Author: Carl Cameron

For the fifth time since taking office, President Barack Obama visits California this week, to give a major speech on the economy Wednesday and hold a second set of big political fundraisers for endangered U.S. Senator Barbara, D-Calif., Boxer Tuesday evening.

Tuesday’s fundraisers take place in Pacific Heights, one of the wealthiest neighborhoods of San Francisco, which is of course THE most liberal major city in the nation. During his 2008 campaign, then candidate Obama famously explained to a San Francisco gathering that part of the reason he was having trouble in the Pennsylvania primary against Hillary Clinton was that Pennsylvania voters were bitter and cling to God and guns.

The fundraisers Tuesday will rake in about $1.5 million for Boxer’s re-election coffers…this is no cheapie…$35,000 per couple!

Boxer is in the fight of her life and she has acknowledged as much for months. On Capitol Hill she has at times been impatient and curt when asked about the campaign back home.

California holds its primaries on June 8th. The GOP primary to oppose Boxer is a three-way contest and very much in flux.

Republican candidate and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, a millionaire, leads some polls. She’s never run for office before but was a senior adviser to John McCain’s 2008 Presidential campaign. Since then, she has shifted some of her positions to the right on things like immigration. She considers herself a social and economic conservative. As a woman she might stack up stronger against Boxer. Fiorina left HP under a cloud and has been criticized for it. Among all three candidates she is hands down the most politically polished, even if she is the least experienced. She has raised more money than her GOP rivals but has also invested some her own.

The other top contender is Tom Campbell. He is well known to California Republicans, having served five terms in Congress from Silicon Valley during the tech boom and bust years. Campbell has cast himself for years as California’s intellectual fiscal conservative. He has a PHD in economics and studied under Milton Freidman. He is a soft spoken academic type and a social moderate who is pro-choice on abortion and pro-gay marriage. That plays well in general election polls against Boxer — but even in liberal California — social conservatives hold sway in GOP primaries. Campbell has seen some polls of his support wane in recent days.

The most consistently conservative record on social and fiscal issues belongs to state assemblyman Chuck Devore. He is a Lieutenant Colonel in the Army Reserve, who worked at the Pentagon before seeking elected office. The Tea Party Express has endorsed him but the depth of their support is uncertain.

I interviewed all three GOP candidates in advance of the president’s arrival Tuesday.

Fiorina lambasted Boxer repeatedly, “She is vulnerable because she is a failed senator, she’s been in Washington D.C. for 26 years, people are tired of professional politicians, they’ve figured out that they are part of the problem and not part of the solution.” She also argued that her differences with Senator Boxer would be the reason Republicans would elect her June 8th, “Tom Campbell is not going to beat me and that’s because Republican primary voters know that Tom Campbell cannot be their representative, first of all, Tom Campbell can’t beat Barbara Boxer, you can’t beat Barbara Boxer with Barbara Boxer light”

Campbell however disputed Fiorina’s lead in recent polls, “In the primary you have a very simple and very powerful focus, who will have the very best chance of replacing Senator Barbara Boxer, every poll way beyond the margin of error, shows that I do.”

Devore said his election strategy was working, “recent polls have shown that he [Campbell] has been collapsing and that Fiorina is beginning to move, so I think that bears out my strategy of continuing to focus my attention Carly Fiorina…She’s a political opportunist who will say or do anything to get elected and I think that the voters have had enough of that.”

On the air and in the news the June 8th primary for the Senate has been overshadowed by the bitter battle in the race for governor to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger. In it, EBAY founder and Billionaire Meg Whitman is in a vicious fight with state insurance commissioner and a multimillionaire Steve Poizner. The winner will face Attorney General Jerry Brown who was already governor from 1975-1983.

Pennsylvania Democrats got dire news in the last few days from their own internal polls about Senator Arlen Specter’s re-election hopes.

Private Democratic polls suggest Specter, who quit the GOP to run as a Democrat, could lose by as much as 8 percentage points in Tuesday’s primary, to two-term Congressman Joe Sestak, who was recruited by party officials to run against Specter, when Specter was still the Republican incumbent.

Specter is now counting on the state’s Democratic machine to keep his political future alive. Governor Ed Rendell has promised his organization will get out the vote and Democrats in Washington have been shoveling money Specter’s way.

But statewide turnout is expected to be low, 35 percent at best. Rain is in the forecast.

Turnout models for Philadelphia and Allegheny county, where Specter must win big, are abysmal. Philadelphia has the Keystone state’s highest concentration of Democrats…but as few as 110 thousand or 15 percent are expected to turn out Tuesday.

Sestak ran a strong race and raged against his own party for preferring a former Republican to himself, a lifelong Democrat and retired navy admiral. He surged to a tie, then the lead, with an attack ad that included Specter saying on tape that switching parties would enable him to get re-elected.

Specter is a feisty and resourceful politician, it ain’t over till it’s over, and his organization is superior to Sestak’s. It will make the difference one way or the other.

This race has always been mostly about Specter. Yes, there is a pronounced anti-incumbent, anti-Washington, anti-establishment undercurrent but Specter makes it different. He has served longer than any other Pennsylvania senator. He infuriated Republicans for years for what he now admits was being a RINO (Republican in name only). He ran for president in 1996 against his own majority leader, Bob Dole.  Specter has been a lightning rod of controversy for years, and now he’s a party switcher.

Sestak’s ads and rhetoric helped, the anti-incumbent mood contributed, but in the end this race is, and always was about Arlen Specter and whether this was his last stand.

It’s not a surprise but it’s what Joe Biden would call a “big deal”.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist will keep his political career alive by announcing his run for senate, not as a Republican, but with no party affiliation.

He’s been calling Republican and non-partisan donors alike asking for help in his independence.

His wife Carole is estimated to be worth $50 million. Recent Sunshine State Senate races have topped out around $15-16 million for big spending winners.

The governor could need that and more because he’ll lose the ground game and organization of the Republican Party of Florida.

The GOP establishment is about to turn against Crist in earnest. It could hinder his effectiveness as governor.

In the months ahead he will use his office to concentrate on the people’s business, put himself in photo ops highlighting his leadership, and decry the partisan sniping he will identify at every opportunity between his two rivals. He will cast them as hopeless captives of party influence and bickering.

Race has a small but real role in this three-way Florida race. Democrat Kendrick Meek, a four-term congressman from Miami Dade County is African American, Republican Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio is Cuban American, and Crist a moderate, now calling himself independent, is white.

Rubio and Meek have both scheduled media availabilities to react to Crist’s move, but that will be just the beginning. In the next few weeks, as reaction pours in, all three candidates will begin to reposition for the long seven-month campaign. It will take some time for the candidates and strategists to sort out new ways of explaining their differences in a three-way race.

Crist starts his new career outside a major party with polls suggesting it’s a three way statistical tie.

Some will say Crist was driven out of the Republican party by conservative purists, or that tea party support for Rubio was the big factor. Both points have merit but are often overstated.

Charlie Crist has always been a moderate. He was a tough on crime attorney general, but otherwise “Chain Gang Charlie “ has always been a soft-touch centrist. Crist seemed to have a perfect political pitch only a couple years ago with stratospheric approval ratings. But for the last year in the GOP primary he has seemed tone deaf.

But that’s the point: he’s no longer in that party, and outside it, he is more popular.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Danny Tarkanian (son of famed former UNLV basketball coach) has begun a tough radio attack on abortion against rival Sue Lowden, the former Nevada state party chairwoman. Lowden, who is now pro-life, leads GOP polls and fundraising.

Tarkanian begins TV ads at the end of the month and plans to be on the air through the GOP primary June 8th.

Tarkanian’s radio ad starting today hits Lowden for changing her position from pro-choice to pro-life for political reasons.

There are a dozen republicans vying for the chance to take on democratic incumbent Harry Reid in the fall. The Senate Majority leader in Washington is one of the top GOP targets. Reid’s polls are abysmal.

A third candidate, former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, was endorsed by the national Tea Party Express group recently, substantially raising her profile in the GOP race which promises to be one of the nastiest Republican primaries of 2010.

Here’s the text of Tarkanian’s 30 second radio ad, “Political Convenience:”

Narrator: Sue Lowden told conservatives she was pro-life, but since then the truth has come out.  Sue Lowden supported Roe v Wade.   Sue Lowden voted for an initiative supporting abortion on demand. And she felt so strongly, she even tried to change the pro-life position of the Republican party.  No wonder one leading newspaper said she could quote: easily be convicted of political convenience.

RNC communications director Doug Heye says 31 state party republican chairman have signed on to a letter of support for chairman Michael Steele.

The letter will be released shortly.

In the wake of calls from at least 2 RNC members for Steele’s resignation, Heye says Steele is continuing an aggressive phone campaign with RNC members to shore up support for the RNC and his leadership.

Steele speaks to the 2010 Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans Saturday afternoon.

UPDATE (1:23pm EDT): The RNC has just released the list of republican state chairman who have signed the statement in support of chairman Michael Steele.  See the letter and list of supporters below:

As Republican Party state chairmen, we believe Chairman Michael Steele can lead the RNC to be a full partner with us this fall in our efforts to fire Nancy Pelosi and win Republican majorities in Congress and among governors. His record at winning elections has been stellar, his fundraising ability has been solid, and he has honed our Victory programs’ ability to identify and deliver voters for Republican candidates.

The charge of any national Chairman is to raise money and win elections. With over $100 million raised, victories in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts, and victories in 29 of 37 special elections, Michael Steele has demonstrated that under his Chairmanship the RNC has the ability, focus, and drive to lead Republicans to a sweeping victory in November.

The RNC under Chairman Michael Steele is a full partner with state committees, responsive to our needs, and intensely interested in providing the support necessary for victory. That process is not an easy process. Technology has had a great impact on the art of politics. That impact has required the RNC to adapt and change to work effectively in this modern environment. Change can sometimes be difficult. But the changes Michael Steele has brought to the RNC were essential for our party to adapt, and win, when we do not, for the moment, hold the White House or Congress.

We stand behind Chairman Steele as he continues to lead us on the path victory in November.

Randy Ruedrich, Alaska

Ron Nehring, California

Dick Wadhams, Colorado

Chris Healy, Connecticut

Tom Ross, Delaware

Robert Kabel, District of Columbia

Sue Everhart, Georgia

Jesus Torres, Guam

Jonah Ka’auwai, Hawaii

Norman Semanko, Idaho

Pat Brady, Illinois

Steve Robertson, Kentucky

Charlie Webster, Maine

Audrey Scott, Maryland

Jennifer Nassour, Massachusetts

Ron Weiser, Michigan

Tony Sutton, Minnesota

Will Deschamps, Montana

Mark Fahleson, Nebraska

John Sununu, New Hampshire

Jay Webber, New Jersey

Harvey Yates, New Mexico

Robert Tiernan, Oregon

Rob Gleason, Pennsylvania

Gio Cicione, Rhode Island

Chris Devaney, Tennessee

Dave Hansen, Utah

Steven Larrabee, Vermont

Pat Mullins, Virginia

Luke Esser, Washington

Reince Priebus, Wisconsin

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich brought the crowd to its feet before even opening his mouth at the 2010 Southern Republican Leadership Conference (SRLC) in New Orleans

As the Hilton exhibition hall speakers blared Survivors’ “Eye of the Tiger,” 2000 activists from 14 southern states clapped in unison.

Even before the ovation ended, Gingrich’s first words were a wry and direct shot at President Obama’s honesty and authenticity, “when you speak from the heart you don’t need a teleprompter.”

Leading off a string of speeches from 2012 GOP White House wannabes he pulled no punches.  “This is the most radical president in American history” Gingrich said, “historians will some day write that the more Obama talked, the less people believed him.”

The mastermind of the 1994 republican revolution described opposition to the Obama agenda in the 2010 mid-terms in sweeping historical terms: “I believe this is the most serious conflict since the 1850’s.”

He cast Obama as a picking a fight with Americans, “the most radical American President has thrown down the gauntlet . . . .  He (Obama) has said I run the machine and there is nothing you can do about it.”

Gingrich says there is a simple three step solution to right the nation.

Gingrich says stage one is to simply win the fall mid term elections.

Stage two is refusing to fund any objectionable Obama programs in 2011 and 2012.

Stage three is “make sure that Obama joins Jimmy Carter as a one term president.”

In that context he asked republicans to commit that a republican president and congress will repeal every radical bill passed by the Obama administration.

Gingrich said republicans have rightly been the party of NO against bad policy but that republicans should also emphasize their good ideas.

Republicans, Gingrich proclaimed, should loudly say yes to: a balanced budget, more jobs through tax cuts, stopping medicare and medicaid fraud, better equipping soldiers, an American energy plan, and the right kind of health care reform.

After his prepared remarks the former college professor took questions and inevitable the White House question came up: “What are your personal plans for 2012?”

Without hesitation he postponed his answer and left the door wide open, “in 2011 (my wife) Calista and I will probably have to make a decision on whether or not to run.”

In the hallway before his speech, Newt said he would soon be visiting the lead off caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

If there is any doubt left that he is seriously testing the waters..later this year Gingrich also has a book coming out – an absolute must in the modern presidential campaign.

Despite growing internal criticism of Republican National Committee chairman, Michael Steele, the RNC raised $11.4 million last month, its’ most ever in March of a congressional-election year.

The National GOP headquarters has $11.3 million in the bank for the coming 2010 midterm election campaign.

Last month’s haul was the biggest single month for donations since Steele became chairman, 4 million more than February.

Nonetheless, Steele remains under fire for what many republicans think has been wasteful and inappropriate spending habits at headquarters that undermine the GOP campaign message of fiscal and personal responsibility.

The RNC has purged several top staffers in recent days hoping to surround Steele with a new team that can better administer RNC operations and help Steele manage the GOP message.

Across the aisle democrats had a banner month too, better than republicans.

The Democratic National Committee raised at least $13 million last month in March besting the GOP during a year in which republicans are heavily favored to enjoy a net gain of seats that could threaten the democrats congressional majorities.

Through the end of February the RNC raised $120 million. Democrats raised only $100 million.

The DNC was carrying over three million in debt, the RNC had none.

In recent months some major republican donors have decided not to give to the RNC but instead contribute to the National Republican Congressional Campaign (NRCC) or the National Republican Senatorial Campaign (NRSC) as well as the republicans Governors association (RGA.)

The shift of donations away from the RNC is considered by many to be yet another sign of discontent with Steele and RNC management.

The final deadline for the parties and candidates to submit detailed financial reports to the Federal Election Committee is two weeks after the end of a month, or quarter.

For now we have mostly bottom-line figures about money raised and cash on hand…in a matter of days we’ll see more details of HOW, WHERE and, on WHAT it was SPENT.

Great fun for a political voyeur – in West Hollywood – or anywhere else.

Carl Cameron takes us behind the scenes at the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville, where some don’t have a problem with the nick name “TeaBagger.” 

CHICAGO – Scott Brown is not on the ballot, but definitely in the minds of Illinois voters as they go to the polls today in the nation’s first regularly scheduled 2010 primary election.

“It’s not the Kennedy seat. It’s the people’s seat,” said Brown before his special election miracle in Massachusetts earlier this month.

Republicans here have modified Brown’s rally cry to “It’s not Obama’s seat, it’s the people’s seat!”

Interim Illinois U.S. Senator Roland Burris is done in DC come November. The seat once occupied by then senator Obama- and allegedly offered to the highest bidder by Illinois indicted former Governor Rod Blagojevich – is open again this year.

Democrats hold all the major elected offices state wide, they outnumber Republicans more than 2-1 in the state legislature, and 7 of the last 9 US senators have been Democrats. Those kind of numbers would be daunting, were they not so clearly blamable for the corruption and incompetence plaguing Illinois government in recent years.

And this time, as GOP comeback-poster boy-Brown said, “If it can happen in Massachusetts it can happen anywhere.” The GOP can taste it.

The Republican primary frontrunner is 5 term republican representative Mark Kirk of Illinois’ 10th congressional district.  Kirk is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate, similar in many ways to Brown.  He has a commanding lead in GOP polls over 4 other Republican rivals.

The Democratic race is less clear. The frontrunner is little known state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. He is one of the President’s basketball buddies from Chicago and a former executive in Broadway Bank, his family’s business. It lost $75 million dollars last year and federal regulators have ordered it to bolster it’s capitalization by tens of millions in a matter of weeks.  Broadway Bank is now a political football.

There are 2 other Democrats in the race: Cheryle Jackson, who led the Chicago Urban League and David Hoffman, an ex-inspector general for the City of Chicago who’s running an attack ad against Giannoulias pointing out that Broadway Bank lent millions to convicted felon Tony Rezko..an Obama fundraiser who got the Obamas a sweet and controversial deal on a house in Chicago. Chicago-style politics?!?

Republicans are rooting for Giannoulias and the myriad ways they might defeat him in the fall.  They have more to look forward too.

Blagojevich’s trial begins in June…many here expect White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Senior Adviser to the President Valerie Jarrett will both be required to testify since their voices are reportedly on some of the FBI’s blago-wiretaps.  Among the more colorful charges (and wiretaps) against the ex-gov: that he tried to auction the senate seat after Obama won the presidency.

There are more than 40 candidates for 7 offices on the ballot today, it is the earliest primary ever in Illinois and the first since Blago got busted.

When Barack Obama ran for US senate, the GOP in Illinois was in such disarray they could not even recruit an in-state candidate. At the very last minute they had to bring in radio host and former presidential candidate Alan Keyes…who got crushed.

There are 39 weeks before the general election and this time Illinois Republicans are already competitive.  Yet, Democrats are not to be counted out in Illinois, they don’t call it Chicago style politics for nothing.