Author: Chris Kromm

  • SOUTHERN BLOC(K): Dixie Dems and the health reform vote

    NOTE: See the bottom of this post for latest updates.

    With only 24 hours to go before the big health reform vote, the White House and Dem leaders say they’re within striking distance of the magic 216 needed to pass it in the House vote on Sunday.


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    Making Obama’s job a lot harder is the stubborn opposition — or vacillation — of Southern Democrats. So far, 13 of the 26 Democrats who are expected to vote against the bill tomorrow hail from Southern states.

    And while wavering Dems from other parts of the country have been slowing coming into the “yes” column, key Southern representatives have refused to budge, either solidifying their “nay” stance or refusing to commit.

    Here’s the latest news on where 20 key members of the Southern delegation stand (bold = most recent updates; “voted” = vote on last year’s House health bill):

    Representative Voted The Latest The Buzz
    Barrow, J (GA) No No (AJC, 3/19) Progs ask: In a Dem-leaning district, why?
    Berry, M (AR) Yes Undecided (NYT, 3/20) Hinges on abortion compromise; retirement makes vote easier
    Boucher, R (VA) No Undecided (T-N, 3/20) Medicare reimbursement is the sticking point
    Bright, B (AL) No No (MA, 3/20) “We cannot afford the massive cost”
    Boyd, A (FL) No Yes (WaPo, 3/19) “This is good policy”
    Chandler, B (KY) No No (LCJ, 3/20) Won last election by +30 points
    Childers, T (MS) No No (MCL, 3/20) “Deeply concerned” about cost; abortion
    Cuellar, H (TX) Yes Yes (WaPo , 3/20) Released Sat statement saying “yes”
    Davis, A (AL) No No (MA, 3/20) Eyes on guv race; Black Caucus angry
    Davis, L (TN) No No (Twitter, 3/21) Various sources saying he’s a no
    Edwards, C (TX) No No (DMN, 3/18) Worried about his “political future”
    Kissell, L (NC) No No (WRAL, 3/20) Netroots favorite now not so popular
    Kosmas, S (FL) No Yes (WaPo, 3/19) One of 2 big Fla pickups for White House
    Marshall, J (GA) No No (AJC, 3/19) Always a long shot
    Mollohan, A (WV) Yes Undecided (NYT, 3/19) Dems hopeful
    Nye, G (VA) No No (Hill, 3/21) One of 2 big Saturday defections
    Ortiz, S (TX) Yes Likely Yes (Not official, but Dems counting on a yes
    Perriello, T (VA) Yes Yes (WaPo, 3/19) Another big Friday pick-up
    Rahall, N (WV) Yes Undecided (CG, 3/19) Abortion making him a tough get
    Tanner, J (TN) No No (Twitter, 3/21) Various sources saying he’s a no

    For more news, check out The New York Times, The Huffington Post or Firedoglake for the latest whip counts.

    UPDATES 3/20: The Hill says it’s down to 20 key House votes as of 2:25 pm 3/20. They include: Berry (AR), Boucher (VA), Rahall (WV), Cuellar (TX), Davis (TN), Tanner (TN), Mollohan (WV), Nye (VA), Rodriguez (TX). That’s nine Southerners on a list of 20.

    * 4pm — Cuellar is now a “yes.

    UPDATES 3/21: 

    * Glenn Nye is now a “no.”
    * 1:25pm — Pelosi says, and everyone agrees, that Dems have the 216 votes. But none of the undecideds — including the key Southern question marks above — have officially announced. So who’s it going to be? My bets are on Berry, Boucher and Mollohan. We’ll see about Davis, Rahall and Tanner.
    * 1:50pm — Tanner and L. Davis now in “no” column — this makes the abortion/Stupak crew essential, which would influence Mollohan and Rahall.
    * 2:09pm — NYT still not saying L. Davis of Tenn. a “no,” but we hear he is — that means only 4 Southern Dem votes still in play: Berry (AR), Boucher (VA), Mollohan and Rahall (WV). Stupak/abortion deal key to Berry and Mollohan for sure, probably Rahall. What’s the word on Boucher?
  • TURNING THE LOCK-EM-UP TIDE: State prison populations decline for first time since 1972

    PrisonTowers.jpgLocking people up in jails and prisons is expensive. State officials know this all too well: In a country that puts more people behind bars than any other — the U.S. has less than 5% of the world’s population, but 25% of its prisoners — over 91% of the incarcerated are under state or local supervision.


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    The lock-’em-up approach to criminal justice that took off in the 1980s and ’90s may have helped a few political careers, but it has crushed state budgets: By 2008, states were spending over $50 billion a year on incarceration.

    But as Facing South has been reporting (see here and here), the Great Recession helped change that, pushing states to explore less expensive (and often more effective) options like alternative sentences for non-violent offenders and streamlining probation and parole.

    Today, the Pew Center has released a report showing the shift in approach is bearing fruit: For the first time in 38 years, state prison populations are in decline.

    In January 2010 there were 5,700 fewer inmates in state prisons than last year, marking “the first year-to-year drop in the nation’s state prison population since 1972.” And some of the biggest declines have been in states known for hard-line criminal justice systems.

    Take the case of Mississippi. In 1995, the get-tough-on-crime Magnolia state enacted a “truth in sentencing” law which required inmates to serve at least 85% of their time before being considered for parole. But two years ago, Mississippi changed course:

    Responding to budget constraints and a surge in its prison population — from about 12,000 inmates in 1995 to more than 22,000 in 2008 — lawmakers revisited truth in sentencing. They changed the law so nonviolent offenders would be eligible for parole after serving a quarter, not 85 percent, of their sentences. Over the course of the next year, more than 3,000 inmates were released an average of 13 months earlier than they otherwise would have been.

    The end result: Mississippi has shed 5.4% of its prison population, one of the sharpest drops in the country.

    But not all states are laying down the prison keys. While Pew finds 27 states lowered their prison population — including five in the South, among them Kentucky, South Carolina and even Texas (!) — 23 went the other direction and increased their number of prison inmates. Here are the states going against the trend:

    STATES WITH INCREASES IN PRISON POPULATION

    Indiana: +5.3%
    West Virginia: +5.1%
    Vermont: +5%
    Pennsylvania: +4.3%
    Alaska: +3.8%
    Louisiana: +3.7%
    Alabama: +3.5%
    Arkansas: +3.1%

    But overall, states are cutting down on incarceration, and Pew makes a point of saying it’s not just about cash: Crime is down, prisons are over-crowded and states are re-thinking their approaches to corrections; they’re not “simply shedding inmates in a rush to save money.”

    That’s likely true, although money still seems to be the biggest driver.

    For example, it’s notable that the eight states which saw inmates increase by 3% or more all have state budget deficits below the national average. They’re still struggling and, as of the end of last month, they all had budgets in the red.

    But these states all apparently believe they still have enough cash to burn to spend the roughly $79 a day it costs to keep another inmate behind bars.

  • Who are the 6 Democratic senators poised to kill student loan reform?

    NOTE: Welcome DailyKos readers! If this your first time reading Facing South, check out our daily coverage of Southern politics, energy policy and other hot issues. You can also sign up for our free weekly newsletter with fresh news, trends and analysis about the changing South.

    Graduating from college is a great feeling. Not so great: being saddled with $23,200 in student loans, the average debt owed by graduates of the class of 2008, according to the Project on Student Debt.


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    Reforming the for-profit student loan system, which allows finance giants like Virginia-based Sallie Mae to make virtually risk-free returns thanks to government subsidies, was a top priority of President Obama. His idea, supported by most Democrats, was to take out the middle-man: Instead of subsidizing private lenders, the feds would completely take over origination of student loans.

    The result: The Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act, which the Office of Management and Budget estimated would save over $80 billion over 10 years (critics point out the number is inflated, because it didn’t include money lost from defaults; but that’s neither here nor there, because the government currently absorbs private losses anyway). Savings would be plowed back into Pell Grants — much easier on students in the long-term — and other higher education initiatives.

    But as The New York Times writes today, this week six senate Democrats have threatened to derail the Act, writing in a letter to senate majority leader Harry Reid that “provisions of
    contemplated student lending reform that could put jobs at risk.”

    The letter was signed by Democratic Senators Thomas R. Carper (DE), Blanche Lincoln (AR), Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Mark Warner (VA) and Jim Webb (VA).

    The senators’ back-stepping, which likely scuttles the possibility of passing the Act with the filibuster-proof appropriations bill, comes after over a year of aggressive lobbying by heavyweights in the corporate loan industry. Sallie Mae alone spent $3.48 million on lobbying last year leading an all-out assault by industry reps claiming up to 35,000 jobs would be lost.

    But proponents of reform have steadily hacked away at the bank’s claims. First, it turns out the total jobs in student loans is closer to 30,000. But most importantly, the part of the industry the bill affects — loan origination — employs the fewest workers. According to Ben Miller at The Quick and the Ed (via Jane Hamsher):

    Loan origination in its most basic form is the process of obtaining the
    money for student loans and transferring those funds to borrowers or to
    their institutions. This is a very inexpensive activity. According to
    information from the U.S. Department of Education, its complete cost of
    originating a Direct Loan last year was around $5.50. That figure
    includes around $1.50 in administrative and other expenses.

    Sallie Mae and the big loan companies would still be able to service the loans, which is where most of the money — and jobs — are. Nelnet, Sen. Nelson of Nebraska’s biggest contributor, saw their servicing revenues go up 13% last year after getting a contract through the Department of Education.

    Why are the senators doing this? The first place to look for answers is the political muscle and deep pockets of the student loan industry. Between 2005 and 2010, Nebraska-based Nelnet has shoveled $63,100 to Sen. Nelson’s campaigns.

    Virginia senators Warner and Webb have to worry about Sallie Mae based in Reston, which employs 8,000 workers in Reston and has shown its willingness to play political hardball. Florida is also home to several leading student loan operations in the primary and secondary markets, and Sen. Carper’s Delaware is ground zero for financial services outside of New York.

    The more puzzling case is Sen. Lincoln of Arkansas. Her position on the Senate Finance Committee has made her a magnet for banking and finance campaign dollars ($246,700 for the 2010 cycle). But a search of her campaign contributions show no special ties to the student lending industry.

    So how is siding with big lenders driving students into debt going to help her back home in Arkansas, which ranks in the bottom 15 states nationally for number of college-age youth getting a university degree?

  • Down in the South: New jobs numbers show Southern states suffering

    As I noted in my piece yesterday on why Obama and Democrats need to get serious about job creation if they want to improve their fortunes in the South, today the government released its new state-based jobs numbers.

    What does the data tell us? It’s pretty much the same story as last month: Southern states are hurting more.

    Same as last month, eight out of 13 Southern states have higher unemployment rates than the national average:
    South Jobs Chart Mar10.jpg
    What’s also striking is how much unemployment has risen. While slightly down from December 2009, every Southern state has seen its jobless rate increase over the last year.

    The one-year increase has been bigger than the national average in seven Southern states, including West Virginia which saw an increase of +3.5, or 24,000 more people out of work.

    Florida had the single-biggest yearly increase in the nation, with the number of unemployed growing by 303,200 between January 2009 and January 2010.

    The state of chronic joblessness many Southern states are facing has lots of political implications, from the fight in Congress over unemployment benefits to the long-term need for a real national jobs strategy.

  • How progressives can win back the South: Jobs

    Unemployment Olympics.jpgFor most people in America, the #1 issue right now is the recession — and as Bob Herbert argues in a New York Times op-ed today, Obama’s failure to grasp the depth of this sentiment represents his and his party’s biggest Achilles heel:

    The Obama administration and Democrats in general are in trouble because they are not urgently and effectively addressing the issue that most Americans want them to: the frightening economic insecurity that has put a chokehold on millions of American families […]

    Instead of focusing with unwavering intensity on this increasingly tragic situation, making it their top domestic priority, President Obama and the Democrats on Capitol Hill have spent astonishing amounts of time and energy, and most of their political capital, on an obsessive quest to pass a health care bill.

    Health care reform is important. But what the public has wanted and still badly needs above all else from Mr. Obama and the Democrats are bold efforts to put people back to work.

    Obama’s lack of focus on jobs and the economy has certainly made his road more difficult in the South. We’ll know more about how Southern states are faring when the new state-by-state jobs numbers are released tomorrow.

    But despite some encouraging signs of new business hiring, the new stats will likely show the South is in the same situation as when Obama gave his State of the Union address in January, when eight out of 13 Southern states had unemployment rates higher than 10%, the national average.

    Of course, even a laser-like focus on jobs and the economy won’t completely turn around Obama’s and the Democrats’ popularity in the South, where a complex blend of cultural conservatism, right-wing agitation and racial animosity have driven Obama’s poll ratings (at least among whites) into the ground.

    But to look at it another way: If there is any one issue that could possibly revive progressive prospects in the South, focusing on the economy stands the best chance, for several reasons:

    1) It taps a deep vein of economic populism in the South: In 2006, a Pew Center survey found that 47% of all people who identified as “populists” lived in the South. At the time, the questions used to measure “populism” included support for repealing Bush’s tax cuts for the rich, belief that businesses make too much profit and support for a minimum wage increase.

    In 2010, Southern populism might include support for a Consumer Protection Agency and investing heavily in fast job-creation strategies.

    2) It plays to progressive strengths: Last week, when 19 GOP senators — including eight from Southern states with high unemployment rates — voted against extending jobless, progressives were given a gift.

    It was a clear example of how those representing everyday Southerners don’t speak for their interests — not in some abstract way, but on a concrete issue of concern to their families: receiving relief they need in this tough economy to put food on the table and provide for their families.

    But progressives can only win on these kind of issues if they are consistent. It won’t work to be silent about protecting consumers from credit industry greed one moment and then claim to champion debt-struggling families the next.

    3) It speaks to the lessons of history: History rarely repeats itself, and trying to draw neat lessons from the past is a tricky and dangerous exercise. But one of the most interesting chapters in Southern history is the way Roosevelt — widely decried in the media as a fierce liberal, however cautious he was in practice — was able to win over Southerners to New Deal politics.

    How did he do it? By an almost myopic focus on the economy (often, critics point out, to the exclusion of issues like civil rights).

    Reformers inside the New Deal pushed to ensure industrial and agricultural relief programs benefit a broad swath of Southerners. Projects like the Tennessee Valley Authority, hatched in 1933, were guided by a broad social mission of social uplift for struggling Appalachian communities.

    FDR had to be pushed from the outside, sometimes hard, as the insurgencies of textile workers in the famous Uprising of ’34 and the multi-racial Southern Tenant Farmers Union proved. But Roosevelt came to see how a progressive economic agenda could change the South. By 1938, FDR’s advisers were releasing a major report on economic conditions in the South to help rally political support for the New Deal agenda in the region.

    Obama and the Democrats have no silver bullet for winning over white Southerners. But there’s a sure-fire way they can make the situation worse: ignoring the South’s history of economic populism and the very real economic pain millions of Southerners face today.

  • Republic of Tea: What do the Texas primaries say about the Tea Party cause?

    tx_tea_nonfeat.jpgIt’s been about a year since the Tea Party phenomenon erupted on the political scene, primed by right-wing pundit anger and becoming a household word after they pulled off Tax Day protests last April in over 300 cities.


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    This week, the Tea cause got its first big political test in Texas: In a state that’s proved fertile ground for conservative protests, several Tea-aligned candidates threw their hats into the ring to challenge Republicans across the state in Tuesday’s primaries.

    So what happened in Texas? And does it tell us about the state of Tea Party politics in America?

    First, the returns. The news headlines have been unforgiving: “Lackluster Showing Dampens Tea Party” (Houston Chronicle), “Tea Party Fizzles” (Hearst Newspapers).

    And going by pure win/loss percentage, Texas Tea partiers may have little to celebrate. They can claim at most three victories: Roy Morales, who won the GOP nod for the 29th Congressional district, centered around Houston; Don Summers, who bumped off the incumbent Harris County tax assessor/collector; and David Simpson, who took out State Rep. Tommy Merrit of Longview.

    But the most interesting and indicative campaign was that of Debra Medina, the Tea-favored candidate for governor. As the AP notes, she was hardly the ideal candidate: short on money, low on name recognition in a race challenging an incumbent governor and sitting U.S. Senator. Medina even lost Tea Party votes for saying the U.S. government may have been involved in 9/11.

    Medina ended up winning 18.5% of the Republican primary vote, which you can view one of two ways.

    The positive spin: Given all the negatives Medina’s campaign faced, for an upstart protest candidate to get nearly one out of five GOP votes was a major accomplishment. It’s close to the 20% threshold one Texas political observer said would allow Tea partiers to declare success.

    On the other hand, at a time when anti-incumbent sentiment is at a rolling boil, it says something that Medina didn’t win a single Texas county — not even her current home of Wharton County, where she became GOP chair in 2004, or Bee County, where she was born and raised. And if Medina could only get 18.5% among Republicans in the primary, how bad would she do in a general election?

    In many ways, Medina is a good barometer for how the Tea Party is doing nationally. Not yet a full-blown movement or a well-organized political force, Tea partying remains an appealing attitude and powerful political current for discontented conservatives. And as Texas shows, it can be channeled in different — and even conflicting — directions.

    But winning isn’t everything — especially this early in the game. The Tea Party has already scored a big success in Texas and elsewhere by moving the entire political debate to the right. Medina’s dark horse campaign forced her competitors, especially a desperate Sen. Hutchison, embrace increasingly conservative positions.

    Whatever the election returns, Tea partiers continue to have a big impact on public attitudes. In a recent poll in Tennessee, 9% of the general population — not just Republicans — said they were “active” in the Tea Party effort, and 29% had a favorable view of it.

    They also remain a political player, as the state GOP in South Carolina — one of the safer states to be a Republican — has learned in a series of widely-publicized negotiations to keep Tea Party activists in the party fold.

    There’s are two final reasons why the Tea Party cause will continue to exert influence far beyond its numbers: visibility and money.

    Thanks to TV and radio personalities like Rush Limbaugh (20+ million listeners) and Glenn Beck (3+ million TV audience, 9+ million radio), Tea Party activists will always have a champion and voice (unlike protesters and political challengers on the left).

    As for money, let’s just say that the handful of men who dumped 342 chests of tea into the Boston Harbor in 1773 likely didn’t have the backing of a corporate front group like Americans for Prosperity (2006 income: $4.2 million).

    Whatever the surface-level conflicts between the rough-edged Tea partiers in their smoother conservative cousins, as long as they have a big media megaphone and a basic commitment to protecting the interests of the wealthy, they’ll remain a political force to be reckoned with.

  • Senators who voted against extending jobless benefits hail from states devastated by recession

    Late yesterday, Kentucky Republican Sen. Jim Bunning relented on a multi-day filibuster that was holding up passage of a bill including a 30-day extension on unemployment benefits.


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    Bunning’s retreat allowed the bill to reach the Senate floor, where it quickly passed 78-19 and was signed into law by President Obama last night (the House had passed a similar measure last week).

    The Kentucky senator’s intransigence may turn out to be a political blunder, just at a time when the GOP was gaining political momentum. Fellow Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine criticized Bunning’s move, saying over 500 jobless would lose benefits in the next week in her home state.

    It’s also unlikely to endear Bunning and Republicans in states hard-hit by the recession and facing high unemployment.

    Of the 19 Senators who voted against the package including jobless benefits after the filibuster ended, eight of them come from states that face jobless rates higher than the national average — all but one of them (Sen. Ensign of Nevada) from the South.

    SenJoblessBenefits 2.jpg
    As the chart shows, Republicans in the South who voted against the bill are especially vulnerable to charges that they’re putting politics ahead of the interests of their own recession-rocked constituents.

    These are the kind of votes that could prove costly for Republicans where they face challengers in 2010, including North Carolina, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

    It could even be an issue in states like Texas, where — despite having an unemployment rate below the national average — over a quarter million residents lost jobs in 2009. But ironically, the vote was cast by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who on the same day lost in her primary bid defend her senate seat.

  • Friday Poll Watch: What if there’s a scandal and the media doesn’t report it? Lessons from North Carolina

    Quick: What causes a politician’s popularity to tank?

    A controversial vote, weak performance, general voter unrest — all can cause poll numbers to drift downward.

    But for your approval ratings to really bottom out, it takes a scandal.

    John Edwards knows this. So does former N.C. Gov. Mike Easley, a once popular politician who, after months of being dogged about campaign finance problems, finds his approvals at a shockingly low 16%.

    But who creates political scandals? The media, of course (often thanks to intel provided by operatives from the other side).

    Which is why it’s more than a bit odd how Ben Niolet, a conservative political writer for the Raleigh News & Observer, decided to cover news of Easley’s popularity nosedive this week. In a Feb. 23 post, Niolet noted the ex-guv’s latest poll stats, and then wrote:

    The polls [sic] results are hardly surprising, given the steady beat of stories about federal and state investigations into Easley’s administration.

    That link Niolet included on the word “beat” is, surprisingly, to the News & Observer’s own full-court coverage of the Easley scandal.

    Niolet’s post is more than strangely self-referential: I think it also points to deeper problems with how the N&O and media cover political scandals and polls.

    First, isn’t it a bit unsavory for the N&O to take credit for causing the demise of Easley’s popularity? I realize the old-school mantra of “we report, you decide” is quaint in today’s post-objective media world.

    But the N&O’s approach, which apparently amounts to “we told you what to think about Easley, and you believed us!” seems to be taking things too far — or at least they should be more open about their agenda.

    Second: If the N&O really does believe it deserves credit for bringing down Easley, what does that say about their coverage of other politicians?

    For example: Is the reason that North Carolina’s Republican candidates for governor aren’t also as unpopular as rocking chairs at a cat convention because they haven’t done anything wrong — or because the N&O didn’t report it?

    That isn’t a rhetorical question. As Facing South reported last October, in the final hours of the state hearings into Gov. Easley — closely followed by Niolet and the N&O — Democratic lawyers produced evidence that three of Easley’s Republican challengers were likely guilty of failing to report campaign flights, the very issue that prompted the Easley investigation.

    To recap, an affidavit from Anthony Asbridge, an IRS investigator for 22 years, documented likely campaign reporting failures by at least three GOP gubernatorial candidates:

    * State legislator Patrick Ballantine, Republican nominee for governor in 2004, “conducted an eight (8) city campaign tour by airplane, visiting, among others, the town of Wilmington, Manteo, and Greenville.” The flights apparently were never reported.

    * Fred Smith, a 2008 GOP gubernatorial candidate, “announced his intention to visit each of the one hundred (100) counties
    in the State” by plane, and apparently did so. But his campaign didn’t report the flights, something he was required to do even if he owned the plane.

    * Bill Graham was also a Republican candidate in 2008 and made over 150 flights on a Beech aircraft. Yet Asbridge’s investigation found “no report of any disbursement for the payment of air travel … nor any report of any in-kind contribution” for the flights.

    These bombshells barely registered in the News & Observer’s (or the rest of the media’s)  wall-to-wall coverage of the Easley hearings. No blaring headlines. No award-seeking investigative series. No personal swipes chalking up the GOP’s apparent campaign violations to a misguided sense of “privilege” and “arrogance.”

    In short, no scandal.

    So is it any surprise that
    Ballantine, Smith and Graham aren’t now reading dispatches from Niolet
    that
    their approval ratings are in the toilet?

    The issue came up again this week, when the state Democratic Party held a press conference drawing attention to apparent inconsistencies in the campaign reports of another Republican candidate, Charlotte’s Pat McCrory.

    But in two different news stories, the N&O (Niolet again) downplayed the allegations as merely “the political equivalent of a returned serve” to GOP charges against current Gov. Beverly Perdue (D).

    The obvious subtext: Move along, nothing to see here but partisan bickering. Certainly nothing as interesting as Easley, whose transgressions —
    while legally similar — somehow suggested a more profound moral failing.

    Just to be clear: The point isn’t that the GOP’s campaign reporting problems get Easley off the hook, or that two wrongs make a right.

    The issue is that, if the News & Observer truly believes in their power to shape public opinion and influence the fate of politicians and politics — and they’ve made no secret about that — shouldn’t they use that power more even-handedly and responsibly?

  • RATE HIKE BLUES: Health insurers unleash big premium increases despite record profits

    WellPoint CEO Angely Braly.JPGJust as President Obama’s push for health reform was threatening to collapse, big insurance companies may have given Democrats just the ammunition they need to win — if they can capitalize on it.


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    In the wake of public outcry over WellPoint/Anthem Blue Cross of California’s plan to jack up premiums by 39% for over 1 million members — 10 times the rate of inflation — news is emerging of similar rate increases across the South and country, driving up costs to consumers as high as 70%.

    News reports show the premium hikes aren’t limited to any one state or insurance company:

    * GEORGIA: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Blue Cross Blue Shield of Georgia pushed up rates on one man by 72%. A BCBS-GA spokeswoman admits rates for many others are increasing up to 30%. WellPoint, a national insurer active in Georgia, jacked up premiums by 21% in 2009 and a similar increase is likely for 2010, according to a report released yesterday [pdf] by the Center for American Progress.

    * NORTH CAROLINA:
    In North Carolina, the state Blue Cross Blue Shield affiliate “recently increased premiums 50 percent or more” for some members, “forcing them to drop coverage or switch to cheaper plans with fewer
    benefits and higher deductibles,” according to the News & Observer.

    * VIRGINIA: WellPoint is planning to increase rates 7 to 15% this year, according to the CAP report. [pdf]

    The reports are especially alarming given that — unlike other industries in the current recession — WellPoint and other health insurers are enjoying record profits. According to a report released this week [pdf] by Health Care for America Now:

    Executives and shareholders of the five biggest for-profit health insurers, UnitedHealth
    Group Inc., WellPoint Inc., Aetna Inc., Humana Inc., and Cigna Corp., enjoyed combined profit of $12.2 billion in 2009, up 56 percent from the previous year. It was the best year ever for Big Insurance.

    The pro-reform advocacy group goes on to say those profits were realized in part by “leaving
    behind 2.7 million Americans who had been in private health plans.”

    Public outrage over the massive hikes would seem to be a boost to Obama and Democrats, who until now have seemed adept at snatching defeat out of the jaws of health reform victory.

    At a White House health care summit today, Obama will discuss his plan create a new agency to review “excessive” rate hikes by state insurers. Obama is also pushing a provision from the Senate health bill which would provide up to $250 million to states to beef up their review of rate increases.

    According to the Dallas Morning News, that would make a big difference in states like Texas which don’t regularly review insurance rate increases. Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas, one of the state’s largest insurers, says it plans to increase premiums an average of 10% per customer in 2010.

    UPDATE: HEALTH INSURANCE MONOPOLIES

    The fact that insurance companies can dramatically increase rates without worrying too much about losing their customer base (and therefore long-term profits) is in part related to their near-monopoly control of the market in many states.

    It’s received almost no press, but the American Medical Association released their latest report on consolidation in the health industry this week. From the press release:

    Competition in the health insurance industry is disappearing with
    more markets across the country dominated by one or two insurers […]

    In 24 of the 43 states reported in the new AMA report, the two largest insurers had a combined market share of 70 percent or more. Last year, just 18 of 42 states had two insurers with a combined market share of 70 percent or more.

    “The near total collapse of competitive and dynamic health insurance markets has not helped patients,” said AMA President J. James Rohack, M.D. “As demonstrated by proposed rate hikes in California and other states, health insurers have not shown greater efficiency and lower health care costs. Instead, patient premiums, deductibles and co-payments have soared without an increase in benefits in these
    increasingly consolidated markets.”

    Which is exactly what proponents of the public option have been saying all along.

  • Southern whites and Obama, part II: What about North Carolina?

    As I wrote last week, Barack Obama is a popular president — just not in the South, a region where his extremely low approval ratings, especially among Southern whites, pull down the national averages.

    In fact, while Obama’s ratings have largely stayed positive in every other part of the country, in the South they nosedived as early as March 2009, suggesting Southern whites never really gave Obama much of a chance.

    That broad snapshot is interesting, but you might be thinking: The South is a diverse and changing region. What about a state like North Carolina — a place considered more politically moderate than, say, Alabama, and a Southern state Obama eked out victory in 2008?

    To investigate, I looked at the state-level survey data put out by Public Policy Polling, our reputable local pollsters. Every month, PPP has polled Obama’s approval ratings in North Carolina including break-downs for race.

    Tracking his net approval ratings (those who “approve” minus those who “disapprove”), here’s how the trend lines look for black and white* North Carolinians from January 2009 until now:

    ObamaNCApprovalBW.jpg

    Chart: Institute for Southern Studies, 2010. Source: Public Policy Polling.

    The N.C. polling data tells us some striking things:

    * N.C. WHITES GAVE UP ON OBAMA QUICKLY: As in the overall South poll, in the beginning many white North Carolinians signaled to pollsters they’d give Obama the benefit of the doubt: In January 2009, 61% approved of the Obama transition. But by February, all bets were off: Obama’s net approval went into negative territory among N.C. whites, and has continued to steadily sink ever since.

    * BLACK SUPPORT HAS REMAINED SOLID: Mirroring national polls, the support for Obama among African Americans in N.C. has been strong and unwavering: Net approval has rested around 80% ever since Obama came into office.

    * A GROWING RACIAL DIVIDE: The result of these two trend lines is a growing chasm between blacks and whites in North Carolina (as in the South generally) about Obama. In January 2009, the white/black gap over approval of Obama’s transition was 43 points. By last summer, the approval ratings divide ballooned to an over 100-point difference between how blacks and whites in N.C. perceive the Obama presidency. It now stands at 110 points.

    So much for that “post-racial” future.

    * NOTE: Given the growing racial/ethnic diversity in N.C. and the South, I would have liked to have seen results for Hispanics/Latinos, Asians and other groups. Public Policy Polling did include an “other” racial category in their state polls, but the sample ended up being too small for the results to be reliable (average margin of error over +/- 20).

    A national PPP poll this month [PDF] found 76% of self-identified Hispanics approved of Obama’s performance (net approval: +62). Even if the figure is slightly lower in N.C. and Southern states, it still supports the idea that whites in general — and Southern whites in particular — are what’s been dragging Obama’s poll numbers down.

  • Friday Poll Watch: Did Southern whites ever give Obama a chance?

    NOTE: I’m back from a family funeral in South Carolina. Thanks to my colleague Sue Sturgis for holding down the fort in my absence.

    Barack Obama.jpgIt’s time for another Friday Poll Watch — here are some interesting numbers I’ve run across lately:

    DID SOUTHERNERS EVER GIVE OBAMA A CHANCE?

    It’s a point we’ve made before, but the latest DailyKos/Research 2000 weekly tracking poll drives it home: Obama is a popular president — just not in the South.

    According to the poll, Obama has had net positive approval ratings every month he’s been in office in the North, Midwest and West.

    But in the South, Obama barely had time to change the drapes in the White House before his  net approval ratings went into negative
    territory. By early March 2009, just two months after his inauguration, Obama’s net approval went below zero in the Southern region.

    Obama’s net approval in the South had sunk to a staggering net -40 points in August 2009 — still a mere eight months since his inauguration. It’s stayed there ever since.

    Given that over 95% of African-Americans nationally still approve of Obama’s performance, the vast majority of Obama’s rapidly-declining fortunes in the South can be chalked up to one demographic: Southern whites.

    Many Southern whites didn’t like Obama to begin with. For example: In 2008 exit polls, over 14% of Louisiana voters openly said Obama’s race was a “factor” in voting against him — and that was in a state where more whites are Democrats than Republicans.

    But it’s notable that, as of January 2009, despite losing two-thirds of the Southern Electoral College vote, the president still had a +30 net approval in the South. Just two months later, the good will had mostly faded; by summer, it had entirely vanished and turned into fierce opposition.

    Maybe Southerners were just putting on a show when they gave Obama a thumbs-up to pollsters at the beginning; maybe they sincerely were hopeful he’d bring change.

    Either way, it’s clear that white Southerners didn’t give Obama much of a chance, and were comfortable to openly turn against him just weeks after he settled into office.

    For more on this topic, see part 2: Southern whites and Obama: What about North Carolina?

    IT REALLY IS THE ECONOMY

    Pollsters make their living telling us about week-to-week horse races and the rise and fall of politicians. But The Monkey Cage points to research by Jim Stimson (via Ezra Klein) reminds us that this isn’t how everyday people see the world.

    Stimson has two excellent charts: The first shows that the public’s view of the President, Congress and even governors all trend together — in other words, when things aren’t going well, people get frustrated with government in general, not just one or other party or piece of government.
    GovtApproval.PNG

    So what causes the public to approve or disapprove of government? The economy, as chart two shows:

    Economy Approval.PNG

    It’s not a perfect correlation, but it’s pretty tight — the only time the pattern didn’t hold was after 9/11, for obvious reasons.

    What does this mean? That the public will have a better perception of government in general — including its component pieces of Obama and sitting lawmakers in Washington and at the state level — if and when the economy improves.

    FICKLE MILLENNIALS?

    The Millennial Generation — the 18-29 age group — were a big part of Obama’s victory and the Democratic resurgence in 2006-2008. But as economic troubles continue and high hopes are tempered, Pew finds the strong pro-Democratic lean of younger voters is softening:

    The Democratic advantage over the Republicans in party affiliation
    among young voters, including those who “lean” to a party, reached a
    whopping 62% to 30% margin in 2008. But by the end of 2009 this
    32-point margin had shrunk to just 14 points: 54% Democrat, 40%
    Republican.

    But Pew adds that “this age group continues to favor the Democratic Party more than do
    other generations.” And while it’s hard to chart the political identity of a generation — if for no other reason because a person’s views will evolve as they get older — Pew also argues that “the underlying political values of this new
    generation continue to be significantly more liberal than those of
    other generations on many measures.”

    Short-term, however, it’s clear this adds to the already mounting problems for Democrats in 2010.

    QUICK TAKES

    * MEET THE FLINSTONES: Majority of Texans don’t believe in evolution.

    * NC <3 GAYS IN MILITARY: Majority in military-friendly North Carolina OK with gays serving openly in military, support repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.

    * HOW BIG IS THE PARTY? The Tea Party, that is — estimates of national support range up to 18%.

  • Where are the green jobs?

    NOTE: The following contribution comes from Claudia Rowe, a writer with the Equal Voice newspaper of the Marguerite Casey Foundation.

    By Claudia Rowe, Equal Voice

    By now, the drumbeat is impossible to ignore: Job, jobs, jobs. With one in 10 adults unemployed, President Obama had little choice but to highlight jobs during his Jan. 27 State of the Union address. He mentioned the term nearly 30 times during the hour-long speech.

    But among people in low-income and minority communities – millions who had felt a surge of excitement at the president’s vow to use his $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act for lifting families out of poverty – the president’s words are beginning to ring hollow. For them, the mantra has shifted and it sounds like this: Track, track, track.

    Despite $500 million set aside to create “green jobs” for disadvantaged workers – including a program titled “Pathways Out of Poverty” – there is no method in place to monitor exactly where Recovery Act dollars have landed on the ground, and few requirements to ensure that low-income communities benefit. Furthermore, there never were.

    “This is hardly the first time that poverty has been used as a rationalization to pass a government program which – when you read the fine print – doesn’t address poverty,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director of the nonprofit watchdog group Good Jobs First. “It certainly goes to this issue of how can you tell the recovery is really benefitting those who need it most? Obviously you can’t.”

    Central to the president’s stated vision for the Recovery Act was the notion that the new “green economy” – from wind turbine construction to home weatherization – would generate opportunities previously closed to the poor, and advocates like LeRoy jumped in fast, insisting that the government require states to provide data on the race, gender and residential ZIP codes of those receiving training or jobs. They also asked that employers be mandated to note employees’ work hours, pay per hour and whether health insurance benefits, if any, were included.

    Not a single request was granted.

    “Poverty is just the bait,” LeRoy said. “It may sound a little cynical, but that’s the truth.”

    Requiring such information would be new terrain for the federal government, he acknowledged, though the complete lack of it suggests to him that all the talk about creating new pathways to prosperity was, well, just talk.

    In Washington, D.C., officials appear flummoxed by the very notion of collecting such data.

    “I don’t even know how you’d do that,” said Cheryl Arvidson, a spokeswoman for the administration’s Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board.

    Race and Jobs: Mum’s the Word

    Social-policy experts, however, have been urging exactly this kind of tracking for months – and offering ways to put it in place.

    “For us, the response has been just silence, kind of a wall of silence,” said Jason Reece, a senior researcher at the Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at Ohio State University. “The administration is very shy about talking about race issues in particular, and a good way of not talking about race and marginalized groups is just don’t collect the data. It’s extremely frustrating.”

    Last fall, the Kirwan Institute began to do some tracking of its own, and the results were dismal. Of $25 billion in federal stimulus funds distributed directly to private firms in transportation and defense, only $1.6 billion – just over 6 percent – went to black-, Latino-, or women-owned businesses. By January 2010, there share of the pie had dropped to 5 percent.

    In Florida, where Kirwan researchers joined with activists at the Miami Workers Center to take a detailed look at the real-life effects of stimulus funding, results were similarly perplexing. Minority-owned firms received contracts worth only 12.6 percent of total value awarded in-state. And, of the 40 companies that won business funded by the Recovery Act, only four responded to Kirwan’s requests for data.

    “There’s this sense of desperation from local communities because they’re not seeing the effects of the stimulus,” said Matt Martin, a researcher with Kirwan, describing reaction to the institute’s report.

    And, the document noted: “Construction work tends to rely on exclusive networks. African Americans in particular have a hard time breaking into the business. This appears to be the case with the current stimulus-funded projects as well.”

    Jobs are vital, of course, to reviving the economy as a whole and the estimated number of those created or saved by the Recovery Act ranges from 640,000 to 2 million, depending on who’s counting. But the notion of green jobs had been greeted as a potential godsend for families struggling against decades of entrenched poverty. A green economy could employ low-skilled workers in solid, family-wage jobs while simultaneously aiding the environment. It seemed like a win for everyone.

    In Seattle, Michael Woo of the grassroots group Got Green spent last summer leading throngs of young people through blighted streets, showing them the possibilities inherent in every dilapidated home and broken rooftop.

    “Everywhere they saw problems, the solution was a job – a green job,” Woo said.

    He is not nearly so sure of that now.

    Despite a Washington law directing that minority and low-income workers be included in Recovery Act spending, Woo – who was part of an Equal Voice coalition lobbying the state for equity – has seen little actual hiring and zero effort to track exactly who is being funneled into the jobs pipeline. Of the 10 would-be workers he selected for weatherization training, only one, Yirm Seck, found employment, and that lasted for a total of three weeks.

    All Trained Up, But Nowhere to Go

    The $20-an-hour job was nice while it lasted, said Seck, hired by a nonunion firm to weatherize homes in a leafy, upper-class area of Seattle. But it wasn’t quite what he’d hoped for.

    “My expectations were that I’d complete the course, get certified and there would be avenues linking me to an actual job,” said Seck. “Instead, it’s ‘Hey, great, you’re certified, and, yes, there’s money here. But we can’t give you an actual date to start work.’”

    Despite completing two years of college, Seck, 28, spends most of his time parenting a 3-year-old daughter while her mother supports the family by working at a Seattle supermarket. He is African American and has been without steady employment for more than two years.

    “I thought the jobs program was a lot more organized,” Seck said. “But most of the people who went through those training classes still aren’t employed. I was one of the lucky few.”

    The president championed a green economy to help the poor, but data from the Applied Research Center suggest that the field is “highly exclusionary.” A November 2009 report noted that blacks and Latinos – with poverty rates more than twice those of whites – are poorly represented among green workers. The disparities are even starker for women of color: Only 1.5 percent of black women were employed in green jobs. For Latinas, it was 1 percent.

    “If you don’t recover the communities that have been hardest hit, there is not going to be a recovery,” said Hashim Benford, an organizer with Miami Workers Center. “We’d heard that there was going to be all this green jobs money. We had this concept of a jobs pipeline that would train people and link them up to employment. But from what I’ve seen nothing’s moving.”

    There are bright spots: New Jersey, for example, requires that half of all weatherization projects be performed by workers from low-income communities. Portland, Ore., has similar mandates. And in Los Angeles, an ordinance passed last spring is expected to create at least 60 jobs for residents of low-income communities then retrofitting city building.

    But such examples are few.

    Green For All, a national nonprofit monitoring progress in this sector, examined energy-efficiency bills in 30 states and found fewer than a third targeted low-income communities or workers of color.

    “Frankly speaking, sometimes people don’t care about the demographics – they just want to get the jobs out there,” said Vien Truong, a policy analyst with the group. “In Oakland, we have an unemployment rate of 18 percent, so it’s ‘Create green jobs – check.’”

    In the Deep South, few state policymakers are even talking about racial realities behind the Recovery Act.

    “Jobs for our community?” said Leroy Johnson, executive director of the Mississippi civil rights group Southern Echo. “It’s not working at all. It was all good thoughts and good policy. The problem is, it’s been left in the hands of governors. Where you have good governors, maybe you have a shot.”

    Johnson says his suggestion to get black workers certified for road building through apprenticeship programs was simply waved away.

    Elsewhere, trainers continue to reach out and encourage the hopeful-and-unemployed. But the longer this goes on without a job at the finish line, the more worried community organizers become.

    Ian Kim, director of the Green Collar Jobs Campaign at the Ella Baker Center for Human Rights in Oakland, suspects there is already a glut of workers trained and ready to install solar paneling, for example, while projects to employ them linger far behind.

    “A year ago I was one of those saying ‘Wow, this is a huge opportunity. But it can be really disappointing to find out that even the best programs can’t place half their graduates,” Kim said. “I don’t want to be setting people up, training them for jobs that don’t exist.”

    Claudia Rowe

  • Southern states most at risk from 2010 Census undercount

    Ever since the Census Bureau’s offbeat 30 second Super Bowl ad, there’s been a lot more buzz about the upcoming 2010 Census count and the impact of an under-count in your state (which suggests that even if the ad wasn’t great, it succeeded in getting people talking).


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    Hopefully Southerners — and not just those in Who Dat nation — watched the game and got the message, because history and current trends suggest the 13 states in the South are most at risk of not getting fully counted.

    This will not only mean billions in desperately-needed federal funds for Medicaid and other programs, but will also skew the new political districts that will be drawn in most states after the 2010 Census wraps up.

    THE 2000 EXPERIENCE

    To see just what the South stands to lose, let’s go back 10 years to the 2000 Census. The Census Monitoring Board estimates that the official population count that year under-counted the U.S. population by about 3.3 million people.

    Altogether, those “lost” people represented about 1.18% of the population, what they call the “under-count rate.” [Here is a PDF copy of the Census Monitoring Board’s final report to Congress about the 2000 under-count.]

    Southern states may have suffered the most from under-counting in 2000:

    * All 13 Southern states were under-counted, the only region in the country that all states were under-represented.

    * Of the estimated 3.3 million U.S. residents not counted in 2000, 39% were in Southern states. In other words, nearly two out of five of the “missing” residents were in the South.

    * Every Southern state had a higher under-count rate than the national average. The under-count rate in 13 Southern states was 1.4%, compared to 1.18% nationally.

    2000 Census South.jpg

    The economic impact is estimated to have been huge in some states. By 2012, Texas is projected to have lost over $1 billion from eight federal grant programs. Other big losers will be Georgia and North Carolina, who will each be shorted over $250 million in federal funding.

    A UCLA study estimates that in 2000, every 1,000 people not counted lost over $26,000 for each state.

    But more than money is at stake.
    After the 2010 Census numbers are released, political lines will be redrawn across the South through reapportionment — the redrawing of Congressional districts — and redistricting, changes states will make to their political boundaries.

    An accurate count will be especially important to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Texas, all of which stand to gain at least one Congressional seat and Electoral College vote after 2010. North Carolina is on the “bubble” of states that could possibly gain a seat, and Louisiana is bracing itself to lose one after failures in the Katrina recovery led to population declines.

    MORE UNDER-COUNTING IN 2010?

    Heading into the 2010 Census count, Southern states are once again uniquely at risk of being under-counted and the resulting loss of political and economic clout.

    Why is the South under-represented in the Census? Because it has high numbers of demographic groups that historically have high under-counts. These include:

    * Low-income communities
    * African-American communities
    * New immigrant communities
    * Rural communities
    * Military families

    The economic recession has made an accurate count even harder, not only by depleting state Census outreach budgets but also by causing people to become more transient, uprooted from lost jobs and foreclosed homes.

    So how about that Super Bowl ad? Some criticized the $25 million price tag (couldn’t CBS have cut them a better deal?). Census officials shot back that if just 1% of those watching the Saints/Colts contest (estimated over 100 million) were swayed to return their forms, it will save them $25 million in outreach costs.

    Next week: How do we increase Census participation? We’ll look at lessons from the ground in effective Census outreach strategies.

  • Who dat in the New Orleans mayor’s office?

    Mitch Landrieu.jpgWith the Saints en route to a dazzling Super Bowl victory and Mardi Gras celebrations ramping up towards Fat Tuesday, in New Orleans it was almost an afterthought that they were electing a mayor this weekend.


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    But in many ways, Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu’s landslide victory in the mayoral race was just as eye-opening as a Terry Porter interception or a shiny Shangri-La krewe float.

    Landrieu was heavily favored in the 11-strong field of mayoral hopefuls. But the final votes were even more lopsided than expected: When the dust settled, Landrieu garnered 66% of the city vote, easily enough to bypass a run-off and assume leadership of the city.

    Here are some numbers and history to give you a sense of just how big Landrieu’s landslide victory was:

    * Out of 366 precincts in Orleans Parish, Landrieu got 50% or more of the vote in all but 10 of them, or 97% of all precincts. Landrieu was the leader, winning the plurality of votes, in all precincts but one (09-45A, in far-east Lake Catherine).

    * Landrieu also won 64% of early voters, about two-thirds of which were African American voters.

    * Landrieu’s dominance is especially notable given that primaries for New Orleans mayoral races are usually at least somewhat competitive: Only three primary races have avoided run-offs in the last 24 years:

    NOLA MAYOR PRIMARY VOTE LEADERS, 1986 – 2010

    2010 – Mitch Landrieu – 66% (no run-off)
    2006 – Ray Nagin – 38% (won in run-off)
    2002 – Ray Nagin – 29% (won in run-off)
    1998 – Marc Morial – 79% (no run-off)
    1994 – Donald Mintz – 37% (lost in run-off to Marc Morial)
    1990 – Sidney Barthelemy – 54% (no run-off)
    1986 – William Jefferson – 39% (lost in run-off to Sidney Barthelemy)

    Landrieu clearly had a lot going for him: Name recognition, lineage in one of Louisiana’s most powerful political families, support from the state Democratic machine and a healthy campaign war chest.

    But Landrieu had many of those same advantages in 2006, when he pushed Ray Nagin to a run-off but ultimately lost 52-48.

    In the 2006 election, Nagin was propelled to victory largely thanks to massive turnout from African-American voters, who drove hundreds of miles from places like Atlanta, Houston and Memphis to ensure their voice was heard and the city’s black political heritage was protected.

    For various reasons, many African-American voters pulled the lever for Landrieu this time. But there are understandably mixed feelings about the first white mayor taking office since 1978, when Landrieu’s father Moon Landrieu left office.

    Beneath the excitement of the Super Bowl and Mardi Gras, one statistic from Saturday’s election reveals the ongoing struggles the people of New Orleans face: In 2006, there were 442 voting precincts in New Orleans.

    This year, there were only 366 precincts — a reflection of the fact that since Katrina, at least 20% of the population has never made it home.

  • Tea Time: What next for the tea party “movement?”

    Tea Baggers 2.jpgThis weekend, the tea party cause — which exploded on the scene in opposition to the stimulus package and Wall Street bailouts last spring — gets its closeup with its first major national meeting: The National Tea Party Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.


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    There’s no denying that the tea partiers are a real political phenomenon. But the convention comes at a time of growing inner turmoil among key activists and looming questions about the movement’s direction.

    Here are four key issues to watch heading into the tea party confab this weekend:

    1 – IS THERE A POPULIST IN THE BUILDING?
    Going to the tea party confab isn’t for those of modest means: On top of a $560 registration fee, attendees are staying at the “luxurious” Gaylord Opryland Resort ($149/night + $25/day parking, conference rates). Tickets are sold out, but the curious can still buy a $349 ticket to see Sarah Palin keynote the convention banquet tomorrow, a gig that will net her $100,000.

    For a movement focused on Washington excess, these big numbers have rankled many in the tea party ranks, as did news that the conference organizer — Memphis-area DUI lawyer Judson Phillips — saw the conference as a money-making venture.(Erick Erickson of the blog RedState: “I think it is a great con of people making money off the passions of others.”)

    Some of the sparring is just jockeying for position among self-anointed tea party leaders. But it also points to a real tension at the heart of the tea party, or any right-wing populist movement: the disconnect between the leadership, who aim to protect the interests of the wealthy, versus the realities of their less-privileged base, who must be persuaded that all of their economic hardships can be blamed on high taxes and big government.

    As the tea party cause grows — and as conservative leaders try to piggy-back on its success — the disconnect will grow between groups like FreedomWorks, the slick DC operation with $8 million in annual revenues (2008 director’s salary: $550,000), and grassroots outfits like Tea Party Patriots, a volunteer operation open to “anyone who identifies with the tea party movement.”

    2 – CAN THEY GET ORGANIZED? No one doubts they have passion. They also have a decent public image: A CNN poll this week found that one-third of the U.S. public has a favorable view of tea partiers.

    But organizationally, the movement is a mess. Relationships between the 12 leading tea party groups have been increasingly marked by bickering and turf wars. Ned Ryun of American Majority’s attacks on convention organizer Phillips are typical:

    “Who is this guy? What are his motivations? And what gives him the credibility to try to step in and insert himself as a leader of the movement?”

    The big issue now is how to relate to the Republican Party. Tea partiers are bitterly divided on the question: GOP operatives want to absorb the activist energy and channel it towards electoral victories in 2010 and beyond; many grassroots activists want to stay independent.

    These are dilemmas any opposition movement runs into: inside vs. outside, top-down or bottom-up, power vs. purity. But it’s an especially big challenge for the tea partiers, a group born out of anti-Washington anger who balk at the idea of being turned into foot soldiers for a system they despise.

    3 – WILL THE SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES TAKE OVER? So far, tea partiers have largely succeeded in maintaining peace between two wings of the conservative base: economic libertarians and “values voters.” But they’ve largely done that by downplaying the latter’s concerns over immigration, abortion and gay marriage; as Grover Norquest of Americans for Tax Reform noted, “[W]hen you talk to [tea party] leaders, they say, we
    just do economics. We don’t do other stuff.”

    But yesterday, the “kick off speaker” opening the convention was Tom Tancredo, the former Colorado congressman who has become a controversial leader of the anti-immigration movement. In his speech, Trancredo thundered that “people who could not spell the word vote or say it in
    English put a committed socialist ideologue in the White House.”

    Such dalliances into the murkier swamps of nativism and divisive social debates may appeal to people like religious conservatives in the GOP base, but it also risks further splintering the cause and driving away independents.

    4 – CAN THEY BROADEN THEIR BASE? Tancredo’s presence also points to another problem for the tea partiers: Their narrow social base. If you watched the town hall protests last year, the profile of typical convention attendee might sound familiar. As Jay Newton-Small of Time reports:

    Attendees were mostly white and older; there were more women than men.
    Some were Republicans, more were Independents. To a person they loved
    Sarah Palin. A couple were even Democrats.

    In our increasingly-diverse country, that means tea partiers are drawing from a shrinking base of voters and the public. Tennessee, where the conference is being held, has the fourth fastest-growing Latino/Hispanic population in the country. 17% of the state’s population is African-American, and 55% of Tennesseans under age 30 voted for Barack Obama.

    In other words, the tea partier’s base of “old, angry and white” puts them on the wrong side of where our country is headed demographically. It also makes them easy to dismiss as sentimental conservatives: afraid of change, more interested in fighting to bring back the good old ways rather than shaping the future.

  • ANALYSIS: Southerners a stronghold of far-right views in Republican Party

    This week, DailyKos released the eye-opening results of a poll of 2,000 Republicans across the country, which found that astonishingly large numbers of GOP voters believe President Obama is racist, a socialist, and a non-citizen — views that have become staples of far-right radio and TV pundits.

    As Sam Stein of the Huffington Post says:

    [The poll] illustrates the incredible paranoia enveloping the party and the
    intense pressure drawing lawmakers further and further away from
    political moderation.

    But the poll has one big flaw: 42% of those polled came from Southern states — way out of proportion with their share of Republican voters nationally.

    This over-sampling of Southern Republicans (846 total) skews the national results, but it also means the data gives us an especially rich picture of the views held by GOP voters in the South.

    And the picture is unmistakable: On almost every issue, Southern Republicans are far to the right of their national GOP brethren. In fact, GOP Southerners appear to be the driving base for some of the most extreme views circulating in the Republican Party today.

    To measure this, normally we’d compare the Southern results to the national average, and then see what the difference is. But since the poll disproportionately surveyed Southerners to start with, instead I looked at how the Southern answers compared to the next most conservative region.

    For example, here are four questions the poll asked Republicans about President Obama, with the Southern poll numbers compared to the next-highest region (in each of these cases, the Midwest):

    QUESTION: Should Barack Obama be impeached, or not?
    South: 42% yes
    Next-highest region: 38% yes
    Southern difference: +4%

    QUESTION: Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

    South: 43% no

    Next-highest region: 33% no

    Southern difference: +10%

    QUESTION: Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist?

    South: 67% yes

    Next-highest region: 61% yes

    Southern difference: +6%



    QUESTION: Do you believe Barack Obama wants the terrorists to win?

    South: 28% yes

    Next-highest region: 22% yes

    Southern difference: +6%

    An important reminder: These are just self-identified Southern Republicans — a big caveat, given that Democrats still have a voter registration advantage in most Southern states, even in “red states” that voted against Obama in 2008 (for example, Louisiana has twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans).

    It’s also true that Southerners are hardly alone in holding extreme views: The fact that “only” 60% of Republicans in the West, for example, believe that Obama is a socialist, or that 34% of GOP voters in the Northeast think the president should be impeached is hardly a testament to national moderation.

    But it’s also clear that the South remains a uniquely strong base for the GOP’s most extreme views. The embrace of Southern Republicans of the “birther” issue is especially notable, given its likely roots in discomfort with Obama’s cultural and racial heritage.

    In short: The poll doesn’t reflect a general shift to the right in the South. But it does show the growing hold of a certain form of far-right politics in Southern Republican circles, and a high level of receptivity among Republican Southerners to some of the conservative movement’s most extreme views.

  • HIGH-SPEED HYPOCRISY? A plan once embraced by Republicans now faces conservative attacks

    High Speed Train 2.jpgWhen President Obama announced $8 billion in federal grants for high-speed rail this week, Republicans and conservatives responded with bellows of outrage.

    Actually, the heckling started after Democrats passed the stimulus bill last year, which included earmarks for inter-city train lines. The Washington Post’s Robert Samuelson was typical in warning last August of “a rail boondoggle,moving at high speed.”

    Now grants are going out to a handful of states like Florida, where Obama visited yesterday to boost a future link between Tampa/St. Petersburg and Disney World. This latest news has been met with a barrage of criticism, with “boondoggle” still the attack of choice: Fox asked “Is High-Speed Rail Project an $8 Boondoggle?” Pundits Michelle Malkin and at the Reason Foundation followed suit. Yesterday Tea Party protesters took to the streets in Florida hoping to derail the project.

    (Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush won’t comment, although he once called it a “boondoggle of epic proportions” — remember that as you keep reading.)

    But the high-speed rail projects unveiled by the White House this week weren’t the brainchild of Obama and the Democrats. The genesis of these plans can be traced to the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) — a bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in 1991 and signed into law by Republican President George H.W. Bush.

    The ISTEA, as the federal Department of Transportation later noted, was “a landmark piece of legislation.” With Eisenhower’s interstate highway system “nearly complete,” the bill argued that the new challenge was to bring clarity and coordination to a transportation system marked by pork-barrel politics and chaos.

    Specifically, the ISTEA aimed to better integrate how we travel — planes, trains and automobiles — as well as the players involved: local, state and federal officials. It also pushed to ensure greater compliance with the Clean Air Act and other environmental standards.

    Although introduced by Democrats, the bill was warmly embraced by Republicans who helped it pass in landslide votes: 372-47 in the House, 79-8 in the Senate. The first President Bush signed the ISTEA into law on December 18, 1991.

    The bi-partisan ISTEA also set in motion plans for high-speed rail in the United States. For the first time, the bill authorized the creation of official high-speed “corridors“: big-traffic routes where states could receive federal funding to upgrade existing rail lines — improve track, remove risky crossings — for faster trains. The original ISTEA in 1991 authorized five such High Priority Corridors.

    Since then, 75 more corridors were put on the list — including two major routes added under the second President Bush in the Midwest (2001) and Northeast (2004). Put together, those routes are the ones you’ve seen in news reports (see here and here) about “Obama’s high-speed rail plan” this week:

    High Speed Rail Corridors.jpg

    Another big supporter of inter-city rail: the late Paul Weyrich, founder of the Heritage Foundation and often called the “father” of the modern conservative movement. A fan of trains and public transport, Weyrich was part of the federal Surface Transportation Commission, which before expiring in 2008 issued a report heartily endorsing upgraded intercity rail projects:

    The Commission believes that Intercity Passenger Rail is a critical missing link in the Nation’s surface transportation system. Over the past 50 years, passenger rail lines have shrunk dramatically in parts of the country … Intercity passenger rail investment would help meet important national energy and environmental goals by shifting travel to trains, which consume approximately 17 percent less energy per passenger mile than air carriers and 21 percent less energy per passenger mile than automobiles.

    In fact, Weyrich wanted even stronger language, and wrote an entire passage — approved by the commission on a 9-3 vote — arguing for federal funding of rail projects that was mysteriously removed by the Bush administration from the final report. Weyrich’s text focused on transit within cities, but also included these words (later deleted without explanation) endorsing new rail lines between cities:

    Intercity passenger rail was a crucial factor in the settlement and
    economic development of the United States. It was the primary means of
    mid-and long-distance transportation from the mid-1800’s until the early
    1950’s. It provided a vital connection between the East and West
    Coasts, opened the Western and Central United States to settlement, and
    was important to the military in transporting troops and supplies.

    Weyrich would surely surprised to see the high-speed rail projects announced this week, so heartily embraced by Republicans and conservatives not long ago, so viciously attacked as “boondoggles” by the right-wing politicians and pundits of today.

  • Dispatch from Haiti: “An opportunity to change and do good together”

    The following dispatch comes from Bill Quigley, a frequent contributor to Facing South and other online publications. A long-time advocate for human rights in Haiti and a veteran of the post-Katrina recovery, Quigley sent us this dispatch from Port au Prince, Haiti this morning.

    bill quigley.jpgBy Bill Quigley

    Hundreds of thousands of people are living and sleeping on the
    ground in Port au Prince.

    Many have no homes, their homes destroyed by
    the earthquake. I am sleeping
    on the ground as well — surrounded by
    nurses, doctors and humanitarian workers who sleep on the ground every night. The buildings that are not on the ground have big cracks in them and fallen sections so no one should be sleeping inside.

    There are sheet cities everywhere. Not tent cities. Sheet cities. Old people and babies and everyone else under sheets held up by ropes hooked onto branches pounded into the ground.

    With the rainy
    season approaching, one of the emergency needs of Haitians is to get tents. I have seen hundreds of little red topped Coleman pup tents among the sheet shelters. There are tents in every space, from soccer fields and parks to actually in the streets. There is a field
    with
    dozens
    of majestic beige tents from Qatar marked Islamic Relief. But real
    tents are outnumbered by sheet shelters by a ratio of 100 to 1.


    Rescues continue but the real emergency remains food, water, healthcare and shelter for millions.


    Though helicopters thunder through the skies, actual relief of food and water and shelter remains mimimal to non-existent in most neighborhoods.  

    Haitians are helping Haitians. Young men have
    organized into teams to guard communities of homeless families. Women care for their own children as well as others now orphaned. Tens of thousands are missing and presumed dead.

    The scenes of destruction boggle the mind. The scenes of
    homeless families, overwhelmingly little children, crush the heart.


    But hope remains. Haitians say and pray that God must have a
    plan. Maybe Haiti will be rebuilt in a way that allows all Haitians to
    participate and
    have a chance at a dignified life with a home, a school, and a job.

    One young Haitian man said, “One good sign is the solidarity of the world. Muslim doctors,
    Jewish doctors, Christian doctors all come to help us. We see children in Gaza collecting toys for Haitian children. It looks very bad right now, but this is a big opportunity for the world and Haiti to change and do good together.”

    Help support Haiti relief — donate to NC Haiti Action! So far the Institute for Southern Studies community has raised over $8,500 for three excellent groups working in Haiti: Doctors without Borders, the Haiti Emergency Relief Fund and Partners in Health. Go make a donation now at one of these two sites:

    Donate Now.jpg


    (Front-page photo shows a woman in the Haitian coastal city of Leogane cooking plantains for her family and passers-by from their sheet house. Photo by DalexFilms.)

  • The Southern State of the Union

    As President Obama prepares to deliver his State of the Union address tonight, here’s a snapshot of some of the challenges facing Southern states — the very places Obama is having the roughest time.


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    But first, a little political trivia: Newly-elected GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell will be the third Virginian to deliver the SOTU response in the last five years. In 2006, Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine did the honors, and in 2007 it was Sen. Jim Webb. Message: Yes, Virginia, you are a swing state!

    On to some signs of the state of our region:

    SOUTHERN STATE OF THE UNION INDEX

    Out of 13 Southern states,* number with unemployment rates over 10%: 8

    Percent of African-Americans unemployed nationally: 16.4%

    Percent of African-Americans unemployed in South Carolina: 20.4% (#1 in country)

    Of 10 states with the lowest median income, number that are in the South: 8

    Of 10 states with the highest number of occupational fatalities, number in the South 5

    Education spending per pupil in the state of New York: $15,981

    Education spending per pupil in Tennessee: $7,113

    Of 15 states with highest percentage of population incarcerated, number in the South: 11

    Of 15 states with the highest percentage of population without health insurance, number in the South: 8

    Of 20 Congressional districts containing the highest percentage of
    residents without health care, number in Florida in Texas: 15

    Percent of the population of Mississippi enrolled in Medicaid: 21.2% (#1 in country)

    Percent of West Virginia population enrolled in Medicare: 17.4% (#1 in country)

    Rank of Texarkana, Arkansas/Texas, among U.S. metro areas having the highest percentage of their health insurance market monopolized by one company: 1

    Percent of those enrolled in TRICARE, the federally-backed health insurance program for active-duty military and retirees, that are in Southern states: 47%

    Number of Congressional seats and Electoral College votes Southern states are expected to gain after the 2010 Census: 7

    Rank of North Carolina and South Carolina among states with biggest increase in Latino/Hispanic population: 1, 2

    Months since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast: 53

    Number of vacant or unoccupied residential addresses in New Orleans as of September 2009: 61,310 **

    Of 15 states emitting highest amount of toxic releases into the environment, number in the South: 7

    Of 10 states with lowest voter turnout in 2008, number in the South: 6

    Of 10 states that saw the biggest increase in voter turnout between 2004 and 2008, number in the South: 6

    Of 13 Southern states, number that set 30-year records for voter turnout in 2008: 10

    President Obama’s net approval rating nationally, according to the
    latest Research 2000/DailyKos poll: +10

    His net
    approval rating in the South: -48

    Clearly, President Obama has his work cut out for him in the South — in more ways than one.

    NOTES:

    * The ISS list of Southern states includes Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.

    ** Although a shocking statistic, it’s also important to acknowledge the good news: “The share of New Orleans residential addresses that are unoccupied fell
    from 33 percent to 29 percent [between 2008 and 2009]. This is in
    contrast to many cities around the country where blight is growing or
    has declined only slightly.”

  • North Carolina big target for GOP strategy to capture legislatures, shape redistricting

    Yesterday, Republican leaders — energized by Democrats’ sagging poll numbers and an upset in the U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts — announced a major new campaign to capture key state legislatures this fall, allowing them to drive the drawing of new political boundaries in 2011.

    As Chris Cillizza reported in The Washington Post, the initiative includes the newly-formed American Majority Group, which includes former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush on its advisory board, and a re-tooled Republican State Leadership Committee.

    Together, they are targeting “30 to 40” legislative bodies. This would put Republicans in an excellent position to shape state-level redistricting — both for legislative districts and Congressional districts — that will come after new population estimates are released by the U.S. Census at the end of 2010. (For more on redistricting, see this excellent overview from the Brennan Center [pdf]).

    Which Southern states might be in GOP’s cross-hairs?

    Right now, Southern states are almost evenly split when it comes to partisan control of state legislatures. In six states, Democrats control both the lower and upper chambers; Republicans have the upper hand in five states; and in two states, the house and senate are split. Here’s a chart showing where things stand:

    Southern Leg 2010.jpg
    As you can see, there are several chambers where one party has only the slimmest of leads. So which of these are most likely to be in play?

    In this year’s election environment, it seems highly unlikely that GOP-controlled bodies — however narrow the margins (e.g., the Texas House) — will flip to Democrats.

    Just like Congress, the party in the White House usually goes on to lose partisan control of state legislatures in the next cycle (for example, see here).

    That’s likely to be especially true this year with Obama and the Democrats, and especially in the South (see the regional numbers in Gallup’s polls).

    If we take out the possibility of legislatures switching from Republican to Democrat, that leaves at least four Southern legislative bodies — including two in North Carolina — that Republicans are within striking distance of capturing this fall.

    Here is a chart I compiled of the four key house and senate chambers, and the percentage of seats that would have to switch hands for Republicans to gain control:

    Possible GOP Pickups.jpg

    As you can see, target #1 for Republicans, and the biggest vulnerability for the Dems, would be the North Carolina House. By flipping less than 8% of the seats — eight total — Republicans could command the state’s lower chamber.

    Capturing the N.C. Senate would be harder, although if they GOP picked up just five seats (10% of all races), they could bring the state’s upper chamber to a deadlock — an outcome the they’d be more than happy with if they also won over the house.

    Winning one or both N.C. chambers would be a big coup for Republicans.
    It would put symbolic brakes on the state’s Blue-trending momentum. It would allow the GOP to influence redistricting in a rapidly growing and increasingly diverse state, impacting how urban voters, African-Americans, Latinos and other key demographic groups are represented.

    Another possible target for the GOP is the Alabama House. With more white Democrats switching to the GOP, this might be the year Republicans can break through: If they can flip over 8% of the seats, they’ll have the majority.

    One extra note: Democrats may have dodged a big bullet this year in Louisiana, Mississippi and Virginia. All three won’t hold their next legislative elections until 2011. That’s good for Democrats, because their narrow majorities would have been in extreme jeopardy this year.

    Here’s a chart showing how easy it would have been for Republicans to win over house and senate chambers in these states in 2010:

    Close Shaves.jpg
    As it stands, Democrats will have an extra year in these states to turn their fortunes around.