by Bill McKibben
This essay was originally published on TomDispatch and is republished here with Tom’s kind permission.
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Twenty-one years ago, in 1989, I wrote what many have
called the first book for a general audience on global warming. One of
the more interesting reviews came from The Wall Street Journal. It
was a mixed and judicious appraisal. “The subject,” the reviewer said,
“is important, the notion is arresting, and Mr. McKibben argues
convincingly.” And that was not an outlier: around the same time, the
first president Bush announced that he planned to “fight the greenhouse
effect with the White House effect.”
I doubt that’s what the Journal will
say about my next book when it comes out in a few weeks, and I know
that no GOP presidential contender would now dream of acknowledging
that human beings are warming the planet. Sarah Palin is currently
calling climate science “snake oil,” and last week the Utah
legislature, in a move straight out of the King Canute playbook, passed
a resolution condemning “a well organized and ongoing effort to
manipulate global temperature data in order to produce a global warming
outcome” on a nearly party-line vote.
And here’s what’s odd. In 1989, I could fit just about every
scientific study on climate change on top of my desk. The science was
still thin. If my reporting made me think it was nonetheless
convincing, many scientists were not yet prepared to agree.
Now, you could fill the Superdome with climate-change research data.
(You might not want to, though, since Hurricane Katrina demonstrated
just how easy it was to rip holes in its roof.) Every major scientific
body in the world has produced reports confirming the peril. All 15 of
the warmest years on record have come in the two decades that have
passed since 1989. In the meantime, the Earth’s major natural systems
have all shown undeniable signs of rapid flux: melting Arctic and
glacial ice, rapidly acidifying seawater, and so on.
Somehow, though, the onslaught against the science of climate change
has never been stronger, and its effects, at least in the U.S., never
more obvious: Fewer Americans believe humans are warming the planet. At least partly as a result, Congress feels little need to consider
global-warming legislation, no less pass it; and as a result of that failure, progress toward any kind of international agreement on climate change has essentially ground to a halt.
Climate-change denial as an O.J. moment
The campaign against climate science has been enormously clever, and
enormously effective. It’s worth trying to understand how they’ve done
it. The best analogy, I think, is to the O.J. Simpson trial, an event
that’s begun to recede into our collective memory. For those who were
conscious in 1995, however, I imagine that just a few names will make
it come back to life. Kato Kaelin, anyone? Lance Ito?
The Dream Team of lawyers assembled for Simpson’s defense had a
problem: It was pretty clear their guy was guilty. Nicole Brown’s blood
was all over his socks, and that was just the beginning. So Johnnie
Cochran, Robert Shapiro, Alan Dershowitz, F. Lee Bailey, Robert
Kardashian et al. decided to attack the process, arguing that
it put Simpson’s guilt in doubt, and doubt, of course, was all they
needed. Hence, those days of cross-examination about exactly how Dennis
Fung had transported blood samples, or the fact that Los Angeles
detective Mark Fuhrman had used racial slurs when talking to a
screenwriter in 1986.
If anything, they were actually helped by the mountain of
evidence. If a haystack gets big enough, the odds only increase that
there will be a few needles hidden inside. Whatever they managed to
find, they made the most of: In closing arguments, for instance,
Cochran compared Fuhrman to Adolf Hitler and called him “a genocidal
racist, a perjurer, America’s worst nightmare, and the personification
of evil.” His only real audience was the jury, many of whom had good
reason to dislike the Los Angeles Police Department, but the team
managed to instill considerable doubt in lots of Americans tuning in on
TV as well. That’s what happens when you spend week after week dwelling
on the cracks in a case, no matter how small they may be.
Similarly, the immense pile of evidence now proving the science of
global warming beyond any reasonable doubt is in some ways a great boon
for those who would like, for a variety of reasons, to deny that the
biggest problem we’ve ever faced is actually a problem at all. If you
have a three-page report, it won’t be overwhelming and it’s unlikely to
have many mistakes. Three thousand pages (the length of the latest
report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)? That pretty
much guarantees you’ll get something wrong.
Indeed, the IPCC managed to include, among other glitches, a
spurious date for the day when Himalayan glaciers would disappear. It
won’t happen by 2035, as the report indicated—a fact that has now
been spread so widely across the Internet that it’s more or less
obliterated another, undeniable piece of evidence: Virtually every
glacier on the planet is, in fact, busily melting.
Similarly, if you managed to hack 3,000 emails from some scientist’s
account, you might well find a few that showed them behaving badly, or
at least talking about doing so. This is the so-called “Climategate”
scandal from an English research center last fall. The English
scientist Phil Jones has been placed on leave while his university
decides if he should be punished for, among other things, not complying
with Freedom of Information Act requests.
Call him the Mark Fuhrman of climate science; attack him often enough and
maybe people will ignore the inconvenient mountain of evidence about
climate change that the world’s scientific researchers have, in fact,
compiled. Indeed, you can make almost exactly the same kind of fuss
Johnnie Cochran made—that’s what Rep. James Sensenbrenner
(R-Wis.) did, insisting the emails proved “scientific fascism,” and
the climate skeptic Christopher Monckton called his opponents “Hitler
youth.” Such language filters down. I’m now used to a daily diet of
angry email, often with subject lines like the one that arrived
yesterday: “Nazi Moron Scumbag.”
If you’re smart, you can also take advantage of lucky breaks that
cross your path. Say a record set of snowstorms hit Washington, D.C. It
won’t even matter that such a record is just the kind of thing
scientists have been predicting, given the extra water vapor global
warming is adding to the atmosphere. It’s enough that it’s super-snowy
in what everyone swore was a warming world.
For a gifted political operative like, say, Marc Morano, who runs the Climate Depot website,
the massive snowfalls this winter became the grist for a hundred posts
poking fun at the very idea that anyone could still possibly believe
in, you know, physics. Morano, who really is good, posted a link to a
live webcam so readers could watch snow coming down; his former boss,
Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), had his grandchildren build an igloo on
the Capitol grounds, with a sign that read: “Al Gore’s New Home.” These
are the things that stick in people’s heads. If the winter glove won’t
fit, you must acquit.
Why we don’t want to believe in climate change
The climate deniers come with a few built-in advantages. Thanks to
ExxonMobil and others with a vested interest in debunking
climate-change research, their “think tanks” have plenty of money,
none of which gets wasted doing actual research to disprove climate
change. It’s also useful for a movement to have its own TV network,
Fox, though even more crucial to the denial movement are a few
right-wing British tabloids that validate each new “scandal” and put it
into media play.
That these guys are geniuses at working the media was proved this February when even The New York Times ran a front page story,
“Skeptics Find Fault With U.N. Climate Panel,” which recycled most of
the accusations of the past few months. What made it such a glorious
testament to their success was the chief source cited by the Times:
one Christopher Monckton, or Lord Monckton as he prefers to be called
since he is some kind of British viscount. He is also identified as a
“former advisor to Margaret Thatcher,” and he did write a piece for the
American Spectator during her term as prime minister offering his prescriptions for “the only way to stop AIDS”:
… screen the entire population regularly and … quarantine all carriers of the disease for life. Every member of the population should be blood-tested every month … all those found to be infected with the virus, even if only as carriers, should be isolated compulsorily, immediately, and permanently.
He speaks with equal gusto and good sense on matters climatic—and now from above the fold in the paper of record.
Access to money and the media is not the only, or even the main,
reason for the success of the climate deniers, though. They’re not
actually spending all that much cash and they’ve got legions
of eager volunteers doing much of the internet lobbying entirely for
free. Their success can be credited significantly to the way they tap
into the main currents of our politics of the moment with far more
savvy and power than most environmentalists can muster. They’ve
understood the popular rage at elites. They’ve grasped the widespread
feelings of powerlessness in the U.S., and the widespread suspicion
that we’re being ripped off by mysterious forces beyond our control.
Some of that is, of course, purely partisan. The columnist David Brooks, for instance, recently said:
“On the one hand, I totally accept the scientific authorities who say
that global warming is real and it is manmade. On the other hand, I
feel a frisson of pleasure when I come across evidence that contradicts
the models … [in part] because I relish any fact that might make Al Gore
look silly.” But the passion with which people attack Gore more often
seems focused on the charge that he’s making large sums of money from
green investments, and that the whole idea is little more than a scam
designed to enrich everyone involved. This may be wrong—Gore has
testified under oath that he donates his green profits to the cause—and scientists are not getting rich researching climate
change (constant blog comments to the contrary), but it resonates with
lots of people. I get many emails a day on the same theme: “The game is
up. We’re on to you.”
When I say it resonates with lots of people, I mean lots of
people. O.J.‘s lawyers had to convince a jury made up mostly of black
women from central city L.A., five of whom reported that they or their
families had had “negative experiences” with the police. For them, it
was a reasonably easy sell. When it comes to global warming, we’re
pretty much all easy sells because we live the life that produces the
carbon dioxide that’s at the heart of the crisis, and because we like
that life.
Very few people really want to change in any meaningful way, and
given half a chance to think they don’t need to, they’ll take it.
Especially when it sounds expensive, and especially when the economy
stinks. Here’s David Harsanyi, a columnist for The Denver Post:
“If they’re going to ask a nation—a world—to fundamentally alter
its economy and ask citizens to alter their lifestyles, the believers’
credibility and evidence had better be unassailable.”
“Unassailable” sets the bar impossibly high when there is a
dedicated corps of assailants out there hard at work. It is true that
those of us who want to see some national and international effort to
fight global warming need to keep making the case that the science is
strong. That’s starting to happen. There are new websites and iPhone apps to provide clear and powerful answers to the skeptic trash-talking, and
strangely enough, the denier effort may, in some ways, be making the
case itself: If you go over the multi-volume IPCC report with a fine-tooth comb and come up with three or four lousy citations, that’s
pretty strong testimony to its essential accuracy.
Clearly, however, the antiseptic attempt to hide behind the
magisterium of Science in an effort to avoid the rough-and-tumble of
Politics is a mistake. It’s a mistake because science can be—and, in
fact, should be—infinitely argued about. Science is, in fact,
nothing but an ongoing argument, which is one reason why it
sounds so disingenuous to most people when someone insists that the
science is “settled.” That’s especially true of people who have been
told at various times in their lives that some food is good for you,
only to be told later that it might increase your likelihood of dying.
Why data isn’t enough
I work at Middlebury College, a topflight liberal arts school, so
I’m surrounded by people who argue constantly. It’s fun. One of the
better skeptical takes on global warming that I know about is a weekly radio broadcast on our campus radio station run by a pair of undergraduates. They’re
skeptics, but not cynics. Anyone who works seriously on the science
soon realizes that we know more than enough to start taking action, but
less than we someday will. There will always be controversy over
exactly what we can now say with any certainty. That’s life on the
cutting edge. I certainly don’t turn my back on the research—we’ve
spent the last two years at 350.org building what Foreign Policy called “the largest ever coordinated global rally” around a previously
obscure data point, the amount of atmospheric carbon that scientists
say is safe, measured in parts per million.
But it’s a mistake to concentrate solely on the science for another
reason. Science may be what we know about the world, but politics is
how we feel about the world. And feelings count at least as much as knowledge. Especially when those feelings are valid. People are getting ripped off. They are powerless against large forces that are, at the moment, beyond their control. Anger is justified.
So let’s figure out how to talk about it. Let’s look at ExxonMobil,
which each of the last three years has made more money than any company
in the history of money. Its business model involves using the
atmosphere as an open sewer for the carbon dioxide that is the
inevitable byproduct of the fossil fuel it sells. And yet we let it do
this for free. It doesn’t pay a red cent for potentially wrecking our
world.
Right now, there’s a bill in the Congress—cap-and-dividend,
it’s called—that would charge Exxon for that right, and send a check
to everyone in the country every month. Yes, the company would pass on
the charge at the pump, but 80 percent of Americans (all except the top-income
energy hogs) would still make money off the deal. That represents good science, because it starts to send a
signal that we should park that SUV, but it’s also good politics.
By the way, if you think there’s a scam underway, you’re right—and to figure it out just track the money going in campaign
contributions to the politicians doing the bidding of the energy
companies. Inhofe, the igloo guy? Over a million dollars from energy and utility companies and executives in the last
two election cycles. You think Al Gore is going to make money from
green energy? Check out what you get for running an oil company.
Worried that someone is going to wreck your future? You’re right about that, too. Right now, China is gearing up to dominate the green energy market. They’re making the investments that mean
future windmills and solar panels, even ones installed in this country,
will be likely to arrive from factories in Chenzhou, not Chicago.
Coal companies have already eliminated most good mining jobs, simply
by automating them in the search for ever higher profits. Now, they’re
using their political power to make sure that miners’ kids won’t get to
build wind turbines instead. Everyone should be mighty pissed—just
not at climate-change scientists.
But keep in mind as well that fear and rage aren’t the only feelings
around. They’re powerful feelings, to be sure, but they’re not all we
feel. And they are not us at our best.
There’s also love, a force that has often helped motivate
large-scale change, and one that cynics in particular have little power
to rouse. Love for poor people around the world, for instance. If you
think it’s not real, you haven’t been to church recently, especially
evangelical churches across the country. People who take the Gospel
seriously also take seriously indeed the injunction to feed the hungry
and shelter the homeless.
It’s becoming patently obvious that nothing challenges that goal
quite like the rising seas and spreading deserts of climate change.
That’s why religious environmentalism is one of the most effective
emerging parts of the global warming movement; that’s why we were able
to get thousands of churches ringing their bells 350 times last October
to signify what scientists say is the safe level of CO2 in the
atmosphere; that’s why Bartholomew, patriarch of the Orthodox church
and leader of 400 million eastern Christians, said, “Global warming is
a sin and 350 is an act of redemption.”
There’s also the deep love for creation, for the natural world. We
were born to be in contact with the world around us and, though much of
modernity is designed to insulate us from nature, it doesn’t really
work. Any time the natural world breaks through—a sunset, an hour in
the garden—we’re suddenly vulnerable to the realization that we care
about things beyond ourselves. That’s why, for instance, the Boy Scouts
and the Girl Scouts are so important: Get someone out in the woods at
an impressionable age and you’ve accomplished something powerful.
That’s why art and music need to be part of the story, right alongside
bar graphs and pie charts. When we campaign about climate change at 350.org,
we make sure to do it in the most beautiful places we know, the iconic
spots that conjure up people’s connection to their history, their
identity, their hope.
The great irony is that the climate skeptics have prospered by
insisting that their opponents are radicals. In fact, those who work to
prevent global warming are deeply conservative, insistent that we
should leave the world in something like the shape we found it. We want
our kids to know the world we knew. Here’s the definition of radical:
doubling the carbon content of the atmosphere because you’re not
completely convinced it will be a disaster. We want to remove every
possible doubt before we convict in the courtroom, because an innocent
man in a jail cell is a scandal, but outside of it we should act more
conservatively.
In the long run, the climate deniers will lose; they’ll be a
footnote to history. (Hey, even O.J. is finally in jail.) But they’ll
lose because we’ll all lose, because by delaying action, they will have
helped prevent us from taking the steps we need to take while there’s
still time. If we’re going to make real change while it matters, it’s
important to remember that their skepticism isn’t the root of the
problem. It simply plays on our deep-seated resistance to change.
That’s what gives the climate cynics ground to operate. That’s what we
need to overcome, and at bottom that’s a battle as much about courage
and hope as about data.
Related Links:
Gore’s climate remedy must match diagnosis
Lindsey Graham’s dilemma, part one: How ACES got dealt a poor hand
Sen. Inhofe’s latest attack is on climate scientists, not just science
