Author: Serkadis

  • Need some positive thoughts

    I don’t know if anybody can ooze some positive thoughts my way. I see them every day here, and it really helps. Sooo many of you put smiles on my face day after day after day. But I’m also involved with other local diabetics. I make friends with any I meet, and I lead a local support group. It’s a very small group, and it’s so very hard to get people to come. It’s even harder to get people to listen and to get them to do the things they need to do. People are so set in their ways.

    A couple of friends of mine are slipping, and it’s hard to watch. Dan is my age, has 1/2 a kidney left, weighs 412lbs, and shoots 40u of novarapid a meal. He’s a very talented musician – I’ll post a toob at the end. A couple of months ago he got told outright by his doc to lose 100lbs or else, so he finally decided to low-carb. He’s done well except for those oreo cookies he has to have. He calls me every few days, and we talk a lot. But he hasn’t called in almost 2 weeks now. I don’t have a good feeling about his chances.

    Wayne, a coworker, has had T2 for many years and is now insulin dependant. He’s probably a 1.5. He’s been fighting retinal hemms for the past three years. He had his second vitrectomy last week. It didn’t go well. As they sucked out the blood vessels, they pulled on the retina and caused more bleeding. It was such a mess in there. He’s scheduled to go back next month for a second cleanout if they settle down. He loves the outdoors. He hunts and fishes and drives his monstor pickup everywhere, even though he’s nearly blind. I’ve told him many times he needs to get his sugars down and to get off the fast carbs, but he can’t stand it when his sugars get below 11 mmol/l (200). He can’t give up his morning cereal, toast, oranges, apples, or his orange juice. It’s not an option. He’s as skinny as a rake and a great guy to be around. He’s had one heart attack already. I kind of hope he has another so he doesn’t have to go through what he’s going to go through with his eyes.

    No, I’m not a fan of diabetes.

    This video really doesn’t help YouTube – Tribute to Brian but there it is.

  • The healing power of oatmeal, milk chocolate

    Guest contributor: Karen Collins, M.S., R.D., C.D.N.
    Karen Collins holds a B.S. degree from Purdue and an M.S. degree from Cornell, both in nutrition. When she’s not writing or speaking, she conducts a private nutrition practice in Jamestown, New York.

    Q: How much cholesterol-lowering power can I expect from one bowl of oatmeal a day?

    The best research linking oatmeal consumption and cholesterol levels shows drops of about 10 mg/dl in LDL (“bad”) cholesterol with a daily serving of three-quarters of a cup of quick or old-fashioned oats as measured before cooking. A standard serving, according to the label, starts with a half cup of oats, so the three-quarter cup would be one and a half servings.

    This amount of oats — equivalent to three packets of instant oatmeal — provides three grams of soluble fiber. Although oats’ fiber (beta-glucan) is established as effective in lowering cholesterol, research also supports aiming for soluble fiber from a variety of sources, such as barley, legumes and many fruits.

    According to the National Cholesterol Education Program, increasing consumption of soluble fiber by 5 to 10 grams a day can decrease LDL cholesterol about 5 percent. The program’s guidelines recommend aiming for a total of at least 5 to 10 grams of soluble fiber daily, and preferably 10 to 25 grams a day.

    So if two or three bowls of oatmeal is unrealistic for you, you could reach the overall target by combining options. For example, you get 2 grams of soluble fiber from each half cup of oats (measured before cooking), 2 or 3 grams from each half cup of kidney beans or other legumes, and 1 or 2 grams from each piece of fruit or each half cup of broccoli, carrots or some other vegetables.

    The amount your cholesterol drops will likely also depend on what foods oatmeal replaces: if it means you’re omitting some unhealthy foods like bacon and sausage or doughnuts, it may lead to a bigger change in blood cholesterol than if it replaces a generally healthy choice like a bowl of shredded wheat.

    Q: I hear so much about antioxidants in dark chocolate providing health benefits. Does milk chocolate really offer nothing?

    In equal size portions with equal calories, dark chocolate provides nearly three times the total antioxidant power that you get from milk chocolate, according to United States Department of Agriculture data. Studies show that the higher the nonfat cocoa solids, the higher the antioxidant compounds chocolate contains.

    But milk chocolate’s antioxidants are also significant. In fact, the ORAC score (a measure of antioxidant power) of milk chocolate is higher than that of red grapes, blueberries, nuts or almonds if you compare equal weights of all foods.

    But that’s not a fair comparison, since you’d get many times more calories getting those antioxidants from chocolate (whether milk or dark chocolate) than from fruit. Furthermore, although nuts are concentrated in calories, they provide additional benefits beyond their antioxidants, such as fiber, protein and other nutrients.

    To maintain a healthy weight most people should limit chocolate to small amounts daily so it will only provide a fraction of a day’s antioxidant total compared to antioxidants from vegetables, fruits, whole grain, beans, nuts and other selections such as tea or coffee. Bottom line: You get more antioxidants from dark chocolate, but if milk chocolate is your preference, enjoy it and keep your focus on a balanced diet for the health benefits.

    Q: Are tonic and club soda good low-sugar alternatives to regular soft drinks and sweetened mixers?

    A: Club soda is a zero-calorie, zero-sugar beverage. However, tonic is not. Even though it does not taste very sweet, 12 ounces of tonic — with 124 calories and 32 grams of sugar (8 teaspoons) — is only slightly lower in sugar’s empty calories than regular soft drinks, which may contain from 135 to 150 calories in the same portion.

    And choosing tonic saves nothing compared to sweet mixers like Collins mix. The big calorie savings with these drinks would be drinking your tonic with just a squirt of lime or lemon and omitting the alcohol. If you’re really trying to avoid concentrated sugar and calories, stick with club soda, unsweetened seltzer and sparkling water options.

    (This article was provided by the American Institute for Cancer Research in Washington, D.C. A registered dietician is available to respond to questions about diet, nutrition, and cancer at the free AICR Hotline at 1 (800) 843-8114 during business hours.)

    From the RSS feed of CalorieLab News (REF3076322B7)

    The healing power of oatmeal, milk chocolate

  • Citi Underwriters Step In To Prevent Stock From Falling Below $3

    Citi Blind

    Interesting footnote to the disastrous Citi offering (which Bob Pisani reminds us is the biggest equity offering in US history, so that’s awesome!): the underwriters had to step in and snap up shares to prevent the stock from going below $3.

    CNBC’s David Faber reported the news just now, and it may continue to spook the markets.

    If the stock does fall below $3 — and it certainly may, perhaps even today — it will signal that the decision to let Citi repay TARP was either woefully early or woefully late.

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  • Financial Stocks Have Been Warning Of Trouble For Months

    Don’t be surprised by the surging dollar, and the absence of appetite for Citigroup (C) shares.

    Financial stocks have been acting ominously for a couple months.

    As a refresher, here’s a 3-month comparison of Goldman Sachs (GS) and the S&P 500.

    goldmanvsspchart

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  • Amateur Artist Wants To Ban All Sales Of Old Baltimore Ravens Game Films Over Logo Copyright

    Copycense points us to an ongoing lawsuit by a guy seeking to bar the Baltimore Ravens and the NFL from making use commercially of any game involving the Ravens from 1996 to 1998. At issue was that this guy claimed his logo design was copied by the team. A few years back, William Patry detailed the ridiculousness behind the original lawsuit and how it had resulted in many more ridiculous lawsuits:


    Bouchat, a security guard in Baltimore, believed that the Baltimore Ravens had infringed a design he claims to have created for the team’s logo. He sued the team and the NFL’s licensing arm. In my opinion, there was no evidence of access and the thus the case should have been summarily dismissed. In my opinion, the case was a shakedown. But, applying the fatally flawed theory of striking similarity, the case went to a jury. The jury found liability, and the Fourth Circuit affirmed in an awful decision that drew an excellent dissent by Judge King, 228 F.3d 489 (4th Cir. 2000), amended by and pet. for reh’g en banc denied. 241 F.3d 350. Judge King’s dissent is the best thing yet written on why striking similarity is inherently inconsistent with basic copyright principles, and as to the facts in Bouchat, devastating to the plaintiff’s claim and the majority opinion.

    While Bouchat “won,” he wasn’t given any money, because he had failed to register his design before it was put into use. But he’s since sued various other companies, and this latest lawsuit is an attempt to say that no one can show those old films because they use “his” logo, despite the lack of evidence of actual copying (which, if copyright were actually about copyright would be necessary). The lower court turned him down, noting that the use of the logo was incidental and fair use, but Bouchat is (of course) appealing. This is, again, in line with Patry’s analysis that this is nothing more than a shakedown. He’s not really interested in stopping the sale of these videos. He wants the team to pay him a big chunk of money so that it can keep selling the videos. This is not what copyright is intended to do, but it’s what happens when copyright law gets out of control.

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  • DIY Recipe: Peppermint Schnapps

    121709-cocoa.jpg Though we’ve already tickled your taste buds with a peppermint mocha, some might like their peppermint without a side of coffee. Instead, make your own peppermint schnapps, a perfect addition to some hot cocoa enjoyed by a warm fire this holiday season.

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  • London: Solidarity with the arrested, against police violence! Demo @ Danish embassy 4pm onwards, 17 December 2009

    from various sources, 17 December 2009: “There will be a mass demonstration outside the Danish Embassy in London in solidarity with those unlawfully arrested and detained in Copenhagen during the Climate Summit protests. Today on Thursday the 17 December from 4pm onwards. The address of the embassy is: 5 Sloane Street, London SW1X 9SR. Nearest tube Knightsbridge.

    As many people as possible need to turn up to protest at the Danish state’s appallling treatment of climate protesters and its denial of free speach. Spread the word far and wide!” more

  • Russia's DST Now Owns 5 Percent of Facebook

    With 350 million users worldwide, an estimated $500 million in revenue this year and positive cash flow, Facebook is looking pretty good at this point to any investor. The company though isn’t really looking for new capital and an IPO is still quite a way off. For a determined investor though, these problems can be overcome, and Russian investment company Digital Sky Technologies seems to be one. It bought a small stake in Facebook last summer, 1.96 percent, and then continued to acquire common stock from employees or other shareholders to the point that DST is now said to own more than 5 percent in the social network.

    Russian business newspaper Kommersant cites [translated] an unnamed inside source which claims that, not only DST now has a more than 5 percent stake, it is looking to increase it further with additional purchases. This means that DST’s stake is now three times larger than Microsoft’s, which owns just 1.6 percent purchased at a whooping $15 billion valuation.

    DST paid $200 million for its initial stake in a deal which valued Facebook at $10 billion. At the time, it had the option to purchase an additional $100 million-worth of common stock at a lower $6.5 billion valuation, coming in at $14.77 per share. It quickly gobbled up the new shares, which meant it owned a further 1.53 percent in Face… (read more)

  • Why Do We Put Candles On A Birthday Cake?

    In ancient times there was a prevalent belief that birthdays were a time of potential danger.  This originated within Greek culture, where both birth and birthdays were regarded as a time when the Gods may take your soul.  

    Consequently, when a Greek child had a birthday, s/he was given a little cake with a candle.  The gods were asked for protection and the candle was then blown out.  The Greeks believed that the smoke from the candle would carry the message to the gods and the child would be spared to continue living.

    This tradition has survived to present day culture, where candles are still placed on a birthday cake.

    Not all cultures embrace this tradition and some religious people feel that the act of ‘making a wish’ before the candles are blown out, is in fact an act of sacrilege and so they do not participate in this aspect of birthdays.

  • Jobless Claims Jump to 480,000 Come In Worse Than Expected

    pinkslip tbi

    Jobless claims jumped 7,000 to 480,000, coming in a bit worse than expected.

    This number isn’t wildly telling one way or another, except that we’re still clearly lacking signs of solid, continued improvement.

    It doesn’t seem to be affecting the market much. The market is tanking, but the surging dollar and the weak Citi offerings are likely the main culprits.

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  • The Carry Trade: Now New-And-Improved!

    Yen Dollar

    Researchers at the University of California have found that the carry-trade, whereby money is borrowed in low-yielding currencies in order to buy high-yielding ones, has actually been a pretty effective source of stable returns for those willing to do it.

    Which is peculiar given that, if it’s such a good deal, one would expect the market to arbitrage away these returns as more and more investors piled in.

    Yet beyond these researchers’ conclusion that the carry trade has been relatively successful, they also took their analysis a step further. They claim to have a model whereby the carry trade yields even more stable returns over time — by simply avoiding the large losses that can happen from time to time.

    Even if you aren’t convinced that this research could play out as well in the real world, which is usually the case, such thinking shows how the carry trade won’t go away any time soon. So don’t fight it, ride it.

    The Economist: The authors first examine returns to a simple carry trade for a set of ten rich-country currencies between 1986 and 2008. Buying the highest yielder of any currency pair produced an average return of 26 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point) per month. That would be fine, except that the standard deviation of returns, a gauge of how variable profits are, was almost 300 basis points. The monthly Sharpe ratio that measures returns against risk was a “truly awful” 0.1 (the higher the ratio, the better the risk-adjusted performance). Worse still, the distribution of monthly profits was negatively skewed: big losses were more likely to occur than windfall gains.

    No sane trader would follow a rule with such poor results. So the authors put together a far richer model to help decide which side of a currency trade to be on. It included things that are most likely to influence short-term movements in currencies, such as the change in the exchange rate over the previous month, as well as the size of the interest-rate and inflation gap between each currency. They found that all three factors mattered. Currencies that rose in one month tended to rise in the next month. Those with the highest interest rates went up most, as did currencies with high inflation (which drives expectations of further rate rises).

    These impulses can drive exchange rates a long way from their fair or “equilibrium” values. That creates the risk of a sudden reversion that could wipe out earlier profits. To guard against this, the authors added to their model a measure of how far the exchange rate has shifted from its fair value. They found that this alarm bell can sometimes turn a “buy” signal into a “sell”.

    Read more here.

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  • REPORT: Ford and Mazda clarify future relationship, still strong

    Filed under: , ,

    Click either image above for a high-res gallery

    While Ford sold most of its controlling stake in Mazda last November, the two automakers will remain close partners as the companies work together to develop new automotive systems and technologies — refuting previous reports that the two companies may be drifting apart. The announcement comes from top executives at both Ford and Mazda, which have been meeting recently to discuss further collaborations within the industry.

    A strong relationship benefits both automakers. Ford needs Mazda for its insight into manufacturing, product development and its window into the Japanese auto industry. Mazda still relies on Ford for its powertrains (which Ford will continue to provide). The recently launched Ford Fiesta and Mazda2, built on a shared platform, are another example of how the two automakers can work together. The cars were originally engineered for other markets and not intended for sale in the States. When Ford’s product strategy changed while they were under development, the two companies met and solved the critical design elements together, making each viable for the domestic market. Problems solved, the Fiesta and Mazda2 debuted at the LA Auto Show earlier this month and are going on sale next year.

    Gallery: 2011 Mazda2

    [Source: The Detroit News]

    REPORT: Ford and Mazda clarify future relationship, still strong originally appeared on Autoblog on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 08:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • Whalen: Person Of The Year, My Foot! Bernanke Has Made A “Pig’s Breakfast” Of This Whole Thing

    Ben Bernanke has been named Time’s “Person of the Year,” for his aggressive actions to stem the global financial crisis.

    “His creative leadership helped ensure that 2009 was a period of weak recovery rather than catastrophic depression, and he still wields unrivaled power over our money, our jobs, our savings and our national future,” Time’s Michael Grunwald writes. “The decisions he has made, and those he has yet to make, will shape the path of our prosperity, the direction of our politics and our relationship to the world. “

    Bernanke was clearly at center of the government’s response to the financial crisis and remains “the most important player guiding the world’s most important economy,” as Grunwald writes. By his own admission, the chairman didn’t see the credit crisis of 2008 coming and was too slow to react. Still, all but his most strident critics agree Bernanke helped prevent an even worse outcome, possibly a second Great Depression.

    But does Bernanke deserve to be “Person of the Year”?

    “Absolutely not,” says Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics. “On a personal level I have great sympathy for Chairman Bernanke but he’s made such a pig’s breakfast of this whole situation.”

    Unlike those who praise Bernanke for bringing the economy back from the brink of the abyss, Whalen says all he’s done is “saved the dealer community” from themselves by overseeing a massive taxpayer-funded bailout of the financial community.

    Bernanke “hasn’t done anything for the real economy,” the analyst says. “The only thing I see is inflation. For the average American the message they should take away from this year is this: Bernanke’s policy has insured we’ll see the purchasing power of Americans’ savings dwindle.”

    A former staffer at the New York Fed, Whalen also says Bernanke “failed miserably” in maintaining the Fed’s independence from both the banks and from politics.

    Rather than merely lending money to the Treasury, Bernanke put the Fed directly in the middle of the 2008 bailouts – most notably of AIG, Whalen recalls.

    “By taking the lead [Bernanke] undermined the Fed’s independence,” he says. “He really intervened not so much in the financial markets but in American politics. He gave Bush and Paulson a pass — they didn’t have to take responsibility for the crisis and they hand[ed] the ball to Barack Obama.”

    It is for these reasons, Whalen says, that Bernanke’s reconfirmation by Congress is not assured, and politicians on both sides of the isle are looking to reign in the Fed’s power. It’s ironic Bernanke is being lauded in the mainstream press at a time when he — and the institution he leads — are under so much pressure in Washington.

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  • Meredith Whitney Whacks Estimates On Goldman And Morgan Stanley Sending Shares Lower (GS, MS)

    meredith whitney

    It’s shaping up to be an ugly day for financials.

    In addition to Citi’s woes, we have Meredith Whitney whacking estimates on Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

    Bloomberg: The analyst, who runs Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, now projects Goldman Sachs will earn $19.57 a share in 2009, $19.65 in 2010 and $20.60 in 2011. Those were reduced from $19.95, $21.73 and $24.04, respectively.

    Morgan Stanley’s projection for 2010 was cut to $2.60 a share from $2.63, while the 2011 forecast was reduced to $2.75 from $3.28.

    Read more at Bloomberg >>

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  • CITI OFF 8%

    down arrow

    Oof. Shares of Citigroup (C) are off 8% after the company’s weak secondary offering last night.

    Watch out today, folks.

    As we noted earlier, there’s nothing more terrifying to this market than the notion that the giant cash pool out there might not be unlimited.

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  • Safe fiber optic monitoring

    With fiberview eks Engel presents a new monitoring system for converters of the d-light series
    Monitoring specified system budgets of fiber links is still a poor relation within fiber optic networks. A certain link attenuation, however, is normal and the result of the fibers’ characteristics, the number of splices and the connectors used. Also environmental influences such as temperature range and the cable laying play an important role. If a predefined limit is gone below, this is a sign of an increased attenuation and can have various reasons.

    If a recommended bending radius is not kept to, this may lead to link attenuation and losses. Others reasons could be fiber breaks, incorrect installation and dirty or damaged connectors.

    Better planning

    Monitoring system budgets does not only minimize the risk of incorrect installation, but it also guarantees the proper operation of networks through an effective organization of service.

    fiberview works similarly to a traffic light. LEDs show whether the budget for the fiber link is perfect, still tole-rable or insufficient. Without any room for interpretation, the optical signals “red”, “yellow” and “green” display the status of every optical channel. If the “traffic light” is green, everything is fine. If the yellow light is flashing, the budget is still tolerable, but already below a certain system reserve. Additionally to the LED, this pre-warning level is also signaled by a potential-free contact. If the “traffic light” turns red, however, there is a serious error such as a fiber break or the like.

    Status at first sight

    Thus fiberview ensures the proper installation of fiber optic networks since the LEDs directly show if the as-signed bandwidth is reached. This is also a great benefit during service, because the current status of the prede-fined system budgets is visible at first sight. The single signals green, yellow and red relate to clear statements. Room for interpretation has been avoided on purpose.

    Time and cost savings through pre-warning level

    A major advantage of the monitoring technology fiber-view is the pre-warning level which is signaled by the yellow LED. Thus, on-site service can be planned and carried out more efficiently before any errors occur. This results in considerable cost-savings, because the yellow signal does not have to entail a direct reaction, as it has to in case of the red one.

  • Metal Needle Valves

    The fine threads of the needle valve permit excellent adjustment for precise control of flow. The flow is restricted in both directions and is adjustable from 0 to the equivalent flow of a 0.025″ diameter orifice. The 7-turn adjustment needle valves are available in two models, the standard model and the fine adjustment model. The standard adjustment model has a pin angle of 6 degrees with 10-64 threads; the fine adjustment model has a pin angle of 4 degrees with 10-80 threads.

    The valve body is Phosphor Bronze and can be supplied with straight ports for 1/16″ ID tubing or with barbs for 1/16¨, 1/8¨, or 3/16¨ I.D. tubing. The pin is Beryllium Copper and can be supplied with a Buna-N, EPDM, or Viton o-ring. All pins have a nylon vibration insert. Valves for inline or panel-mounted applications are available; the panel-mounted needle valves are supplied with two self-tapping screws.

  • Stationary Pyrometers CellaTemp PQ 26

    CellaTemp PQ Pyrometer now available with fibre optics

    This pyrometer has the electronics housed separately from the optical sensor head. A fibre optic cable transmits infrared radiation a distance of up to 30 m. The CellaTemp PQ is available with one of two different sensor heads measuring Ø16 mm and Ø 30 mm. Due to their compact size, these sensor heads can be installed in cramped, hard-to-access locations and can withstand ambient temperatures of up to 250 °C without cooling. The fibre optic cable can be unscrewed on both sides for easy detachment. An assortment of broadband, optically corrected precision lenses is available to achieve target spots as small as Ø 1.8 mm. Because the optics are focusable, the sensor heads can be adjusted for the specific measuring distance which the application requires.

    The CellaTemp PQ’s most striking feature is its new LED display. The bright 8 mm high digits offer superb readability, allowing the operator to monitor temperatures at a distance of several meters. Whether during initial setup or running operations, the display makes it easy for personnel to verify on-site that all equipment is functioning properly.

    Due to the high-resolution digital signal processing and the latest amplification technology, this new pyrometer provides both wide measuring ranges as well as outstanding precision and accuracy.

    For the pyrometer to accommodate the specific radiation characteristics of the target material, the emissivity value can be set directly at the connection cable or remotely by means of a control system. On-site adjustment has the advantage that the emissivity setting is specifically assigned to the measuring location. The possibility of an incorrect adjustment during initial installation or after recalibration can thus be ruled out.

    The scaling of the analogue output can be adjusted by means of a USB interface. Other parameters such as emissivity, smoothing function, peak picker or diagnosis function can be PC-configured. The integrated communications software is a standard feature of the pyrometer. All that you will require to enable remote configuration is a Windows HyperTerminal and a PC without any additional software.

    Furthermore, KELLER HCW offers the CellaMevis software. In addition to setting instrument parameters, with CellaMevis the recorded temperature data can be displayed online as a curve chart or graph. The data can be saved in a CSV file, enabling further analysis using Excel or any similar spreadsheet program.

    CellaTemp PQ’s enclosure was designed to be identical to that of its forerunner series, thereby permitting the use of all existing accessories.

    With its various measuring ranges between 300 – 2500 °C, the pyrometers of the CellaTemp PQ Series are suitable for a wide variety of industrial measurement tasks within kilns, furnaces and heating equipment. These applications include glass making, steel processing, cement production and the ceramic industry.

  • PhoneArena reviews the HP Glisten

    The device of the day is the HP Glisten, and PhoneArena has just weighed in with their review of the device.  Unlike others they seem pretty positive, concluding:

    Being away from the US mobile market for some time, HP definitely has one good looking Windows Mobile smartphone that gives other similar handsets a run for their money – like the Palm Treo Pro, Samsung Intrepid and HTC Snap. Throw in features like an AMOLED touchscreen, Wi-Fi, global capabilities, and a nice portrait style QWERTY and the Glisten will surely appeal to the business user. We would’ve liked to see HP work on offering a personalized look and pales in comparison to the offerings we tend to see with other manufacturers. Nonetheless, the HP iPAQ Glisten makes for a wonderful attraction to the Windows Mobile front.

    They score the smartphone a solid 8.2.

    Read their full review here.

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  • Rosenberg: Deflation Is Reality, The Consensus View Is Garbage

    rosenberg

    David Rosenberg has put out a somewhat humble special report about the difficulty of forecasting, and what he sees everyone else forecasting for the coming year. It’s titled, provocatively, “Year Ahead, Can You Handle The Truth?”

    Here’s a chunk of it:

    Perhaps inflation is a consensus forecast but deflation is the present day reality
    and often lingers for years following a busted asset and credit bubble of the
    magnitude we have endured over the past two years.  The fact that China’s
    voracious appetite for basic materials will continue to exert upward pressure on
    commodity prices does not detract from this view, especially given the
    widespread excess capacity in the manufacturing sector and the new frugality
    that has gripped, and in many cases, been embraced by the retail sector.  Higher
    raw material prices, owing to developments in Asia as opposed to demand
    pressures here at home, will prove to be a sustained source of profit margin
    compression for many sectors and companies linked to finished consumer
    goods and sevices.

    So, much of what I have read in various Year-Ahead Reports predict corporate
    earnings, GDP growth here and abroad, interest rates and relative values of
    currencies.  As I mentioned earlier, the error term is bound to be very wide in this
    new paradigm (since WWII) of a secular credit collapse.  GDP growth in 1934
    was 10%, but the Depression wasn’t over until 1940.  

    Since 1989, the Japanese stock market has had no fewer than four 50%-plus
    rallies and there still has been no period of growth that can be called a
    sustained expansion.  Today, we have our own special set of conditions and it is
    bound to be tricky as is typical during a post-bubble credit collapse, no matter
    how intense the government reaction.  Prematurely committing to the ‘risk’ trade
    is probably going to be the most lamentable action over the next few years.
    Suffice it to say, we believe that the dominant focus will be on capital
    preservation and income orientation, whether that be in bonds, hybrids, hedge
    fund strategies, and a consistent focus on reliable dividend growth and dividend
    yield would seem to be in order.  To reiterate, I see the range of outcomes in the
    financial markets and the economy to be extremely wide at the current time. 
    But one conclusion I think we can agree on is the need to maintain defensive
    strategies and minimize volatility and downside risks as well as to focus on
    where the secular fundamentals are positive such, as in fixed-income and in
    equity sectors that lever off the commodity sector.  

    This, in turn, underscores my primary focus of favouring Canadian dollar
    based investments over the U.S. because at no time in my professional life
    have the downside risks — economic, fiscal, financial and political — been so
    low on a relative basis and the upside potential so high as is the case today. 
    The near-2,000 basis point gap this year between the TSX and the S&P 500 —
    the former leading — should be taken in the context of being just past the
    halfway point of a secular (ie, 16-18 year) period of outperformance.  Northern
    exposure never felt this hot.    

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