Author: Serkadis

The Primal Blueprint, as our good readers know, is founded on the principle of evolutionary biology. This certainly applies to our view of what’s appropriate or not in terms of nutrition.  In short, what our long time ancestors ate during the course of 2 million+ years, we’re still designed to eat. Even the last 200,000 years of hunting and gathering, from a physiological standpoint, trumps the comparatively short 10,000 or so years since the Agricultural Revolution, when humans commenced widespread farming practices and prepared grains as a significant part of their diet.

An article published in this month’s Science Magazine presents archeological evidence that, according to its author, challenges this accepted timeline. A number of readers have written me about this story. Here’s one letter among the bunch….

Mark,

Please help me make some sense to this: Stone Age diet included processed grains

I’m a crossfitter in Colorado and most of the gym keeps a Grok diet and are confused about this article. Does this open the door to other minimally processed grains?

Let me give you the gist. Julio Mercader of the University of Calgary examined a variety of tools (scrapers, grinders, points, flakes, and drills) he and others retrieved from an excavation site in Northwest Mozambique. Based on dating of surrounding sediment layers, Mercader estimated the age of the oldest tools to be approximately 100,000 years old. Some 80% of the tools he found tested positive for sorghum starch residue, which – he says – suggests that sorghum was used as a food source at the time. Other residues found on the tools included African wine palm, African potato, the false banana, pigeon peas, and wild oranges.

Let’s suppose that Mercader’s dating estimates are correct. Let’s also suppose that the tools Mercader tested had indeed been used to prepare food, as the presence of other food residues suggest. First off, it doesn’t necessarily follow that the sorghum was also used as food. Tools, for prehistoric humans (if not for moderns as well) needed to serve multiple purposes, supporting not just food preparation but shelter construction and other daily living tasks. As one archeologist skeptic, Curtis Marean of Arizona State University in Tempe, explains, grasses were regular parts of “bedding” and “kindling.” Another critic, Huw Barton from the University of Leicester, questions Mercader’s assumption that the sorghum had been used for food based on the curious presence of the residue on tools not associated with food preparation, including drills.

However, the biggest stumbling block on the way to Mercader’s theory is sheer inefficiency. Just because evidence exists that they could, doesn’t mean that they did – with any regularity, if at all. I’m with critics of the findings like Marean and Loren Cordain, who argue that the full sequence of finding, collecting, transporting, processing and baking any kind of grain wouldn’t have been worth the effort for the nominal nutritional benefit gained. Make no mistake, the use of grains for food isn’t as simple as pulling and popping the seeds in your mouth. Even if you attempt to harvest the seeds by hand, a “tedious” process as Cordain notes, you’re still looking at a fairly lengthy processing. Raw, fully intact grains are indigestible for humans. The necessary preparation process involves – minimally – roasting (a relatively inadequate option) or fine grinding and baking (a better but more intensive method). Nothing from the excavation site shows any seed gathering tools like “animal skin containers” or baskets/pottery (too early for this time), as Cordain explains. Furthermore, there is nothing present at the site to confirm any kind of cooking preparation. As provocative as it is, it’s scientifically too big of a leap to make with any certitude.

Finally, even if the people of the Ngalue region did actually eat the sorghum as Mercader believes, there’s a big difference between suggesting grains were a significant and regular source of our ancestors’ diet 100,000 years ago and saying they were merely occasional – and probably desperation-induced – fruits of foraging labors. In times of scarcity, pre-Agricultural humans probably resorted to less nutritionally efficient means of “gathering.” It’s called the survival instinct, and it’s of little surprise that they might have been moved to a certain degree of ingenuity when their life depended on it. However, when the group was able to relocate or when traditional foods were in good supply again, logic dictates that they would have returned to their staple diets. The evidence supporting the use of the sorghum for food is relatively scant and virtually nonexistent when it comes to the gathering, processing and preparation of any significant supply. While Mercader’s research promps speculation to what an isolated group of early humans could have attempted on a small and likely very temporary scale, it doesn’t in any way rewrite the historical timeline on agricultural development – or evolutionary nutrition.

You know where I stand on Mercader’s study. I’m interested to hear what you all have to say about it. Shoot me your thoughts, and thanks as always for your great questions and comments. Keep ‘em coming!

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Related posts:

1. Dear Mark: Visting Family – Primal Compromises and Grain Alternatives
2. Why Grains Are Unhealthy
3. Dear Mark: Don’t Call it a “Diet”

Filed under: Classics, Etc., Videos

Neither Santa Claus nor the Grinch showed up for Saab faithful over Christmas, as the troubled automaker remains in limbo, with General Motors not releasing any further announcements over the holiday about the fate of several eleventh hour bids for its Swedish Patient from Spyker and others.

That silence hasn’t stopped fans of the marque from mobilizing on the Internet, as they’ve done everything from start a WordPress blob petition urging readers to boycott GM if they let Saab go under to penning support letters and/or eulogies for the fallen brand. One such individual, David Blumberg, has gone so far as to create an original song, Griffin Up! and he’s created a video montage using both current and historical footage of the brand to show why he feels the brand is worth saving. Even if you’re not a fan of the brand (or the soundtrack), the video footage provides a good reminder of what Saab has added to the global automotive discourse, and it’s worth taking for a spin if only to see footage of the sublime Aero X concept or the official Saab stunt driving team or a rally-prepped 9-3 Viggen tearing up Pikes Peak.

A final resolution of Saab’s fate is expected by New Year’s, but while your waiting, you can click through to the jump to view Blumberg’s handiwork for yourself. Thanks for the tip, GPG!

[Sources: I Won’t Buy From GM; YouTube]

Continue reading VIDEO: Griffin Up! Saab supporter creates mash-up in support of brand

VIDEO: Griffin Up! Saab supporter creates mash-up in support of brand originally appeared on Autoblog on Mon, 28 Dec 2009 11:31:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Completely unsurprising, Google is facing more and more resistance and scrutiny as it continues to get into new markets and increases its dominance in the ones it is already present. Very recently, Google has announced its acquisition plans of mobile advertising company AdMob for the hefty of $750 million. It would be the biggest deals in the advertising field for the company after the acquisition of DoubleClick for $3.1 billion in 2008. Last week though, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) asked for more details on the deal and has prolonged the review period. Now, a couple of consumer groups are reaching out to the FTC to block the deal with concerns over anti-trust and privacy issues.

“[W]e know that closer scrutiny has been one consequence of Google’s success, and we’ve been talking to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission over the past few weeks. This week we received what’s called a “second request,” which means that the FTC is asking for more information so that they can continue to review the deal,” Google originally responded to the extended scrutiny period.

At the time Google was confident that despite the delay due to the increased review period, which it rightly attributes to the company’s success, the deal would go through and didn’t believe there were any big stopping blocks. Even if the deal does go through, the process may bogged down for severa… (read more)

Perhaps they, and the other whining “centrists” should retire if the Senate is too hard for them.

Last week one of my patients went to refill a Valtrex prescription, and was offered generic valacyclovir for the first time.  It made him nervous, so he requested I write a “brand-name only” script.

I confess the existence of a generic formulation of valacyclovir — which according to the PharmD here has been available for several months — was news to me. (Generic acylcovir and famciclovir* have been available for years.)

And while there is no reason to suspect generic valacylcovir will have any unusual issues related to efficacy or toxicity compared to the branded version, this Times article reminds us that this is not always the case:

Joe Graedon, who has been writing about pharmaceuticals for three decades and runs a consumer advocacy Web site, the People’s Pharmacy (peoplespharmacy.com), was 100 percent behind generics for many years.  “We were the country’s leading generic enthusiasts,” he told me recently. But over the last eight or nine years, Mr. Graedon began hearing about “misadventures” from people who read his syndicated newspaper column.

What follows are some anecdotal experiences and opinions — largely from the psych, neurology, and cardiology fields — about the potential dangers of even slight differences in bioequivalence or excipients between branded and generic drugs.  For even more of the same, read the comments section here.

Which brings me back to my patient:  Since he’s taking the Valtrex for an unusual reason (recurrent HSV-related meningitis), and since he’s willing to pay extra for the branded version, I went ahead and wrote the “brand name only” script.

My thinking?  Let’s see what a year or so of experience with generic valacyclovir brings us when used for more typical indications before making the switch.

(*Why isn’t this spelled “famcyclovir”?)

Updated Tuesday, 12:35 am ET: Well…wow. The Bears won a game on Monday night. Didn’t see that comin’. That’s two wins in eight weeks for Chicago. Hunter Hillenmeyer(notes) and Devin Aromashodu(notes), please accept the game balls. This post was originally written assuming a Minnesota win, but Chicago’s victory changes a few things below. Edits have been made. I will happily accept your abuse. Read on…

OK, so Week 16 won’t officially end until the Vikings have annihilated LOST to the Bears on Monday night. But those of you who decide fantasy championships in Week 17 need to begin the process of determining which players are safe and which are not in the title round. (Just for the record, we do not endorse Week 17 championships. We simply acknowledge their existence). Know your playoff scenarios, gamers.

Below you’ll find a quick sweep of the NFL’s elite teams, with an eye toward start/sit potential. Many marquee names are risky plays. Let’s review: 

• The Colts (14-1) have already demonstrated that they will not risk the health of the notoriously fragile Peyton Manning(notes) in a late-season contest when home field advantage is clinched. Don’t be fooled by the 191 consecutive games; Manning is a delicate flower. We’re clearly going to get a second helping of Curtis Painter(notes) in Week 17 at Buffalo. Running back Donald Brown(notes) is a player of interest facing the NFL’s worst run defense, but Joseph Addai(notes) isn’t. Austin Collie(notes), yes. Reggie Wayne(notes) and Dallas Clark(notes), no. Don’t expect another 40 minutes of game time from Indianapolis starters.

• The Chargers (12-3) are locked into playoff position as well, having clinched a first round bye. Head coach Norv Turner has declared, "Every single guy is going to prepare to play next Sunday [vs. Washington]," but preparation won’t necessarily mean playing time:

Turner said that after Friday’s practice the coaching staff will decide who plays against the Redskins. By the time the Chargers play a meaningful game, it will have been three weeks since some of them were in a game. For some, it will have been four weeks or more.

But there are those among them who need it, and while Turner said his plan is fluid, it is almost certain some players won’t face the Redskins.

If you’re excited by the prospect of Billy Volek(notes) handing off to Jacob Hester(notes) and Mike Tolbert(notes), then prepare for fireworks. If instead you’ve been relying on LaDainian Tomlinson(notes), then seek alternatives.

• The Patriots (10-5) secured a division title on Sunday when they steamrolled Jacksonville. They’re guaranteed a home playoff game and the AFC wild card picture is too murky for New England to handpick a future opponent. The Boston Globe argues that rest is in order for Week 17, just like 2005:

No reason to risk Brady’s health, or the well-being of Vince Wilfork(notes), Ty Warren(notes), or anyone else on the roster who’s even marginally nicked. And it’s not hard to figure the reason. Without Brady or Wilfork, this team isn’t going anywhere, and the margin of error is thin enough that the slightest player attrition could spell the end in the playoffs. … Warren said after yesterday’s win over the Jaguars that a motivating factor for him to play was to get the division wrapped up, and give the team the leeway to make the decision next week on his availability.

In all likelihood, Tom Brady’s(notes) caddy Brian Hoyer(notes) will make an appearance at Houston. Good luck sorting out the current New England backfield pileup. Sammy Morris(notes) surged past fumble-prone Laurence Maroney(notes) in the Pats’ RB hierarchy in Week 16, but every back on the roster, except perhaps Fred Taylor(notes), should get a cameo in the regular season finale. 

• The Bengals (10-5) will face the Jets on Sunday night in the final game of Week 17. That gives them an opportunity to choose their opponent for the first round of the playoffs, if they care to do it. But even if Cincinnati were involved in a must-win contest, the matchup with New York would obviously be messy. The Jets’ defense has allowed the fewest total points per game this season (15.7), the fewest passing yards (163.3), and the ninth fewest rushing yards (100.4). 

• Arizona (10-5) has clinched the NFC West, and only a total collapse by both Minnesota and Philadelphia will position the Cardinals for a bye. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt received an outstanding effort from his team in the Week 16 mauling of the Rams; there’s little chance he’ll put anything interesting on tape next week against Green Bay if the Vikings lose to the Giants in the early game on Sunday, then the Cards will obviously go full-tilt in the afternoon. But if the Vikes beat New York, Arizona won’t have a shot at a bye.

Which brings us to this from the Arizona Republic:

Ten wins means the Cardinals can tank next week’s game against the Packers without a hint of repercussion or remorse, especially because Green Bay is shaping up as a potential first-round playoff opponent. Ten wins means the Cardinals already have reached their goals for the regular season, and the regular-season finale will be nothing but a glorified exhibition.

If it becomes an exhibition, you have to expect an unusually heavy dose of Matt Leinart(notes), Early Doucet(notes), Jason Wright(notes), LaRod Stephens-Howling(notes) and other such luminaries. The Packers sound like they intend to compete in Week 17, but they’re still looking at either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed and a road game in the playoffs.

• When Minnesota (11-4) lost on Monday night, New Orleans (13-2) officially clinched home field advantage in the NFC. The Saints will have the luxury of resting injured players next week at Carolina if they choose to, but that seems unlikely since they’re coming off an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay. The Vikings clearly have motivation to win in Week 17, although Brad Childress occasionally seems to think he’s coaching the Colts they no longer control their own destiny. 

• All of your Eagles and Cowboys are safe; those teams are facing off for the NFC East crown in Week 17. The Eagles can earn a playoff bye with a win. The Cowboys can still secure a bye if A) they win, B) the Vikings lose again, and C) the Cardinals lose or tie.

• If you’re dependent on Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers, Dolphins or Jaguars – amazingly, all of those teams are alive in the AFC playoff race – then you’re in luck. Baltimore and New York are the squads that control their own fates, and they’ll play at 4:15 and 8:30 pm ET. 

So there you go. As often happens, Week 17 is a small mess for fantasy purposes. Why some of you choose to decide your champion in such a difficult and unknowable week, I can’t say. You’re now free to explain your reasons in comments…  

—

Photo via AP Images 

Sangyup Lee, the man responsible of the 2010 Chevy Camaro design project is now leaving GM, after 10 years of service. Starting from mid-2010 he is reportedly going to join the team at VW’s California-based Advanced design studio, as chief exterior designer for VW/Audi.

The whole design story of the 2010 Camaro is such a huge example of how unexpected history can be. The car’s design is one of the best reinterpretation of a classic American motoring icon the world has ever seen. S… (read more)

Rumor has it that Lamborghini is planning a hardcore version of the Gallardo LP560-4 called the Gallardo LP570-4 SV (SuperVeloce). Insiders say that the model will be stripped down but will only push out 10 more horsepower than the base model. The front suspension will also see some work and carbon ceramic brakes are aslo expected. You can also look forward to seeing some aggressive body design cues.

Lamborghini will show dealers and VIPs the car sometime next month with a public unveiling at the 2010 Geneva Motor Show. Deliveries should begin around May.

The folks over at TeamSpeed say that the Gallardo LP570-4 SV won’t be the last version of the supercar before it goes under a redesign in 2012. A hardcore rear-wheel-drive version is also expected to debut sometime in early 2011.

– By: Kap Shah

Source: TeamSpeed

As odd as it sounds, travel delays may be lessening the damage done to my waistline this Christmas season. First, there was the Eurostar dilemma. My boyfriend was due home from university in London on December 19.

In preparation for his arrival, I bought nice French cheese and sausage and a bottle of Vouvray (a white bubbly that does not happen to come from the Champagne region). That afternoon, I got a call from a friend alerting me that all Eurostar trains had been canceled due to weather-related technical problems in the chunnel. Needless to say, the Vouvray, cheese, and sausage are all still sitting in my fridge. That night I sullenly ate a bowl of soup, easily saving myself 800 calories.

Waiting makes for less merry holiday

You may have already heard about the colossal Eurostar delays to which I’m referring. If so you already know that he did not arrive in Paris the next day, or the next day for that matter. We waited through Sunday and Monday, glued to the Eurostar site, our hope waning with each passing hour. Tuesday he decided to take action, in the form of four buses, three trains and one ferry that amounted to a 17-hour journey that got him to Paris roughly nine hours after I left to visit my family in Germany.

I had anticipated that those two days would be full of eating, drinking and general merry-making to kick off the holiday festivities. Instead, I moped around refusing to do anything fun until Eurostar got its act together. I didn’t drink any mulled wine, eat foie gras or any other holiday delicacy.

Instead, I finished off the contents of my pantry: a half dozen eggs, pasta, two clementines, a blueberry yogurt and a couple beers. While my sulking diet was far from nutritionally sound, I was not yet stuffing myself as we have wont to do at this time of year.

On Tuesday I tried to shake myself out of my frustrated stupor and get in the holiday spirit for my family’s sake. But when I arrived in Düsseldorf, everyone was still in preparation mode. Since Paris is only a 3.5 hour train ride from my Dad’s house I’m there frequently enough that I tend to be regarded as a regular member of the family more than a special guest, especially compared to my brother, who was coming all the way from St. Louis, Missouri. So, the 22nd was filled with last-minute trips to the store and a quick pasta dinner — no festive eating.

My brother was scheduled to get in the next evening after a stopover in Chicago and another in London — two of the worst spots for holiday delays this Christmas. His flight to Chicago was delayed. He missed his trans-Atlantic flight. Since these flights only leave the states in the evening, he spent just under 24 hours in the Chicago airport before leaving the next night for London.

I woke up the morning of the 23rd to my father’s voice on the phone with United Airlines trying to see if there was any combination of flights that would get Tyler to Düsseldorf before the 5 p.m. on the 24th, his new estimated time of arrival.

German traditions get tossed

In Germany, we eat Christmas dinner and open presents on Christmas Eve. But it felt wrong to start the celebration before my brother got in. Our meals seemed to reflect our worry for Tyler, all alone in Chicago, symbolically marking the fact that our family was not yet complete.

On weekends and holidays in Germany breakfast tends to be a huge meal: everyone picks and chooses from big baskets of rolls and croissants, platters of cheese and sausage, hard-boiled eggs and herbed cream cheeses. But this Christmas Eve, we ate cereal.

The night of the 23rd we didn’t eat a special meal to welcome Tyler to Europe. We went to the movies, filled up on snacks there and didn’t feel like eating a real meal once we got home.

On Christmas Eve we usually would have eaten the Christmas feast in early- to mid-afternoon, snacking on Christmas sausages and cookies in the evening, but since we wouldn’t be back from the airport with Tyler until 6ish, the meal got pushed back.

Finally at 7 p.m. on Christmas Eve the feasting began. Since Tyler’s arrival, in typical Christmas fashion, plates of Christmas cookies and other snacks have been circulating pretty much constantly. Meals have been taking place at random times because no one’s hungry at normal meal times because of all the cookies and snacks.

We’ve been glued to the couch, watching Christmas movies, drinking wine and reminiscing. Basically, the 25th and 26th have been filled with all the typical Christmas activities that make us gain weight and resolve to be healthier in the New Year. But, it’s only been a couple of days and tomorrow I’m heading back to Paris. Once the Vouvray etc., has been eaten my eating habits will probably be pretty reasonable.

Treats delayed mean less destructive eating

Though the delayed feasting was all an accident, and I don’t recommend eating only eggs and pasta or movie theater nachos, this has made me think that there’s definitely something to be said about delaying fattening pleasures.

Waiting a little bit longer for a dessert is far easier to psychologically handle than telling yourself that you will stop eating desserts completely, and thus more realistic. Holidays could easily work the same way. If we reserved the cookies etc., for one or two days and filled the surrounding days with a few more vegetables, we could potentially avoid the bulk of the catastrophic holiday calories.

(By Chelsie Yount for CalorieLab Calorie Counter News)

From the RSS feed of CalorieLab News (REF3076322B7)

Winter weather delays Christmas calories

MI rescission issues plaguing your company? MGIC, and their shareholders, received coal in its stocking after the news came out that it was being sued by Bank of America’s mortgage unit in a dispute over claims. The suit alleges that MGIC “denied and continues to deny” valid mortgage insurance claims submitted by Bank of America’s Countrywide unit. Bank of America says MGIC denied claims based on “unreasonable interpretations” of its policies. The suit seeks “declaratory relief” for interpretation of the policies.

Regardless of whether or not it is good or bad for our industry, or the debate about the timing of the announcement, on Christmas Eve the U.S. Treasury agreed to provide Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with as much capital as they need over the next three years. It is an effort to reassure the investors who bought their debt – not the securities backed by mortgages. But the Treasury also said that it would stop buying the F&F’s mortgage-backed securities and end a short-term-liquidity facility set up for both companies and for the Federal Home Loan Banks. (This does not impact the ongoing Fed purchase program.) The government took over both companies 15 months ago, and has put $60 billion into Fannie and $51 billion into Freddie versus the “old” caps of $200 billion each. Opponents say it gives F&F a blank check with no real end, but supporters say it gives mortgage investors assurance and stability.

In a story making the rounds over the weekend, Warren Buffett and his staff, along with other holders of Res Cap debt, are rumored to be in talks to buy Residential Capital, the mortgage business owned by GMAC, General Motor’s finance division. Res Cap does have quite a servicing portfolio, but still has lost $9.2 billion over the past eight quarters. Res Cap’s losses were one of the main drivers behind GMAC’s $12.5 billion government bailout.

Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. said that they repaid $45 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program. …

more news on ING RESPA policy, Union Bank, Wells wholesale, Wells correspondent, Chase, Bank of America’s correspondent group ,  rates, and joke of the day … <<< CLICK HERE

PIMCO co-chief doesn’t usually get pinned down with specific predictions, but in an interview with the AP he comes close.

—-

Homes are selling at their fastest clip in nearly three years, the unemployment rate is falling and stocks are up 66 percent since their March lows – the best performance since the 1930s.

What’s not to like?

Plenty, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of giant bond manager Pimco. The investor says the recovery may be gaining steam but is no different than a kid who eats too much candy at one of the birthday parties his 6-year-old daughter attends.

“We’re on a sugar high,” El-Erian says. “It feels good for a while but is unsustainable.”

His point: This burst of economic activity fed by government spending and near-zero interest rates will soon peter out.

As CEO at Newport Beach, Calif.-based Pimco, El-Erian, 51, oversees nearly $1 trillion in assets, more than the gross domestic product of most countries. So when he talks, people listen.

What he’s saying now:

_Stocks will drop 10 percent in the space of three or four weeks, bringing the Standard & Poor’s 500 index below 1,000 – though he’s not predicting when.

_The unemployment rate will be hovering above 8 percent a year from now.

_U.S. gross domestic product will grow at an average 2 percent or so for years to come – a third slower than we’re used to.

El-Erian and his famous partner, Pimco founder Bill Gross, are watched closely because they’ve made investors a lot of money over the years. The Pimco Total Return Fund, which at $203 billion is the world’s largest mutual fund, has returned an average 7.6 percent annually over 10 years, after fees, versus 6.3 percent for Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate fixed income index fund.

The hotshots at Pimco have made money by anticipating big moves in the economy and interest rates way before other investors. In the depths of the financial crisis last year, for instance, Pimco sold some of its Treasury bonds to panicked investors looking for a safe haven and put the proceeds into government-backed mortgages and bank debt – in time to catch the big upswing in prices of those and other riskier securities this year.

Now Pimco is once again changing tack. El-Erian says people are fooling themselves if they think all the bullish data of late means a strong recovery is in the offing. So he’s buying Treasurys and selling riskier stuff.

His bet: Investors will get scared again and want U.S.-guaranteed debt so they know they’ll get repaid.

At Total Return, government-related securities, including Treasurys and corporate debt backed by Washington, comprised 48 percent of the fund’s holdings in September. That was up from 9 percent at the beginning of the year. One of Pimco’s newest funds, the Global Multi-Asset Fund, a hybrid stock-bond offering, is 35 percent in equities now, down from 60 percent earlier this year.

Investors betting on stocks or high-yield bonds are likely to be disappointed, El-Erian says.

Markets for those securities are rallying not because people like them but because they hate the puny yields of safer investments like money markets and feel they have no choice but to buy, he says. He quips that that makes the bull market as likely to last as a forced marriage.

The danger: If stock and junk bond prices start falling, lots of investors are likely to bail, feeding the drop.

Of course, there are plenty of true believers in the bull who are not buying the El-Erian line.

James Paulsen, chief strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, with $355 billion under management, has been pounding the table for months to buy stocks. Just like in the early 1980s, the recovery will take the form of a “V,” he says. The reason: Companies have cut inventories and payrolls to the bone, so just a little revenue growth could translate into a bumper crop of profits.

El-Erian says many of the bulls don’t appreciate just how much the government props still under the economy are masking its weakness. Instead of focusing on the fundamentals today, he says, they’re looking to the past, expecting a quick economic rebound because that’s what’s happened before.

We’re trained to think the “farther you fall, the higher you’ll bounce back,” El-Erian says. “We’re hostage to the V.”

El-Erian says he learned to be open to many different views on the world (and markets) from his father, an Egyptian diplomat who insisted on reading several newspapers everyday, both on the right and the left. El-Erian had hoped to become a college professor. But when his father died, he took a job at the International Monetary Fund to support the family. He rose through the ranks, eventually becoming deputy director.

In 1999 he joined Pimco, where he quickly made a name for himself with some prescient bets on emerging markets.

One of his biggest wins: selling Argentine bonds in 2000 while they were still popular with investors. When the country defaulted the next year, the emerging markets fund that El-Erian managed returned 28 percent versus negative 1 percent for the Emerging Market Bond Index. He eventually left to head the group that manages Harvard University’s massive endowment, returning to Pimco in January 2008 in time catch the depths of the financial crisis.

El-Erian says we’ve probably seen the worst of the crisis but consumers, and not just Washington, need to start spending again for the recovery to really take hold.

He doesn’t expect that to happen soon. Like in the Great Depression, Americans are saving more and borrowing less – a shift in attitudes toward family finances that Pimco thinks will last a generation.

That, plus the impact of more regulation and higher taxes, El-Erian says, will crimp growth for years to come.

Whatever the merits of that view, Pimco is not exactly knocking the lights out right now. So far this year, the Total Return Fund has returned 14 percent, impressive in normal times but no better than average for similar funds during the rally, according to Morningstar. The 19.1 percent return for Global Multi-Asset, which El-Erian co-manages, lags two-thirds of its peers. El-Erian says he sold equities “too early” but is convinced his view on the market will prove correct – even if it strikes many as a tad too pessimistic.

“I’m calling it as I see it,” he says. “I’m not optimistic or pessimistic – I’m realistic.”

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• JPMorgan: Short The Dollar, Buy AAA CMBS, And Go Long Emerging Market Credit In 2010
• Morgan Stanley: These 10 Trades Will Make You Rich In 2010
• Goldman Sachs: Low Rates And Hot Commodity Demand Means 2010 Will Be A Monster Year

Last night I had a long ranging conversation with Amy and a pair of close friends about the singularity and the future of human and machine.  The conversation centered around the notion of consciousness and what happens if (or – in my opinion – when) non-biological entities have more reasoning and processing power than biological entities, especially if this is combined with the notion of consciousness.  We didn’t reach any conclusions, but we made an hour disappear really quickly.

I woke up to a fun blog post from one of my favorite biological entities (Fred Wilson) listing his Top Records of the Decade.  I brought up one of my favorite non-biological entities (Pandora) and created a new channel called “Fred Wilson 2000 Decade” that consisted of the artists behind these records (I find it intriguing that Fred calls them “records” instead of “albums” or “CDs” or “disks” – it definitely dates him.)  I then tweeted the Fred Wilson 2000 Decade Pandora Station and shared it with him via email.  Here’s the response I got from the non-biological entity masquerading as Fred.

From: Fred Wilson
Sent: Monday, December 28, 2009 8:36 AM
To: Brad Feld
Subject: Re: Brad Feld thought you would be interested in this station

Dear Pandora Visitor,

We are deeply, deeply sorry to say that due to licensing constraints, we can no longer allow access to Pandora for listeners located outside of the U.S. We will continue to work diligently to realize the vision of a truly global Pandora, but for the time being we are required to restrict its use. We are very sad to have to do this, but there is no other alternative.

We believe that you are in Argentina (your IP address appears to be 201.234.146.243). If you believe we have made a mistake, we apologize and ask that you please contact us at[email protected]

If you are a paid subscriber, please contact us at [email protected] and we will issue a pro-rated refund to the credit card you used to sign up. If you have been using Pandora, we will keep a record of your existing stations and bookmarked artists and songs, so that when we are able to launch in your country, they will be waiting for you.

We will be notifying listeners as licensing agreements are established in individual countries. If you would like to be notified by email when Pandora is available in your country, please enter your email address below. The pace of global licensing is hard to predict, but we have the ultimate goal of being able to offer our service everywhere.

We share your disappointment and greatly appreciate your understanding.

I know Fred is on vacation in Buenos Aires with his family.  I even know that they got hosed last night at La Cabrera.  Suddenly I was thinking about the mix of human and machine here – Pandora (machine), Geolocation (machine), my knowledge of their vacation (human), their dinner experience (human), the description of their dinner experience (written by a human, coded and transmitted by machine), and Fred’s Records of the Decade List (human, but coded by machine – the post and the music).  The level of interaction of human and machine is high, although the level of sophistication is pretty low.

In an effort to be subversive, I forwarded the email to Fred with a note that said “Wild how the music licensing stuff is stupid.”  He responded immediately with “Yup.  Rights holders fuck everything up.”  I wonder what the machines think of that?

Owing to last week’s “bomb attack bid” on a U.S. airliner, there’s going to be a whole lot more security at airports. You probably already knew this. Expect long lines, confusion, malaise, and weariness. (Good thing that the entire tech world is going to be flying to Las Vegas in a couple days for CES. Leave your gadgets at home unless you want to spend 400 hours on the metal detector line.) The Transportation Security Administration is implementing new procedures to deal with everything. Here they are.

Right, so here’s the latest directive designed to make you think you’re safe. The biggest thing I can see for the tech-minded: international flight passengers bound for the U.S. must put away all their carry-on stuff, presumably including laptops and the like, one hour prior to landing in the U.S. (No getting up to use the bathroom on that last hour, either.)

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
Transportation Security Administration

Aviation Security Directive

Subject: Security Directive
Number: SD 1544-09-06
Date: December 25, 2009

EXPIRATION: 0200Z on December 30, 2009

This Security Directive (SD) must be implemented immediately. The measures contained in this SD are in addition to all other SDs currently in effect for your operations.

INFORMATION: On December 25, 2009, a terrorist attack was attempted against a flight traveling to the United States. TSA has identified security measures to be implemented by airports, aircraft operators, and foreign air carriers to mitigate potential threats to flights.

APPLICABILITY: THIS SD APPLIES TO AIRCRAFT OPERATORS THAT CARRY OUT A SECURITY PROGRAM REGULATED UNDER 49 CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS (CFR)1544.101(a).

ACTIONS REQUIRED: If you conduct scheduled and/or public charter flight operations under a Full Program under 49 CFR 1544.101(a) departing from any foreign location to the United States (including its territories and possessions), you must immediately implement all measures in this SD for each such flight.

1. BOARDING GATE

1. The aircraft operator or authorized air carrier representative must ensure all passengers are screened at the boarding gate during the boarding process using the following procedures. These procedures are in addition to the screening of all passengers at the screening checkpoint.

1. Perform thorough pat-down of all passengers at boarding gate prior to boarding, concentrating on upper legs and torso.
2. Physically inspect 100 percent of all passenger accessible property at the boarding gate prior to boarding, with focus on syringes being transported along with powders and/or liquids.
3. Ensure the liquids, aerosols, and gels restrictions are strictly adhered to in accordance with SD 1544-06-02E.

2. During the boarding process, the air carrier may exempt passengers who are Heads of State or Heads of Government from the measures outlined in Section I.A. of this SD, including the following who are traveling with the Head of State or Head of Government:

1. Spouse and children, or
2. One other individual (chosen by the Head of State or Head of Government)

3. For the purposes of Section I.B., the following definitions apply:

1. Head of State: An individual serving as the chief public representative of a monarchic or republican nation-state, federation, commonwealth, or any other political state (for example, King, Queen, and President).

2. Head of Government: The chief officer of the executive branch of a government presiding over a cabinet (for example, Prime Minister, Premier, President, and Monarch).

2. IN FLIGHT

1. During flight, the aircraft operator must ensure that the following procedures are followed:

1. Passengers must remain in seats beginning 1 hour prior to arrival at destination.
2. Passenger access to carry-on baggage is prohibited beginning 1 hour prior to arrival at destination.
3. Disable aircraft-integrated passenger communications systems and services (phone, internet access services, live television programming, global positioning systems) prior to boarding and during all phases of flight.
4. While over U.S. airspace, flight crew may not make any announcement to passengers concerning flight path or position over cities or landmarks.
5. Passengers may not have any blankets, pillows, or personal belongings on the lap beginning 1 hour prior to arrival at destination.

AIRCRAFT OPERATOR ACKNOWLEDGMENT: The aircraft operator must immediately provide written confirmation to its assigned PSI indicating receipt of this SD.

AIRCRAFT OPERATOR dissemination required: The aircraft operator must immediately pass the information and directives set forth in this SD to all stations affected, and provide written confirmation to its PSI, indicating that all stations affected have acknowledged receipt of the information and directives set forth in this SD. The aircraft operator must disseminate this information to its senior management personnel, ground security coordinators, and supervisory security personnel at all affected locations. All aircraft operator personnel implementing this SD must be briefed by the aircraft operator on its content and the restrictions governing dissemination. No other dissemination may be made without prior approval of the Assistant Secretary for the Transportation Security Administration. Unauthorized dissemination of this document or information contained herein is prohibited by 49 CFR Part 1520 (see 69 Fed. Reg. 28066 (May 18, 2004).

APPROVAL OF ALTERNATIVE MEASURES: With respect to the provisions of this SD, as stated in 49 CFR 1544.305(d), the aircraft operator may submit in writing to its PSI proposed alternative measures and the basis for submitting the alternative measures for approval by the Assistant Administrator for Transportation Sector Network Management. The aircraft operator must immediately notify its PSI whenever any procedure in this SD cannot be carried out by a government authority charged with performing security procedures.

FOR TSA ACTION ONLY: The TSA must issue this SD immediately to the corporate security element of all affected U.S. aircraft operators.

FOR STATE DEPARTMENT: Retransmittal to appropriate foreign posts is authorized. Post must refer to STATE 162917, 201826Z Sep 01, Subject: FAA Security Directives and Information Circulars: Definitions and Handling, for specific guidance and dissemination.

Gale Rossides
Acting Administrator

Again, if you’re going to be flying in the coming days, especially if you’re coming into the U.S. from another country, prepare yourself for aggravation and uncertainty. But you’ll be safe, or at least think you are!

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A handful of sites are linking to a post on NetbookNews.de, which links to a post on a UK-based site called IBTimes titled Google Chrome OS-based netbook tech specs are out. It seems fishy and the site doesn’t get a lot of traffic in the first place but if the post ends up being credible, I apologize.

The post starts out with “the tech specs of the rumoured Google Chrome OS-based netbook are already out” followed by “tech bloggers have already begun speculating about the netbook’s specs” followed by “The Google netbook, it is reported, will run on Chrome OS…” etc. But where is this being “reported”? And is this information based on speculation by tech bloggers or actual sources? There’s a world of difference there.

Then the next paragraph begins with “It is also being rumoured that the netbook will sport…” So we have that the tech specs are “out” but all the information seems to be based on rumors. Whatever the case, here’s what we’re apparently working with:

• NVIDIA Tegra platform with ARM CPU
• 10.1-inch TFT HD-ready multi-touch display
• 64GB solid state drive
• 2GB of RAM
• Wi-Fi, 3G, Bluetooth, Ethernet, USB ports, webcam, card reader
• Subsidized at less than $300, sold directly to consumers by Google

The post then ends by saying “Now if all of these are true, it’s like getting a Ferrari for the price of a Mini Cooper.” That’s pretty much an admission that none of these specs can be officially confirmed. And let’s look at the actual plausibility of the specs.

– Subsidized at $300 or less: Maybe. Google says Chrome OS netbooks “will be in the price range that people are used to for netbooks today.” The Nokia Booklet 3G is subsidized at $300, but that’s about the top of the scale as far as pricing goes.

– Sold directly to consumers by Google: Maybe. When initially asked about Chrome OS netbook pricing, Google said “You will hear that from our partners.” Recent rumors, however, seem to indicate that Google may be seeking a hardware developer to build a Google-branded netbook. It seems odd, though, that Google would create its own netbook only to then partner with a wireless company to subsidize the price of it and that such a product would be sold directly by Google and not also in the wireless carrier’s retail locations.

– NVIDIA Tegra platform with ARM CPU: Plausible, likely.

– 10.1-inch TFT HD-ready multi-touch display: Not likely to get multi-touch for $300. If it’s indeed being subsidized, multi-touch is a possibility.

– 64GB solid state drive: This is the biggest red flag, as far as I’m concerned. Everything is supposed to be “in the cloud” with this platform. Maybe a 4GB or 8GB solid state drive. There’s no use for a 64GB drive and it’d add to the overall cost of the netbook.

– 2GB of RAM: Likely.

– Wi-Fi, 3G, Bluetooth, etc.: Plausible, likely.

Now it’s entirely possible that these could be the specs for a particular vendor that’s intent on selling a Chrome OS-based netbook, but the idea of a flagship Chrome OS netbook with a 64GB drive and subsidized price tag sold directly by Google to consumers seems unlikely.

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One thing that’s harder to find on Google than it ought to be: A guide to Google-certified consultants who can help marketers navigate their way through the vagaries of the search engine.

That’s now resolved, via Google’s “Professional Search” page, which is just a tiny bit more complicated than a conventional search. You jot down how much you plan to spend on online ads, and what kind of help you’re looking for, and it spits out a list of “Google Advertising Professionals” — search pros who’ve earned Google’s equivalent of a Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval.

That makes plenty of sense, right? It might make even more sense if Google (GOOG)  publicized the directory (which is in beta, of course). But so far it seems have kept quiet about it. I learned about it via Search Engine Land, which got tipped by Google pro Tim Cohn.

[Awesome seal of approval via genetic lorax]

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Audi announced today that it will continue to invest in new products and technologies to strengthen its lineup in the future. The Ingolstadt automaker plans to invest 7.3 billion euros ($10.5 billion USD) from 2009 through 2012.

Audi said that approximately 5.9 billion euros ($8.49 billion USD) will be invested in developing new products, optimizing of conventional driveline and the development of electric and hybrid models. By 2015, Audi plans on expanding its portfolio from 34 models to 42.

Audi said that the A1, A7, A8 and R8 Spyder will be added to its lineup during 2010. The German automaker confirmed that it will introduce its first full hybrid model, the Audi Q5 Hybrid, at the end of 2010.

Audi sold a total of 1,003,469 cars in 2008, achieving its 13th consecutive record year.

Hit the jump for the press release.

Press Release:

Audi continues to invest strongly in the future

· 7.3 billion euros total investment from 2009 through 2012
· Around 5.9 billion euros for new products and future technologies
· Number of models to increase from 34 now to 42 in 2015
· Clear commitment to Germany as a production location: around 3.8 billion euros to be devoted to the Ingolstadt and Neckarsulm plants between 2009 and 2012

Ingolstadt, December 28, 2009 – Audi will continue to invest heavily in new products and forward-looking technologies in the future: plans for 2009 through 2012 envisage total investments of 7.3 billion euros for fixed assets.

In coming years the Audi Group will continue to invest strongly in its future. Approximately 5.9 billion euros, in other words about 80 percent of its total investment in fixed assets, will be devoted to new product development, further optimization of conventional drivelines and the development of electric and hybrid models. By 2015, the Audi brand will have enlarged its product portfolio from currently 34 to 42 models. “With our planned investments in new products and mobility concepts, for example electric propulsion, we are creating a basis for our company’s future growth,” says Axel Strotbek, Member of the Board of Management for Finance and Organization at AUDI AG.

Next year Audi will launch a series of new cars. The A1, A7, A8 and R8 Spyder will be added to the product portfolio during 2010. At the end of 2010 Audi will unveil the Audi Q5 Hybrid, which will reach the market at the start of 2011 as the brand’s first full hybrid model. As Strotbek points out: “We will be in a position to finance all our planned investments from our operative cash flow.”

At the German locations and elsewhere, future policy is now being implemented: from 2009 through 2012 approximately 3.8 billion euros will be invested at the Ingolstadt and Neckarsulm plants. “This is a firm commitment to our German facilities. Audi is facing the technological upheaval in the automobile world in a farsighted way. The will to work and high qualifications of employees at our German plants are a firm foundation for the necessary changes,” states Peter Mosch, Chairman of the Audi General Works Council.

About 2.5 billion euros will be invested at Ingolstadt and about 1.3 billion euros at Neckarsulm. A new transmission and emissions center will be opened at the Ingolstadt plant, and other investment priorities will be stamping tools for the new Audi A1 and the manufacturing structures for the A3 and A4 models. The investment focus in Neckarsulm will be on the A6, A7 und A8 models and new engine-function test rigs.

AUDI AG sold a total of 1,003,469 cars in 2008 and thus achieved its 13th consecutive record year. The Company posted new record figures with revenue of €34.2 billion and profit before tax of €3.2 billion. Audi produces vehicles in Ingolstadt and Neckarsulm (Germany), Györ (Hungary), Changchun (China) and Brussels (Belgium). Aurangabad in India saw the start of CKD production of the Audi A6 at the end of 2007 and of the Audi A4 in early October 2008. The Company is active in more than 100 markets worldwide. AUDI AG’s wholly owned subsidiaries include Automobili Lamborghini Holding S.p.A. in Sant’Agata Bolognese (Italy) and quattro GmbH in Neckarsulm. Audi currently employs around 58,000 people worldwide, including 46,500 in Germany. The brand with the four rings invests around €2 billion each year in order to sustain the company’s technological lead embodied in its “Vorsprung durch Technik” slogan. Audi plans to significantly increase the number of models in its portfolio by 2015 to 42. Audi celebrates its 100th birthday this year. The company was founded by August Horch in Zwickau on July 16, 1909; he named it AUDI after the Latin translation of his surname (“hark!”).

– By: Omar Rana