Author: Gregory White

  • The Spanish Economy Is About To Get Gored And Here Are The Charts That Show You Why

    Bull Gore NY Post Cover

    Spain’s bailout of regional bank CajaSur has brought the threat of Spanish sovereign debt back on the agenda. The country has had to provide assistance for the regional bank at a cost of €500 million, and this is just the beginning of what could be a series of banking bailouts in Spain.

    Spain is already in precarious economic condition, due to a high level of sovereign debt and high rate of unemployment. It is unlikely it will be able to grow out of its debt crisis, and it is faced with austerity measures which could cripple growth for years to come.

    Hedgeye has the breakdown of just how bad the Spanish crisis is. They’ve given us permission to run their presentation.

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Source: Hedgeye

    Worried about Spain? Here is a breakdown of who would get crushed by banking sector chaos.

    Worried about Spain? Here is a breakdown of who would get crushed by banking sector chaos.

    Here are the banks you need to watch >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • UK Moves Could Cripple Progress To Save The Euro

    euro burning

    UK Prime Minister David Cameron has come out publicly against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s moves to expand the European Union’s power and federalize control of member states balance sheets, according to The Guardian.

    The move puts political progress to protect the euro in serious doubt, because it could initiate a new two track European Union.

    Right now, the EU works because the euro is seen as something all members either consider or plan to enter. They maintain, or plan to maintain, their national budgets within the rules of the Maastricht Treaty. Obviously, member states have not followed those rules, and Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Spain are perfect examples of that. The UK and Denmark have special exemption from following these rules.

    Merkel wants to give the European Union real power over its member states’ budgets, forcing them to take action to limit their deficits and debt.

    But the UK, a key member of the European Union (but not the eurozone) has said an emphatic no to an expansion of power for the EU.

    This means that Merkel, and whomever she can rally in support, will have to exclude the UK from whatever reforms are made.

    If the UK can negotiate its way out of this political expansion, how many other states will? And how long will it take for legislators in Brussels to find a way to write their way out of this mess?

    There is no easy way for Germany to get their way on EU budgetary controls. Will that leave them looking for other paths out of their problems?

    Now Check Out The Ultimate Guide To Sovereign Debt Crises >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • The Greecing Of America, Simplified

    The United States is destined to become the next Greece, unless we act fast to cut government spending, according to a video released by Bankruptingamerica.org.

    It is a little limited in its criticism, refusing to acknowledge the realities of what superior growth potential can mean for paying down government debt, but is still a catchy explanation of how serious the U.S. debt problem is, and what it has in common with Greece’s.

    Now Check Out Niall Ferguson’s Complete Explanation Of Our Sovereign Debt Crisis >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Europe Rallies Back, But Germany Is Down As Country Falls On Its Sword

    The German sacrifice of voting yes to provide support for the eurozone bailout has buoyed European indices.

    Germany’s DAX, showing signs of sacrifice, down around .8%

    Dax 521

    UK’s FTSE, flat

    France’s CAC, roughly flat

    Italy’s MIB, up 1.32%

    Spain IBEX, up 1.48%

    Portugal’s PSI, up .67%

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Here Is The Only Real Solution To The Oil Leak Crisis (BP, RIG)

    The oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico continues, unabated, as you can see live here on Sen. Bill Nelson’s website.

    The only real solution to the Deepwater Horizon oil leak is to install 2 new relief platforms in the Gulf, offering a means to relieve the pressure and for the oil to escape.

    This path, however, will take sometime, though it is aggressively being worked on by BP.

    Here is a diagram of how it will work, from BP via DeepwaterHorizonResponse.com

    BP Relief Plan

    Next stop? Florida. Check out where the oil is headed next >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • BlackRock’s Bob Doll: This Correction Is At An End

    BlackRock’s Vice Chairman Bob Doll spoke with Betty Liu of Bloomberg Television this morning on where the market was heading. Doll thinks this correction is over, but that we may move sideways for a while.

    • 0:20 After the correction, we will see a bull market rally, so long as things stabilize, particularly in Europe
    • 1:00 We are now at the end of the correction, price wise, and we now need to be repairing damages
    • 1:40 We underestimated the impact of European contagion
    • 2:15 We may go sideways before we emerge from this

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Ferguson: Debt Has Taken Down Empires Before, There Is No Reason Why It Won’t Happen Again

    Niall Ferguson’s speech to the Peterson Institute for International Economics examined the roots of sovereign debt crises, and how they have plagued states since the birth of the bond market. Ferguson also made clear, that such crises have brought down some of the world’s biggest empires, and there is no reason why it won’t happen again.

    Peterson Institute for International Economics via Paul Kedrosky:

     

    Check out Ferguson’s full presentation on sovereign debt here >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • The 10 German Banks That Angela Merkel Thinks Need Special Protection From Speculators

    Nikolaus von Bomhard

    Germany announced a ban on naked short selling today, that takes effect at 12 AM Berlin time. Chancellor Angela Merkel has come under criticism for the decision, which is now set to hamper those who seek to speculate on German and European markets.

    There are 10 German financial firms named in the ban, and we have them right here, along with data from CMA Datavision on their current likelihood of default, when available. Also included is CDS data, showing the pressure these firms are already under from markets, and soon to be free from.

    Aareal Bank AG

    Aareal Bank AG

    CEO: Wolf Schumacher

    What Do They Do: Primarily a real estate bank, Aareal works in structuring real estate deals internationally, with a specific focus on the German market.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

    5-year Mid CDS: NA

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Allianz SE

    Allianz SE

    CEO: Michael Diekmann

    What Do They Do: Primarily an insurance firm, Allianz is also one of the largest asset managers in the world.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 7.0%

    5-year Mid CDS: 82.6 bps

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Commerzbank SG

    Commerzbank SG

    CEO: Martin Blessing

    What Do They Do: As the second biggest bank in Germany, Commerzbank works across a range of commerical and retail banking.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 10.7%

    5-year Mid CDS: 128.7 bps

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Deutsche Bank AG

    Deutsche Bank AG

    CEO: Josef Ackermann

    What Do They Do: Deutsche Bank is an international full service investment bank which acts across of range on industries including retail banking and trading.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 12.2%

    5-year Mid CDS: 148.4 bps

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Deutsche Börse AG

    Deutsche Börse AG

    CEO: Reto Francioni

    What Do They Do: The company that runs Germany’s exchanges, Deutsche Börse AG also conducts a range of market related functions for consumers.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

    5-year Mid CDS: NA

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Deutsche Postbank AG

    Deutsche Postbank AG

    CEO: Stefan Jütte

    What Do They Do: Major German retail bank.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

    5-year Mid CDS: NA

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Generali Deutschland Holding AG

    Generali Deutschland Holding AG

    Head of the Board of Directors: Walter Thießen

    What Do They Do: Holding company of a primary insurance group and the lead member of the broader Generali Group.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

    5-year Mid CDS: NA

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Hannover Rūckversicherung AG (Hannover Re)

    Hannover Rūckversicherung AG (Hannover Re)

    CEO: Ulrich Wallin

    What Do They Do: One of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, worth €9 billion.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 8.7%

    5-year Mid CDS: 104.3 bps

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    MLP AG

    MLP AG

    CEO: Dr. Uwe Schroeder-Wildberg

    What Do They Do: A brokerage business that deals with private clients, many of which are academics.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD):

    5-year Mid CDS:

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Mūnchener Rūckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (Munich Re)

    Mūnchener Rūckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (Munich Re)

    CEO: Nikolaus von Bomhard

    What Do They Do: A giant of global reinsurance, Munich Re works worldwide and Warren Buffett is the company’s biggest investor.

    Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 6.0%

    5-year Mid CDS: 70.3 bps

    Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

    Worried about German banks? Check out the top 25 financials ready to default.

    Worried about German banks? Check out the top 25 financials ready to default.

    See the 25 in danger here >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Does This Woman Have Any Idea What She’s Doing?

    Andrea Merkel

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone on a populist attack against speculators by proposing a ban on naked short selling and CDS trading on a select set of securities.

    That ban would impact European government bonds and 10 select German financial institutions within the eurozone.

    The ban is being proposed by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.

    This move comes in the context of a German public severely displeased with the decision to bailout the fringe eurozone states at their own expense. Domestically, West Germans already support the eastern half of their country, which was reunified in 1990. Under the European Union, German taxes also subsidize development projects in other European countries.

    The burden of the Greek bailout seems a step too far for many, particularly a center-right government under Chancellor Andrea Merkel.

    Now her government has decided naked short selling and CDS speculation will end on European government debt and German financials.

    How Germany intends to ban these activities has not yet been revealed, and it seems unlikely Germany will be able to ban speculation on all European sovereign bonds, which are not only traded in Germany.

    What this does, in the short term, is increase market distrust in the eurozone. If Merkel wants to ban naked short selling, clearly she lacks confidence in European financial stability German financial companies.

    This could lead to investors seeking alternative means to make these moves.

    Now the euro is falling on the news:

    EURUSD 518

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Roubini: Austerity Measures Won’t Go Through, And Markets Will Be Punished

    Nouriel Roubini was on Bloomberg TV today discussing the sovereign debt situation in Europe and around the world. He remains unconvinced by the European bailout package and the likelihood governments will be able to combat the crisis.

    • 0:30 The problem of a the eurozone crisis has been contained by the bailout, but they must make cuts or it could expand; markets will remain volatile in the interim
    • 1:25 Markets are asking whether Greece can politically follow through on austerity
    • 2:30 UK, UK, and Japan all have similar sovereign debt crises, and the result could be inflation in the long run

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • 10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell (HD, LOW, GOOG, SPY, GLD)

    Mariah Carey

    Good morning. Here’s what you need to know:

    • Asian markets are up in overnight trading, and European indices are continuing to surge. The euro remains low, and gold prices have fallen off slightly.
    • As confidence in the eurozone weakens, investors are pouring into the U.S. dollar and other U.S. assets in an effort dubbed “reverse diversification.” U.S. asset acquisition, in dollars, bonds, and stocks, totaled $140.5 billion in March alone.
    • Inflation in the UK went past expectations in April to reach 3.7% in moves the government calls temporary. March’s inflation numbers were at 3.4% and the government is meant to maintain inflation at 2%. The pound is falling against the dollar on the news.
    • A massive car bomb in Afghanistan has killed at least 5 U.S. troops and injured 50 more in the capital city of Kabul. At least 5 more are also dead, some of which may also be U.S. or NATO troops. 
    • Home Depot beat analyst estimates in Q1 with $0.45 per share profits, $0.05 higher than expected. This was somewhat of a surprise after industry rival Lowe’s produced disappointing results.
    • Law enforcement agencies in the U.S. and Europe are set to target Google after it declared it had recorded data communications individuals sent over wi-fi networks. The case refers specifically to the company’s mapping of unsecured wi-fi hotspots when setting up its Google Map service.
    • 4 key primaries occur in the U.S. today, which may provide a glimpse into the mid-term elections. Many of the incumbent candidates are facing more radical opposition, with support for the party’s base significant for those individuals.
    • Bonus: Mariah Carey had to put out a stage fire last night at a performance in Egypt, which started beneath her feet prior to the show.

     

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  • MAP OF THE DAY: Watch Out Florida, Here Comes The Oil

    Florida Oil Spill 24 Hours

    The oil leak growing off the coast of Louisiana could be set to make landfall soon, and may be destined to hit another coast line soon thereafter.

    Worries are growing that after failed attempts to stem the flow of oil from the leak, it may grow and flow along the current towards the coast of Florida.

    See what could happen in the next 72 hours here, and follow updates at the Florida EPA.

    Here’s how to understand the EPA’s maps.

    Here's how to understand the EPA's maps.

    Source: Florida Department of Environmental Protection

    After 24 hours…

    After 24 hours...

    Source: Florida Department of Environmental Protection

    After 48 hours…

    After 48 hours...

    Source: Florida Department of Environmental Protection

    Moving closer to Florida, after 72 hours…

    Moving closer to Florida, after 72 hours...

    Source: Florida Department of Environmental Protection

    Worried about the oil leak? Check out just how big it is compared to cities around the world.

    Worried about the oil leak? Check out just how big it is compared to cities around the world.

    Here’s what the oil spill would look like on top of your city >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • THE RADAR: 10 Brewing Stories You Need To Watch Right Now

    radar war

    Right now, uncertainty is stretching over markets worldwide as micro issues, like the BP oil spill, and massive one’s, like the collapse of the euro, rattle traders minds.

    We’ve got the most important stories, both long and short term, you need to watch here, with details of where they are and where they might head next.

    Kyrgyzstan: Coup Set To Bring Down Government Of Vital U.S. Ally?

    Kyrgyzstan: Coup Set To Bring Down Government Of Vital U.S. Ally?

    Kyrgyzstan experienced a coup just a little over a month ago, and now civil unrest is setting the country up for another spate of internal strife.

    The government is now embroiled in a conflict against supporters of the previous regime, and fought to take back two buildings from the rebels on May 14.

    The result is continued instability in a country that is a key part of the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan.

    China: Is The Great Slow Down Beginning?

    China: Is The Great Slow Down Beginning?

    The government in China has been making moves to address what many believe is a property bubble within the country. Those moves are now having a serious impact on prices in places like Beijing and Shanghai.

    Simultaneously, the government is also addressing international imbalances by revaluing the yuan against the euro.

    The impact could be a slowdown in the world’s number one growth market.

    Australia: Is It The Next Mega-Meltdown On The Horizon?

    Australia: Is It The Next Mega-Meltdown On The Horizon?

    Australia is on the attack against rampant economic growth in its country, targeting the mining industry with new taxes set to hit profits.

    This move is strange, particularly because it was the resource production industry that powered Australia through the worst of the global financial crisis.

    Now the country is tightening rates as well.

    Tie that in with the country’s reliance on China, and the level of indebtedness among its households, and you have the beginning of trouble.

    United States: Will Upcoming Elections Create “Austerity” In America?

    United States: Will Upcoming Elections Create "Austerity" In America?

    Fall elections in the U.S. have already found their way into policy, forcing Senators to take unlikely sides in the financial regulation debate.

    The political conversation is set to get more radical as the elections come closer, as each party attempts to ratchet up the populist rhetoric and get their supporters out the the polls.

    The result could be an inflamed U.S. electorate, and a more austere Uncle Sam less inclined to hand out candy.

    The Supreme Court: The Bilski Decision

    The Supreme Court: The Bilski Decision

    Any day now the Supreme Court is set to make a major decision on business model patents.

    Specifically, the court will rule in the Bilski case, where an Appelate court rejected an attempt to patent a particular form of hedging.

    The case could have significant ramifications for what kind of business processes can be patented. Learn more here.

    Banks: Will Exposure To Sovereign Debt Ignite A New Credit Crisis?

    Banks: Will Exposure To Sovereign Debt Ignite A New Credit Crisis?

    Image: PIAZZA del POPOLO

    The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is doing more than undermining the euro, its also hammering banks that hail from the eurozone.

    Many of the banks, particularly Spanish, French, English, and German, have significant holdings in foreign debt which is encouraging doubts within the system.

    Those doubts can be felt through the rates banks are willing to lend to one another, and are beginning to endanger the status of some of Europe’s giants.

    This could lead to a new credit crisis, if the eurozone cannot resolve its financial position.

    The Oil Spill: Is it headed to Florida?

    The Oil Spill: Is it headed to Florida?

    Image: Flickr

    The oil leak off the coast of Louisiana shows no signs of abating, even though BP is trying everything in their arsenal to tame the crisis.

    It is now looking increasingly likely that this leak will persist until a new well draws from the same area, releasing the pressure. Beyond that, the big talk is that it may be headed to Florida and up the east coast.

    Thailand: Could This Be The Beginning Of A Civil War?

    Thailand: Could This Be The Beginning Of A Civil War?

    Image: naelkung on twitter

    Protests in Bangkok are rocking Thailand’s establishment and endangering long-term peace in the country.

    Videos and photos of the rebellion show the seriousness of the situation, as government troops continue to shoot to kill protesters.

    The risk remains that this protest movement could turn into an organized military uprising, leading to civil war in the country.

    Europe: Is The World’s Largest Economy About To Break Up?

    Europe: Is The World's Largest Economy About To Break Up?

    The ECB’s bailout of its fringe was meant to provide support for European debt and equity markets amid increasing doubts over the eurozone. It stopped the bleeding for a few days, but last week saw negative moves on European indices and increasing doubts over the euro’s long term survival.

    Now some are suggesting a whole new currency union could be born from the ashes of the euro. Few are suggesting things could remain the same, and still produces survival.

    Regulation: Is The U.S. Set To Damage The Only Industry Actually Making Money?

    Regulation: Is The U.S. Set To Damage The Only Industry Actually Making Money?

    The U.S. is set to enact new regulations targeting the financial services industry, which could damage profits and halt the growth of a key GDP powerhouse.

    Right now, legislation is being debated by the Senate that would prohibit investment banks from operating prop trading desks along with client support services. This industry breakup would have the short term impact of a massive restructuring, the long term result is unknown.

    Considering the importance of the industry to the U.S. economy, however, it could be a cramp on U.S. growth for years to come.

    Worried about the future? Worry about right now. See the housing markets in crisis.

    Worried about the future? Worry about right now. See the housing markets in crisis.

    Image: Wikimedia

    Here are 13 housing markets that will never recover >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Why The Coming Election Could Bring The PERMANENT End Of The UK Labour Party

    Gordon Brown Door

    Gordon Brown’s gaffe today in calling an old woman a bigot for her opinions on Eastern Europeans belies bigger problems for a party now faced with becoming obsolete.

    The rise of the Liberal Democrats, through leader Nick Clegg’s masterful performances in the country’s first televised debates, is putting pressure on a Labour Party which has been considered the only other since the 1920s.

    Then, the Liberal Party lost its opposition place due to a rise in the upstart Labour Party, which better represented the country’s growing electorate after World War I.

    Now, the Liberal Democrats are making moves in the polls, either in the lead or right behind the Conservatives. Their supporters are growing, and many are coming from the country’s middle ground, where Labour has claimed dominance since the rise of Tony Blair in the late 1990s.

    In the event of a coalition government, the Liberal Democrats may choose to work with the Conservatives leaving Labour outside government for the first time since 1997.

    But the party would also require the Conservatives to change rules on how MPs are voted for, potentially making the system proportionally representative. In a new election, which could be called as early as the fall, the Liberal Democrats could win a majority or even place second, with Labour falling to third.

    Labour then wouldn’t even be chief opposition party, and could face a series of high profile defections to the Liberal Democrats.

    It has happened before…

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Yes, Spain Is A HUGE Domino

    Spain was downgraded today, and now concerns over a minor Greek crisis are growing into the threat of a massive Spanish meltdown.

    Spain would not be a minor blip on the world’s economic radar. Spanish banks have received a tremendous amount of financing from the European Central Bank (ECB).

    From EconomicResources:

    ECB Funding Spain

    And Spanish banks also rely on interbank credit dwarfs Ireland and the rest of Europe, exposing those counterparties to banking sector risk.

    From EconomicResources:

    Credit Interbank Spain

    Combining this likely banking sector exposure with sovereign debt exposure, it looks likely France and Germany will face significant problems if the Spanish crisis progresses.

    From EconomicResources:

    Exposure Spain

    See Just How Desperate Spain Is To Rollover Its Debt In Their Presentation To Foreign Investors >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Police Raid Deutsche Bank And 50 Other Banks In Germany

    Bild DB

    Bild.de has broke the news of German police raids of Deutsche Bank and fifty other financial firms over tax-evasion charges.

    The investigation involves 150 people suspected of evading VAT charges due in carbon trading schemes.

    The taxes avoided add up to €1 billion, according to Bild.

    Bild explains the tax scheme as this:

    Dealers in different EU countries buy and sell permits which allow industrial enterprises to release a certain amount of greenhouse gases.

    On the sale from dealer A to dealer B across a state border, no VAT is due. Upon the resale of the permits by dealer B to dealer C within the same country (i.e. Germany), VAT does become owed which dealer C can then claim back from the tax office.

    Dealer B owes the authorities 19 per cent in VAT – it doesn’t pay, but pockets the 19 per cent and disappears off the market.

    Join the conversation about this story »


  • The Greek “Bailout” Is Ballooning To €135 Billion And Germany Is Not Pleased

    Michael Ballack

    The IMF and EU are currently negotiating the full bailout package for Greece, which actually means Germany and the IMF are discussing how much Germany is going to have to shell out to cover the Greek debt mess.

    Some facts from Der Spiegel:

    • Germany had planned to fund €8.4 billion a year to Greece for the next three years
    • The number has grown to a potential total of but now it is €25 billion for this year alone
    • Germany’s opposition is taking advantage of the crisis, saying that Chancellor Merkel’s slow progress on the deal has made the problem much more expensive, not less
    • It remains unlikely German parliament will pass the bailout, as is
    • The deadline for resolving this crisis is May 19, as Greece faces a call from creditors then that they have to meet

    Now Check Out Who Gets Pounded When Greek Debt Holders Take Their Haircut >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Here’s Everything You Need To Know About The Rapidly Approaching Crisis In Spain

    spain model

    Spain just got downgraded by S&P.  Given that S&P is usually the last to know, it looks like things are only going to get worse for the eurozone giant.

    While Spain might seem like another Greece or Portugal, its something far different–and worse.

    The country is a way more important part of the eurozone economy, with way too much debt to be bailed out by a weak EU-IMF initiative.

    See Also:

    Property Boom: Spain experienced a property boom larger than the US and UK

    Property Boom: Spain experienced a property boom larger than the US and UK

    This property boom saw the price of Spanish real estate rise 80% from 1990 to 2009.

    This was due to similar reasons as those for the US and UK booms: relatively low interest rates and an easy credit environment.

    Source: The Economist

    Property Boom: Boom leads to employment growth and influx of workers

    Property Boom: Boom leads to employment growth and influx of workers

    The property boom led to a period of relatively low unemployment in Spain and an influx of foreign workers and dependents from abroad.

    Since the boom collapsed, this influx has only served to further exacerbate the unemployment problem.

    Source: Index Mundi

    Unemployment: 18.8%

    Unemployment: 18.8%

    Spain’s unemployment was a staggering 18.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is a rise on the previous quarter’s 17.9% and was above the consensus projections by 0.3%.

    This is a return to the pre-boom time numbers, though higher than the year 2000 average of 16%.

    Source: Instituto Nacional Estadistica

    Unemployment: Increase looks set to continue to trend upward

    Unemployment: Increase looks set to continue to trend upward

    Unemployment looks continue to trend upwards due to an increasing labor force and new austerity measures which will cut down on government spending.

    The austerity budget is calling for a 5% cut in GDP and while illegal immigrant worker numbers are decreasing, it appears unlikely the rate will be equal by any measure.

    Source: Index Mundi

    Euro Zone Imbalances: Inability to deal with labor problems

    Euro Zone Imbalances: Inability to deal with labor problems

    Because of Spain’s position in the Euro zone, it has been confronted with wage demands which are unfit for its less modern economy.

    Spain cannot compete with Germany for the quality of its manufactured goods, as it cannot devalue its currency, lower wages, and become more competitive in the market place.

    Source: OECD

    Debt: During the boom times, it seemed as though Spain was doing well at paying down debt.

    Debt: During the boom times, it seemed as though Spain was doing well at paying down debt.

    Spain, unlike Greece, used its period of growth to pay off debts and only had debt of 55% of GDP, which is the Euro zone average, prior to the crisis.

    This should, theoretically, make servicing its debt easier as it has less.

    Source: Index Mundi

    Pension And Entitlement Schemes: Slash and Burn

    Pension And Entitlement Schemes: Slash and Burn

    Spain has been on a slash and burn assault of entitlement programs since the severity of its recession became obvious.

    Most obvious of these cuts is the raising of the retirement age to 67 from 65. This, coupled with cuts in the civil service, could make a strong impact on the country’s deficit.

    Source: OECD

    No Growth Sectors In The Economy: GDP unlikely to grow swiftly

    No Growth Sectors In The Economy: GDP unlikely to grow swiftly

    The collapse of the property bubble has put Spain in a position of retrenchment in terms of where it sees its economy going.

    It now needs to develop new growth sectors to grow its GDP. Likely candidates include energy, where Spain has invested heavily in solar technologies.

    Source: Banco de Espana

    Who is exposed: Financial Companies

    Who is exposed: Financial Companies

    Compared to Greece, foreign bank exposure to Spanish government debt is limited. This does not mean that it isn’t systemically large in certain countries banking sectors, however.

    A primary example of this would be Cathay Life Insurance of Taiwan, which has significant exposure to Spanish debt. More interesting is which banks and or insurance companies have issued derivative instruments on Spanish debt, such as CDS.

    These investors could be put under heavy pressure come July, when Spain has huge obligations to meet.

    Source: Bank of International Settlements

    Right now, Spain looks in good shape in debt markets

    Right now, Spain looks in good shape in debt markets

    Spain is still in a position much better than the other PIIGS states. It does not have their debt load, nor the CDS spread of its rivals.

    However, contagion via a European default or a prolonging of the Greek debt crisis could bring further pressure on the Spanish economy, which will result in higher CDS spreads and increasing yields on debt.

    This week will see another Spanish debt issuance, this time of the 15-year variety, which will provide raw data on how markets perceive the country against its neighbors. Future months might hold more problems for Spain, however.

    Source: Reuters

    But July is D-Day for Spanish debt

    But July is D-Day for Spanish debt

    Barclays Capital finds that Spain is not one of the PIIGS most in need of debt refinancing over the next several months, but will be faced with huge obligations in July, according to the FT Alphaville.

    Spain may be safe from the uncertainty over Greece right now, but come July things could get extremely difficult.

    Approximately 25 billion Euros ($34.31 billion) in refinancing are needed in July, and Spain will have to tap the debt markets to get that. Spain can only hope the crisis over Greece is over by then, lest it might be dealing with its own.

    Source: Barclays Capital via FT Alphaville

    Now Check Out How Spain Is Begging For Money To Save It From Its Debt

    Now Check Out How Spain Is Begging For Money To Save It From Its Debt

    Check Out Spain’s Presentation To Potential Investors Here >

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  • Here’s The Presentation Spain Is Using To Convince The World It Can Borrow Money

    Spain Debt

    While Greece and Portugal may be dominating debt crisis headlines at the moment, Spain is the lingering country that could be “too big to bail.”

    Spain’s economic problems are somewhat similar to Greece and Portugal, in that the country has had extremely low growth since the financial crisis erupted, do to a slowdown in its key industry, home-building. Unemployment has boomed as a result, and it now hovers around 20%.

    But according to economist Luis Riestra, the country also has a much bigger banking crisis on its hands, with local banks, called cajas, needing a federal bailout that may cost 15% of GDP. Bigger Spanish banks also remain under pressure.

    The country is going to the markets to sell its debt, with the risk of not meeting goals increasing as the rollover debt deadline of July looms.

    The size of debt it needs: 66 billion euros ($89 billion) of rollover debt and an additional 110 billion euros ($149 billion) of new debt, according to Riestra.

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    Now Check Out What Got Spain Into This Situation

    Now Check Out What Got Spain Into This Situation

    Image: Reuters

    The background is here >

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  • Portuguese Bank CDS Go Vertical

    Portugal’s banks are starting to buckle under the pressure of their state’s fiscal crisis, as Greece’s debt problems spread across the continent.

    It may have a smaller deficit, and it may have taken austerity measures, but Portugal’s banks are still feeling the pressure of their sovereign’s problems, and the value of CDS is starting to widen as a result.

    From CMA Datavision:

    CMA Portugal Banks

    Check Out Who Else Gets Hammered In A Greek Default >

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