As heads of state begin to arrive, the mood remains quite anxious in Copenhagen. Significant amounts of negotiating text still remain in brackets and unresolved. Clearly political level help is necessary. Information suggests that in fact high level talks began in the past few days from respective capitals. There will be little time for informal negotiations once all key heads of state arrive, so ministerial negotiations will need to continue in parallel as it is unrealistic to expect all nuances of climate policy text to be taken care of at the highest level. Heads of state will only be asked to address the bigger picture issues: targets & timetables for reductions, finance and a timeline for achieving a legally binding agreement.
Connie Hedegaard, the Danish President in charge of the UN meeting, resigned as a procedural matter today and will be replaced by Danish Prime Lars Loekke Rasmussen who will be responsible for shepherding heads of state towards a political agreement. There is confusion on the way forward as once again a higher level political text is emerging from the Danes with a lack of clarity on how it links the working group negotiations text. It was a similar move by the Danes last week with the now infamous "Danish Leaked Text" that halted negotiations for a full day. The G77 and China are vocal today with their displeasure on any delinking of negotiating text processes from a political agreement text. But time is short and there is no threat to suspend negotiations as of this moment.
Environmental non-governmental organizations under the umbrella of the Climate Action Network believe three key things must occur for the high level portion of the COP to succeed:
- The US is too focused on legal wrangling. Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama must take the negotiations out of this defensive stance.
- China needs to step up, and become part of the international response not just provide a pledge to do things domestically.
- The EU needs to increase its level of ambition, going to 30 percent reductions below 1990 levels in the medium-term and put forward a long-term financing proposals.
In plenary today, heads of state have begun to make a series of speeches to set the stage for final negotiations. While most have stayed with generalities, the most constructive engagement came on the issue of finance from the Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, speaking on behalf of the African Union. Zenawi set a positive tone stating “we are not here to take moral high ground but to negotiate.” For many observers this represents an important change in tone that could help repair the North-South divide that has poisoned the Copenhagen negotiations at times. Likewise the White House confirmed President Obama spoke with Zenawi just a few days ago. Prime Minister Zenawi presented a concrete way forward on the contentious issue of climate finance for developing countries:
- A fast action fund of at least $10 billion 2010-2012, placed in a trust fund composed of an equal number of donors and recipients. 40 percent earmarked for Africa. The African earmarks should be managed by the African Development Bank and the fund should launch no later than mid-2010.
- Longer-term financing should start by 2013 and reach $100 billion annually by 2020 and include creative mechanisms to raise funds including Special Drawing Rights from the International Monetary Fund.
Zenawi said that Africa’s scaled back expectations are designed to achieve reliable funding and a seat at the table in the final days of negotiation. Yet he also warned that this more flexible position should not be confused with desperation as “Africa will not accept a political agreement that is empty words.” Whether one agrees with the positions put forward by the Prime Minister or not, they do represent a sign of practicality, compromise and specificity that will be required to get a deal done.