by Brad Johnson
Cross-posted from the Wonk Room.
Yesterday, Obama’s ocean chief said that the threat of the BP oil
disaster getting caught in the Loop Current “sounds scarier than it is.”
As she was making these statements, satellites imagery showed the
Maryland-sized slick being entrained in the Loop Current, which
loops through the Gulf of Mexico and out the Florida Strait, feeding the
powerful Gulf Stream current that sweeps along the Atlantic seaboard.
Speaking with Gwen Ifill on PBS Newshour, Dr. Jane Lubchenco,
administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), admitted that the growing slick is “likely” to be entrained by
the current, but only a “very small stream” that would be “very, very
diluted,” weathered into tarballs, and “not likely to have a very
significant impact.” When queried by Ifill how big the tarballs would
be, Lubchenco squeezed her fingers together in front of her face, and
declared, “Very
little tarballs!”:
LUBCHENCO: There’s a very small stream of oil
that is a very light sheen that is getting close to the Loop
Current. And it’s likely that, at some point, it will be entrained by
the Loop Current. But that current, if there is oil entrained in it, it
would be probably nine to 12 days before that would reach the Florida
Strait. And, during that time, it gets highly diluted, parts per
billion, and it weathers naturally. And, so, any oil that
would be reaching Florida Strait might be in the form of tarballs, for
example. And whether it ever comes ashore or not would be a function of
whether there were good onshore winds bringing it. So …
IFILL: You say tarballs, you mean [softball-sized] tarballs or
[human-sized] tarballs?
LUBCHENCO: Probably little, very little tarballs.
Watch it:
“By the time the oil is in the loop current,” Lubchenco concluded,
“it’s likely to be very, very diluted. And, so, it’s not likely to have a
very significant impact. It sounds scarier than it is.”
NOAA—the agency responsible for measuring and predicting the extent
of the oil disaster—completely
failed to predict the entrainment of a huge band of the slick into
the Loop Current on May 17. NOAA is not currently publishing any maps or
predictions of subsea extent of the dispersed oil plumes.
Meanwhile, yesterday tarballs the size of softballs were found washed
up on Key West. According to news reports, at least some of the tarballs
come from the Deepwater Horizon disaster, which means that the
leading edge of the oil disaster reached the Loop Current eight to ten
days ago.
Related Links:
U.S. bans more Gulf fishing as oil fears grow for Florida
A new oil rush endangers the Gulf of Mexico and the planet
10 ways MMS makes FEMA look good
