Climatewire: A major new U.N. economic report out this week finds climate change will 
wither Africa’s agricultural output by at least half, making new coping mechanisms critical to the continent’s survival.
But, the study finds, adaptation measures could cost between 5 and 10 percent of continental gross domestic product, putting many of the solutions out of Africa’s economic reach.
While Africa will be the most affected by climate change … it is the least able to finance mitigation and adaptation measures,” the authors wrote. “There are limited resources available to the international community as a whole, and Africa in particular, for adaptation and mitigation.”
The report, published annually by the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa and the African Union Commission, was launched yesterday Lilongwe, Malawi. This year’s theme is focused on promoting high-level sustainable growth to reduce unemployment.
While the impacts of climate change are not a focal point, the authors note that rising global temperatures are a serious threat to the continent’s investments in water storage, irrigation and rain-fed agriculture. The authors call on the international community to deliver more financing to African countries to help cope with the impacts, and point to potential economic advantages Africa might reap in developing its own low-carbon energy sources.
Some agriculture yields could be cut in half
The study cites the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 report, projecting that yields from rain-fed agriculture would drop as much as 50 percent in various African countries. By the 2080s, it predicts the number of undernourished people will increase by as much as 50 million people to reach about 240 million.
The projections are far more dire than ones found by World Bank economists, who also noted that agriculture-reliant Africa “sees a close association between rainfall and GDP growth.” But the report forecasts that agricultural output could fall about 16 percent by 2080.
Either estimate, economists say, has dire implications for food security. Meanwhile, biodiversity losses of 25 to 40 percent by the end of the century could shatter livelihoods for the 400 million Africans whose livelihoods rely on forest products. Urban dwellers won’t be safe, either. Scientists project increased coastal flooding could be severe for Africa, where an ever-growing population is projected to be living in coastal cities “where flooding will be more frequent and intense.”
‘Huge’ resources gap
The costs of protection will be steep. The report estimates sub-Saharan Africa needs an average of $18.1 billion annually to mitigate climate change, the third-highest figure after East Asia and the Pacific ($25 billion) and Latin America and the Caribbean ($21 billion).
While adaptation costs as a share of GDP are expected to decline over time in all regions — which the authors point to as a sign that as countries grow they gain more ability to adapt — sub-Saharan Africa has the highest share of adaptation costs as a share of GDP.
“Thus, boosting economic growth is imperative for enabling adequate resource allocation to advanced adaptation capacity,” they wrote, and noted a “huge gap” between the resources needed and those already made available. The authors argued that sub-Saharan Africa’s low level of development has something in its favor: It gives Africa the opportunity to pursue sustainable development by embracing low-carbon growth.
Last year, world leaders vowed at a U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen to provide poor countries $30 billion annually by 2012 for climate adaptation and to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020.