Mereja

Author: Serkadis

  • Modification divisions hiring binge; Why all the investor updates during a holiday week?

     

    pipeline-press

    rob-chrisman-daily 

    In her new book, “Going Rogue,” Sarah Palin says she doesn’t like vegetarians. Palin says all vegetarians should go back to Vegetaria, where they came from.

    Unlike Conan O’Brien, from whom that line came from, many investor bulletins are not concise. And I may have seen more releases from top investors of greater length, but I really don’t remember when. If you’re not interested, skip ahead. Alphabetically:

    Affiliated, a lender (including correspondent division) out of South Dakota, is no longer accepting FHA 2008 products.

    CitiMortgage told clients that their FHA fixed rate loans are now eligible to be originated as Higher Priced Mortgage Loans (as set forth in Regulation Z), provided all applicable FHA and Citi overlay guidelines and lending parameters are met. FHA ARMs, Hybrid ARMs and Streamlined Refinances are not permitted, nor are debt ratio exceptions. Also, after the 17th HUD “has issued a clarification to Mortgagee Letter #2009-32 regarding the use of TOTAL Scorecard on FHA Streamline loans with case numbers: “NO Credit Qualifying Streamline Refinance: Loan should not be run through TOTAL. However, if the loan is run through TOTAL the file must be underwritten and closed as a regular (non-streamline) rate and term (no cash out) refinance. And for “Credit Qualifying Streamline Refinance: Loan should be run through TOTAL via DU or LP.”

    lots more news on Citi, Flagstar, GMAC Bank Correspondent, US Bank Wholesale, Wachovia Freddie Relief, Wells Correspondent, Hiring Binge, the markets, and joke of the day  <<< CLICK HERE

  • Consumer Confidence Rises 0.8% In November

    clueless shopping

    Consumer Confidence increased slightly for November, up 0.8% from 48.7% in October.

    Here’s the breakdown:

    Press Release: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in October, increased slightly in November. The Index now stands at 49.5 (1985=100), up from 48.7 in October. The Present Situation Index was virtually unchanged at 21.0 versus 21.1 last month. The Expectations Index increased to 68.5 from 67.0 in October.

    The Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world’s largest custom research company. The cutoff date for November’s preliminary results was November 17th.

    Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “Consumer Confidence posted a slight gain in November. The Present Situation Index, however, was virtually unchanged and remains at levels not seen in 26 years (Index 17.5, Feb. 1983). The moderate improvement in the short-term outlook was the result of a decrease in the percent of consumers expecting business and labor market conditions to worsen, as opposed to an increase in the percent of consumers expecting conditions to improve. Income expectations remain very pessimistic and consumers are entering the holiday season in a very frugal mood.”

    Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions was virtually unchanged in November. Those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased to 45.7 percent from 46.7 percent, while those claiming conditions are “good” increased to 8.1 percent from 7.8 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market deteriorated moderately. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 49.8 percent from 49.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 3.2 percent from 3.5 percent.

    Consumers’ short-term outlook improved slightly in November. The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in business conditions over the next six months decreased slightly to 20.0 percent from 20.8 percent, but those expecting conditions to worsen decreased to 15.1 percent from 18.2 percent.

    The labor market outlook was also slightly less pessimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead declined to 15.2 percent from 16.8 percent, but those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 23.1 percent from 26.1 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes decreased to 10.0 percent from 10.7 percent.

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  • Grandma likes it big – DSi LL selling better than PSP Go

    When it comes to the two newest gaming portables, it seems that Nintendo walked a better path than Sony. Sure, the target market may be different in…

  • Star Wars: Trench Run Brings the Force to the iPhone

    Star Wars: Trench Run is finally here and this thing is utterly beautiful, packed with authentic audio and video from Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope and boasting impressive gameplay visuals.

    Trench Run is based around the Rebel assault on the Death Star at the end of George Lucas’ classic 1977 movie. Piloting an X-Wing fighter, you begin the game high above the Empire’s dreaded Death Star in an aggressive dogfight with TIE fighters. Once you’ve dispatched them, it’s time to descend into that famous trench and make your approach to a small (two meter wide) thermal exhaust port, which, if memory serves, you’ll find right below the main port.

    Oh, and, the shaft is ray-shielded so you’ll need to hit it directly with proton torpedoes. The doubting Dodonna’s amongst you might think that impossible — even for an iPhone — but, y’know, womp rats, T-16’s and all that.

    The game starts with a fierce dogfight with TIE fighters above the dreaded Death Star…

    …and culminates in the famous trench run.

    Trench Run uses the iPhone’s accelerometers to great effect. I’m usually wary of extensive tilt-control. That might be because I’m just rubbish, or because developers sometimes use accelerometers unnecessarily. In Trench Run it’s not too bad, and there are options for adjusting pitch and sensitivity.

    The on-screen controls are cleverly implemented; there are no virtual buttons cluttering the screen. Instead, the two main controls (Force Power for slow motion and, of course, Fire) are activated by pressing the left or right hand sides of the screen. Easy.

    The few controls are activated by hitting large areas of the screen

    Video sequences of the X-Wings approaching the Death Star (S-foils in attack position, naturally) and the spectacular explosion of the Death Star itself (the 1997 bang, by the way) really help set the scene. But it’s John Williams’ breathtaking score that puts you slap bang in the middle of the action.

    All Wings report in…

    One quibble; the difficulty levels are a bit… odd. The easiest level was selected for me at installation so I bumped it up a level (usually labeled “Normal” but Trench Run goes directly from Easy to Medium.) So, with Medium selected, I dove in… and failed. I’m normally good at this type of thing but after 15 minutes of failure I was starting to hate this game. So I tried again on “Easy.”

    10 minutes later I had destroyed the Death Star and defeated the evil Empire. I had finished the whole game. See, once the dogfight’s over, the actual trench run is appallingly easy. THQ Wireless say the game has “tons of replay value” but when the difference between “Easy” and “Medium” is actually “Pointless” and “Practically Impossible” I don’t see myself playing this again any time soon. (Now in your best Yoda voice, croak “That is why you fail.”)

    THQ also says there are hidden features in the game. You could always stretch out with your fingers and ask Google what they are, but that’s probably the path to the Dark Side.

    If you love Star Wars, this is a game you should own. I doubt it’s worth the $4.99 asking price, but hey, there’s profit to be had, and Lucasfilm ain’t finished beating this Tauntaun just yet.

    Star Wars Trench Run is out now. Go buy it – and may the Force be with you.

  • Panamera Buyers, Start Packing: Porsche reportedly giving free luggage for late cars

    Filed under: ,

    2010 Porsche Panamera – Click above for high-res image gallery

    The first Porsche Panameras are on their way to dealers as we speak, but the trek from Germany to the US is taking longer than expected due to a reported problem with the key software which is bring fixed at the ports. That leaves 195 expectant Panamera owners without their new German sports sedan for a little while longer, and Porsche thinks it has come up with a nice way to make up for its gaffe.

    Autoweek reports that Porsche will give each of the 195 waiting Panamera owners a set of custom luggage for their troubles. And not just any luggage, either. The price tag for this custom Porsche-branded luggage set is reportedly $3,580, or more than many of us paid for our first car. And while we’re sure the wait has been painful, it appears the agony will soon subside. A Porsche spokesman reportedly told AW that 72 Panameras have finally reached the dealer and the other 123 will arrive by November 30. Not exactly in time to show off the new Porsche at Thanksgiving, but if you’re flying out of town for Christmas the Porsche luggage should come in handy.

    Gallery: First Drive: 2010 Porsche Panamera

    [Source: AutoWeek]

    Panamera Buyers, Start Packing: Porsche reportedly giving free luggage for late cars originally appeared on Autoblog on Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • Krugman: We’ll Never Get Back To Full Employment At This Rate

    PaulKrugman-0909-1While lots of us were expressing relief that the slip dowward in the revised economic growth numbers out from the government was not worse than expected, Paul Krugman came in with a reality check. The revised number is so low that it means the unemployment rate will remain elevated…forever.

    The problem is that with growth at just 2.8%, we’re not really doing anything to take up the slack in the economy. Our under-utilized productive capacity won’t come online.

    For Krugman, the key measure of economic health is the size of the output gap–which is a measure of the difference between what the economy would be producing if it kept growing at its historical pace and the actual growth (or decline) in the economy. (Incidentally, how come nobody ever talks out an inverse output gap during booms?) Krugman says that at these growth levels we’re not really doing anything to close the output gap.

    Krugman writes:

    When the 3.5% advance number came out, I took to warning people that even if the economy continued to grow at that rate, we wouldn’t see anything like full employment until late in Sarah Palin’s second term. Given the latest number, the date at which we can expect to see a return to full employment is … never.

    Actually, the situation may be even grimmer. The odds are good that growth will slow next year as the inventory bounce fades and the stimulus turns from pushing to dragging the economy. Still zombified banks may continue to trap capital and at least some of the business investment from the past year will turn out to be zero-interest rate driven malinvestment.

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  • Goldman: Poor, Freezing Americans Will Buy Lots Of Sweaters For Christmas This Year

    sweater

    Goldman Sachs has identified the perfect gift for our poor, cold times. (via Deal Journal)

     “For years, the gift-giving excitement focused on consumer electronics innovation; this year, we could see more sweaters under the tree, given (1) healthy pent-up demand after three years of weak apparel sales, (2) sharper price pointing makes for a compelling gift alternative, and (3) a more muted consumer electronics product cycle providing less crowding out [of apparel.]“

    (Picture via Flickr user mamamusings)

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  • Google Doesn't Want to Be a Utility Company

    With its hands in every cookie jar in the kitchen, there doesn’t seem to be anything that Google isn’t doing or planning to do. It’s gotten to the point where even the slightest hint or rumor that Google is planning to enter a new market is making established players worry. But do utility companies have any reason to fear Google? As far fetched as it may seem, the truth is that, in a way, they very well may have, though the search giant is eager to dispel any worries.

    Google was represented by Ed Lu, the company’s program manager for advanced products at the GreenBeat 2009 conference, focused green technology. There’s a very good reason for Google to be present at such a conference, aside from building operating systems and selling ads, it also has a big focus on alternative energy and manages several “green” projects through its philanthropic arm Google.org.

    Google also offers PowerMeter, an power-usage monitoring software designed to work with so-called “smart meters” giving users an easy way of keeping track of their energy usage. It’s this tool and the partnerships which Google has with several device manufacturers that lead to the inevitable question of whether Google was trying to squeeze its way as a middle man of sorts between utility companies and the consumers.

    read more)

  • Hulu Telling Sites To Stop Embedding So Much

    Once again, we’re left wondering how Hulu can survive, given that its ownership has too much interest in restricting what its customers want to do. Following braindead efforts to block specialized browsers, even though they access Hulu content just like regular browsers, combined with blocking anonymous proxies, even those used for perfectly legitimate reasons, Hulu is apparently now cracking down on sites that embed a lot of its videos — yes, despite having embed functionality specifically allowed.

    You may recall that one of the key reasons why YouTube became so popular in the first place was a little javascript hack that made it incredibly easy to embed the video directly into any other website (while still hosting the content on YouTube). Suddenly, rather than having to link to the video, it was easy to have video on any other website. Hulu of course recognized the value of that and included embed code functionality as well, but quickly found itself unsure how to deal with the fact that people actually used it. Back when Hulu was still in private beta, requiring invites to access the sites, some other sites quickly decided to just embed all the videos on their own sites, pulling in the traffic that Hulu could have generated for itself. Many sites apparently are still embedding lots of Hulu shows, and Hulu has simply decided to tell those sites to stop. As NewTeeVee notes in the link above, nothing good will come from this policy. It comes across as being rather against how the web works and how people expect the web to work. In the end it just appears like yet another “but we can stop people from doing what they want to do” move that all too often comes from those in legacy industries.

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  • Car and Driver announces 2010 10Best Cars

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    Our pals over at Car and Driver, now helmed by our esteemable buddy Eddie Alterman, just released their 2010 10Best Cars. Quite an undertaking. As they put it, “58 contenders. $2.5 million total. 12,000 test miles logged.” For those keeping track, this is the 28th time C/D has published their 10Best. Surprises this year? No not really. The BMW 3 Series continues its unabated drive of dominance to 10Best history with an impressive, will-probably-never-be-duplicated 19th straight win. Not to be too outdone, the Honda Accord also makes the cut for a 24th time, though not consecutive.

    Also note that while the Audi S4 makes the grade, the run-of-the-mill (so to speak) A4 does not. We’re also pleased to see the Ford Fusion Hybrid getting its just dues (again, it’s interesting that the gas-only version doesn’t). And of course, you’ve got your yearly appearance by the Mazda Miata MX-5, Porsche Boxster / Cayman and Volkswagen GTI. Falling off the list this year? The Chevrolet Corvette, Infiniti G37, and the Jaguar XF.

    Would we have done things much differently? Probably not much, though we must admit we were pulling for the highly impressive Suzuki Kizashi to make its debut and we’re a bit surprised to not see one of the new crop of pony cars on the list. Maybe next year. Alphabetical list of winners after the jump.

    [Source: Car and Driver | Image Source: R.S. Owens]

    Continue reading Car and Driver announces 2010 10Best Cars

    Car and Driver announces 2010 10Best Cars originally appeared on Autoblog on Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • The Worm Has Turned: iPhone Exploit Gets Nasty

    Last week the news about yet another non-belligerent iPhone worm did the rounds and people responded by saying things like “How silly jailbreaker’s are for not changing their SSH root passwords,” and “It’s only a matter of time until a worm appears that’s not so friendly…” OK, yes, geeky people said those things. Normals will likely never know that jailbreaking is something you can do to a phone.

    Well, the predictions of gloom have proven true. Over the last few days, and reported by The Mac Observer, a new worm has been identified. This one, (so-far limited to iPhone owners in the Netherlands), takes advantage of the exact same SSH-exploit as the previous worm. Once on a user’s iPhone, it circumvents Mobile Safari’s anti-phishing technology to present a spoof of a popular banking website. Users are tricked into handing over their online banking authentication details. The worm spreads from iPhone to iPhone, but is limited to jailbroken handsets connected to the same Wi-Fi network.

    Apple has weighed-in with its own sage wisdom and advice on the matter. Speaking to The Loop’s Jim Dalrymple, Apple spokesperson Natalie Harrison said:

    The worm affects only a very specific set of iPhone users who have jail broken their iPhones and hacked it with unauthorized software. As we’ve said before, the vast majority of customers do not jailbreak their iPhones, and for good reason. These hacks not only violate the warranty, they will also cause the iPhone to become unstable and not work reliably.

    If you live in the Netherlands and have jailbroken your iPhone and installed SSH, you need to change the default password to protect yourself from this particular exploit. Just don’t think you’ll be safe — Apple might keep the iPhone platform locked-down tight, but you can’t argue against the obvious security advantages of doing so. To date, there have been four confirmed worms “in the wild” on jailbroken iPhones. How many confirmed worms have appeared in the wild that affect non-jailbroken iPhones? There you have it.

    The Real Question Is…

    But the real question, as I see it, is this; who jailbreaks any more? I mean, really… who? Why? The single biggest reason people originally went to the trouble of jailbreaking their iPhones was due to frustration at the lack of native apps. (Back in the early days of iPhone ownership, and before the app store existed, only Apple’s own home-grown apps were locally installed on the device. Every third-party apps ran inside Mobile Safari and, therefore, required access to the Internet.) I did a lot of travel back then, usually by air and train, so I didn’t always have a reliable Internet connection; this rendered most of my web apps useless. That annoyed me, and I very nearly did the whole jailbreaking thing just so I could install applications locally that would work irrespective of an active Internet connection. (Ultimately I wussed-out, too afraid I’d permanently mess-up my precious — and expensive — iPhone.)

    But that was then, and times have changed.. What other compelling reasons were there to void Apple’s iPhone warranty? MMS, video recording, exchange server support, multitasking and Copy & Paste were the “most missed” features. Today we have more apps than you can shake an iPhone at. We have MMS and video recording, exchange support and copy & paste.

    The only thing missing is “true” multitasking, but for the vast majority of iPhone owners (for whom multitasking is another way of saying “I want instant messaging!”), Apple’s Push Notification Service does a decent job of balancing productive multitasking with preserving battery life.

    So… why jailbreak? Is it a form of protest against Apple’s broken application approval process? Is it because you absolutely must replace the default icons with something far less classy? Perhaps you can’t live without tethering? Tell us in the comments the (few) remaining reasons for jailbreaking an iPhone.

    Just please don’t say it’s for geek cred… I might cry!

  • Google and TiVo Sign TV Advertising Deal

    Google is all about advertising when it comes to making money but it’s still very dependent on search ads. It’s doing more than OK with those, but that’s no reason not to expand. One area where Google hopes to capture market share, by providing a fresh approach and better tools to measure the impact of the ads, is TV ads. Google has now partnered with the DVR company TiVo to get access to detailed user data which it can then offer its AdWords TV Ads customers.

    “Google TV Ads is focused on enabling advertisers to target and measure television advertising more effectively,” Mike Steib, director of emerging platforms at Google, said. “This deal with TiVo will give advertisers access to even more anonymized viewership data, making Google’s data set one of the best in the industry. Advertisers can use this data to understand which audiences and ads are most effective, which we think will ultimately lead to more relevant ads for viewers.”

    The deal makes it possible for Google to offer some pretty powerful tools to advertisers, but to make it even more interesting, the company is promising that the advertisers will only have to pay for the ads that are actually viewed, something that traditional TV networks can’t offer through their ad networks.

    Traditionally, TV ads are bought based on the ratings the sho… (read more)

  • Case-Shiller: Home Price Recovery Stumbles, Results Worse Than Expected

    Home prices fell 9.4% in September, according to the widely-respected S&P/Case-Shiller housing index. Analysts had been looking for a 9.1% decline, so this is a bit worse than expected.

    On a sequential basis, home prices rose .3%, again, a bit worse than the .8% analysts had been looking for. The market is now back to where it was in Fall 2003.

    The housing market is creeping back, but at a pace disappointing to the bulls.

    Speaking on CNBC S&P’s David Blitzer said the report showed clear signs that the strong momentum seen over the summer is starting to crack.

    caseshillerpriceindex.png
    caseshillerpriceindexsseptember.png

    The full report is embedded here:



    download –

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  • First Look: Nov. 24

    Loans aren’t enough. In microenterprise settings as diverse as Nicaragua and Ghana, small business owners often share something in common besides grit and ingenuity: a lack of basic knowledge about accounting and control. Common mistakes—such as mis-estimating their amount of inventory or the extent of credit—could easily be avoided. Even a little training in budgeting and in the concepts of cost control, process improvement, and risk management could “make the difference between a life of constant struggle and more sustained success,” write HBS professor Srikant Datar, Marc J. Epstein, and Kristi Yuthas in “Management Accounting and Control: Lessons For and from the World’s Tiniest Business” [PDF] in the November 2009 issue of Strategic Finance.

    Management accounting and control are key for anyone who runs a business as seemingly simple as a tortilla stand, Datar et al. continue. Recognizing that many microentrepreneurs they met lacked financial literacy skills, the researchers introduced a simple matrix using icons (instead of complicated math) to track cash flow. These and other ideas generated within local contexts could give more small business owners the financial breathing room they need to think outside the box. Professionals with expertise in accounting and control need to step up and play a role in turning problems throughout the world into opportunities, the authors conclude.

    — Martha Lagace

    Working Papers

    Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation

    Authors: Kathleen L. McGinn, Katherine L. Milkman, and Markus Nöth
    Abstract

    We study the framing effects of communication in multiparty bargaining. Communication has been shown to be more truthful and revealing than predicted in equilibrium. Because talk is preference revealing, it may effectively frame bargaining around a logic of fairness or competition, moving parties on a path toward or away from equal-division agreements. These endogenous framing effects may outweigh any overall social utility effects due to the mere presence of communication. In two experiments, we find that non-binding talk of fairness within a three-party, complete-information game leads toward off equilibrium, equal division payoffs, while non-binding talk focusing on competitive reasoning moves parties away from equal divisions. Our two studies allow us to demonstrate that spontaneous within-game dialogue and manipulated pre-game talk lead to the same results.

    Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-039.pdf

    Publications

    Cost Structure Patterns in the Asset Management Industry

    Authors: Dennis Campbell and Frances X. Frei
    Publication: Chap. 8 in Operational Control in Asset Management: Processes and Costs. 1st ed., edited by Michael Pinedo, 154-168. Denmark: SimCorp StrategyLab, 2010
    Abstract

    This chapter examines patterns in the cost structure of asset management firms and establishes two important trends in cost behavior. First, when revenues are growing, “indirect” costs related to sales, distribution, marketing, personnel, technology, and occupancy are far from fixed in this industry. In some cases they are “supervariable” or rising at a faster rate than sales. Second, and in contrast, such indirect costs appear relatively fixed in the face of sales declines in this industry. We discuss potential sources of these cost-structure patterns and their implications for cost management efforts as asset management firms move forward from the financial crisis of 2008.

    Management Accounting and Control: Lessons for and from the World’s Tiniest Businesses

    Authors: Srikant M. Datar, Marc J. Epstein, and Kristi Yuthas
    Publication: Strategic Finance (November 2009)
    Abstract

    The article discusses skills microentrepreneurs need to manage and expand their businesses. After interviewing hundreds of microfinance clients around the globe, the authors were able to identify five tools drawn from management accounting where improved knowledge would have a substantial impact including cost management, throughput enhancement, risk management, budgeting, and opportunity identification.

    Download the paper: http://www.imanet.org/pdf/11_09_epstein.pdf

    Nameless + Harmless = Blameless: When Seemingly Irrelevant Factors Influence Judgment of (Un)ethical Behavior

    Authors: Francesca Gino, Lisa Lixin Shu, and Max Bazerman
    Publication: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (in press)
    Abstract

    People often make judgments about the ethicality of others’ behaviors and then decide how harshly to punish such behaviors. When they make these judgments and decisions, sometimes the victims of the unethical behavior are identifiable, and sometimes they are not. In addition, in our uncertain world, sometimes an unethical action causes harm, and sometimes it does not. We argue that a rational assessment of ethicality should not depend on the identifiability of the victim of wrongdoing or the actual harm caused if the judge and the decision maker have the same information. Yet in five laboratory studies, we show that these factors have a systematic effect on how people judge the ethicality of the perpetrator of an unethical action. Our studies show that people judge behavior as more unethical when (1) identifiable versus unidentifiable victims are involved and (2) the behavior leads to a negative rather than a positive outcome. We also find that people’s willingness to punish wrongdoers is consistent with their judgments, and we offer preliminary evidence on how to reduce these biases.

    Entry, Exit and Labour Productivity in U.K. Retailing: Evidence from Micro Data

    Authors: Jonathan Haskel and Raffaella Sadun
    Publication: Chap. 7 in Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, edited by Timothy Dunne, J. Bradford Jensen, and Mark J. Roberts. The University of Chicago Press, 2009
    Abstract

    The paper investigates the U.K. retail sector using store and firm-level data between 1998 and 2003. First, we present the first exhaustive description of the U.K. retail sector using micro data sources. Second, in the spirit of Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (2002), we look at the contributions of firm entry and exit for the productivity growth of the sector. Third, we provide some new evidence of the recent shift of large U.K. retailers toward smaller retail formats, which followed the introduction of new and more restrictive planning constraints for the opening of large retail stores. We suggest that this change in the store configurations of the major retailers might be one of the factors behind the recent TFP slowdown experienced by the industry in the U.K.

    Negotiation Analysis: From Games to Inferences to Decisions to Deals

    Author: James K. Sebenius
    Publication: Negotiation Journal 25, no. 4 (October 2009): 449-465
    Abstract

    Exemplified by the pioneering work of Howard Raiffa and often expressed in the pages of the Negotiation Journal, the emergent prescriptive field of “negotiation analysis” progressively developed from Raiffa’s early contributions to game theory and to his later foundational work in statistical decision theory and decision analysis. Drawing from each of these fields but methodologically distinct from them, negotiation analysis has mainly adopted an “asymmetrically prescriptive/descriptive” orientation. It develops the best possible advice for what one or more parties should do conditional on empirically grounded assessment of what the other side(s) actually will do. An extensive negotiation analytic literature has developed, often making the traditional assumption of a well-specified and fixed situation for analysis. Relaxing this requirement, however, more recent work systematically puts the “setup” of a negotiation itself—its parties, their interests, their no-deal options, the sequence and basic process choices or design-into the realm of strategic and tactical choice.

    Hiding the Evidence of Valid Theories: How Coupled Search Processes Obscure Performance Differences Among Organizations

    Authors: Nicolaj Siggelkow and Jan Rivkin
    Publication: Administrative Science Quarterly (forthcoming)
    Abstract

    Theorists argue that an organization’s high-level choices, such as its organizational design or the attributes of its top management team, should influence its performance, yet empirical researchers have struggled to detect such influence. The impact of high-level choices may appear weak, we theorize, because the choices are embedded in coupled search processes. A coupled search process exists in an organization when managers search for high-level choices that shape the search for low-level, operational choices, which in turn determine performance. Using a simulation model, we show that coupled search processes obscure the performance impact of high-level choices through two mechanisms: (1) a survivor effect, arising because firms that persist with poor high-level choices are those that luckily happened on good low-level choices despite their poor high-level choices and (2) a wanderer effect, arising when firms use good high-level choices to find good low-level choices and achieve strong performance, but then wander toward poor high-level choices. We show that these effects are particularly strong in stable environments, and we identify empirical strategies that can tease out the true performance impact of high-level choices.

    Cases & Course Materials

    Adult Life Stages

    John A. Davis
    Harvard Business School Note 809-097

    This note describes basic concepts of adult life stage theory and summarizes Daniel Levinson’s research findings on the adult development of men and women.

    Purchase this note:

    http://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cb/product/809097-PDF-ENG

    Choosing a GAAP for Canada

    Karthik Ramanna and Beiting Cheng
    Harvard Business School Case 110-023

    Explores Canadian regulators’ decision to adopt International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The Canadian decision in 2005 to adopt IFRS is particularly interesting because Canada had well-developed domestic accounting standards and because a significant fraction of Canadian industry was lobbying for the adoption of U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and not IFRS. The case positions the student as an advisor to an important local politician. Based on cultural, economic, and political information available in 2005, the case requires the student to choose between (1) retaining Canadian GAAP, (2) adopting U.S. GAAP, or (3) adopting IFRS.

    Purchase this case:

    http://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cb/product/110023-PDF-ENG

    Nantucket Nectars: The Exit

    Joseph B. Lassiter, III, William A. Sahlman, and Noam T. Wasserman
    Harvard Business School Case 810-041

    The founders of Nantucket Nectars are trying to decide whether and how to sell their company.

    Purchase this case:

    http://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cb/product/810041-PDF-ENG

    Wiwa v. Royal Dutch/Shell

    Lynn S. Paine and Lara Adamsons
    Harvard Business School Case 310-038

    On the eve of trial, and after nearly 14 years of pre-trial litigation, the parties in Wiwa v. Royal Dutch/Shell jointly announced that the four U.S. lawsuits stemming from the execution of the Ogoni Nine in 1995 had been settled.

    Purchase this case:

    http://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cb/product/310038-PDF-ENG

  • From Strategy to Business Models and to Tactics

    Published: November 24, 2009
    Paper Released: November 2009
    Authors: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Joan Enric Ricart

    Executive Summary:

    Drivers such as globalization, deregulation, or technological change, just to mention a few, are profoundly changing the competitive game. Scholars and practitioners agree that the fastest-growing firms in this new environment appear to have taken advantage of these structural changes to compete “differently” and innovate in their business models. However, there is not yet agreement on what are the distinctive features of superior business models. This dispute may have arisen, in part, because of a lack of a clear distinction between the notions of strategy, business model, and tactics. HBS professor Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Joan Enric Ricart present an integrative framework to distinguish and relate the concepts of business model, strategy, and tactics. Key concepts include:

    • An integrative framework that cleanly separates the realm of business model, strategy, and tactics will help guide the search for novel, interesting, and profitable new ways to compete.
    • “Business model” refers to the logic of the firm, the way it operates, and how it creates value for its stakeholders.
    • “Strategy” refers to the choice of business model through which the firm will compete in the marketplace.
    • “Tactics” refers to the residual choices open to a firm by virtue of the business model that it employs.

    Abstract

    The notion of business model has been used by strategy scholars to refer to “the logic of the firm, the way it operates and how it creates value for its stakeholders.” On the surface, this notion appears to be similar to that of strategy. We present a conceptual framework to separate and relate business model and strategy. Business model, we argue, is a reflection of the firm’s realized strategy. We find that in simple competitive situations there is a one-to-one mapping between strategy and business model, which makes it difficult to separate the two notions. We show that the concepts of strategy and business model differ when there are important contingencies upon which a well-designed strategy must be based. Our framework also delivers a clear separation between tactics and strategy. This distinction is possible because strategy and business model are different constructs.
    45 pages.

    Paper Information

  • The Baja 1000 – and Hummer vs. Toyota – has been decided

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    The 672.85-mile-long Baja 1000 race is over, and 328 starters were boiled down to just a handful of winners in various classes. The premier events were taken by Andy and Scott McMillin in the trophy truck category, in a modded Chevrolet Silverado. Andy won the race three years ago as a year ago as Robby Gordon’s co-driver, but this year beat the NASCAR pilot by three places. The motorcycle category went to the three-way team of Kendall Norman, Timmy Weigand, and Quinn Cody, who crossed the line about 45 minutes before the McMillin’s did.

    Behind them, two legends of the race practically had the Stock Mini class to themselves: 20-time winner Rod Hall, along with Emily Miller, and Mike Winkel in a Hummer H3 took on Robert Ditner, Joe Nolan, Kez Ziesemer, and three-time winner Ivan Stewart in a 2010 Toyota 4Runner. Of three starters in the class, these two vehicles were the only ones to finish, and the issue came down to the last few miles: Hall’s Hummer suffered a long repair stop at mile 40 and he only passed Stewart’s 4Runner for first place just thirty miles from the finish.

    While Stewart settles for second – and Hall gets his record-setting 21st class win – it’s a triumph for the truck and drivers to have finished the race at all. Congratulations to all involved

    [Source: SCORE]

    The Baja 1000 – and Hummer vs. Toyota – has been decided originally appeared on Autoblog on Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • Bill Ackman Has Made An $800 Million Killing On Bankrupt Commercial Real Estate

    Bill Ackman

    While U.S. commercial real estate fears are ubiquitous, some people are making big money from the panic.

    Turns out that Bill Ackman’s Pershing Capital has already made $800 million in paper profits off of its debt and equity positions in the commercial real estate investment trust General Growth Properties (GGP).

    Financial Times: “It is a classic good-company, bad-balance-sheet operation,” said Jeff Aronson, co-founder of Centerbridge Partners.

    Mr Ackman began accumulating his GGP position in November 2008, said a person familiar with the fund. He spent $50m on stock – priced at under a $1 a share at the time – that is now worth $560m. He invested $100m in unsecured debt now worth $400m. Centerbridge holds $300m in GGP unsecured debt, purchased when it was trading for 30-odd cents on the dollar, a person familiar with the fund said.

    Read more here.

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  • Third Quarter GDP Growth Revised Down To 2.8%

    awesome_trader

    The economy grew by just 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, or 70 basis points less than the original estimate of 3.5 percent growth. The magnitude of the cut was in line with expectations.

    The most closely watched portion of today’s news is likely to be the consumption component. The original estimate was for 3.4% growth in consumer spending, contributing 2.4 points to the GDP. This  seemed to indicate that consumer spending had picked up strongly. The revised number is just 2.9%, adding just 2.1 points to the GDP. Still, that’s not a huge pullback, and certainly not out of the range of expectations.

    Today’s report also gives signals that consumer prices might not be increasing as rapidly as thought, which may give the Federal Reserve space too keep rates lower for even longer. The government had previously estimated that the price index for personal consumption had increased 2.8% in July through September. Now it says that increase was slightly lower, 2.7%. The core personal consumption measure, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.3% in the third quarter. The earlier estimate was 1.4%.

    Of course, this is just the first round of revisions to the GDP numbers. The final estimate for third-quarter GDP will be published December 22. And, even then, it’s not really clear that GDP accurately reflects the state of the economy.

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  • Black Friday Will Be Insanely Scary And Busy This Year

    black friday

    The National Retail Federation has released a new report on holiday spending and while overall spending is expected to decrease, Black Friday shopping should increase by 16%.

    A survey the NRF conducted showed 57 million people were “definitely” heading to stores this Friday in order to score hot deals.

    No wonder Wal-Mart (WMT) is employing new tacitcs this year, so that nobody gets hurt or dies.

    ————-

    Press Release: Washington, October 20, 2009 – Retailers are about to embark on the holiday season of the serious bargain hunter. According to NRF’s 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $682.74 on holiday-related shopping, a 3.2 percent drop from last year’s $705.01.*

    It comes as no surprise that the economy was an overriding theme throughout this year’s survey. Two-thirds of Americans (65.3%) say the economy will affect their holiday plans this year, with the majority of these consumers saying they’re adjusting by simply spending less (84.2%).** People will also be shopping for sales more often (55.0%), using more coupons (41.7%) and putting up last year’s decorations (34.0%). Many Americans will also make changes in gift-giving, planning to buy more practical gifts (36.0%), buying a joint gift for kids or parents (17.3%), and making more gifts (16.7%). Additionally, more than one-fourth of Americans (28.6%) say the economy is forcing them to travel less or not at all for the holidays.

    “While last holiday season was filled with chaotic confusion, adjusting to uncertainty has now become routine for many Americans,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “This holiday season will be a bit of a dance between retailers and shoppers, with each group feeling the other out to understand how things have changed and how they must adapt.”

    Americans’ eagle-eye on bargain hunting is adjusting the priorities of many shoppers. According to the survey, more than half of holiday shoppers say that sales and price discounts (43.3%) or everyday low prices (12.7%) will be the most important factor when deciding where to shop. Factors like selection (21.0%), quality (11.8%), convenience (4.9%) and customer service (4.4%) declined from last year.

    Not surprisingly, the majority of holiday shoppers (70.1%) will purchase from discounters this year, though more than half (55.8%) will also shop at department stores. Grocery stores (45.0%), the Internet (42.4%), clothing stores (33.8%) and electronics stores (31.8%) will also be popular destinations. In addition, one in ten holiday shoppers (11.4%) will buy gifts or other holiday-related merchandise at thrift stores or resale shops.***

    Retailers are compensating for soft sales this holiday season by cutting back on inventory. According to NRF’s Port Tracker report, released in September, traffic to the nation’s ports has scaled back to levels not seen since 2003.

    “In anticipation of weak demand, many retailers scaled back on inventory levels to prevent unplanned markdowns at the end of the season,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “Once the most popular items are gone, retailers won’t have anywhere to get them, so if there was ever a holiday season to buy early, this is it.”

    Whether they’re shopping to get the best selection or trying to stretch out spending over a longer period of time, many holiday shoppers are starting early. According to the survey, 39 percent of Americans will begin their holiday shopping before Halloween, which is comparable to previous years.

    As in previous years, three-fourths of Americans’ holiday budget will be spent on gifts. While spending on family members will decline by a slight two percent ($387.06 in ’09 vs. $395.15 in ’08), gifts for friends ($66.77 vs. $80.13) and co-workers ($19.26 vs. $22.63) will see double-digit drops. Americans also plan to spend about five percent less ($34.81 vs. $36.88) on “other” gifts for people like babysitters, teachers and clergy.

    Candy and food spending may be one bright spot this year, with the average person planning to spend $10 more in that category than last year ($90.26 in 2009 vs. $80.28 in 2008). Spending on other non-gift categories like decorations ($40.75 in ’09 vs. $43.45 in ’08), greeting cards and postage ($26.77 vs. $27.39), and flowers ($17.05 vs. $19.10) is expected to drop.

    “While the economic climate has shown some improvement from last holiday season, retailers are not out of the woods yet,” said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, BIGresearch. “With a variety of factors still up in the air, including uncertainty over job security, many Americans just aren’t buying into the talk of recovery.”

    Though Americans were less inclined to purchase gift cards last season, the popular gifts retain their spot at the top of the list among gift recipients. According to the survey, 55.2 percent of adults would like to receive a gift card this holiday season, with clothing (48.8%), books and DVDs (48.6%) and electronics (33.2%) among other popular choices.

    NRF continues to expect holiday sales to decline 1.0 percent to $437.6 billion.

    PRESS AND ANALYSTS: For more insights from the survey, join NRF for a media briefing today at 1 pm ET with Phil Rist, BIGresearch Executive Vice President, and NRF’s Ellen Davis. Register now.

    The NRF 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey was designed to gauge consumer behavior and shopping trends related to the winter holidays. The survey polled 8,431 consumers and was conducted for NRF by BIGresearch September 30 – October 7, 2009. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.0 percent.

    BIGresearch is a consumer market intelligence firm that provides unique consumer insights that are gathered online utilizing very large sample sizes. BIGresearch’s syndicated Consumer Intentions and Actions survey monitors the pulse of more than 8,000 consumers each month to empower its clients with unique insights for identifying opportunities in a fragmented and changing marketplace.

    The National Retail Federation is the world’s largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry’s key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees – about one in five American workers – and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

    ###

    * Using consumers’ intentions from early October coupled with actual spending data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, NRF has derived final estimates on per-person spending for the 2008 holiday season along with the years 2004-2007. Going forward, NRF will make it a practice of using the final estimates of per-person holiday spending each fall for the previous year, much like it does total holiday sales. Please contact NRF with any questions you have about the updated numbers or rationale behind the revisions.

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  • REPORT: BMW hoodwinked by fraudster in sale of Sauber F1 team

    Filed under: , ,

    Questionable past acquisitions aside, you don’t get to be as large and successful as BMW without having some business acumen. That assumption, however, is being cast into question as reports out of Germany suggest that the Bavarian automaker may have been duped in its sale of the Sauber F1 racing team.

    Peter Sauber’s eponymous racing team joined the F1 grid in 1993, and raced for a dozen seasons independently before BMW bought the team in 2005. But earlier this year, the German automaker announced it would withdraw from the sport, leaving Sauber to look for a new investor. A mysterious Swiss finance firm called Qadbak Investments stepped up, and the sale was completed. Having missed the deadline to re-commit for 2010, however, Sauber was replaced by newcomer Lotus, but since Toyota vacated its position, Sauber has been waiting on the FIA to give them the go-ahead. And now we’re starting to understand the FIA’s hesitance.

    According to emerging reports, it appears that Qadbak – which also recently acquired the Notts County football team in England and was supposedly backed by a couple of reclusive, wealthy Middle Eastern families – is little more than a string of shell companies for a convicted British fraudster based in Dubai. Apparently Russell King, the fraudster at the end of the Qadbak paper trail, was trying to tap into the shared F1 revenue streams split between the teams in the series. Having finished sixth in the constructors’ championship this season, the Sauber team would be entitled to a considerable slice of the pie.

    The revelation raises more questions than it answers, but we’re expecting the whole picture to come into focus over the coming weeks, so stay tuned.

    [Source: SonntagsZeitung via Axis of Oversteer]

    REPORT: BMW hoodwinked by fraudster in sale of Sauber F1 team originally appeared on Autoblog on Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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