(This post originally appeared on the author’s blog.)
Monday’s very strong reading in the ISM manufacturing data has many market pundits beating their chests over the v-shaped recovery in the U.S. economy. Many of these pundits (most of whom completely missed the collapse) remain delusional. By almost any metric of the real economy this is anything but a v-shaped recovery. Not only is the stock market still 28% below its all-time high (no v there), but the data from the real economy still shows that the majority of Americans confront a very tough environment. The following four charts from the St. Louis Fed succinctly tell the story:
Industrial Production – No V here:
Real income – No V here:
Employment – No V here:
Real retail sales – No V here:
So, is this a v-shaped recovery? Only if you’re a banker:
Source: DB, St. Louis Fed
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See Also:
- Why The Housing Bust Aftermath Means A V-Shaped Recovery Is Impossible This Year
- Retailers: No Way Is A V-Shaped Recovery Possible In 2010
- No V-Shaped Recovery Says NY Fed President Dudley