One of the surprising bright spots in global commodity markets over the past few weeks has been lumber, a commodity that you would think would be in agony, given the sad state of the U.S. home market. Instead, raw lumber prices are up more than 25% this year, according to Jon Markman of Markman Capital Insight.
Markman says that producers have cut back so much on their harvesting and cutting that even meager demand can send prices upward. It’s far too soon to hail the higher prices as a sustained trend, but even a modest rise in lumber prices would come as good news to Canada’s beleaguered forestry industry.
Some observers think the recent increase could signal the beginning of a broader thaw in the U.S. housing market.
Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that lumber prices tend to be a good leading indicator of U.S. single-family home sales. If that relationship continues to hold true, it’s good news for the stocks of U.S. homebuilders such as D.R. Horton Inc. and Toll Brothers Inc.
Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post
Photo: Plantation workers tie logs to load a forest train at the lumber storage yard in Jilin Province, China. (China Photos/Getty Images)