It is now well-documented that Senator Graham has pulled back from co-sponsorship of a climate and energy bill. Whether Senator Graham gets assurances regarding sequencing of climate and energy before an immigration bill going to the Senate floor, and comes back into the fold over the next few days remains to be seen. But its fairly clear that a tough political hurdle to climb is now even more difficult than ever as a bipartisan vote that brings a few more Republicans on board becomes problematic without the Senator from South Carolina working his colleagues on that side of the aisle. If this is not turned around, the promise of green jobs in the US will make way to a season of litigation.
Based on best estimates of E & E, if one subtracts Senator Graham’s vote, there are at best 38 Democratic votes in favor of a climate/energy bill in the Senate. If one assumes a strictly partisan vote there are 19 Democratic “fence sitters.” If every single one of those Democrats actually voted for the bill that would result in 57 votes in favor of the bill, not the 60 necessary to overcome a Republican filibuster. There are only two other Democrats remaining after that 57, Evan Bayh (Indiana) and Blanche Lincoln (Arkansas). While Senator Bayh might be persuaded to vote for the bill given he is retiring after this session, Senator Lincoln is doubtful.
There are many tripwires on the way to this supposed 58 votes with offshore oil drilling provisions and a stripping of EPA regulatory authority under the Clean Air Act the most contentious issues for some potential Democratic votes. So even under the best of scenarios, a few Republicans led by Senator Graham are necessary to get this bill through the Senate.
Senator Graham has stuck his neck out on this climate and energy bill. But immigration reform will do more for the Democrats in turning out a base in the fall election and keeping their margins in Congress. The White House and Senator Reid face a tough decision in the next few days if they want to keep the climate and energy bill alive. Immigration is no doubt a hugely important issue and a political hot button. But if we fail to move forward now, the clean energy jobs of tomorrow will be in China while the US will be embroiled in endless climate litigation that will do nothing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.