Author: Serkadis

Tobias Levkovich at Citi highlights that, once again, the percentage of companies experiencing upward earnings revisions has spiked. At one point in October, 74% of companies had received higher earnings adjustments from analysts, shown by the blue line below. Yet this has eased back as of late.

Citi remains cautiously bullish on the market going forward.

Tobias Levkovich: Indeed, even the earnings revision trends that had spiked to 74% upward revisions back in October have moderated back to about 64% of late (see 6 Figure 15) and things may be setting up for a January rally as strong earnings reports and pre-announcements emerge. Indeed, the very recent slight “panic” readings are supportive of a rally within the next six months. Thus, we perceive that there are mixed signals and markets can move higher on such uncertainty early in 2010.

Other sentiment indicators aside (Citi goes through a long list of them to arrive at the above conclusion), while earnings revisions have spiked recently, it may not be cause for alarm… yet. Most upward revisions so far are likely corrections of the overly bearish estimates analysts made during the end of 2008 and early 2009.

Nobody wants to see a huge spike in earning revisions already baked-into stocks, it’s surely a red flag worth investigating, but at the same time it’s not automatically bad news. For example, for the U.S. economy as a whole, it’s comforting to know that many companies have higher earnings expectations today than six months ago.

(Via Citi Investment Research, ‘The Late Year Attitude’, Tobias Levkovich, 24 December 2009)

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See Also:

• Citi: Sentiment Slips Into Panic Mode
• CHART OF THE DAY: Investor Sentiment Rebound Could Be A Bearish Sign
• Big Jump In Consumer Sentiment

Filed under: Gaming, Software, iPhone, App Store

Our friends over at Touch Arcade have put together their list of the best iPhone games of 2009, and if you happened to unwrap an iPod touch or an iPhone yesterday, that’s as good a place as any to start hunting for your favorite games. Spider: Secret of Bryce Manor [$2.99, iTunes link] topped their list, and we agree that it’s an excellent showcase for original iPhone software (there’s also a promo version if you want to try the gameplay for free).

Other than that, there’s a few of our favorites missing from the list (no Ramp Champ? No Galcon Labs?), but there are plenty of terrific games to download and play on into 2010. It’s been a fantastic year for iPhone gaming — if you haven’t yet jumped in and checked out some of the best the platform has to offer, what are you waiting for? Get downloading!

TUAWTouch Arcade picks their favorite iPhone games of 2009 originally appeared on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Sat, 26 Dec 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Safety, Toyota

You know what they say about life at the top… Toyota will probably add a few more bittersweet reminiscences to that pile of axioms once it recovers from the beating it’s currently taking.

The automaker has responded to the recent Los Angeles Times article concerning its safety record by issuing a statement and posting the entire e-mail Q&A document it gave the Times. Not surprisingly, Toyota calls the article an “attack” and says the “questions were couched in accusatory terms.” After lookig over the doc, it’s true that some of the questions posed do have the flavor of, “Have you stopped killing puppies, and if so, why?”

Others come off as a tad disingenuous, such as, “If Toyota’s position is that the problem is caused by floor mat and pedal interaction when the floor mat is improperly installed by the driver or another third party, why would the company have settled those cases?” Nearly every life form on the planet knows that companies will settle cases even when convinced of their own innocence because it’s easier than going to court, especially in the U.S. We’re not saying Toyota is innocent, and perhaps the Times had to ask, but the practice of settling lawsuits is so common that we find the question intriguing.

On the other hand, some of Toyota’s answers left us wondering. Its response regarding the steering relay rod issue in 4Runners, in which the company asserts that it’s up to a jury to decide whether Toyota knew about the problem in the U.S., struck us as odd.

At the very least, Toyota might want to dial back the polemics. Any corporation that has gone through a steadily-expanding PR nightmare can tell you we’re heading to the point where mere words, and perhaps even the historical and scientific data, do no good. Just ask Johnson & Johnson.. or GM… or Audi.

Their execs — and any decent crisis management consultant — would likely tell you that at this point, you do whatever you need to do, spend whatever you need to spend, but you get ahead of it. You can read Toyota’s statement and the complete L.A. Times Q&A after the jump.

[Source: Toyota]

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Toyota responds to the L.A. Times article originally appeared on Autoblog on Sat, 26 Dec 2009 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Less than three months after launching its popular iPhone game Tap Tap Revenge 3 as a 99-cent app on iTunes, developer Tapulous made the game free a few days ago.  The game was downloaded 300,000 times in 24 hours, overwhelming the Tapulous servers so much that the company had to turn off the online playing feature of the game.  Tap Tap Revenge is now the No. 2 most popular free game on iTunes.

Making Tap Tap Revenge 3 free is another high-profile bet on the power of in-app purchases.  Tap Tap Revenge 3, which is a Guitar-Hero style game, comes with free music tracks, but you ca also buy new tracks through the game.  So far, as a paid app, it’s sold about 1 million songs, but it believes it can sell a lot more by making the game free.  The Tap Tap Revenge series of games have been downloaded more than 20 million times, and the company claims 4 million active users per month.

Games do a better job than other categories when it comes to in-app purchases, although nearly all of the top-grossing apps in iTunes are still paid apps.  But another iPhone game company, ngmoco, is shifting its entire strategy to from paid to free games with in-app purchases.  It is not clear whether Tapulous is moving to this model as well, or launching new apps for 99 cents and then making them free once sales begin to die down.  When it launches its next game, Riddim Ribbon, we’ll see if it is paid or free.  If it is paid, one advantage of making Tap Tap Revenge 3 free now is that it can flood the market and then be used to cross-promote Riddim Ribbon.  The shelf-life of an iPhone app is so short that it makes sense to sunset a paid app early to help push sales of a newer game.

Crunch Network: CrunchBase the free database of technology companies, people, and investors

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While you do whatever it is you do on Boxing Day, and start to work off the hangover of the last couple days, take a moment of silence for the poor souls who live in countries where their governments don’t have AAA credit ratings, and can’t spend like crazy to temporarily smooth over the financial crisis.

We’re thinking, in particular, of Ireland at the moment, a country that won’t be joining its European counterparts in a recovery in 2010.

Instead its being forced to make moves more in line with an undeveloped market, struggling to pay back an IMF loan.

David Sharrock, the Ireland correspondent at the Times of London wonders whether this year was not the worst Christmas in the history of the modern Irish state.

As the sales season begins today for the first time on St Stephen’s Day, many are wondering if 2010 can be any worse than the outgoing year.

For the nation’s public sector workers, pay next month will reflect cuts of between 5 per cent and 20 per cent, levels of reduction not experienced since the 1920s, even when not taking into account previous levies imposed since the Celtic Tiger economic “miracle” began unravelling a year ago.

Ireland, the first eurozone nation to enter recession, is struggling to emerge from beneath a blizzard of frighteningly negative economic statistics after Brian Lenihan, the Finance Minister, delivered a stinging Budget this month with a target of cutting €4 billion (£3.6 billion) in spending.

It is an extraordinary reversal of fortunes. As recently as 2007, a Bank of Ireland report smugly described a country that was home to 33,000 millionaires and €800 billion of domestic wealth.

Read the whole story at the Times of London >

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• The Euro Breakup Will Be THE Story Of 2010, As Analyst Expects Ireland And Greece To Leave The Union
• The Ongoing Carnage In Ireland And Spain Shows What Life Is Like For Countries That Can’t Print Like Crazy
• Malcolm Gladwell On Ireland’s Economic "Miracle"

The holidays seem to have given a few devs the chance to update their usual projects. With news moving rather slowly and Nintendo not making much buzz in the news lately, homebrew has held the Wii and

Here’s the latest from VentureBeat’s Entrepreneur Corner.

3 key legal tips for securing angel financing – Securing angel investing can be a confusing process for the start-up owner. Scott Edward Walker, the founder and CEO of Walker Corporate Law Group, gives three legal tips to help you ensured you’re not taken advantage of.

Can a single bottle of soda decimate your company? Absolutely. – Sometimes financial decisions that are seemingly rational on their face can be disastrous – and lead to major problems for a start-up. Serial entrepreneur Steve Blank describes an effect he has witnessed several times when a seemingly small perk is removed.

Three ways to avoid dog whistle marketing – It’s hard to make an impression as a start-up –but the reason no one’s hearing you might be avoidable. Jim Nichols, senior partner at Catalyst:SF, gives a few ways to make your message stand out.

The start-up chronicles: Experiments with Twitter – Serial entrepreneur has never been a big fan of Twitter.  So as he rolls out his latest venture, he hasn’t been real optimistic about its traffic-generating prospects. But a little trial and error has shown him there might be promise after all. Here, he runs down what he did to gain followers – and how the results have been.

Your most important support staff – Good employees are important, but if your family isn’t behind you in a start-up, it’s going to be a much harder road. Frank Levinson, founder of Finisar tells of a particular Christmas that his family postponed opening gifts to help with some critical company functions.

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Filed under: Safety, Toyota

You know what they say about life at the top… Toyota will probably add a few more bittersweet reminiscences to that pile of axioms once it recovers from the beating it’s currently taking.

The automaker has responded to the recent Los Angeles Times article concerning its safety record by issuing a statement and posting the entire e-mail Q&A document it gave the Times. Not surprisingly, Toyota calls the article an “attack” and says the “questions were couched in accusatory terms.” After looking over the doc, it’s true that some of the questions posed do have the flavor of, “Have you stopped killing puppies, and if so, why?”

Others come off as a tad disingenuous, such as, “If Toyota’s position is that the problem is caused by floor mat and pedal interaction when the floor mat is improperly installed by the driver or another third party, why would the company have settled those cases?” Nearly every life form on the planet knows that companies will settle cases even when convinced of their own innocence because it’s easier than going to court, especially in the States. We’re not saying Toyota is innocent, and perhaps the Times had to ask, but the practice of settling lawsuits is so common that we find the question intriguing.

On the other hand, some of Toyota’s answers left us wondering. Its response regarding the steering relay rod issue in the company’s 4Runner SUVs, in which Toyota asserts that it’s up to a jury to decide whether it knew about the problem in the U.S., struck us as odd.

At the very least, Toyota might want to dial back the polemics. Any corporation that has gone through a steadily-expanding PR nightmare can tell you that we’re heading to the point where mere words, and perhaps even the historical and scientific data, do no good. Just ask Johnson & Johnson.. or General Motors… or Audi.

Their execs – and any decent crisis management consultant – would likely tell you that at this point, you do whatever you need to do, spend whatever you need to spend, but you get ahead of it. You can read Toyota’s statement and the complete L.A. Times Q&A after the jump.

[Source: Toyota]

Continue reading Toyota responds to L.A. Times article

Toyota responds to L.A. Times article originally appeared on Autoblog on Sat, 26 Dec 2009 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The econoguru catfighting continues, and not surprisingly, Nouriel Roubini finds himself the subject of the attack.

Owing to the fact that he’s a media superstar, and since he disagrees with a lot of the other big names on the subjects of gold and debt, he tends to receive more than his fair share of gutshots.

The lates on the attack is Jim Rogers, who was interviewed by Wall Street Cheatsheet:

Damien Hoffman: Jim, you were in the media a few times last week and I want to follow up on a few points you made. You said on Bloomberg that Nouriel Roubini did not do his homework regarding the asset bubbles about which he is now warning. Can you explain what homework he did not do?

Jim: All of it. How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as silver are 70% below their all-time high? Same for coffee, sugar, cotton, natural gas, and many more. I have a problem talking about a bubble when assets are this depressed from their all-time highs.

A bubble is when assets are screaming to new highs everyday, everyone is talking about them, and everyone owns them. Right now, virtually no one owns commodities. So for Mr. Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets.

I am flabbergasted at Mr. Roubini’s comment about bubbles because there is not a single market in the world making all-time highs except Gold, US Government Bonds, Cocoa, and the Sri Lankan stock market. That’s hardly reason to call for a bubble. So, I am most perplexed about this alleged bubble which is out there.

If an asset rises 100% in one year, that’s a great year, but not necessarily a bubble. Look at oil. It’s up huge off the bottom but nowhere near it’s old highs. Look at Citigroup. The stock is up 3 or so times off the bottom …

Damien: … and I doubt long term shareholders feel like they are in a bubble.

Jim: Exactly. And since Mr. Roubini thought oil would stay below $40 a barrel for all of 2009, I would love for him to tell me and the rest of the world exactly where are all the oil supplies because the International Energy Agency (IEA) — which has the best global data set on energy supplies — has no idea where is the oil. Mr. Roubini should tell us where this price suppressing oil supply is hidden. All the oil possessing countries in the world have declining reserves. All the oil companies have declining reserves. So Mr. Roubini must know something the rest of us don’t.

Read the whole interview >

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See Also:

• Roubini Is Wrong About The Giant Dollar Carry Trade Going Bust
• Schiff: Roubini Doesn’t Get Why Gold Is Soaring
• Niall Ferguson: Roubini Is Okay, But He’s Not As Good As Me

It is a slow post-Christmas Saturday, a perfect day for a feel-good piece courtesy of CBS News and Microsoft. The short video segment showcases the Microsoft My Phone service which, amongst other things, allows users to locate and retrieve a lost mobile phone. Watch as host Natali DelConte tosses her AT&T HTC Pure into the back of a cab as it drives straight into the heart of New York City. Laugh Be concerned when the GPS signal fails and the phone is no longer traceable, seemingly lost forever. Smile when her phone is returned to her, not through some fancy GPS locating service, but through the kindness of others who responded to her phone’s “I’m lost, call Natali” distress message. No, it’s not the caliber of It’s a Wonderful Life but for a tech blog on a Saturday, it is about as heart-warming as you can get. Video after the break

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The amazing thing about the apparent property bubble in Shanghai is literally bears all the markings of our last bubble. This is not just in terms of price, but in terms human mentality and behavior.

Families are worried they “must buy now” or they’ll “miss the boat” forever, even as shoddy developments go up empty in some parts.

Here’s another little story that should sound familiar.

Property developers are being accused of hoarding land — holding onto it, rather than building on it — on the belief that if they wait some period of time it will be more valuable when they do develop it.

This is classic behavior, and we saw it here with the homebuilders, who would purposely throttle back their own sales on the belief that if they hold any given house for another quarter (or more) they could sell it for more. For a refresher, here’s a great 2005 column from TheStreet.com in which the author blasts Toll Brothers (TOL) for filling out their communities too quickly — AKA not hoarding their land.

Anyway, it’s all happening again on the other side of the world.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Wrenching Stories On The Human Toll Of The Chinese Property Boom
• AGAIN: Chinese Man Self-Immolates To Protest Eviction
• Chinese Homebuyer Maxes Out Borrowing So As Not To ‘Miss The Boat’

If you are yearning for a HTC HD2 but do not have the device readily available to you, either due to carrier or cost, you now have the chance of winning one for free.

HTCPedia, who happen to have 4, is giving away a HTC HD2 simply for registering and leaving a comment in this thread. The contest is open to anyone around the world and they will ship worldwide.

The contest will run for two weeks and will end on Friday, January 8th, 2010 at 11:59pm Pacific Standard Time.

Winners will be announced on  January 9th, 2010.

We plan to do a HTC HD2 contest ourselves early next year, but you are going to have to work a bit harder for it than this, so why not try your luck here.

You didn’t think the whole Nook saga was over, did you? After just succeeding in delivering devices to expectant pre-orderers in time for Christmas, Barnes and Noble is today cleaning up yet another mess courtesy of its ill-prepared content servers. Judging by customer feedback on its support forums, it appears a glut of download requests over gift-giving day jammed the B&N net pipes and left a great many disappointed Nook users. All attempts at downloading an ebook yesterday — even by those who got their Nook a little earlier in the month — were greeted with a “Queued: Will complete shortly” message, which apparently remained that way until early this morning when downloading finally resumed functioning. The biggest perceived failure here, though, is the book retailer’s silence on the issue, which illustrates the importance of communicating with your customers — most people seemed tolerant of the setback once they realised they didn’t have faulty hardware.

[Thanks to all who sent this in]

Nook fails to communicate, download purchased ebooks originally appeared on Engadget on Sat, 26 Dec 2009 08:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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On Christmas Eve, when the news was assured of getting no coverage whatsoever, The White House announced that it had eliminated the maximum bailout cap for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie (FRE).

As some observers have pointed out, all the move really did was formalize what everyone has figured for decades, that the two zombie GSEs were truly organs of the federal government, and that their debts would be backed up ad infinitum.

So, why the move, and why then?

Credit analyst Edwart Pinto shares his theories.

——-

What the Treasury’s lifting of the bailout caps on Fannie and Freddie might portend for 2010

Might Treasury be taking these steps in anticipation of the following?

1.    Revisions to the flagging Homeowner Affordable Housing Program (HAMP).  Any changes will likely increase near term bailout costs to Fannie and Freddie if HAMP’s current reliance on interest reduction is replaced in part by principal reduction. The losses associated with a modification of a loan using an interest rate reduction are spread out over time while a modification using principal reduction results in taking a more immediate loss.

2.    Fannie and Freddie taking on a greater role in the near term to support their own mortgage backed securities (MBS).  Now that the Treasury’s and the Federal Reserve’s own support programs are in the process of winding down, the administration’s actions  may be preparing  Fannie and Freddie as the vehicles for continuing this support.  The Treasury’s December 24, 2009 announcement raises the portfolio limits to $900 billion each, thereby providing Fannie and Freddie with the ability on a combined basis to increase their portfolios by a total of $275 billion.  At the current rate of the Fed’s MBS purchases, this new capacity would last about 4-5 months. 

3.    Fannie and Freddie growing their portfolios on a long term basis to provide continued support to the MBS market.  Given the recent uptick in mortgage rates due to increasing Treasury rates, the lifting of the bailout caps may be designed to reassure investors in an effort to keep MBS spreads from widening relative to Treasury rates.  By providing a more open ended capital commitment, along with the greater portfolio capacity now, Fannie and Freddie are in a position to grow their portfolios early in 2010.  If the market accepts their purchases without wider spreads, then even higher portfolio dollar limits can be created with the stroke of a pen; 

4.    The administration’s announcement in February regarding the future role of Fannie and Freddie.  In a separate press release also issued on December 24, 2009 it was revealed that the executive pay packages at Fannie and Freddie do not include a common stock component.  This fact, along with the lifting of the bailout caps and the expanded portfolio capacity, may well indicate an intention to formalize Fannie and Freddie’s continued status as government agencies.  If this were to happen, Fannie and Freddie’s outstanding common stock likely becomes worthless, making it of no use as an employee incentive. .  This action would be justified by stating that Fannie and Freddie are just too important to the economic recovery to re-privatize.

5.    Increasing the demand for Fannie and Freddie’s MBS by reducing the multiplier for bank risk based capital requirements from 20% to 10%.  This action would help serve to keep spreads to treasuries narrow.  Banks would only need 0.8% risk based capital to support their holdings of Fannie Freddie MBS versus the 1.6% needed today.  The earlier noted lifting of Treasury’s capital support caps could provide the justification for this reduction in capital requirements, since it signals an increase in the government’s commitment to Fannie and Freddie.. 

The above actions would preserve and strengthen the government’s involvement and control over the country’s housing finance system and make it harder to reintroduce substantial private sector involvement later on.  They would also continue distortions in the marketplace leading to who knows what unintended consequences. Finally these steps would do nothing to deleverage the housing finance system, a key step in returning it to any degree of normality.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Edward Pinto: Why The FHA’s Internal Loss Estimates Remain Wildly Optimistic
• Edward Pinto: How Did Paul Krugman Get It So Wrong About Fannie And Freddy?
• Edward Pinto: Ending The FHA’s Continuing Nightmare Of Foreclosures

Hey guys, how’re your holidays going? I’m sure there are lots of you packing on the holiday poundage. For a few members of the gaming media, they got a little treat from Square Enix to sink their

With the A1 GP World Cup of Motorsport still in doubt for the 2010 season, several of the series’ big guns are starting to reevaluate their options for the upcoming year. Such is the case of former Formula One driver Narain Karthikeyan, who is now considering a switch to stock car racing into the NASCAR Series.

No Indian driver has ever had the opportunity to debut inside the NASCAR series in the past, which further attracts Karthikeyan into completing the move. The first step was… (read more)

There’s practically zero doubt remaining that RIM has a next-generation Tour in the works, but if you’re one of those tin foil hat wearers, you’ll be glad to know that at least one of these things really, truly exists. Boy Genius just got his paws around the Tour2 9650 (shown left), and aside from the optical trackpad replacing the trackball (and the addition of a WiFi module), there’s not much new here. Oh, except that presumably quicker CPU — we’re guessing to-be owners will dig that. We’re told that the physical size is practically identical to the original Tour, and the keyboard is still phenomenal. Care to take a look? Sure you do — hit the source link for a full hands-on gallery.

RIM’s BlackBerry Tour2 9650 gets the hands-on treatment originally appeared on Engadget on Sat, 26 Dec 2009 07:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Former Formula One manager Flavio Briatore took some time of recently and decided to relax in Malindi, Kenya, alongside his pregnant wife, model Elisabetta Gregoraci. However, paparazzi followed the two even on the Indian Ocean coast of Kenya and snapped them while enjoying a nice bathe in the sun.

Among the pictures taken, the Italian millionaire mogul was spotted trying not to fall overboard his private boat, taking a long walk on the beach, as well as showering himself down aft… (read more)