Author: David Pett

  • Greece crisis made worse by rising rates

    It's a stretch to assign any similarity between Canada's red-hot economy and debt-plagued Greece these days, but almost two decades ago, Canada's growing debt problems were also causing headaches for investors.

    Canada's saving grace back then was a period of falling interest rates – something Greece, unfortunately, won't be able to rely on.

    "Canada while not in exactly the same boat, experienced a similiar set of circumstances in the 1990s," Stewart Hall, an economist at HSBC Canada said.

    "Essentially we shared the same need to introduce a program of fiscal austerity as markets at the time began to push back against the seemingly unending supply of Canadian paper."

    Mr. Hall said Canada's debt burden was eased by a protracted period in which interest rates cascaded lower. That helped lower the debt service costs at the same time that government was wrestling the deficit lower through reduced spending.

    For Greece, however, the situation is made considerably more challenging under the auspices of a rising rate structure, he said. 

    "As concern grows and bond spreads blow out, so too do the funding and servicing costs of that pile of Greek debt begin to mount. Which is to say, more tax revenues begin to get eaten up by servicing costs applying more pressure on fiscal authorities," the economist said. 

    David Pett

  • Rate hikes not huge risk to stocks

    The inevitability that interest rates will rise and choke off the economic recovery is making some equity investors incredibly uneasy these days.

    While that's understandable, it's overdone to expect a major correction just because global central banks are set to tighten ultra loose monetary policy in the coming months, says Stephen Freedman, a strategist at UBS AG.

    "We conclude that while monetary policy is likely to keep markets in a state of uncertainty for several quarters, it need not prevent equity markets from posting at least moderate gains," Mr. Freedman said in a note to clients. 

    Owing to the uncertainty surrounding rate hikes, the strategist recently downgraded his recommendation on equities to Neutral from Overweight. At the same time however, he does not believe the  onset of monetary tightening adds significant risk to stocks.

    Based on his analysis since 1950 on how equities have performed around the beginning of a U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle, Mr. Freedman said stock markets perform better than average during the six months leading to the beginning of tightening.  By comparison, during the six months and one year after the policy change, stocks have performed in line with their long term averages. 

    Furthermore, although 12-month returns are best when monetary policy is tight and loosening, gains have still remained positive when policy is loose and tightening.

    "The phase that is relevant for the foreseeable future, loose monetary policy and tightening, results in stock returns broadly in line with long term averages," he wrote. 

    "In other words, the fact that the Fed embarks on a hiking cycle is not on its own enough to derail equity markets."

    David Pett

  • Global defaults on speculative debt falling fast

    The global default rate on high-yield, or speculative, debt is expected to fall to 2.8% by the end of 2010, according to Moody’s Investors Services Inc.

    “Defaults in 2010 will remain few and far between as long as the high-yield debt markets remain wide open for business and the global economic recovery is maintained,” said Kenneth Emery, Moody’s director of default research.

    At the end of the first quarter, the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate was 9.9%. That’s slightly higher than the default rate of 7.8% after the first quarter of 2009, but down from 13% at the end of December 2009.

    Mr. Emery said the trailing 12-month default rate will decrease due to the large number of defaults in the first half of 2009 dropping out of the 12-month window.

    In the United States, Moody’s forecasts the default rate on high-yield debt will fall to 3.1% by year-end. In Europe, the ratings agency said the default rate is expected to decline to 1.4%. 

    David Pett

  • Forzani Group shares rise on results

    Forzani Group Ltd. shares are up close to 5% in early trading Wednesday morning after the sporting goods retailer reported solid earnings results for its fiscal 2010 fourth quarter.

    On Tuesday after market close, Forzani reported earnings per share of 75¢ on revenues of $372.9-million, versus last year’s EPS of 80¢ on sales of $380.8 million. Consensus estimates were for earnings of 73¢ per share. 

    "This was an impressive performance given that the ski, snowboard and outerwear business was challenged by an unusually warm and dry winter in much of the country," said Keith Howlett, a Desjardins Securities analyst. 

    He increased his price target to $18 from $16 and left his Buy rating unchanged. 

    Robert Gibson, an analyst at Octagon Capital, maintained his $17.50 price target and Buy recommendation, as results met his expectations. 

    He forecasted an increase in Forzani's margins over the next three years to 36% from 35.3%, and a decline in corporate store costs as a percentage of sales to 27.2% from 28.6%.

    David Pett

  • Like the housing bubble never happened

    You might think that the popping of one of the greatest housing bubbles in history would have changed attitudes toward real estate. But not so, according to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey of attitudes in the United States.

    Felix Salmon of Reuters can scarcely believe his eyes as he surveys the evidence, which, among other things, finds that the vast majority of Americans still firmly believe that a high level of home ownership is important to the economy.

    “This is horribly misguided..,” notes Salmon. “Homeownership is, if anything a drag on the economy, since it funnels resources into unproductive overconsumption and helps to impede labor mobility. There is absolutely no reason to believe that countries with high levels of homeownership, like the U.S., have better economies than those with low levels of homeownership, like Germany.”

    The survey also discovers that most Americans believe that homeownership is just as safe as putting money into a savings account—and safer than buying government bonds. It is as if the entire housing bubble never happened. Which raises the question: could it all happen again?

    Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post.

  • Major pullback looms beyond U.S. earnings season

    U.S. earnings season looks promising for equity markets. Beyond that a major pullback looms, says Tobias Levkovich, a Citigroup Capital Markets strategist.

    "To some degree, we think that 1Q10 earnings and the likely positive forward looking statements should sustain the rally but we do worry that the late spring/early summer period could bring about a 10%-like correction driven by the confluence of factors rather than an individual event." he said in a note to clients.

    Starting next week, U.S. companies are expected to report solid first quarter earnings based on a generally favourable pre-announcement period.

    As of last week, there had been only 70 negative pre-announcements issued by S&P 500 members. That equates to a negative/positive ratio of 1.3x for the index, which is below the 1.5x ratio right before fourth quarter 2009 earnings were released and the long-term average of 2.1x.

    Meanwhile, the estimate of earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter is 37%. Better yet, the growth is being tracked across almost every industry sector. 

    Mr. Levkovich said the bounce in industrial production and ISM readings combined with management commentary about supportive consumer and capital spending  implies that earnings numbers should be good, not only in the first quarter, but throughout the year.

    "Thus, one could argue that the S&P 500 should continue to trade higher during the upcoming earnings season even as many perceive the recent gains as just a late quarter window dressing," he said.

    Unfortunately, Mr. Levkovich foresees a "toxic mix" of various issues that may topple equities starting in June.

    Among his concerns is higher interest rates, a possibly "hung parliament" in the UK, and a growing emphasis on 2011 prospects as the calendar shifts towards the second half of the year.

    Political uncertainty looking towards the midterm U.S. elections and the plausibility of increased trade friction with China could also contribute to a meaningful pullback in the S&P 500, the strategist said.

    "While we do not foresee any one of these listed items as being a big problem by itself, the coming together of several of them simultaneously though could cause a meaningful pullback in the S&P 500," Mr. Levkovich said.

    "Thus, we remain focused on the trading environment and think that investors may need to retrench in the next couple of months, but the earnings data over the next few weeks suggests that it is too early to back away just yet."

    David Pett

  • Allied Nevada’s price target raised

    Shares in Allied Nevada Gold Corp. are expected to get a boost now that the company has sped up implementation plans at its wholly-owned Hycroft
    mine in Nevada.

    Brian Christie, a Desjardins Securities analyst, raised his price target on Allied Nevada to US$20.75 from US$18 after the company announced an optimized oxide production plan and a sulphide scoping study that would significantly increase production at Hycroft. Mr. Christie also maintained his Buy rating.  

    "We view the new mining plan as a positive development for Allied Nevada," he said in a note to clients. "Although the estimated cash costs are higher than we were anticipating, we believe the company will benefit from front-loading its production at Hycroft during peak years for the gold price."

    As a result of its accelerated oxide mining plan, average annual gold
    production is expected to increase to approximately 250,000 ounces by
    2012, with the peak years producing in excess of 300,000 ounces in 2013
    and 2014. Average annual silver production is expected to be in excess
    of 1 million ounces.

    Cost of sales per ounce of gold sold, assuming
    silver as a byproduct credit, is expected to average between US$425 and
    US$450 per ounce.

    In addition, the sulfide scoping study shows expected average annual production of
    275,000 ounces of gold and 6.5 million ounces of silver.

    David Pett

  • Scotiabank strategist reduces exposure to stocks

    Stocks will outperform bonds by a smaller margin in 2010, as the risk trade that fuelled the rally in 2009 loses momentum, says Vincent Delisle, strategist, Scotia Capital Markets.

    On Monday, Mr. Delisle reduced his equity exposure to 63% of his total portfolio, down from 68% previously. He increased his bond exposure by 3% to 29% and added 2% to his cash position that now stands at 8%.

    "Equity weightings should be gradually reduced this year and cash levels gradually increased," the strategist said in a note to clients.

    Although his confidence regarding stocks is waning, he said equities should continue to flourish in the first half of the year. After that, however, monetary policy shifts toward higher interest rates combined with the timing of exit strategies by governments around the world will prove more challenging, he said.

    Mr. Delisle said equity indexes could post a total return of between 5%-7% over the next 12 months. By comparison, he expects corporate bonds to gain between 2% and 4% and government bond returns to remain flat to slightly negative. 

    David Pett

  • Strong demand for long-term mutual funds continues

    Mutual fund sales in Canada rose again in March as investors continued to pile into long-term funds at the expense of money market funds.

    Preliminary results, including those of CI Investments Inc., the largest fund company that does not report monthy sales data to the Investment Funds Institute of Canada, indicate net sales of between $1.4-billion and $1.9-billion.

    That is down from RRSP-fuelled net sales of $3.3-billion in February, but well above net sales of $541.6-million a year ago in March.

    Long-term funds showed net sales of $4-billion, while money-market funds saw net redemptions of $2.2-billion.

    “We remind investors that only a year ago, the trend was reversed with long-term funds experiencing net redemptions and money-market funds experiencing strong net sales,” Stephen Boland, a GMP Securities LP analyst, said in a note to clients.  

    David Pett

  • First Solar headed for demise

    Anyone who has invested or is thinking of investing in a technology stock should read Bronte Capital’s explanation of why it is shorting First Solar Inc. of Tempe, Ariz. As Bronte admits, First Solar is a great company. Its breakthroughs in producing low-cost solar panels have changed the economics of the solar-energy industry. Moreover, it is profitable—probably as profitable as the rest of the solar industry put together.

    So why don’t the good folks at Bronte Capital like the firm’s prospects? As they point out, a successful tech company needs to do two things: change the world and keep out the competition. Changing the world is the easy part. It’s the competition that kills.

    Applied Materials Inc.—the nanomanufacturing company that is “the most important company in the world you have never heard of,” according to Bronte Capital—is taking dead aim at First Solar’s competitive advantages. By Bronte’s reckoning, the technologies that Applied Materials is developing are likely to erase the cost advantage that First Solar has enjoyed, especially when coupled with falling prices for semiconductor ingot. This does not bode well for First Solar, a company that Bronte Capital greatly admires, but that it believes is headed for demise.

    Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post.

  • Horrific mine accident hits Massey Energy

    The world is reacting with horror to the news that at least 25 people have died in an explosion at Massey Energy Co.'s Upper Big Branch coal mine in West Virginia. It is the worst U.S. mining accident since 1984.

    Meredith Bandy, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note that the ultimate impact on Massey is unclear.

    "Putting aside the terrible loss of life, at this stage it is not possible to quantify the earnings impact for [Massey] for this year, nor the impact of possible private litigation or government action against the company," Ms. Bandy wrote in a note to clients.

    She also noted that no estimates have been provided on how long the mine will remain closed and how much that will cost the company.

    Ms. Bandy did say that the accident is unlikely to affect the seaborne coking coal market. The market is about 200 million tonnes a year in size, and she wrote that it is unlikely that all of the output from the Upper Big Branch mine, which produces about 1.2 million tonnes a year, would have been sold into the seaborne market.

    Peter Koven

  • Rising stock buybacks having limited impact

    Stock buybacks are on the rise again but the impact to investors may not be all that great, says David Rosenberg,chief economist and strategist, Gluskin Sheff & Associates. Rising dividends, on the other hand, are definitely good news. 

    While share repurchases have increased 37% quarter-over-quarter and almost 100% from the 2009 lows, the vast majority of companies have bought back stock only to offset dilution from expiring stock options, Mr. Rosenberg noted to clients. 

    Indeed, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal, just 50 of 214 buybacks resulted in share count reductions.

    A more constructive trend, he said, is that companies are starting to pay out more of their retained earnings in dividends. In the first quarter, net dividend increases equaled $5.1-billion, the most since the fourth quarter of 2007.

    David Pett 

  • Cameco downgraded to sell

    The ongoing saga at Cigar Lake continues to haunt Cameco Inc. investors.

    Late Thursday, the uranium miner released its long-awaited technical report on the Northern Saskatchewan project, revealing higher costs and a slower-than-expected ramp-up of production.

    "While the company had recently disclosed a revised capital cost estimate of around $1.0 billion and a revised start-up timeline of 2013, the technical report disclosed higher than forecast life of mine cash operating costs of $23/lb (up from $14/lb) and a relatively slow production ramp up timeline (with full capacity not expected until 2017)," Orest Wowkowdaw, Canaccord Adams analyst, said.

    Mr. Wowkodaw lowered his net present value for Cameco by 9.1% that resulted in a downgrade of the stock to Sell from Hold. His new price target is $25, down from $28 previously. 

    "While we remain bullish on the medium- to long-term fundamentals for uranium, we see limited upside in Cameco shares in the near-term," he said.

    UBS analyst Brian MacArthur maintained his Buy rating but reduced his price target to $34 from $36. He said the extended mine ramp up was expected, but cash costs were higher than his forecast.

    David Pett 

  • Oil & gas, loonie, Apple, Cameco, Alcoa – Vialoux

    U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures gained 4 points in pre-opening trade. Futures are responding to a better than expected employment report released on Friday. Consensus for March non-farm payrolls was 190,000. Actual was 162,000. However, consensus included 100,000 census workers. Actual was only 48,000.

    Crude oil gained another $1.00 U.S. per barrel to reach a 17 month high. Energy stocks on both sides of the border are expected to open higher. ‘Tis the season for crude oil to move higher!

    Gasoline prices increased another $0.02 per gallon to a 17 month high on news over the weekend that a 120,000 per barrel per day refinery in Washington State owned by Tesoro experienced an explosion and fire. Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from from Buy to Hold. Tesoro fell 4% in overnight trading. Refineries frequently have safety issues at this time of year when completing their annual maintenance. ‘Tis the season for gasoline prices to move higher!

    The Canadian Dollar broke above short term resistance at 99.37 cents U.S. to reach a 21 month high.

    Apple reached an all time high overnight following news that iPad sales exceeded expectations since launch on Saturday. The company predicted sales of 300,000 units. Surveys say that sales reached the 600,000-700,000 range. Four investment dealers raised their earnings estimates and target prices over the weekend. 

    Alcoa was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Deutsche Bank after its analyst predicted that first quarter earnings to be reported on April 12th will be lower than consensus. Target price was reduced from $25 to $18.

    Cameco was downgraded from Hold to Sell at Canaccord. The stock broke support at on Thursday

    Harry Winston Diamond was upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform by RBC Capital. Target price is $14.

    Open Text was upgraded by Scotia Capital from Sector Perform to Outperform. Target price is $63.

    Don Vialoux, chartered market technician, is the author of a free
    daily report on equity markets, sectors, commodities, equities and
    Exchange-Traded Funds. For more visit Don Vialoux's Web site
      

  • Chance to own M&T Bank may be irresistable to TD Bank

    Thus far Canadian banks have dutifully obeyed restrictions by the federal government on moves that would reduce their capital levels, but that could be about to change.

    Allied Irish Banks, one of the biggest banks in Ireland, has announced plans to sell off assets to avoid a potential government take-over. Those assets include a 23% stake in M&T Bank, a regional US retail bank that owns 750 branches in the Northeast, which is also Toronto Dominion's core base of operations south of the border.

    According to Brad Smith, an analyst at Stonecap Securities, the chance for TD to dramatically expand its US network by buying the AIB stake could be too difficult to refuse.

    In a note to clients, Mr. Smith said he reckoned M&T would go "for something north of $2-billion," enough to have a punitive impact on TD's capital.

    Jim Flaherty, the Finance Minister, has told Canadian banks to not to boost dividends or launch significant acquisitions until regulators around the world have a better idea about how much capital they will require banks to hold.

    Nevertheless, TD could find the chance to own a piece of M&T Bank "strategically irresistible", Mr. Smith said in a not to clients, adding that it could be justified to shareholders on the basis of long-term revenue and expense synergies.

    John Greenwood

  • Still cautious on natural gas

    Expect weak natural gas prices through early summer as supply and demand moves slowly back into balance, says Peters & Co. Ltd.

    "Since early 2009, we have been cautious about U.S. natural gas storage levels and their effects on prices, but we had forecasted that 2010 would be year that the forsupply and demand forces came back in line, which would lead to a price rebound," the research firm said in a note to clients.

    "We still hold this belief, but the time-line for this recovery has been pushed back to later in 2010 as the natural gas directed drilling activity both north and south of the border has been more resilient than originally expected with E&P operators apparently ingnoring the importance of full-cycle economic returns."

    Near-term, Peters & Co. is cautious about investing in natural-gas weighted stocks but highlighted five names that have significant hedges above strip prices:  Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Devon Energy Corp., EnCana Corp., Paramount Resources Ltd., Peyto Energy Trust. 

    David Pett
     

  • Bullish on Brent oil prices

    The table is set for oil to rise, but it will be Brent not WTI prices that will set the tone, says a new report from First Energy Capital.    

    "We think there are significant items falling into place to suggest that crude oil prices could be making a fairly orderly progression into the mid-US $80s per barrel range in the next few weeks (for both Brent and WTI)," Martin King said.

    Of the two price markers, Mr. King is less bullish on WTI.  He said physical pressures appear to be lining up against any kind of fundamentally-based rally for WTI in the near-term.

    "Not to say that it should be reversing course and heading lower, but simply that the necessary physical ingredients are absent, for the moment, to sustain a push to higher price levels," he said. 

    As for Brent, the analyst said building global demand pressures are working in its favour.   

    "Add in the usual dose of seasonal maintenance that begins to take place in the North Sea around this time of year and the impacts this has on supply, and the stage is set for stronger Brent prices relative to WTI," he said. 

    "As such, the current small discount that Brent has to WTI is likely to morph into a premium fairly quickly."

    David Pett

  • Canadian banks too big to falter

    Canadians know that banks make up a big chunk of our national economy, but few of us realize just how big our financial institutions loom. According to Ronit Ghose, a Citigroup banking analyst, the market capitalization of Canadian banks is equivalent to just over 20% of our GDP.

    Only Australia, among developed nations, has a banking sector with a bigger footprint on its national economy. By comparison, the banking sectors of the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan have market caps worth only slightly more than 10% of their countries’ respective GDPs.

    The numbers cast an interesting light on the concerns raised by some economists that U.S. banks have become too big to fail. In relative terms, it seems that if U.S. banks are too big to fail, Canadian banks are too big to even falter.

    Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post.

  • Enbridge downgraded to Neutral

    Rising interest rates will limit upside in Enbridge Inc. shares, says UBS analyst Chad Freiss. Moderating growth over the next few years doesn't help.

    "History shows that utilities tend to underperform in the 12 months following initial interest rate hikes," Mr. Freiss said in a note to clients.

    Although Enbridge's lower risk asset base should help it maintain a premium multiple over more cyclically-exposed peers, the analyst is worried that slowing EPS growth may force that premium to narrow. 

    "Over the past few years, Enbridge has outperformed on the back of above-normal EPS growth," he said. 

    "As the major projects of Alberta Clipper and Southern Lights near completion, we are cautious that EPS growth momentum may slow after 2011 as Enbridge looks to redeploy burgeoning cash flows from years of supernormal growth."

    He downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy and left his price target at $52.

    David Pett
     

  • Oil weighted stocks trading at big discounts

    Jeff Martin and Kam Sandhar have done the math on commodity prices relative to stock prices.  Despite constant chatter about soggy natural gas prices, the Peters & Co. Ltd. analysts think investors are giving gas companies too much credit. And oil outfits? Overlooked.

    "Based on the forward strip [prices], the oil weighted entities will have a distinct advantage which will become more evident this summer, as they will continue to generate higher levels of free cash flow, while the natural gas weighted peers will likely become capitally constrained," they wrote in a report.

    Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Canadian Oil Sands Trust, and Imperial Oil Ltd. all trade at the largest discounts — "or smallest premiums" — to Peters' estimate of their net asset values, they said.  Devon Energy Corp. is the lone natural gas company under their surveillence which trades at a discount to its NAV, the analysts said. 

    "The company boasts both significant balance sheet strength and hedges at robust prices, both of which will allow Devon to move forward on its onshore shale natural gas developments," they said. EOG Resources Canada Inc. also got the nod in the natural gas category.

    Carrie Tait