Author: Serkadis

  • Lack Of Seasonal Work Is The Real Reason To Question The Official 10% Unemployment Rate

    depressionjobless

    Over the weekend, a retail analyst brought this up to us, and we wanted to throw the question out to you: is the lack of seasonal temp work screwing with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s unemployment data?

    Note this line in the AP story about stock brokers competing for Christmas labor:

    Competition is especially fierce for retail jobs, in part because the industry has cut 1 million jobs since January 2008, said Davis of the National Retail Federation. Many retailers, fearing another weak holiday season, are trying to manage with leaner staffs.

    “Not only are there fewer positions, but more people are applying,” Davis said.

    That helps explain why shoppers who phone customer service at online retailer Moosejaw Mountaineering get Scott Beebe, a trained engineer with two postgraduate degrees and eight years of experience in product development for General Motors.

    In other words, employment typically swells during this time of year, and so when the BLS is making seasonal adjustments, their models might be assuming that swelling. But if it’s not actually happening this year — which is what our source thinks is the case — then the unemployment data may be understated.

    Join the conversation about this story »

    See Also:

  • Ratio pyrometer for hot applications

    Measurement technology company Micro-Epsilon has extended its range of temperature sensors with a new ratio pyrometer. The new thermoMETER CT ratio will be on display at the SPS|IPC|DRIVES exhibition in Nürnberg. The sensor is a non-contact temperature sensor, which is only dependent on the emissivity ratio but not on the absolute emissivity. The sensor measures by using two short wavelengths close to each other and forms a ratio from this. The emissivity of the target is therefore no longer required for measurements. A faultless measurement is also possible even in the case of a 95% weakening of the IR radiation due to smoke or steam. The sensor provides a measuring range of 700°C to 1,800°C at a maximum ambient temperature of 250°C without cooling and is primarily used in metal processing applications. The sensor electronics unit enables connection to Profibus, Ethernet, USB, RS232 or RS485. The thermoMETER CT ratio operates with an optical fibre between sensor and electronics. Therefore, electromagnetic radiation has no influence on the sensor. A sighting laser is projected onto the target by the lens of the sensor; this enables constant mapping of the real measuring spot size. The standard focus of the lens is at a distance of 60mm. Using an additional, variable focussing lens, the user can set the focus point between 65mm and 300mm. The pyrometer can be used as a standard single-channel IR sensor or as a ratio pyrometer.

  • Bruker announces Combined AFM and Raman Solution for Advanced Materials Research

    Bruker announces Combined AFM and Raman Solution for Advanced Materials ResearchBillerica, Massachusetts – September 22, 2009 — Bruker announces the official launch of the new N8 NEOS SENTERRA micro-analysis system that combines the Raman Spectroscopy and Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) on a single optical microscope platform.

    A comprehensive materials research investigation demands a multi-technique approach. Bruker Optics’ SENTERRA Raman spectrometer and Bruker Nano’s N8 NEOS Atomic Force Microscope was combined to allow morphological, structural and chemical analysis of the same sample area. Calibrated sample positioning allows simple and precise serial measurements, where the resultant Raman spectra is easily correlated with the AFM image.

    The N8 NEOS SENTERRA combines the flexibility of Raman spectroscopy with intuitive AFM control. Optimal stability is achieved by mounting the SENTERRA on the ultra-stable N8 NEOS base. The N8 NEOS SENTERRA provides all the same alignment-free and intuitive design of the original N8 NEOS AFM. The distinctive interferometric detection system provides accurate tip deflection values in directly in nanometers instead of voltages for more precise force control and optical microscope is the highest quality of any AFM.

    The compact SENTERRA Raman system has software selectable lasers and gratings to facilitate specific excitation wavelengths and spectral resolutions optimized for each sample. With its patented Sure_Cal® calibration technology, the SENTERRA is permanently aligned for the wavelength scale with a wavelength stability of 0.1 cm-1.

    The new N8 NEOS SENTERRA is the ideal tool for research applications and multi-user facilities, where flexibility and ease-of-use are essential prerequisites. High sample throughput and the best attainable results are guaranteed.

    Raman spectroscopy? Atomic Force Microscopy? Two questions, one answer: N8 NEOS SENTERRA. For more information, visit www.bruker-nano.de.

  • Ethernet Direct Announces FWO-800

    Ethernet Direct Corporation announces Falcon FWO-800 which is cited as the World’s First Industrial 2.4GHZ 802.11b/g outdoor wireless mesh system.
    The Falcon series FWO-800 is a cost effective layer 2 wireless mesh product. It comes with a single radio work in 2.4GHz band, 2 sets of SSID and time division for backhaul & AP operations simultaneously. FWO-800 comes with WMM option to enhance user performance and density QoS, supporting bandwidth priority to voice (VOIP) and image (surveillance/IPTV).
    The device easy to install & smart deploying for mobile applications, outdoor and indoor applications such as city area, factory, community, campus, park, hotel, mall, office.
    High Performance Wireless Technology
    • Wireless LAN IEEE 802.11b/g compliant
    • Compliant with IEEE 802.3, IEEE 802.3u, IEEE 802.11b, IEEE 802.11g, IEEE 802.11i, IEEE 802.11X, IEEE 802.11e
    • Supports radio modules 2.412~2.472 GHz
    • Operation in single radio, 2 sets of SSID, time division for backhaul & AP operations simultaneously
    • Supports wireless mesh capability with auto connection for best signal route and auto redundancy based on auto best route connection
    • Flexible software configuration through WEB GUI interface and Mesh AP Manager utility for easy management
    • Supports WMM option, enhance user performance and density QoS, supporting bandwidth priority to voice (VOIP) and image (surveillance/IPTV)
    • Strong Network Security with 64/128/152-bit WEP encryption and WPA/WPA2 function
    • Supports Power Over Ethernet Design
    To learn more about the information, please contact the Ethernet Direct Global network or visit www.ethernetdirect-tw.com

    About Ethernet Direct Corporation
    Ethernet Direct brings a control system engineering perspective to networking technology. The principals of Ethernet Direct come from process-control and PLC system backgrounds.
    The Global Ethernet Direct team covers operations from Product know-how, design implementation, quality assurance, manufacturing, logistics, sales, marketing & technical support. We are well-positioned to fulfill customers’ needs and markets’ demands by providing a great variety of tailor-made products and services. When you work with us, you will experience confidence and dependability. By choosing Ethernet Direct, you have chosen excellence & long-term commitment.

  • Higher IP rating for Sesam 800 transmitters Small and Medium

    The transmitters Sesam 800 Small and Medium has undergone further testing for IP-rating and has now been approved according to the IP67 classification.

    IP rating means degree of protection against solid foreign objects (1 st number) and degree of protection against water (2nd number).

    IP67 classification means that the enclosure is completely dust- and water protected. The water test is made by completely immersing the enclosure in water in its service position. The enclosure is immersed to the depth of one metre with the duration time of thirty minutes. Acceptance for Class IP X7 requires no water to have penetrated into the item in such a quantity, or in such a position, as to prevent satisfactory operation of the item or to present a safety risk.

    Åkerströms Björbo AB is an international company that develops, produces, markets, and services products for industrial radio remote control of cranes, work vehicles with mobile applications, door-opening systems, and locomotives. The company is a market leader in the Nordics, and its remote control solutions cover everything from small systems to sophisticated systems for complex applications.

  • Versatile Aspiration System for Safe Vacuum Disposal of Liquids

    INTEGRA Biosciences has extended its VACUSAFE aspiration system with new models for laboratories wishing to utilise an existing supply of vacuum while benefiting from many of the advantages of the internationally popular product. The new design, without integrated vacuum pump, has been priced to be affordable by almost all laboratories.

    The compact VACUSAFE makes aspiration of hazardous liquids very safe, user-friendly and flexible. Unlike most “home-made” aspiration systems, the VACUSAFE has several important safety features like the liquid level sensor and the two hydrophobic filters that block potentially dangerous aerosols. A new handle makes the carrying and emptying of the VACUSAFE waste bottle even easier than before. With a wide range of adapters, removal of liquids is possible from virtually any container.

    For laboratories looking for the flexibility of an all-in-one vacuum aspiration system the traditional VACUSAFE includes a low-noise pump, shatterproof collection bottle and a versatile hand operator. It is extremely simple to operate – switch on, set the required vacuum and start working. VACUSAFE is the laboratory aspiration system of choice for a growing range of applications where gentle and controlled vacuum removal of supernatants is required.

    The VACUBOY hand operator is a convenient tool for aspirating liquids from virtually any laboratory container – at the touch of a button and in a controlled way. Simply connected to a VACUSAFE laboratory vacuum system, the VACUBOY hand operator includes a finger activated valve that precisely regulates vacuum flow and includes a variety of aspiration adapters to suit most applications.

    Today INTEGRA innovative lab tools are widely used all around the world. More than 60 distribution-partners form a worldwide sales network providing responsive and competent services to customers. These distribution partners are supported by a highly motivated and experienced team of specialists at the company headquarters in Zizers, Switzerland and Hudson, USA. INTEGRA is an ISO 9001:2000 certified company.

    For further information on the extended VACUSAFE comfort range please contact INTEGRA Biosciences AG on telephone +41-81-286-9530 or by email [email protected]. In the USA please contact Viaflo Corporation on telephone +1-603-578-5800 or by email [email protected]

  • INTEGRA to Showcase New Products at ArabLab 2010

    Integra Biosciences has chosen ArabLab 2010 to showcase its latest products for biotechnology, pharmaceutical and clinical laboratories.

    Ernst Freydl – Marketing Director at INTEGRA commented ‘ArabLab offers us an ideal venue to meet with our customers from the Middle East, Asia / Pacific and Africa regions in particular’. He added ‘This year – visitors to Stand 225 will have the chance to see and discuss some exciting new media preparation, liquid handling and vacuum aspiration products’.

    For hospitals and life science labs involved with media preparation and processing the MEDIAJET Automated Media Filler now offers the unique flexibility for high throughput filling of Petri dishes of various sizes, Petri dishes with two compartments (biplate dishes) and test tubes of various diameters and length. Furthermore, a new integrated shaker function provides a convenient solution for pour plate applications.

    Following its recent merger with the Viaflo Corporation – Integra Biosciences AG – the inventors of the PIPETBOY – the world’s favourite serological pipetting aid – will display for the first time a complete range of top quality handheld pipetting systems offering accurate liquid handling from 0.5µl to 100ml. In addition – visitors will be able to see a new liquid handling set that significantly aids scientists in keeping their cell culture work streamlined and organised when pipetting and aspirating liquids.

    INTEGRA has also extended its VACUSAFE aspiration system for the safe disposal of liquid waste with new models for laboratories wishing to utilise an existing supply of vacuum while benefiting from many of the advantages of the internationally popular product.

    For over 20 years INTEGRA has actively marketed and supported its range of easy-to-use and productive laboratory products throughout the Middle East, Asia/Pacific and Africa using an informed network of local specialist distributors.

    For further information please visit ArabLab 2010 or contact INTEGRA on telephone +41-81-286-9530 or email [email protected]

  • Flexible Immersion Cooler

    The FTS FlexiCool® Immersion Cooler from Genevac/SP Industries Inc. provides reliable, rapid cooling capability, down to -100ºC, just where you need it.

    Benefiting from a durable, heavy-duty refrigeration system that eliminates the inconvenience and cost of handing dry ice or liquid nitrogen, the FlexiCool is designed to provide years of continuous trouble-free operation.

    With a choice of three different probe options – the FlexiCool can be configured to provide an optimised cooling system for applications that include reaction vessels, vapour trapping, parylene coating systems, laboratory dewars, differential scanning calorimeters, CCD cameras and vapour sorption analysers. The FlexiCool can also be customized to meet OEM application requirements.

    Optional digital control with RS232 interface enables precise temperature control throughout your process and provides controlling capability and data collection from a remote location.

    SP Industries is a leading manufacturer of laboratory to production scale freeze dryers / lyophilizers, centrifugal evaporators and concentrators, environmental control chambers, thermal control system, glassware washers and dryers. The company sells its products under well-known brands including Hotpack®, VirTis®, FTS™ and Genevac®. SP Industries has ISO 9001:2000 registered production facilities in the USA and Europe.

    For further information please visit www.ftssystems.com/PDF/Flexi-Cool.pdf or contact SP Industries on +1-845-687-5303 (+44-1473-240000 in Europe) or email [email protected]

  • HTC’s Q1-2 2010 roadmap leaked

    Much like last year HTC’s 2010 roadmap has leaked out again courtesy of B3l3fonte on XDA-Developers.com.  Also much like last time the pictures are not of particularly high quality, but they do include the full specs.

    HTC is set to release 3 Windows Mobile handsets in the first 6 months of 2010, the HTC Photon, HTC Trophy and HTC Tera

    htcphoton

    The HTC Photon is due to arrive in April 2010 and appears to be a low-end HTC HD2. The first Windows Mobile device with a Half-VGA screen, it has a 600 Mhz Snapdragon processor and a 3.2 inch capacitive screen.

    htcphotonspecs

     

    Also due in April is the HTC Tera, a low-end HTC Touch Pro 2.

    htctera

    The device has only a WQVGA screen and 600 Mhz processor.

     htcteraspecs

    Lastly in May 2010 is the HTC Trophy.

     

        htctrophy 

    The device  has a 3 inch capacitive VGA screen, QWERTY keyboard and features “Super Search” and comes with the tagline “I can find anything.”

    htctrophyspecs
    Read more in this XDA-Developers thread here.

    Share/Bookmark

  • Barrick Gold: Here’s Why We Eliminated Our Gold Hedges, Just As The Marked Started To Peak

    barrick gold liquidityJust last week, major gold miner Barrick Gold (ABX) announced that it had fully eliminated its hedge book, and so from here on out, its earnings would be fully exposed to the price of the metal.

    When it was announced, the stock popped, since everyone’s bullish on gold. But on Friday the gold market tanked on huge volume, sending Barick shares down nearly 9%.

    So was de-hedging the right move?

    As it happens, on December 1, the company presented at the Scotia Capital Precious Metals Conference, during which they explained some of their rationale. Let’s hope they got their timing right.

    Now, see the presentation >>

    Join the conversation about this story »

    See Also:

  • France Agrees With Spain In Saying Modding Nintendo DS Is Not Illegal

    We had just recently written about how a Spanish court had ruled against Nintendo, saying that a company making “flash carts” for the Nintendo DS — basically alternative cartridges that can be used for non-authorized games — was not breaking the law. The ruling basically said that since the flash carts extended the utility of the Nintendo DS, it should be allowed. The reasoning is that Nintendo should not be the only one who can extend the functionality of its devices. This was a nice surprise, but not a huge surprise, since Spain has a good track record of reasonable copyright law decisions.

    However, what is surprising is this story, sent in by a few folks, with reader “Sauce” getting it in first, noting that there has been a similar ruling in France, the inventors of the infamous “three strikes and you’re out” form of copyright law. The court there seemed to have a problem with Nintendo purposely locking developers out of its device, and even suggested that it should be required to be more open to developers, like Windows. Fascinating to see European courts recognizing the rights of individuals to have a “freedom to tinker.”

    Permalink | Comments | Email This Story





  • What Are Some Strange Types Of Neuroses?

    We’ve all seen Woody Allen movies. We all know what your typical neurotic looks like. They’re constantly distressed, always worried about the consequences of their actions and the actions of others. For some, it gets to the point that they can barely function in normal social situations.

    That’s the old’skool style of neuroticism, though. Our modern society has brought about an abundance of new forms of neuroticism that make the old Woody Allen-style to shame.


    Hollow-Tooth Syndrome

    Remember how you really needed to go to the bathroom right in the middle of your performance as Flying Monkey #3 in your 4th grade production of The Wizard of OZ? But you couldn’t get off the stage in time, so you peed yourself in front of an entire auditorium of friends, classmates, parents and teachers?

    If you do remember that moment, or a moment like it, and you keep trying to forget it, but it only stays in your mind longer, that’s Hollow-Tooth Syndrome. It’s when you try so hard to forget a specific bad memory that you just end up fixing the memory in to your brain; thereby, not forgetting it at all.

    The behavior is very masochistic, and it just ends up causing more damage than the initial memory could on its own. In fact, some people with rather intense cases of Hollow-Tooth Syndrome actually yell, scream or cry out the very moment the person recalls the memory.


    Anglolalia

    Have you ever watched or heard an interview with Madonna and wondered to yourself, “Why is that lady from Michigan speaking in a British accent?” Well, it’s because she suffers from Anglolalia, which is the uncontrollable and unstoppable need to speak as the Brits do.

    There really isn’t a whole lot of science to support the phenomena that’s mostly exhibited by celebrities, but it happens and it even has a fancy little Latin-sounding name.
      
    Of course, calling the people afflicted with Anglolaia “suffers” probably isn’t accurate because it affliction causes no pain and most of the time the person isn’t even aware that they are speaking that way. By the same token, there really isn’t a need to say they’re “afflicted” either. It’s simply a strange occurrence that there isn’t very much reason for.


    Cell Yell

    You know when you see a guy walking down the street and he’s yelling in to his cell phone loud enough for everyone to hear? In that time you’re probably wondering just in the hell that guy’s problem is. Well, it turns out that that guy actually does have a problem. He’s emotionally needy and, contrary to most people, he actually wants you to invade his privacy.

    By speaking loudly or yelling into the phone, he is satisfying his need to let everyone know that he is dealing with an issue that is, in his mind, of grand importance. Think of it like a child acting out for attention by yelling at a parent, just instead of a child it’s probably a 43-year-old man that wants people to give him their unearned attention.


    Acquired Situational Narcissism

    When a person that came from meager, humble beginnings becomes wildly successful in their adult life, there seems to be a point where they begin to think that they’re the second coming of Jesus Christ.

    The syndrome is characterized by a wide range of emotional swings; from rage to isolation, to a complete lack of anything that even closely resembles empathy. In some, it stems from a belief that a person would never be able to get themselves out of the meager beginnings they came from. When they eventually do get themselves out of it, they blow their power to achieve way out of proportion and grossly exaggerate their own self-worth.

    Kanye West, basically.  


    Hathos

    Pick a celebrity or politician that you hate. I mean really, really hate. The kind of hate that drives you to curse at your Tv screen whenever they appear. The kind of hate that makes you laugh whenever you hear about that person’s misfortune. The kind of hate that makes you constantly google that person’s name so you can watch random videos of them or read random articles about them, just to hate them some more.  

    After you’ve done all that hating, ask yourself this, did I derive any pleasure from all that loathing? If you answered with a resounding “Yes!” then Hathos is what you’re experiencing.
    Simply put, Hathos is the mysterious attraction to something that you truly cannot stand.


    Pronoia

    If you walk around town tripping people as they walk, slapping people in the face, shooting everyone the middle finger, insulting the children of young couples, and spitting in peoples’ food, yet, you still go to bed at night thinking people love you and really like your existence; then Pronoia is what you’ve got.

    Classified as the irrational belief that people like you, Pronoia is the number one cause of people getting beat up when they try to get chummy with the wrong kind of people.


    Telephilia

    It may sound like telephilia involves having sex with television sets, but that’s not what it is.
    But when you think about it…it’s not too far off from what it really is.

    Every time you watch a reality show and you see the contestants degrading themselves to the point where they’re basically lower than a worm on the food chain; or, every time you see a reality show contestant bounce from  one reality show to another; or, really, anytime a friend of yours who happens to think that they’ve got enough talent to make it to the top, but in reality, they’re a talentless hack that should keep their day job, thinks they’re entitled to a spot on the glorious television; that’s telephilia.

    It’s the bizarre pathological desire to be on television, regardless of how little talent a person possesses.

  • Twitter Launches Sign-Up API, Integrates with Citysearch

    Twitter is pushing ahead on two fronts with just one move. The company is now launching a new Sign-Up API which allows users to sign up for the service from any third party site or app which implements it. For now, the API isn’t public but has already been implemented by online local guide Citysearch. This last bit is important as it shows one way Twitter plans to tackle the business services market.

    Citysearch is the latest to partner with Twitter to access its rather valuable but mostly untapped data supply. The microblogging platform has recently signed up both Microsoft and Google which will integrate data from Twitter in their search results in one form or another. Citysearch users will be able to manage their Twitter accounts from the site and tweets from their accounts will also show up on their business page on the local directory site.

    This isn’t exactly revolutionary though it is a rather deep integration of Twitter features with a very specific market, local businesses. However, if the business doesn’t have a Twitter account, it can create one without leaving Citysearch and then proceed to use it just like they would any other account.

    There was no financial component to the partnership between Twitter and Citysearch, but the latter company may decide to introd… (read more)

  • WANTED: Money Managers Playing “Catch Up” To Save The 2009 Rally

    The action last Friday, both in stocks and in gold, suggested for the first time in months that the short-dollar/long-risk trade that everyone’s been loving may finally be coming to an end.

    Even if few believe a Fed rate hike is imminent, one will likely come at some point, and thus the market needs to be prepared.

    With this new mentality, the market would seem to be on shaky ground, unless laggard money managers can give us one more catch-up rally. A pause or dip of a couple days would seem to give them one last chance to get even for the year, regardless if the rally is getting long in the tooth.

    spreadsRaymond James strategist Jeff Saut — who believes that with credit spreads hitting pre-Lehman levels, there’s nothing stopping stocks from hitting pre-Lehman levels — has been sounding the alarm on this phenomenon for awhile

    As he wrote in early November:

    Indeed, despite the “bad mouthing,” all stocks have done over the past month is consolidate their July – September rally by moving sideways.  Moreover, that sideways consolidation has seen the equity markets work off their overbought condition into one of being pretty oversold.  Ladies and gentlemen, to an underinvested portfolio manager the current environment is a nightmare, especially if you believe as we do that we are going to see an upside celebration into year-end.  Manifestly, we have argued that with credit spreads below their pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels there should be no reason why the equity markets can’t “fill up” the downside vacuum created in the charts by said bankruptcy.  As can be seen in the following chart, that gives the S&P 500 an upside target of 1200 – 1250.  If correct, it implies that the cash rich, underinvested portfolio managers (PMs) will once again be forced to chase stocks higher.  Our guess is the PMs will chase the “winners” since the March lows rather than buying the laggards.  That suggests investments in emerging and frontier markets, technology, financials, base/precious metals, etc. should trade higher if the aforementioned scenario plays.

    If you’re a bull, then hope that holds true for at least a few more weeks.

    Join the conversation about this story »

    See Also:

  • Credit Suisse: Here Comes Deflation And A Government Debt Crisis

    debttoGDP.png(This guest post originally appeared at the author’s blog)

    As we mentioned on Friday, the cards may be stacked against equities in 2010.  After a spectacular year and one of the greatest rallies in the history of the equity markets stocks are now arguably oversold, overvalued and on borrowed timeLike Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse strategists believe 2010 will be a difficult year for equities.

    In terms of their macro 2010 outlook CS sees 4.1% global GDP (3.3% in the U.S.) and muted inflation.  They are quite positive about the first half of 2010, however.  They target 1220 on the S&P by mid-year and 5750 on the FTSE.  However, CS is increasingly concerned about a government funding crisis that eliminates all market gains in H2 of 2010 and sends markets reeling again as the problem of debt once again rears its ugly head.

    CS is positive on global growth for 5 primary reasons

        1. Employment to turn positive in Q1 in the US- corporates have overshed labour, especially in the US;
        2. Corporate spending to pick up
        3. China to grow strongly (10-11%) and not tighten aggressively until there is “economic overheating” (as opposed to “financial overheating”), ie not until there is an acceleration in wage growth (2011);
        4.  US housing continue to recover (house price-to-wage ratio close to a 40-year low);
        5.  The inventory rebuild is yet to occur.

    On the inflation front, CS sees very benign inflation in 2010 for reasons we have detailed thoroughly here at TPC.  They do, however, see a very high risk of inflation in 2012:

        (a) wage growth in the US, UK and Japan close to 50-year lows (and wages account for 70% of inflation);
        (b) output gaps suggest inflation will fall;
        (c) China is exporting deflation;
        (d) owner-occupied rents (which are 40% of US core CPI) are likely to fall (given that they lag house prices by two years). We believe significant inflation risks emerge from 2012 onwards.

    CS is not at all worried about the Fed raising rates soon.  They see the Fed raising in late 2010:
       
    The Fed will be slow to raise rates (unlikely to hike until late 2010). Normally, the first Fed rate hike is 19 months after the peak in unemployment.
    De-leveraging will continue to be a drag on the economy and the savings rate will remain higher than normal:
    Consumer to de-lever slowly as rates remain on hold.
    There is still $2tr of excess US consumer leverage. If asset prices rise and rates stay low, the US consumer is likely to take the slow de-leveraging route (with the savings ratio staying around 5%).
    As regular readers know, the biggest threat to the economy will actually come from the supposed solution: more debt.  Ultimately CS sees the problem of debt causing major government funding problems
    (5) Government debt is the biggest threat: government debt does not become an issue until there is a recovery in private sector credit growth (unlikely until late 2010/11). Until then, banks fund the majority of budget deficit, keeping bond yields low. Once private sector credit demand returns, banks should find it more profitable to lend to corporates and consumers (rather than buy low yielding govies) and then bond yields are likely to rise sharply (as they did in 1993/4). The response to this is likely to be fiscal tightening (4% of GDP) and more QE (to cap real bond yields).

    So how does CS see all of this playing out over the coming few years and how do you benefit from it?   They see the next major leg down in economic growth occurring in late 2010 or 2011.  The likely catalysts for the downturn will be one or all of the following:


        (a) A government bond funding crisis (late 2010 or 2011) as private sector credit growth returns
        (b) Accelerating Chinese wage growth (unlikely until 2011).

    Until Q3 2010 they see robust economic growth, accommodative policy, banks funding government deficits and low inflation continuing to favor equities.

    Sometime in late 2010 or early/mid 2011 they see the Fed raising rates.  In addition, bank loan growth is estimated to return leading to a reduction in bank bond buying.  Bond yields spike and the Fed is forced to respond with easy monetary policy.  Making matters worse is Chinese central bank tightening after wage growth begins to expand sharply.

    In H2 2011 or 2012 monetary and fiscal tightening will lead to another recession.  Chinese growth slows. Another sharp downturn ensues that finally sets the table for a long-term sustainable bull market.

    In the very near-term CS remains quite positive on equities for the following reasons:

        (1) Better growth/inflation trade-off than expected;
        (2) 25-30% earnings growth (falling ULC, outsourcing= strong margins, revenue estimates seem 2-3% points too low);
        (3) Major credit and macro variables at levels when the S&P 500 was 1280.
        (4) Valuation neutral.
        (5) Investors are still sceptically positioned money market funds still have above average cash levels, retail have bought far more bonds than equities and institutions appear to be underweight equities.
        (6) Excess liquidity remains extreme.

    Where to invest?  The UK, Japan and US are all underweights as high debt levels and low growth make them less attractive regions.  Asia ex-Japan remains overweight while continental Europe also remains overweight.

    Read more market commentary at The Pragmatic Capitalist >>

    Join the conversation about this story »

    See Also:

  • AutoblogGreen for 12.07.09

    LA 2009: CMT-380 packs microturbine, li-ion battery into a matte black package
    It’s one way to make a $20,000 kit car into a $375,000 project.
    Don’t you dare: French parents criticize Renault for naming new electric car Zoé
    What would happen if we had the Ford Emily, hmm?

    Et tu, Clarkson? Top Gear names Toyota Prius its “City Car of the Year”
    Surprise!
    Other news:

    AutoblogGreen for 12.07.09 originally appeared on Autoblog on Mon, 07 Dec 2009 05:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

    Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

  • US Futures Head Into The Red

    Asia gained overnight, but European stocks fell, and the US markets are picking up where they left off on Friday.

    Technically, Friday was an up day, but it sure didn’t feel that way, as markets gave up huge post-BLS gains to end only modestly in the green.

    And now US indices are pointing lower, with several hours to go before trading begins.

    And here’s an interesting tidbit from Bloomberg:

    S&P 500 options to protect against declines in stocks over the next year cost 22 percent more than one-month contracts, the highest since 1999, data compiled by London-based Barclays Plc and Bloomberg show. The gap shows concern that analyst estimates for record earnings by 2011 may prove exaggerated, endangering an advance that pushed the S&P 500 up 63 percent since March.

    futures

    Join the conversation about this story »

    See Also:

  • AppJet Retreats on Closure Plans, Will Open Source EtherPad Instead

    Late last week, AppJet announced that it had been acquired by Google and that it would be effectively shutting down EtherPad, its real-time document collaboration app. This last part didn’t sit particularly well with its users which were vocal in their disapproval of the move, claiming that in no way Google Wave, to which they were encouraged to switch, is a substitute for the app they’ve grown to love. AppJet has heard their complaints and has now completely scratched its initial plans and will continue to support the service at least until it will completely open-source it, which it also intents to do.

    “Many of you were not super thrilled with the transition plan we announced in our last blog post, which I guess is really quite flattering. We have worked with Google and the Google Wave team to make the following changes to the plan, which I think you will appreciate,” Aaron Iba, AppJet CEO wrote.

    “We have re-enabled pad creation from the EtherPad home page. We have begun planning how to open source the code to EtherPad and the underlying AppJet Web Framework… We are working with the Google Wave team to get all EtherPad users a chance to try out the Google Wave preview within the next couple of weeks.”

    The initial plan was to disable t… (read more)

  • TMC-3D Multi-axis Motion Controller Executes G-code Applications

    TMC-3D, the Technosoft multi-axis motion controller, is now adapted to execute G-code commands. Today, a lot of industrial applications are defined with these types of motion. G-code is a language, used in numerical control programming, that executes various movements as: piece cutting, profile shaping or drawing, etc. In order to achieve these particular kinds of movement, the numerical control uses basic blocks which carry one or more words, each word consisting of a letter—detailing the function to be performed—followed by a number that assigns value to the function (e.g., N0001 G90 G00 Y125 X2 A23 B-1).

    The G-code information is translated into TML commands through the
    G-code to TML converter integrated in the EasyMotion Studio software. The G-code files are imported into EasyMotion Studio and translated to TML commands. After the conversion process, TMC-3D will send the motion sequences to the drives / motors which execute the movements. The TML converter allows you to set the basic movement parameters specific to the G-code: linear axes, cycle start button, choose the measure units, set the Traverse and Feed rates. Technosoft’s G-code–to–TML converter supports various G-code words, letters and parameters together with unary and binary operands.

    TMC-3D is able to control two other Technosoft intelligent drives and also includes a 640 W servo drive that may be used to command one of the application axes. The motion programming can be done using PC or PLC motion libraries, or directly at controller level in TML language. EasyMotion Studio automatically generates all the TML instructions, so you don’t need to learn or write any TML code. Powerful TML instructions as: motion commands, program flow control, I/O handling, arithmetic and logic operations are executed / controlled by TMC-3D. Its role is primarily a managerial one, with responsibilities that include network or slave management. It can perform predefined actions as: stopping the motion on all slaves in case of a node failure, or commanding different homing procedures and other motion profiles on each slave.

    For further details (on how to set up a multi-axis project, how to import a G-code file or execute a G-code application), see the ‘Executing G-code commands with TMC-3D Motion Controller’ application note at: http://www.technosoftmotion.com/products/OEM_PROD_TMC-3D.htm

    TECHNOSOFT
    Switzerland
    Tel.: +41 32 732 55 00
    [email protected]
    www.technosoftmotion.com