Retail sales are negative – … Further, adjusted for inflation (now deflation), “real” discretionary retail sales declined 7.86% since November 2008. … – Paper Economy Blog
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Aftermath of Financial Crises – Plan B Economics
Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University) and Carmen Reinhart (University of Maryland) recently prepared a paper examining the aftermath of financial crises. They found three common characteristics:
1. Asset market collapses are deep and prolonged
2. Banking crises are followed by big declines in output and employment.
3. Government debt explodes by an average of 86%. – has details – Plan B Economics
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Eurosclerosis Is U.S. Diagnosis After Dodging Japan Stagnation – By Rich Miller and Michael McKee – The U.S. … end up with a dose of eurosclerosis: chronically high unemployment in a growing economy. … Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, forecasts that the jobless rate will rise to 10.75 percent by the middle of 2011 from 10 percent now. … – Bloomberg
Nations May Need to Cut Deficits Before Recovery, Moody’s Says – By Matthew Brown – … “It is very likely that most governments will not have the luxury to wait until 2012 to start cleaning up public finances,” Moody’s strategists led by Pierre Cailleteau in London wrote in the company’s sovereign-risk outlook for 2010, released today. The year “2010 will probably see the inflection point in highly accommodative polices,” he wrote, without singling out any specific country. … – Bloomberg
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Video – WealthTrack: Niall Ferguson – Implications of America’s exploding debt – Posted by Prieur du Plessis – Investment Postcards from Cape Town
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Nations’ mounting debts worry global investors – By Anthony Faiola – … With big banks returning to health, the financial woes of entire nations have emerged as the biggest threat to the global economy. Though vows of swift action in Athens eased turbulent bond markets on Friday, analysts continued to warn of concerns even in pillar nations such as Britain. … – Washington Post
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Why It May Take Almost Seven Years for Unemployment to Reach Five Percent – By Mark Thoma – CBS Moneywatch