Author: J. Randolph Evans

Today, there was some limited progress on a few implementation issues which are largely peripheral to the main obstacles to a consensus agreement.  Most of the work was done behind closed doors by separate working groups.

In the morning session, intellectual property protection was a major focus as developing countries insisted on the free flow of new climate friendly technologies while R&D companies feared the conversion and cloning of their intellectual property.  In addition, scientists discussed in various briefings the implications of deforestation.

India and China continue to oppose ‘targets’ for emissions reductions.  Indeed, the Chief Negotiator for the G-77 walked out amid developing countries frustrations.  At this point, one possibility openly discussed is a political agreement among most developed countries only.  The divide between developed and developing countries continues to center on funding, defined emissions reductions targets, and the transfer of technologies.  Unfortunately, even in closed door sessions, posturing dominates over any actual concessions.  Indeed, there was so little consensus that even the stream of competing drafts dwindled to a trickle.

The Conference had a frenetic atmosphere as an avalanche of people converged on the Bella Center.  Already, Conference organizers have started to consider new volume control measures as worries mount that the facility will reach capacity beginning early next week.  Enhanced security amidst expected protests and the arrival of world leaders have complicated the capacity issue.

President Obama’s receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize was center stage at the COP–15 Conference.  As the ceremony was broadcast on giant screens, attendees eagerly watched President Obama’s acceptance of the prestigious award with his commitment to the issues before the United Nations conference on climate change.

Meanwhile, negotiators faced tough sledding as solid language implementing confirmable climate change commitments remained elusive.  Various working groups continue focusing on separate tracks in hopes of creating some solid building blocks for an overall agreement.  In addition, diplomatic efforts are underway to craft concrete language "locking in" various countries’ promises in emissions reductions as "targets" which are verifiable.

The combination of the Nobel Prize ceremony and the anticipated arrival of over 100 world leaders including Nobel Laureate President Barack Obama has increased the pressure for reaching an accord.  Most agree that the structure for an agreement must be reached before the leaders arrive in Copehagen next week.  There are genuine fears that the massive increase in media attention and security may make it almost impossible to get much done at the conference next week.

Yet, there remains a cautious optimism that indeed some accord will be reached which reflects progress beyond the Kyoto Treaty and toward another treaty next year.  President Obama’s commitments on climate change and the corresponding Nobel ceremony only fueled that optimism.

‘Political agreement’ was the word of the day in late briefings yesterday and continuing today.  Its definition varies from country to country.

For the United States, it means an agreement that President Obama can sign when he comes next week with the full expectation that the United States will honor its terms even without Congressional action.  While the preference is for adoption by the Congress by simple majority votes as legislation (as opposed to ratification by the Senate as a treaty with a 2/3 vote), Parties have been assured that President Obama can implement his commitments without Congressional action.

A serious and growing issue remains the role of the UN in monitoring, verifying, and enforcing emissions reductions commitments.  African countries have taken a high profile and vocal role in opposing early proposals for an supervising entity outside of the UN.  So far, the United States remains firm on its pre-conference position regarding a newly created structure outside of the UN for monitoring and enforcement.  Most regard this issue as one of the most significant impediments to a political agreement at COP-15.

Against the backdrop of the leaked Danish proposal, the morning turned the attention of participants toward the details of implementation.  For developing countries, the question has been "who gets the money?"  Among the delegates from developing countries, there appear to be two components to this question.  First, which countries get how much of the pool of funds for transition and adaptation?  Not surprisingly, there is much discussion on this point.  Second, who within the most undeveloped countries get to control the funds received.  There is genuine concern among environmentalists that some governments may not use the funds for real climate change initiatives.

For developed countries, there is the difficult question of enforcement.  While the early commitments have been significant, there is much discussion on exactly how such commitments can be enforced, and equally importantly, who will enforce them.  Recognizing that any accord will likely be the framework for a treaty to be fully crafted over the next six months, there is increased focus on the structures and metrics for enforcement.  EU countries are pressing hard for definiteness in commitments together with accountability. 

While expectations at COP-15 are higher, the response to the draft Danish proposal has highlighted the real challenges ahead for a meaningful document to which all attending countries can agree.  The question for later today will be whether the leaked draft proposal is a document on which signficant edits are made, or whether it is the first iteration of more framework drafts to come.  So far, it appears to be the latter.