Today the United States has 94,000 U.S. troops serving in Iraq and President Barack Obama’s plan is to remove 44,000 of them in 15 weeks time.
Yet a delay in forming Iraq’s new government following the March 7 elections is causing concern for U.S. officials.
Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Sunni Ayad Allawi are the two leading contenders to be the next prime minister, and both are arguing they have the right to form the next government. The concern is that a Maliki government could leave Sunnis feeling slighted, while an Allawi government could lead to Shiite militias reactivating.
Meanwhile violence in Iraq has increased in recent months. The latest example was a coordinated attack by three suicide bombers on a soccer field in the Shiite-dominated town of Tal Afar that killed at least 10 people and wounded 120. Al Qaeda insurgents with Sunni ties are being blamed for the attack.
Incidents like these, along with uncertainty about the next government, leave some to question if the deadline is feasible. “It’s going to be difficult,” one military official told Fox on the condition of anonymity. “Large movements always come with increased risk and not since the Iraq surge have we seen the Army attempt to move such a large number of soldiers,” this official said.
Even the Iraq surge in 2007 doesn’t amount to the effort this drawdown is going to take. This Presidential deadline calls for 44,000 troops to leave in 3 and half months, while the surge moved in 30,000 troops over a 3 month period.
The Army claims it can move 25,000 troops in 4 weeks.
But according to some in the Pentagon moving that many troops so quickly comes with inherent risks. “Instead of moving 5 bus loads of troops with security, we’ll have to move 15,” this military official told Fox. That translates to bigger targets. “You also run the risk of an emboldened adversary who ramps up his efforts to attack.”
The top U.S. Commander in Iraq, General Raymond Odierno, has said he is fully committed to drawing down to 50,000 by the end of August. His chief spokesman, Major General Steven Lanza, says the U.S. is on track to meet the troop goal, and it is important to remember progress that’s been made. “Two years ago, the Iraq government and the people here were on brink of civil war, in terms of sectarian violence,” Lanza said. “We have not seen these people revert back to sectarian violence. We have not seen the people lose faith in the Iraqi security forces. We have not seen this government fracture.”
Senior military sources say adjusting the 50,000 troop deadline has not been raised with the President because there is still time to do it successfully. But these sources say if in June some of the key hurdles have not been met, then it will be up to the President to press on or adjust.