Is the massive oil spill that could wreck the Gulf Economy a black swan event?
BP keeps a 600-page Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response Plan, with maps to show how far the oil could spread, what environmental regions it could devastate, and how quickly the company could deploy those controversial dispersants (via Shreveport Times).
Of course, the actual oil spill response has been pretty disappointing. It turns out BP analysts were lying to themselves about how bad it could get.
BP GOM facilities
Worst case spill range
Worst case spill range #2
Worst case spill range — seabed map
Worst case spill range #3
Chemical dispersant plan
Chemical dispersant plan #2
Threatened regions
Threatened regions #2
Threatened regions #3
Estimated response time: Florida
Estimated response time: Mississippi & Alabama
Estimated response time: East Louisiana
Estimated response time: West Louisiana
Estimated response time: Texas
Environmental risks
Environmental risks: Florida
Environmental risks: Louisiana
Environmental risks: Texas
Which Coast Guard office to call when a rig goes down
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