From the print edition:
Giannoulias, Kirk continue to lead Senate races
Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows undecided voters could still swing Feb. 2 primary
By Rick Pearson, Tribune reporter
State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias entered the final days of the
campaign for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination with a significant
advantage over rivals Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman, but undecided
voters could still swing the election, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
Republican Senate contender Mark Kirk held onto a wide lead over
little-known challengers, but a third of GOP primary voters were still
undecided with the Feb. 2 primary looming.
The statewide poll conducted Jan. 16 to 20 shows candidates in both
parties have yet to sway large numbers of voters in a nationally
watched race for the seat formerly held by President Barack Obama.
Giannoulias was backed by 34 percent of Democrats, while 19 percent
supported Jackson, the former Chicago Urban League president, and 16
percent supported Hoffman, the former Chicago inspector general. The
poll of 601 likely Democratic voters has an error margin of 4
percentage points.
About a quarter of Democrats were undecided, leaving room for the
contest to tighten as candidates make their final appeals for support.
Two other contenders, Chicago attorney Jacob Meister and Burr Ridge
radiologist Robert Marshall, continued to show only 1 percent support
each.
Giannoulias, a wealthy banking heir who won his first bid for statewide
office four years ago, and Jackson, a former top aide to ousted Gov.
Rod Blagojevich, saw their support increase slightly from a similar
poll in early December. Hoffman, a former federal prosecutor, showed
the biggest gain — 7 percentage points — since the Dec. 2 to 8 survey.
But Hoffman remains known to just half of voters statewide, similar to
Jackson, while Giannoulias has been able to enjoy greater name
recognition through his state treasurer’s post. Despite Hoffman’s
attempts to criticize Giannoulias over controversial bank loans at the
family’s Broadway Bank and a $150 million loss in a state college
savings fund, the state treasurer has not seen a drop in job approval
and favorability ratings. He has used his financial advantage to run TV
ads aimed at drowning out negative attacks from opponents.
Jackson, the lone African-American contender in the Democratic contest,
has the support of 48 percent of black voters, which has helped keep
her virtually even with Giannoulias among Chicago voters. But Jackson’s
percentage of black support has not increased significantly since
December, while Giannoulias’ backing from African-Americans has roughly
doubled to nearly a quarter of the black vote.
Giannoulias also holds a healthy edge over his rivals of 2-to-1 or better among suburban Cook County and collar-county voters.
Jackson has not raised enough money to mount an aggressive TV ad
campaign. Hoffman has largely used debates to contend that as Democrats
try to keep the seat Blagojevich was accused of trying to sell, he is
the only major contender not associated with the taint of the former
governor.
The contest has largely been focused in the Chicago area, where the top
contenders live, and nearly half of the voters outside the six-county
region remain undecided — virtually unchanged from six weeks ago.
On the Republican side, Kirk, a five-term North Shore congressman,
holds a commanding advantage over Hinsdale businessman Patrick Hughes,
47 percent to 8 percent. None of the four other contenders in the GOP
race — Kathleen Thomas, Don Lowery, John Arrington or Andy Martin — had
more than 3 percent.
In December, Kirk was supported by 41 percent of likely GOP primary
voters, while all of his rivals had 3 percent support or less. In
January, 35 percent of Republican primary voters were still undecided
in the contest, including nearly half of downstate voters and nearly 40
percent of those who say they are very conservative.
Already known to more than 90 percent of Republican voters in the
Chicago area, Kirk has improved his name recognition outside the region
in the last six weeks, jumping from 44 percent to 71 percent. Yet
nearly 4 in 10 downstate voters don’t know enough about him to rate him
favorably or unfavorably. Hughes remains unknown to nearly half of the
state’s GOP voters.
Kirk maintains strong backing in the Chicago area with support from 61
percent of GOP voters in Cook County and 56 percent in the collar
counties.
Hughes has sought to cultivate support from disaffected Republicans and
others through the "tea party" movement critical of higher taxes and
spending and big government, citing Kirk’s initial support for
cap-and-trade legislation to limit carbon emissions. Kirk, a social
moderate, has since said he would not vote for such legislation in
representing the entire state.
More than half of GOP voters said they agreed with the tea party
movement, including nearly 70 percent of those who describe themselves
as very conservative. But that hasn’t translated into support for
Hughes. The survey found Kirk being supported by 48 percent of
Republicans who said they backed the tea party movement while Hughes
got only 10 percent support.
While one-third of likely GOP primary voters said they mostly agree
with Kirk on the issues, nearly a quarter of GOP voters said they
believe he isn’t conservative enough — a percentage similar to six
weeks ago.
Copyright © 2010, Chicago Tribune