11.
• Nicolas Batum(notes) – He’s basically looking like a better version
of Shane Battier(notes) for fantasy purposes, with averages that include 14.7 points, 2.1 threes,
5.5 boards, 0.9 steals, and 1 block. If the 21-year-old can stay healthy
next season and take ownership of the Blazers’ small forward position, he’ll be highly-ranked among fantasy MVPs at the end of the year, much like Battier was at his best.
• Rodrigue Beaubois(notes) – Beaubois
ranked 21st in scoring (20.4) and 24th in threes (2.3), while also
posting 1.5 steals and 0.6 blocks. Clearly he possesses Jason Terry(notes)-like
skills and then some, but the problem here is that Terry, Jason Kidd,
and Caron Butler(notes) are all under contract for next season, and Jose Juan
Barea(notes) also can be brought back via a very reasonable team option
($1.8M). While the 22-year-old Beaubois does appear to have a bright
future, his upside is likely to be limited on a healthy Mavericks team
in 2010-11.
•
Travis Outlaw(notes) – Outlaw’s numbers (15.2 points, 2 threes, 5.9 boards,
0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks) weren’t much worse than Batum’s and he could end
up as the Clippers’ starting small forward if the team were to bring
him into the fold. The next time he has a steady role with any team
will also be the first.
• Charlie Villanueva(notes) – Charlie V actually wasn’t terrible
in terms of per-36s (18.2 points, 1.9 threes, 7.1 boards, 0.9 steals,
1.1 blocks) but he never approached starters’ minutes because of
inconsistency, injury, and the emergence of Jonas Jerebko(notes). Jerebko seems like a
lock to continue to start, so the only hope for Villanueva to see major
minutes in 2010-11 is if the Pistons are able to deal Tayshaun Prince’s(notes) expiring contract
during the off-season.
• Channing Frye(notes) – Frye was second in the league in threes (2.8)
and also managed 1.1 steals and 1.2 blocks. Clearly he won’t be under
the radar in 2010-11, but it’s worth noting that he could start at his
natural position (PF) for the Suns next season if Amar’e Stoudemire(notes) were
to opt out and go elsewhere.
• J.R. Smith(notes) – He’s basically Manu Ginobili(notes) without efficiency or
consistency. His per-36s included 20 points, 2.7 threes, 4.1 boards,
3.2 assists, 2.4 turnovers, 1.7 steals, and 0.4 blocks. But as with
Ginobili, it looks like it will take an unusual set of circumstances for
Smith to ever consistently see 30-plus minutes per game.
• Ersan Ilyasova(notes) – Inconsistency aside, there was a heck of a lot
to like here, including 16 points, 1.5 threes, 9.8 boards, 1 steal, and
0.4 blocks. There’s a good chance that he’ll be among my favorite
late(ish)-round picks in 2010-11, but we’re a long way from knowing what
the Bucks’ 2010-11 depth chart will look like.
• James Harden(notes) – Harden’s numbers were good all around (15.6
points, 1.9 threes, 5.1 boards, 2.9 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 1.7 steals,
0.4 blocks) but the team was fully committed to Thabo Sefolosha(notes) as the
starting shooting guard and designated perimeter defender. The Thunder
may be a bit more inclined to start Harden if they can upgrade their
interior defense, but it’s not likely to happen if it’s Jeff Green(notes) and
Nenad Krstic(notes) as the "bigs" once again in 2010-11.
• Ryan Anderson(notes) – Compare Anderson’s scoring
(19.1), threes (3.1), and boards (7.9) to Rashard Lewis’(notes) (15.4, 2.6,
4.8) and then take a gander at their 2010-11 salaries (Anderson $1.4M,
Lewis $19.6M). In his six starts, Anderson averaged 15 points, 2.8
threes, and 5 boards in 25 minutes. Lewis’ designation as the league’s
most ridiculously overpriced three-point specialist means he’s not going
anywhere, but Anderson’s strong play could at least lead to an
off-season trade of Brandon Bass(notes) and there would not be a drop-off in
offensive production if Lewis were to suffer an injury.
• Kevin Love(notes) – Love’s 13.8 boards edged out Dwight Howard for the top mark in the category and he also managed 17.6 points, 0.7 threes, 2.9 assists, 2.5 turnovers, 0.9 steals, and 0.5 blocks. Kurt Rambis apparently likes getting that kind of production in smaller batches, however.
• Andris Biedrins(notes) – Biedrins’ marks of 12.2 boards, 2.7 assists, 1.5 turnovers, 0.9 steals, and 2.1 blocks were actually pretty good considering he played hurt while Don Nelson talked trash on his game the entire time. It would have been nice to see more than 16-percent foul shooting, however.
• Marcin Gortat(notes) – How good Gortat (11.3 boards, 2.3 blocks) might be as a starting center is still up for debate, but you can’t argue that he isn’t productive when he does get a chance to play.
• DeAndre Jordan(notes) – Jordan posted a few respectable numbers (11.1 boards, 2 blocks) despite a reasonable amount of his playing time coming at power forward (read: not his natural position or a very good fit). Chris Kaman is under contract for the next two seasons, so substantial playing time will only come via a trade or major injury.
• Serge Ibaka(notes) – Ibaka’s interior defense (10.8 boards, 2.7 blocks) was a boon for the Thunder and should give the team pause when considering Jeff Green their "power" forward of the future. If Ibaka can add strength without sacrificing much agility and continues a natural progression of skills, then we could be talking about a real difference-maker.
• Hasheem Thabeet(notes) – Everyone’s favorite draft bust finished second in the league in blocks (3.6) while also posting 9.9 boards. He’s got a ways to go before he’s a complete basketball player (8.5 points, 0.5 assists, 1.8 turnovers) but he did at least show a few positive signs on the defensive end.
• Tyler Hansbrough(notes) – Injuries helped produce a small sample size, but Hansbrough’s line was solid (17.4 points, 9.7 boards, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks) and there’s a decent chance his career mark in field goal percentage will end up north of 36 percent.
• Amir Johnson(notes) – Johnson is also a free agent, so a potential Chris Bosh departure doesn’t necessarily mean that he would be next in line for the starting spot. One thing that is for certain is that his numbers looked good this season (12.6 points, 9.7 boards, 1.1 steals, 1.6 blocks), and he’s still just 22 years old. Somewhat on-topic: Johnson averaged 8.5 blocks as a high school senior.
• Paul Millsap(notes) – So long, Carlos Boozer(notes)? Millsap’s line included 15.1 points, 8.9 boards, 2.1 assists, 1.8 turnovers, 1 steal, and 1.6 blocks.
• Tyrus Thomas(notes) – Another year, another ridiculous line (15 points, 9.9 boards, 1.9 steals, 2.5 blocks).
• Some other notable numbers: Marreese Speights(notes)
(18.8 points, 8.9 boards), A.J. Price(notes) (2.5 threes), Bill Walker(notes) (2.4
threes), Chase Budinger(notes) (2.2 threes), DeJuan Blair(notes) (12.7 boards, 1.2
steals, 0.9 blocks), Jon Brockman(notes) (11.7 boards), Kris Humphries(notes) (11.1
boards, 1.4 blocks), Louis Amundson(notes) (10.7 boards, 2.3 blocks), JaVale
McGee(notes) (9.1 boards, 3.8 blocks), Eric Maynor(notes) (7.6 assists, 2.4
turnovers), Sergio Rodriguez(notes) (7.2 assists, 3.9 turnovers, 1.7 steals),
Jeff Teague(notes) (6.1 assists, 2.5 turnovers, 1.7 steals), Joel Anthony(notes) (3
blocks), James Johnson(notes) (2.1 blocks)
—
Photos
via Getty Images