Each month I update the Pocket Change Portfolio (PCP). The table below reconciles the PCP from beginning of period to end of period for February 2010, Year-To-Date (2010) and Life-To-Date. The Portfolio Returns line provides the calculated return for the three displayed periods.

Description	February-2010	Year-To-Date	Life-To-Date
Beg. Portfolio Value	25,987.33	21,411.36	–
Online Cash Receipts	6,267.18	11,076.37	31,132.39
Online Expenses	–	(4.95)	(238.58)
Gross Profit	6,267.18	11,071.42	30,893.81
Dividends	46.26	63.46	365.98
Interest Income	0.87	1.89	19.53
Subtotal	6,314.31	11,136.77	31,279.32
Gain/(Loss)	352.87	106.38	1,375.19
Ending Portfolio Value	32,654.51	32,654.51	32,654.51
Portfolio Returns	1.24%	0.67%	14.10%

Online Cash Receipts are the collected earnings from my online endeavors. Most of which is advertising on the my various blogs. The Online Expenses relates to various web related expenses such as registering 3 domains (DividendsValue.com, Dividends4Life.com and TheDiv-Net.com) and paying my annual hosting fee. The Interest Income line is interest earned on cash balances in an ING account I set up for the PCP. The Gain/(Loss) line is for market changes to the PCP (realized and unrealized). February Dividends of $46.26 included:

• $9.60 Sysco Corp. (SYY)
• $8.19 Vanguard Intermediate Bond ETF (BIV)
• $4.80 Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV)
• $9.36 Nucor Corporation (NUE)
• $8.80 Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)
• $5.51 PowerShares Emerging Mkts (PCY)

The portfolio was up in February, for the year and since its inception. Online earnings in February surpassed the $6,000 mark for the first time. A large portion of the increase is a result of offering one-year subscription option for D4L-Premium Services. In addition to several new one-year subscriptions, many monthly subscribers moved to the annual plan.  Traffic on Dividends Value was lower in February, compared to the January record volume.

During the month of February, I purchased the following securities:

• 98 shares AT&T, Inc. (T) providing $164.64 in annual dividend earnings
• 38 shares United Technologies Corp. (UTX) providing $64.60 in annual dividend earnings

Including the above February purchases, my annual PCP dividend income is now $1,041.86 at the current dividend rates. I ended the month with $6,332.48 in cash, enough to purchase several stocks in March. I have purchased at least one stock each month since May 2009. I believe the current cash balance and recent earnings will continue to support the purchase of at least one stock each month.

My PCP holdings are always available by selecting the Holdings option from the menu in the header. The next PCP update will be mid-April.

(Photo: sanja gjenero)

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We all know what surprising The Street will do to a stock’s price. The street focuses on quarterly revenue, EPS, EBIT, EBITDA and margins. The income statement is where you find all the metrics that The Street loves. It therefore must be the most important financial statement. Not! That title goes to the lowly cash flow statement. Ultimately cash flow is what drives the value of any financial asset, including dividend stocks.

This week several companies provided their shareholders with a special delivery in the form of higher cash dividends:

Myers Industries (MYE) manufactures a diverse range of polymer products for industrial, agricultural, automotive, commercial and consumer markets. March 5th the company increased its quarterly dividend 8% to $0.065/share. The dividend is payable April 5, 2010, to shareholders of record as of March 12, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 10. The yield based on the new payout is 2.52%.

NYMAGIC, INC. (NYM) is an insurance holding company whose property and casualty insurance subsidiaries specialize in underwriting ocean marine, inland marine and non-marine liability insurance. March 5th the company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.10/share. The dividend is payable on April 6, 2010 to shareholders of record on March 31, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.23%.

Applied Materials (AMAT) is the world’s largest manufacturer of wafer fabrication equipment for the semiconductor industry. March 8th the company increased its quarterly dividend 17% to $0.07/share. The yield based on the new payout is 2.28%.

Medicis (MRX) develops and markets prescription and OTC products for the treatment of certain dermatological conditions. March 10th the company raised its quarterly dividend 50% to $0.06/share. The dividend is payable on April 30, 2010, to stockholders of record at the close of business on April 1, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 29, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.01%.

Cohen & Steers (CNS) manages high-income equity portfolios, specializing in U.S. REITs, international real estate securities, preferred securities, utilities and infrastructure securities. March 11th the company increased its quarterly dividend 100% to $0.10/share. The dividend is payable on April 16, 2010 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 31, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 29, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.72%.

In selecting the best dividend investments, one must focus on growing cash dividends over time. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned stocks. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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The greatest compliment a colleague can pay you is to purchase your premium service (unsolicited), then ask if he can become an affiliate. I was certainty humbled when The Dividend Guy did just that. But he didn’t stop there. Earlier this year he did a full review on the D4L-Premium Services. Here is a small sample:

The only premium web content I do pay for is The D4L-Premium Services because it provides me with a lot of the dividend data I need in one nice package and saves me a great deal of time in tracking this data down all over the web. For $5.95 per month, it is by far the cheapest services I have ever bought as well! I encourage you to give it a try here.

Click here to read The Dividend Guy’s full review. After the review was published, D4L-Data and a one-year subscription were added.

The D4L Premium Services are designed for the serious dividend investor. If you have not yet subscribed, please see the Overview and Subscribe page for more information on the benefits of these services, sample reports, pricing and subscription information. The premium section can always be accessed via the Premium menu option on the top-left of the menu bar above.

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This is the second installment in a multi-part series that looks at various options used by income investors to boost their yield while waiting for dividend growth to lift their portfolio’s overall yield-on-cost. Last week we looked at Utilities. This week we are looking at Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).

Below is some background information on REITs from REIT.com:

Congress created REITs in the U.S. in 1960 as a way to make investment in large-scale, income-producing real estate accessible to all investors in the same way they typically invest otherwise – through the purchase and sale of liquid securities. U.S. REITs have seen their equity market capitalization soar from $90 billion to roughly $200 billion in just the past 10 years.

In order for a company to qualify as a REIT in the U.S., it must comply with certain ground rules specified in the Internal Revenue Code. These include: investing at least 75 percent of total assets in real estate; deriving at least 75 percent of gross income as rents from real property or interest from mortgages on real property; and distributing annually at least 90 percent of taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends.

The 90% distribution requirement and no corporate taxes are the reasons REITs yields are often above average. However, it is important to note that because REITs pay no income tax, they are not eligible for the special treatment as a “qualified dividends”, which are normally taxed at 15%.  When comparing REIT yields to investments with qualified dividends, you must always  look at them on an after-tax basis.

Consider an example where a taxpayer with a federal marginal tax rate of 30% owns AT&T (T) with a yield of 6.56% and Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) with a yield of  6.82%. On an after-tax basis T, which qualifies for the 15% tax rate, will yield 5.58%, while UHT will only yield 4.78%.

Like utilities, most REITs rely on new capital either in the form of debt or equity to fund investments, pay debt and pay dividends, albeit to a lesser extent. Consider the following:

Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) – Yield: 6.82%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 9m; 2008 11m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 $75.2m; 2008 $32.7m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 0 of 10

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) – Yield: 6.76%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 30m; 2009 79m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 $101.7m; 2009 $0m ($961.1m in short-term)
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 5 of 10

HCP, Inc. (HCP) – Yield: 6.12%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 102m; 2009 274m
Long-Term Debt: 2000 $1,158.9m; 2009 $5,456.1m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 5 of 10

Realty Income Corporation (O) – Yield: 6.00%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 53m; 2009 103m
Total Debt: 2000 $404m; 2009 $1,354.6m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 7 of 10

Essex Property Trust (ESS) – Yield: 4.56%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 18m; 2009 29m
Long-Term Debt: 2000 $595.5m; 2009 $0.0m ($1,847.4m short-term)
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 6 of 10

Corporate Office Properties Trust, Inc. (OFC) – Yield: 4.07%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 25m; 2009 56m
Long-Term Debt: 2000 $193.7m; 2009 $0.0m ($2,053.8m short-term)
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 9 of 10

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) – Yield: 3.67%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 39m; 2009 59m
Long-Term Debt: 2000 $485.3m; 2009 $1,731.6m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 2 of 10

Each of the above companies are growing their debt and/or shares outstanding, while not always generating sufficient cash to fund their operating expenses, including normal capital replacements (except for UHT). For a company to consistently raise its dividend, it must generate cash flows sufficient to meet operating obligations and to service outstanding debt. Since a REIT is legally required to pay out 90% of its earnings, it is less likely to eliminate its dividend, but it could drastically cut the dividend in the face of persistent weak earnings (like any company).

Similar to the utilities mentioned last week, I purchased some of the above companies many years ago, but I won’t be rushing to add to increase my positions.

Full Disclosure: Long T, NNN, HCP, O. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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• High Yield, High Risk Dividend Stocks

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This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net March 1, 2010.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of The Coca-Cola Company (KO). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: The Coca-Cola Company is the world’s largest soft drink company. It engages in the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of nonalcoholic beverage concentrates, fruit juices and syrups worldwide.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

KO is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. Since KO’s tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. The stock is trading at a 18.3% premium to its calculated fair value of $44.55. KO did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

KO earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. KO earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1893 and has increased its dividend payments for 48 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

KO earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $903. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as KO has. If KO grows its dividend at 7.3% per year, it will take 3 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.98%

Other: KO is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: KO did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks KO as a 3 Star-Hold.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $62.48 before KO’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 48 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.82%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.6%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 7.3% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. KO has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

Coca-Cola is the world’s most recognizable brand. KO’s extensive direct distribution network enables the company to deliver its products to almost all corners of the globe with unmatched efficiency. With its relatively stable end markets, dominant market positions and strong financials, KO is type of stock dividend growth investors are looking for. The stock is currently trading slightly above my $44.55 fair value price, but the quality of the company is such that I would be willing to pay a small premium for. Definitely a buy on dips. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in KO (2.6% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.

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Each Sunday I highlight the Carnivals I participated in over the past week, along with any notable articles that I came across. For those readers not familiar with carnivals, it’s where personal finance bloggers submit their best articles of the week with one blog serving as the host. The entries are separated into various categories such as Investing, Credit, Debt, Budgeting, Frugality, Wealth Building, Money Management, Financial Planning, Insurance, Taxes, The Economy, Real Estate, et. al.

Below are the carnivals that I participated in this week, along with a link to my article:

• Festival of Stocks published: RLI Corp. (RLI) Dividend Stock Analysis

Articles I enjoyed reading included (in no particular order):

The DIV-Net Featured Articles

• Dividends4Life presented Stock Analysis: The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
• The Dividend Guy presented Dividend Advice and Strategy
• Barel Karsan presented An Uphill Battle
• Dividend Growth Investor presented Procter & Gamble Company Stock Analysis
• Buying Value presented Is now the time to start looking at US ETF REITs?

Articles From DIV-Net Members

• The Dividend Guy presented Added 3 New Canadian Dividend Stocks to My Portfolio
• Dividend Growth Investor presented The ten year dividend growth requirement
• Barel Karsan presented Paving The Way To Success
• Buy Value presented Buffett Gets a Bullseye
• The Div Guy presented February Dividend Income Update
• Disciplined Approach to Investing presented Dividends Will Be A Company’s Renewed Focus?
• Old School Value presented ROE ROIC and CROIC
• BuyLikeBuffett.com presented Secret Millionaire Donates Her Fortune
• 40percent 20years presented Ask Warren Buffett – Last Long Interview
• EPIC INVESTOR presented Beat Warren Buffett
• Value Walk presented Jacob Wolinsky Interviews Famous Value Investor Whitney Tilson

Other Articles

• TheStreet.com presented Top Dow Dividend Stocks [Part-1] [Part-2]
• Globe and Mail presented Reasons to declare 2010 the year of the dividend
• The Enlightened American presented Stock Screen: Cheap FCF Stocks With Good Dividends
• The Wall Stree Journal presented The Oracle’s Tips for the Rest of Us
• Kiplinger presented High-Quality Stocks on Sale

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

(Photo: Sachin Ghodke)

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Once again it is time for a goals/progress update. I am pleased to report that annualized dividend income rose in February, extending the streak to 12 months after February 2009’s decline. Since I began publicly tracking annualized dividend income in November 2007, it has increased in 26 of the last 27 months.

My goals were defined in this December 1, 2007 Investing Goals post and updated in my 2010 Investing Goals post. Below is an updated version of the table found in the original post.

Description	Dividend Income Annualized	Yield on Cost
2027 Goal	110,000	20.00%
2017 Goal	30,000	10.00%
2010 Goal	9,500	5.00%
December/2009	7,274	4.84%
Purchases YTD	563	-0.09%
Div. Changes YTD	23	0.01%
Sales YTD	–	-%
February/2010	7,860	4.76%
Purchases	315	0.00%
Div. Changes	4	0.00%
Sales	–	-%
January/2009	7,541	4.76%

The above information covers the current month and year-to-date through the current month.

Click here for a Detailed Historical Progress Table.

For the month, annualized dividend income increased $319, and Yield on Cost (YOC) remained flat (0.00%). This month’s changes were a net of new purchases and dividend changes (no sales). Let’s examine each of the these categories:

Purchases: The $315 increase in annual dividend income and no change (0.00%) in YOC related to the following purchases (yield at the time of purchase):

• $165 AT&T, Inc. (T) 6.65% [Analysis]
• $58 United Technologies Corp. (UTX) 2.55% [Analysis]
• $92 Emerging Markets Debt (PCY) 6.47%

T and PCY raised my YOC, while UTX lowered it. As noted in earlier updates, I generally expect YOC to drop each month since most new investments will yield less than my current YOC, and dividend increases will not be sufficient to offset it.

Dividend Changes: The $4 increase in annual dividend income and the flat (0.00%) YOC related to the following dividend changes (a=dividend stated in annual terms, q=quarterly, m=monthly):

• ($3) iShares Invest Grade Bond (LQD) $5.73a>$5.69a (0.01%)
• $5 Nucor Corporation (NUE) $0.35q>$0.36q 0.01% [Analysis]
• $2 Emerging Markets Debt (PCY) $1.63a>$1.64a 0.00%

Sales: There were no sales in this month.

I am still on target to achieve my goal of an annualized dividend income of $9,500 by December 31, 2010.

That’s it for this time. The next monthly progress update will be early April.

(Photo: sanja gjenero)

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What is the primary reason you invest in dividend stocks? For me, it is a means to build a growing income that can be relied on during retirement. One of the beauties of dividend investing is it provides you continuous feedback. As the years and decades go by you can see your earnings steadily grow as you invest your money in dividend stocks, and as an added bonus, great dividend stocks will increase their dividend payments each year.

This week several companies provided their shareholders positive feedback with increased cash dividends:

Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX) is engaged in the business of purchasing, distributing, and transporting natural gas in portions of Arizona, Nevada, and California. February 26th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5.3% to $0.25/share. The dividend is payable June 1, 2010, to shareholders of record as of May 17, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 3.38%.

PPL Corp. (PPL) is a holding company for PPL Utilities also has holdings in the U.K. February 26th the company increased its quarterly dividend 1.4% to $0.35/share. The dividend is payable on April 1 to shareholders of record on March 10. The ex-dividend date is March 8. PPL is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 11 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 4.83%.

Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY) distributes natural gas to 1,016,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers in portions of North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. February 26th the company raised its quarterly dividend 3.7% to $0.28/share. The dividend is payable April 15, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 25, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 23. PNY is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 32 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 4.25%.

The Andersons (ANDE) operates in the agriculture and transportation markets in the U.S. February 26th the company increased its quarterly dividend 3% to $0.09/share. The dividend is payable April 22, 2010, to shareholders of record on April 1, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 30, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.08%.

Hanover Insurance (THG) offers insurance and financial products and services in the areas of risk management and asset management. February 26th the company raised its quarterly dividend 33% to $0.25/share. The dividend is payable March 22, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 8, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.34%.

Fred’s (FRED) operates about 650 company-owned general merchandise stores and markets goods and services to 24 franchised Fred’s stores in the southeastern U.S. February 26th the company raised its quarterly dividend 33% to $0.04/share. The dividend is payable on March 15, 2010, to shareholders of record as of March 5, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 3, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.50%.

Qualcomm (QCOM) focuses on developing products and services based on its advanced wireless broadband technology. March 1st the company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.19/share and announced that it will buyback up to $3 billion in common stock. The yield based on the new payout is 1.95%.

General Dynamics (GD) is the world’s sixth largest military contractor and also one of the world’s biggest makers of corporate jets. March 3rd the company increased its quarterly dividend 10.58% to $0.42/share. The dividend is payable May 7, 2010, to shareholders of record on April 9. The ex-dividend date is April 7, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.30%.

Wal-Mart (WMT) operates a chain of discount department stores, wholesale clubs, and combination discount stores and supermarkets; and is the largest retailer in North America. March 4th the company raised its annual dividend 11% to $1.21/share. The next quarterly dividend will be paid on April 5, 2010 to shareholders of record on March 12, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 10. WMT is a Dividend Aristocrat and has raised its dividend for 36 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.24%. [Analysis]

American Greetings (AM) is the world’s largest publicly owned greeting card company with operations in more than 70 countries. March 4th the company raised its quarterly dividend by 17% to $0.14/share. The quarterly dividend will be paid on April 5, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 23, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.71%.

WGL Holdings (WGL) provides natural gas service in theWashington, DC, metropolitan area and surrounding regions, including Maryland and Virginia. March 4th the company raised its quarterly dividend 2.7% to $0.3775/share. The new dividend is payable May 1, 2010, to shareholders of record on April 9, 2010. The ex-dividend date is April 7, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 4.52%.

Not all dividend paying companies take pride in raising their dividends each year. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: Long WMT. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

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This is the first installment in a multi-part series that looks at various options used by income investors to boost their yield while waiting for dividend growth to lift their portfolio’s overall yield-on-cost. This week we are looking at Utilities – those investments long considered as a safe harbor for “orphans and widows.”

What’s the difference between a Ponzi scheme and a utility company? Before I answer that question, let’s look at what a Ponzi scheme is.  Wikipedia defines it as:

A  fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit earned. The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering returns other investments cannot guarantee, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors to keep the scheme going.

In effect, a Ponzi scheme pays yesterday’s investors with money from today’s investors. It works great until there aren’t enough new investors to pay the old investors. In a similar manner, most utility companies rely on new capital either in the form of debt or equity to fund investment and to pay dividends. Consider the following:

Atmos Energy Corp. (ATO) – Yield: 4.88%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 31m; 2009 92m
Long-Term Debt: 2000 363.2m; 2009 2,159.5m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 5 of 10

Black Hills Corp. (BKH) – Yield: 5.10%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 22m; 2009 38m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 160.7m; 2008 719.2m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 7 of 10

Connecticut Water Service Inc. (CTWS) – Yield: 4.01%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 7m; 2009 8m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 65.4m; 2008 92.2m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 5 of 10

California Water Service Group (CWT) – Yield: 3.29%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 15m; 2009 20m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 156.6m; 2008 373.5m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 10 of 10

Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED) – Yield: 5.52%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 212m; 2009 276m
Long-Term Debt: 2000 5,415.4m; 2009 9,854.0m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 6 of 10

MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE) – Yield: 4.40%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 16m; 2008 22m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 148.6m; 2008 272.5m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 7 of 10

Middlesex Water Co. (MSEX) – Yield: 4.31%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 10m; 2008 13m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 82.5m; 2008 118.2m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 10 of 10

Progress Energy, Inc. (PGN) – Yield: 6.48%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 157m; 2008 260m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 3028.6m; 2008 10,659.0m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 5 of 10

Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG) – Yield: 6.17%
Shares Outstanding: 2000 26m; 2008 76m
Long-Term Debt: 1999 634.5m; 2008 2,396.7m
Years of Negative Free Cash Flow: 10 of 10

Each of the above companies are growing their debt and shares outstanding while generating insufficient cash to fund their operating expenses, including normal capital replacements, in at least 5 of the last 10 years. For a company to consistently raise its dividends, it must generate strong cash flows sufficient to meet operating obligations and to service outstanding debt. When the day comes that these companies can not raise enough capital to fund the operating requirements, the first source of additional cash will likely come in the form of a lower or eliminated dividend.

So, back to the original question, what is the difference between a Ponzi scheme and a utility? The answer is simply disclosure. All the above information on these companies was made available via S.E.C. filings. Unlike Bernard Madoff, these companies are telling you exactly what they are doing, thus there is no intent to defraud. I own some of the companies above, but I won’t be rushing to add to increase my positions.

Caveat emptor!

Full Disclosure: Long ED, PGN, TEG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

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• High-Yield Dividend Stocks: A Safer Approach
• 38 Dividend Securities For A Well-Rounded Asset Allocation
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• The 2010 Dividend Stock Ideas List

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This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net February 22, 2010.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Walgreen Co. (WAG). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Walgreen Co is the largest U.S. retail drug chain in terms of revenues. It sells prescription and non-prescription drugs, beauty care, personal care, household items, candy, photofinishing, greeting cards, seasonal items and convenience foods.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

WAG is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a slight premium to its calculated fair value of $33.49. WAG did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

WAG earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. WAG earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (2000-2003, 2001-2004, 2002-2005, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1933 and has increased its dividend payments for 35 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

WAG earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,477. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as WAG has. If WAG grows its dividend at 15.7% per year, it will take 7 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.98%.

Other: WAG is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: WAG did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks WAG as a 3 Star-Hold.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $48.65 before WAG’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 35 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.13%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 12.7%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 15.7% used in this analysis, thus providing only a margin of safety. WAG has a risk rating of 1.00 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

With over 7,000 drugstores, WAG offers unmatched convenience with one of the the most recognized brand names in the retail pharmacy business. The company enjoys a strong market share within the relatively stable U.S. retail drug industry. However, pressures from non-traditional competitors and potential adverse legislation could quickly weaken WAG’s advantages. Although the stock is trading slightly above my $33.49 fair value price, the sub-2.% dividend yield will prevent any near–term purchases. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in WAG (0.0% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.

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