Spreck Rosekrans is an Economic Analyst at EDF.
In perhaps what will be the most anticipated water supply forecast in California history, the Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation today released its preliminary water supply forecast for 2010. The Bureau projects that it will be able to deliver full contract amounts to most of its contractors, including senior agricultural users in both the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys, as well as contractors along the Stanislaus River and in the Friant Division. Municipal contractors north-of-Delta are also expected to receive 100% while those south-of Delta are forecast to receive a 75% allocation.
Everybody’s attention however, is on the lowest number. The Bureau projects a contract allocation of only 30% to Central Valley Project south-of-Delta “Agricultural Service” contractors, including the politically powerful Westlands Water District. It is essential to understand that this 30% allocation is based on the "most likely" forecast. If the remainder of the winter is exceptionally dry, these contractors could receive only 5% of their contractual maximum. California’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, has indicated that she intends to pursue legislation that would suspend provisions of the Endangered Species Act unless the Ag Service Contractors receive 38-40% of their contract entitlement in 2010. Today's forecast indicates that Ag Service contractors will in fact reach the 40% target with the additional supplies that are expected to be purchased from other sources in the San Joaquin Valley. Senator Feinstein has not specified whether the 40% target must be met solely with Reclamation's Deliveries from the Delta or whether the additional acquired water will count as well.
No doubt, this is a tough issue. We at EDF are sympathetic to the needs of farms along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley (and throughout California) but we will oppose any efforts to diminish the Endangered Species Act provisions currently in place to protect fisheries in the Bay Delta. We support the Biological Opinions issued pursuant to the ESA that limit the degree to which the lower San Joaquin River is allowed to run backward for the first half of the year in order to protect salmon, sturgeon, Delta smelt and other fish at risk of extinction. And like Congressman George Miller, we do not believe politics should trump science.
It may not be fair that the cutbacks in exports disproportionately affect a group of farmers and communities that, having depleted their groundwater basin, have come to rely so heavily on the Delta as its primary source of supplies. But it is also not reasonable to blame environmental restrictions when other sources of water are not made available to the west side.
It is important to note that Delta exports account for a minor portion of the water used by agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley and Tulare Basin. Most agricultural lands (see attached map) in California do not depend at all on exports from the Delta and many of those that do are accorded higher priority than the CVP Ag Service contractors. As the graph below shows, the amount of water dedicated to ESA compliance in 2009 is a small part of the total amount of water used in the region. The challenge and solution is to find other ways to provide water where it is needed while respecting existing water rights and the ESA.
We agree with economists such as Richard Howitt (UC Davis), Jeffrey Michael (UOP) and David Sunding (UC Berkeley) that California’s conflicts over water can be greatly diminished by expanded use of markets. In the San Joaquin Valley, a better market for that water which is already extracted from the environment would provide incentives for improved efficiency and greater agricultural production. But, as evidenced by today’s announcement, without viable markets, impacts fall disproportionately on selected communities that have few alternatives.