A guest post by Ben Tulchin, President and Founder of Tulchin Research, a leading polling and strategic consulting firm.
Yesterday the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released poll results about the California water bond. These results vary wildly from the poll Tulchin Research conducted back in February.
Our February 2010 poll showed the water bond losing big—with 55 percent of likely voters indicating they would vote no on the proposed $11 billion bond.
To me, this was an indication that the water bond is in deep trouble. No California bond measure has ever won statewide that started with a majority against it. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters across California, asking respondents to share their opinions after reading the official title and summary as it will appear in voters’ handbook*.
Recently, the PPIC poll asked a question about the water bond which we believe has been misinterpreted to suggest there may be majority support for the water bond, so we wanted to set the record straight.
PPIC found that seven out of 10 voters (70%) feel that a “water package”, which includes general reforms as well as the water bond, is “important”, with 42 percent saying it is “very important” and another 28 percent indicating it is “somewhat important”.
Why do these polls vary so much? Well, it's all in how you ask the questions…
While the PPIC results are interesting, this question fundamentally differs from the question we asked in our own survey.
The Tulchin Research poll asked about the bond as it will appear in voters’ official handbooks, with the real price tag ($22 billion – principal and interest) and whether or not they would vote yes to support the bond or no to oppose it. This is a true ballot test that we have done hundreds of times to measure support for a ballot measure and have found it to be a very accurate measurement of how voters will vote for an initiative.
In contrast, the PPIC poll asked about a “water package” that includes water conservation, clean up and recycling, and restoring the Delta, with the bond thrown in at the end. Here is the question, with conservation listed up front and the price tag at the end:
“The governor and legislature recently passed a water package that includes water conservation requirements and plans for new water storage systems, water clean-up and recycling, and a council to oversee restoration of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. This package includes a proposal for an $11.1 billion bond measure to pay for water projects. How important is it that voters pass the bond measure?”
Note that the question goes on to ask, “How important is it to pass the bond” – not whether people support or oppose the policy package or the bond.
The bottom line is that it is hard to interpret what exactly the results for the PPIC survey question mean, since the question has so many different components. At the least, it suggests to me that Californians feel water is an important issue facing the state, particularly water conservation, clean up and recycling. However, I don’t think the PPIC poll question tells us anything about how voters are, in fact, going to vote on the water bond, since it does not measure support or opposition directly.
In sum, in assessing these different polls on the water bond, I believe that voters do feel water is an important issue facing California, but, based on our poll results, they do not feel prepared to spend $22 billion and put our state deeper in debt at a time when California continues to face a budget deficit.
*Tulchin Research conducted the survey on behalf of the campaign opposing the bond measure.