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MUST SEE Chart: Multimedia Unemployment Map by County – cool site, scary chart – from American Observer.net – hattip Susan Kulakowski
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A better way to identify recessions – In an era of rampant conspiracy theories and mistrust of institutions, many have been sceptical of the National Bureau of Economic Research decision process with respect to identifying the start and end of recessions. … To address this issue, James Hamilton from UC San Diego developed an index that uses the GDP data to “measure” the probability of the economy being in recession at a particular time. … – Sober Look Blog
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Double dip warning – Paul Krugman – I’ve never been fully committed to the notion that we’re going to have a “double dip” — that the economy will slide back into recession. But it has been clear for a while that it’s a serious possibility, for two reasons …. The chances of a relapse into recession seem to be rising. … – NY Times
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Chart of the Day – Today, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) decreased by 11,000 in November — the smallest decline since the recession began at the close of 2007. … As today’s chart illustrates, the current job market has suffered losses that are more than triple as much as what occurs at the lows of the average recession/job loss cycle…. –
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Employment Rebound – The jobless recovery has ended. The unemployment report came in at 10% versus an estimate of 10.2%. The major change was an increase in temp hiring in November for the holiday season – good comments – Surly Trader
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WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010 – Investors are likely to be increasingly concerned about rate increases over the coming months due to the much better than expected non-farm payrolls report. Using the last few recessions as a reference point it is likely that equity gains could become increasingly difficult to come by as the Fed is pressured to remove their accommodative stance and other programs are wound down. – The Pragmatic Capitalist