While some are saying that France’s “three strikes” law has been delayed until April due to data protection issues, others are reporting that the law is in effect as of January 1st, and people should start getting “warning” messages soon. That same article quotes a French senator who believes that 95% of people will “finish with that bad usage” after the second warning message they receive, but others figure what’s more likely is that people will just move on to other ways of accessing files — ways that can’t easily be tracked. My guess is that like when Napster was shut down or with Sweden’s IPRED law, there may be a temporary bounceback in sales, but as more people learn of ways to go back to accessing music for free in ways that are less likely to be caught, they will do so. Quickly. As much as the entertainment industry and some politicians have trouble comprehending this, you can’t stop what technology allows.
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