Author: Jacob Jaffe

The Chargers have won 11 straight – no one wants to play them. The Colts haven’t played a real game in months – they’re rusty. The Cowboys are on fire – they can beat anyone. The Saints lost all their energy by losing their last three games – they can’t handle a high-powered offense.

Whoops. Shows you what momentum does for you.

Momentum is like a basketball team’s record on Fridays or head-to-head results from 50 years ago – it gives the media something to talk about for the days leading up to a game. And who can blame them? Writers and broadcasters have to talk about one matchup for days, so they have to keep coming up with new angles to discuss. There’s only so much you can say about schemes and players and statistics.

Of course, momentum does mean something. Anyone who has ever played a sport can tell you that it’s easier to play well when you’ve been playing well already.

Professional athletes should be able to bounce back and neutralize momentum though, and the NFL is probably the least conducive league to maintaining momentum. Football is played once per week, so there’s a long time for momentum to wear off. Also, football is such a physical game that players mainly react by instinct rather than feeling the pressure of the moment or trying to maintain positive momentum.

The proof of this could be seen this past weekend. The two hottest teams coming in, San Diego and Dallas, were by far the biggest disappointments. The Chargers were expected to steamroll the happy-to-be-there Jets, but the home team looked like the nervous underdogs, making numerous errors in crucial situations and allowing the unspectacularly consistent Rex Ryans to come out on top.

The Cowboys were the trendy upset pick of the weekend. In fact, so many people projected a road victory for “America’s team” that the betting line was nearly even. Instead, Dallas ran into a far superior team in Minnesota, and the Vikings dominated their overhyped counterparts, racking up more sacks (six) than the Cowboys had points (three).

The other two games also defied the expected rust vs. momentum battles. The Ravens and Cardinals both impressed a lot of experts with offensive explosions against good defenses in the first round. Although both were expected to lose in the wild card round, Baltimore and Arizona combined for 84 points to defeat New England and Green Bay, respectively.

These two teams rode their apparent momentum into matchups with two “rusty” number one seeds in Indianapolis and New Orleans. Both home teams had fallen off after undefeated starts, and both teams had question marks on defense, so many people expected the Ravens and Cardinals to have success on the offensive end. Instead, the Colts and Saints shut down their opponents, holding them to 17 points combined while forcing six turnovers.

Thus, in two short days, the whole concept of momentum was completely turned upside down. What does that tell us? Well, maybe there’s a reason these teams had the records they did. Maybe there’s a reason the Colts and Saints won their first 27 games combined. Maybe there’s a reason the Cowboys had the largest ups and downs of any team in the league, while the Vikings were consistently among the top teams in the NFC. It all comes back to execution – you can have all the momentum you want, but the team that plays better at the right time will win.

It sounds simple, but the stats don’t lie. So far in these playoffs, the team with more total yards is 8-0. The team that forces more turnovers is 8-0. That’s about as sure-fire of a formula as you’ll ever see.

Predictions and analysis are great, and I memorize the facts experts say on television as much as anyone. But things often don’t go the way people expect (in case you didn’t notice, the Jets are in the AFC Championship Game.)

As Chris Berman so appropriately says, “that’s why they play the games.”

Bowl season — a time to reach elite status or salvage a season. A time to knock off the big boys or cement your team’s success. A time to prove how competitive your conference is.

Someone forgot to tell the Pac-10.

After the regular season, many people, including yours truly, thought that the Pac-10 was the best — and certainly deepest — conference in all of college football. Seven of the 10 teams made bowl games. Five teams finished the regular season in the BCS Top 25, more than any other conference.

The Pac-10’s juggernaut USC had not just been dethroned — the Trojans were embarrassed, falling to fifth in a conference they once dominated. What some would call parity was thought to be depth. Six Pac-10 teams won eight or more games in the regular season and five of the six were in contention for a Rose Bowl berth in the final weeks.

This, combined with the Pac-10’s success in previous bowl seasons (5-0 last year and 4-2 two years ago), made fans excited about this year’s bowl games. Finally, a chance to show East Coasters that the best football in the nation is played out west. A chance to prove the doubters from the SEC wrong and to further legitimize the protests that Toby Gerhart is the true Heisman Trophy winner.

Whoops.

You might have heard what happened to Stanford. Losing 31-27 against perennial powerhouse Oklahoma when the Cardinal was missing its starting quarterback, redshirt freshman Andrew Luck, is certainly nothing to hang your head about — particularly for a program coming off seven consecutive losing seasons.

Of course, detractors like to point out that Oklahoma was missing its starting quarterback as well, former Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. Clearly this was an enormous loss, especially combined with the loss of All-American tight end Jermaine Gresham, but the Sooners have been playing nearly all year with backup quarterback Landry Jones — this was not as big of adjustment as it was for Stanford to miss Luck.

Stanford was an underdog by just over a touchdown, thus it’s no shock that it fell short. Still though, the Cardinal had an experienced backup Tavita Pritchard filling in and Stanford led at halftime, so there isn’t much of a sense of a moral victory. At least the Cardinal did not disappoint as much as the rest of the conference, though.

Of the six other Pac-10 teams, only two won their bowl games, while three lost by double digits. The games went as follows: Oregon State looked outmatched against BYU 44-20 in a game that was expected to be nearly a dead heat; Cal was dominated by Utah, 37-27, in a game Cal led 14-0; USC overcame a lackluster first half to outlast offensively-challenged Boston College, 24-13; UCLA came back from a halftime deficit to defeat Temple (which hadn’t been to a bowl game in 30 years), 30-21; Arizona got flat-out embarrassed by Nebraska 33-0; and Oregon laid an egg against Ohio State 26-17 in the Granddaddy of Them All. What makes this 2-4 bowl record even worse is that all six of these Pac-10 teams were favored to win their games by the oddsmakers.

As a Pac-10 fan and a hater of East Coast bias, this bowl season really hurt. I knew the Mountain West teams were very talented, so I thought BYU and Utah had a chance against Oregon State and Cal, but I expected the Beavers and Golden Bears to at least put up respectable performances. The wins by the L.A. schools were dull and expected, but at least they won. I cannot believe how poorly Arizona played against Nebraska — I would never have thought the Cornhuskers could score 33 points, not to mention hold Arizona scoreless.

Despite all these embarrassing performances, the toughest to handle for me was Oregon losing in the Rose Bowl. For once, all the experts predicted a win for the Pac-10 and Oregon seemed to finally be getting its share of hype. There seemed to be no way the Buckeyes could stop the high-powered Ducks offense, yet that’s exactly what they did.

Conferences are judged by their best teams and the Pac-10’s best teams could not deliver. The top four teams in the Pac-10 were outscored a combined 134-64 in the most important games of their seasons, which is frankly unacceptable.

I still believe the Pac-10 is one of the toughest conferences in the nation, but it’s hard to make a very compelling argument to support that now. Instead, Pac-10 fans have to resort to one of the most common clichés in sports.

There’s always next year.

Jacob Jaffe feels incredibly guilty about rooting for USC. Give him some joy by discussing the Trojans’ latest NCAA infractions at jwjaffe “at” stanford.edu.

EL PASO — The Stanford football team waited eight years to play in a bowl game, but it will have to wait longer to achieve its first bowl win since 1996. The Cardinal (8-5, 6-3 Pac-10) fell to the Oklahoma Sooners (8-5, 5-3 Big 12) 31-27 on New Year’s Eve at the Sun Bowl, which happens to be the site of Stanford’s last bowl win.

Stanford came into the game at a large disadvantage due to redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck’s finger injury, which was expected to severely limit his ability to play against Oklahoma. Despite numerous reports during the week of the game that his finger was improving, Luck did not dress for the game. The Cardinal instead had to rely on fifth-year senior Tavita Pritchard to lead the offense.

Although Pritchard has a great deal of starting experience, including the famous 24-23 upset of USC in 2007, he seemed overmatched by the Sooner defense, which ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring, red zone, total and rushing defense.

Pritchard had not started a game in over a year, and his rust showed early on when he threw an interception on the third play of the game. The Sooners wasted little time in cashing in Stanford’s mistake, as redshirt freshman quarterback Landry Jones threw a 30-yard strike to sophomore Ryan Broyles for the first score of the game.

Jones quickly returned the favor, though, throwing an interception to senior safety Bo McNally, who returned the ball 55 yards to the Oklahoma 14. Stanford cashed in that turnover as well, scoring on a one-yard run by junior fullback Owen Marecic.

Oklahoma then drove the length of the field, picking up 73 yards on 11 plays. Despite Jones completing all seven of his passes on the drive, Oklahoma was forced to settle for a field goal. On the attempt, freshman kicker Patrick O’Hara hit the upright, but the play was blown dead for a false start, and O’Hara converted his second chance.

Following another interception by Pritchard and a punt by Oklahoma, Stanford converted its best offensive play of the game. Pritchard rolled out from his own 39-yard line, avoiding the rush of All-American defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, and heaved a prayer upfield. Junior wide receiver Ryan Whalen adjusted to the severely underthrown pass and caught it in triple coverage, breaking multiple tackles and taking the ball all the way to the Oklahoma 19. Heisman runner-up and Doak Walker winner Toby Gerhart punched in the next play for a 19-yard touchdown, putting Stanford ahead for the first time in the game, 14-10.

The lead did not last long, though, because Jones and Broyles connected four times on the next drive, capped by a 13-yard touchdown. Stanford then responded with a 79-yard drive that ended with another impressive run by Gerhart, who evaded several tacklers, only to fumble into the end zone. Multiple Sooners had a chance to recover the fumble for a touchback, but Gerhart dove into the pile and found the ball to score the touchdown.

Up 21-17, Stanford held Oklahoma deep in Sooner territory, and senior cornerback Richard Sherman came in untouched to block the punt. Stanford took over at the Oklahoma 11, but was forced to settle for a field goal by junior kicker Nate Whitaker after a clipping penalty put the offense in a whole. The Cardinal held the Sooners scoreless on their final drive of the half to go into halftime leading 24-17.

Unfortunately for Stanford, though, the lead at halftime was the last of the game for the Cardinal. Oklahoma scored on the first drive of the second half when Jones hit Broyles for a third touchdown, and the Sooners never looked back.

The Cardinal could not manage any offense in the third quarter, and the Sooners scored another touchdown on a one-yard run by junior running back DeMarco Murray. Stanford received an enormous break when freshman cornerback Johnson Bademosi appeared to interfere with Broyles on a punt return, but the referees picked up the flag and awarded the ball to Stanford. Despite the break and a crucial personal foul penalty against Oklahoma, Stanford could only manage a field goal by Whitaker two minutes into the fourth quarter, making the score 31-27.

After both teams exchanged punts, Oklahoma embarked on a 17-play, 75-yard drive that used up over six minutes. O’Hara missed a 32-yard field goal, though, allowing Stanford one final drive with a chance to win the game.

The Cardinal could not even manage a first down, however, as Pritchard threw into coverage multiple times and Stanford could not convert on fourth down. Oklahoma ran the rest of the clock out to secure the victory.

Stanford’s disadvantage on the scoreboard was minuscule compared to its deficit on the stat sheets. Oklahoma outgained Stanford 477 yards to 262 yards for the game, converting 28 first downs to Stanford’s 13.

The Cardinal’s biggest disadvantage was in the passing game, where it could not stop the Sooners. Jones finished the game completing 30 of 51 passes for 418 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. On the other hand, Pritchard only completed eight of 19 passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

“That was the difference in the game, really, because our defense shut down the run,” said Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. “[We gave up] too many big plays, too many easy plays, too many yards in the passing game.”

Broyles caught a team-record 13 passes for 156 yards with a Sun Bowl-record three receiving touchdowns, and was named the Sun Bowl Most Valuable Player. Gerhart had a good day on the ground for the Cardinal, rushing 32 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns.

After the game, Gerhart was ambiguous about his future plans: “I’m not sure yet. I’ll talk about it with the coaches and my family and decided where to go from there.”

Most people expect Gerhart to enter the NFL Draft this year, but whether or not he stays at school, Stanford is optimistic about its future.

“Our guys fought as hard as they could,” Harbaugh said. “They’ve been to the top of the mountain, looked over and seen what’s on the other side and said, ‘This is where we want to be.’”