Very quietly the NL East has turned into an intriguing division. All five teams have winning records, every team has obvious strengths and weaknesses, and every fan base has something to look forward to as the summer approaches. The Phillies looked like a shoo-in winner two months ago, but perhaps it’s time to reopen the argument.
Philadelphia’s offense shouldn’t be a problem as the season goes along, but right now this lineup can’t get out of its own way. The Phils have been shut out three times in four games and the other result in that mix was no treat – eight bagels, followed by three meaningless runs in the ninth. And it’s been an interesting mix of pitchers doing it to the defending NL Champs; Daisuke Matsuzaka(notes) and Tim Wakefield(notes) held the Phils down on the weekend, and R.A. Dickey(notes) and Hisanori Takahashi(notes) have posted zeroes the last two days. Good luck finding a Cy Young contender in that mix.
Takahashi’s Wednesday turn (6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K) had the Citi Field faithful buzzing; it’s time to put him under the microscope. He had a good-not-great resume as a longtime starter in Japan, which enabled the Mets to get him dirt cheap this winter. He’s already 35 and the team had modest expectations for him into the season; some felt he’d settle in as a left specialist, and many figured he wouldn’t make the team out of spring training.
His fastball tops out in the high 80s but he’s got excellent feel for his off-speed pitches; he drove the Phillies crazy with his changeup. And he’s shown he can consistently miss bats, both in the bullpen (where he was for six weeks) and in the rotation (12 scoreless innings against the Yankees and Phillies over the last week). No matter how you’re doing it, 44 strikeouts over 38 innings puts you on the mixed-league radar.
"He’s a great pitcher with great instincts," Jerry Manuel said of Takahashi Wednesday. "He had great command of his pitches tonight."
It all sounds nice, but there’s a logical con argument to Takahashi as well. He’s got an unusual motion with a hitch in the middle; you have to assume batters will get more comfortable with him as the season goes along. His Japanese career had its share of ups and downs; in four of the last six seasons his ERA was 4.13 or higher. It might be unrealistic to expect him to be anything past a back-of-rotation, six-inning pitcher.
I’ll sign off on Takahashi at San Diego next week; the Padres have yet to face him and they’ve struggled against left-handed pitching (.675 OPS). Takahashi long-term, that’s anyone’s guess. If I were doing a fresh Shuffle Up and Deal for starting pitchers tonight, I’d probably slot him in the $7-8 range.
Are you down with Takahashi, or is this fool’s gold? Feel free to discuss in the comments; I’ll be back in a little bit with 700-900 additional words, exploring the Wednesday baseball slate.