Author: Jane Hamsher

  • The Difference Between Hollywood and Washington, D.C.

    Mr. Smith: a great work of fiction; a lousy way to govern (image via mueredecine on flickr)

    Everyone knows the joke — “Washington DC is Hollywood for ugly people.” But having done time in both places, I thought I’d offer up my impressions on how the two compare:

    HOLLYWOOD: Lives and dies on boxoffice. Sometimes a filmmaker (like Danny Boyle) throws caution to the wind and says “screw it, I don’t care if it doesn’t have any stars, I’m going to make the movie I want to make,” and you get Slumdog Millionaire.

    DC: Lives and dies by the polls. Sometimes a politician (like FDR) throws caution to the wind and says “screw it, I don’t care if I don’t have any Republicans, I’m going to pass the bill I want to pass,” and you get Social Security.

    HOLLYWOOD: Loves a hero. Mr. Smith goes to Washington DC to challenge the cynicism of corrupt politicians and fight for ordinary Americans.

    DC: Loves a hero. Mr. Obama goes to Washington DC to challenge the cynicism of corrupt politicians and fight for ordinary Americans.

    HOLLYWOOD: The villain is a guy who pretends to be helping the hero fight for the public good, but is secretly cutting back room deals that sell their interests out in order to enrich the company and increase their own power.

    DC: The villain is a guy who pretends to be helping the hero fight for the public good, but is secretly cutting back room deals that sell their interests out in order to enrich the party and increase their own power.

    HOLLYWOOD: When the villain’s misdeeds are exposed and they fail to achieve their objectives, the audience feels good that justice has triumphed and order has been restored.

    DC: When the villain’s misdeeds are exposed and they fail to achieve their objectives, the DC press hails them as heroic “pragmatists” and calls everyone a dreamy-eyed fool with their head in the clouds for ever thinking that anything else was possible.

    HOLLYWOOD: Knows the difference between a hero and a villain. Not surprised when a movie fails because the audience finds it emotionally unsatisfying.

    DC: Populated by political stenographers who can’t seem to tell the difference between a hero and a villain. Stunned when the general public can.

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  • Obama Supports Lincoln in Primary

    Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) at at presser with Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) (photo: Wikipedia)

    Not a surprise, really that Obama is supporting Blanche Lincoln in her primary race against Bill Halter.  She is after all the incumbent:

    White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs confirmed today that Obama will keep with his trend of supporting the sitting senator in party primaries, as he’s done with Sen. Arlen Specter over Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania and in supporting Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado.

    “We support Senator Lincoln as an incumbent senator,” Gibbs told reporters today during his daily briefing.

    Here’s my question, though.   Blanche is blasting Halter for having out-of-state support in his bid to unseat her.

    Is she going to forgo support from outside the state?  Do Barack Obama and the DSCC hail from Arkansas too?  How about her donors at Blue Cross/Blue Shield, Monsanto, Pfizer, Koch Industries — or the lobbyists at Patton Boggs, Mehlman Vogel Castagnetti, and Akin Gump?

    I guess the lesson learned is that in Blanche’s world, “out of state” + powerful = good, “out of state” + grassroots = bad.

    Donate to Halter’s campaign here.

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  • Accountability Now Announces First Candidate: Bill Halter

    Accountability Now was started in 2008 for the express purpose of recruiting primary challengers who would hold entrenched members of the DC establishment accountable for their actions. Too often incumbents hold a stranglehold on their local party machines, and without hope of significant backing the candidates with the political experience to potentially defeat them did not want to risk their careers and challenge them.

    Blanche Lincoln stands for everything that’s wrong with both parties: her primary loyalty is to her DC cohorts and her corporate donors, and she thinks it’s her job to pick the taxpayer pocket on their behalf.

    We are delighted that our efforts to draft Bill Halter and organize institutional support for his campaign led to his decision to enter the race. We look forward to working with the groups in Accountability Now and the people of Arkansas to support him in this race and to see him sworn in as the next Senator from Arkansas.

    Donate to Halter’s campaign here.

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  • Greenwald, Weiner Talk Health Care on Morning Joe: No Reason Not to Vote on Public Option

    I still don’t think the Senate/White House bill is going anywhere, either with or without a public option, for reasons I’ve outlined before — though some seem to be hell-bent on forcing House Democrats to throw themselves on its funeral pyre. But the idea that they’d even try to pass it using reconciliation without a public option, after months of insisting they couldn’t include a public option because gosh darn it there just weren’t 60 votes in the Senate, is insane.

    Anthony Weiner, Glenn Greenwald and Joe Scarborough pointed out the obvious this morning– the public option is substantially more popular than the Senate/White House bill. Now that only 50 votes are needed, there is no good argument to be made for even trying to pass a bill without one — it’s simply a way to pay off Rahm Emanuel’s backroom deals.

    Weiner has also been outspoken on the subject of ending the insurance industry anti-trust exemption. He is one of the FDL Fire Dogs we’ll be helping in 2010, so if you’d like to donate to his campaign through ActBlue, you can do it here.


  • Glenn Greenwald, Daniel Ellsberg at the New School

    I spent the day at the New School listening to Glenn Greenwald and Daniel Ellsberg speak on “The Recurrence on Limits of Knowledge.” Joining them was Chris Capozzola of MIT and David Barstow of the NYT, subbing for Eric Lichtblau.

    As amusing as it would’ve been to see Glennzilla scrap with Litchtblau, I loved hearing Barstow speak. He broke the Pentagon Generals story, one of the best pieces of investigative journalism in recent memory, and advocated for government contractors being subject to FOIA requests.

    I have to say, I like that suggestion a lot.

    We also got to meet Barry Eisler, author of the novel Inside Out, who will be with us on the Book Salon on July 3. (Not to give anything away, but Dan Froomkin appears as an FBI Agent, Marcy Wheeler is the antagonist’s ex-wife, I appear as a Director of Information Security, and both Josh Marshall and John Cole are on ex-boyfriend duty.)

    It’s snowing here in NY, it’s my friend Mary Jane’s birthday, and yes, we are having a whole lot of fun.

  • Ruth Marcus Does the Health Care Vote Math

    Ruth Marcus has a good rundown of the mathematical hurdles facing the White House as they try to pass their health care bill:

    In the House, the only way to cobble together a majority will be to secure votes from moderate Democrats who balked at passing the bill the first time around. These are the lawmakers who are most rattled by the Massachusetts vote — with good reason. For a Democratic House member in a swing district, the politics counsel against voting yes. “This is a career-ending vote,” one Democrat told me — and this was a lawmaker who voted for the original bill.

    With the House down a few members, 217 votes will be needed for passage. The original House measure passed with 220 votes — with 39 Democrats defecting. But two of those yes votes are gone: John Murtha of Pennsylvania died; Robert Wexler of Florida resigned. A third, Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii, is leaving at the end of the month to run for governor. The lone Republican voting for the measure, Joseph Cao of Louisiana, is no longer on board.

    Meanwhile, the president’s proposal does not include the anti-abortion language inserted in the House-passed measure by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), largely because the Senate would have difficulty fiddling with abortion language under the restrictive rules of the reconciliation process. So Stupak will be gone, and with him another five votes, perhaps more.

    There are a few liberal lawmakers who might be wooed back — Ohio’s Dennis Kucinich, for instance, voted against the first version — but not enough to make up the difference. So the fate of the measure rests with the conservative Democratic Blue Dogs. A few are retiring — including John Tanner and Bart Gordon of Tennessee — and might be persuaded to switch their votes. This would help, but probably not enough.

    I’ve always thought that the votes Stupak brought with him were much less than he claimed, more likely in the 3-5 range. But he may hold more than that going in to a final vote as members from conservative districts look for an excuse to vote against the bill.

    Marcus says that the President’s bill is more “moderate” than the House bill. I think forcing Americans to pay 8% of their income to private companies is actually a really extreme thing to do, but even putting that argument aside, the President’s bill is indisputably more unpopular than the House bill.

    People would rather have wealthy people foot the bill than have their existing insurance coverage weakened

    Nancy Pelosi brags that “80 percent of the excise tax on high-cost insurance plans” has been eliminated, but as Dave Dayen explains, it’s wasn’t:

    [The excise] tax initially came into play in 2014; now it gets delayed to 2018 for all plans, not just union plans. The tax at 2018 was designed to rise annually by the CPI + 1%. That would mean that the 2018 level of the excise tax was always going to be around $27,500, which is the new threshold they’re calling an “increase.” It’s a bit of a “fun with math” game.

    So let’s look at how brutally unpopular the excise tax of the President’s plan is as a way to pay for health care reform, vs. the tax on the wealthy included in the House bill. According to polling done by Lake Research/Anzalone Partners in Sept. 2009 (PDF):

    President’s Bill

    National House Swing Maine

    House Bill

    National House Swing Maine
    “Cadillac”Tax
    Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Tax on wealthy
    Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
    Placing a tax on the
    highest-cost private
    insurance policies in
    order to pay for health
    care reform”
    41% 54% 29% 55% 40% 50% “Raising taxes on
    households making
    more than three
    hundred fifty
    thousand dollars
    a year in order to pay
    for health care reform”
    60% 40% 53% 43% 57% 38%

    The polling finds that the House surcharge is significantly more popular in swing districts than the Cadillac tax. The Anzalone pollsters also found that “voters are less likely to re-elect their member of Congress or President Obama by margins of 41 points (63% less likely to 22% more likely) and 38 points (61% to 23%), respectively, if they support an excise tax.”

    The polling also determines that independent voters flee over the issue: “Across each region, opposition to taxing high-cost insurance plans is even higher among Independents, with 74% of these voters overall opposed to such a tax.”

    A couple of anomalous polls maybe? Well, maybe not. . .:

    Cadillac vs. Wealth Tax

    WaPo/ABC

    Oct. 15-18, 2009

    USA Today/Gallup

    Oct. 16-19, 2009

    Associated
    Press

    Oct.29-Nov.9
    2009
    Rasmussen
    Jan. 18-19, 2010
    Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
    Cadillac Tax (President’s plan) 35% 61% 38% 59% 38% 59% 33% 63%
    Tax on wealthy (House)
    61% 34% 61% 34% 64% 35%

    And then there’s the mandate

    They also asked voters which they preferred: an individual mandate to buy insurance from a private company, or the the individual mandate with the choice of a public option. Here’s what they found:

    President’s Bill

    National House Swing Maine

    House Bill

    National House Swing Maine
    Individual mandate
    Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Mandate + PO Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
    “Requiring everyone
    to buy and be
    covered by a private
    health insurance plan”
    34% 64% 34% 60% 35% 55% “Requiring everyone to
    buy and be covered by
    a health insurance plan
    with a choice between
    a public option and
    private insurance plans”
    60% 37% 50% 46% 55% 40%

    It appears that in these key swing districts, voters just don’t like being forced to pay money to private insurance companies. And I actually don’t think this is an adequate snapshot of what people really feel about the individual mandate, because when we polled swing districts we found that what people really objected to was not the mandate but the fine of up to 2% of their annual income for non-compliance. Our numbers had an even bigger swing for Arkansas-02, Ohio 01, New York 01 and Indiana 09.

    The President’s plan now increases that fine to a maximum of 2.5% of annual income.

    As I wrote in January, Obama and most Senate incumbents don’t really have to worry about the electoral consequences of getting a “win” and passing the Senate bill. The Senate’s “pride of authorship” and desire to pay off their big donors has rendered them recalcitrant even now that the “60 vote” myth has been blown up.

    As Marcus notes, however, Democratic House members see their own political futures coming to an end in 2010, in a “we are all Martha Coakley” moment that no amount of spin will take away. Districts like AR-02 and OH-01 were listed as “tossup” races, but polling by SurveyUSA showed the incumbents down 17 points against their Republican opponents. Even as the DCCC was furiously trying to deny the validity of our polls, Stu Rothenberg shifted 28 races toward the GOP in the wake of the Massachusetts election.

    Meanwhile, the one House Democrat who has performed surprisingly well in a Republican leaning district — Larry Kissell — notably did not vote for the House health care bill. When PPP polled the district in January, they found Kissell leads all his GOP opponents by 14 points.

    Does anyone think it’s more likely that wavering Democrats will switch their vote for a health care bill which now includes components that are even more unpopular?

    Rick Klein has a rundown of various responses to the President’s health care bill. Those who predict House Democrats will fall in line and switch their votes believe they will do so in order to give Obama a “win.” In order to do that, however, these Democrats will have to be convinced that the President’s bill is more popular than the House bill they voted against, and it’s not going to cost them their seats.

    I think Ruth Marcus has the math — and the conventional wisdom among Democratic House members — about right. Color me skeptical.

  • The Glenn Greenwald Dramatic Reenactment of the Health Care Timeline

    (photo: Eric in SF)

    A play in two acts:

    Progressives: We want a public option!

    Democrats/WH: We agree with you totally! Unfortunately, while we have 50 votes for it, we just don’t have 60, so we can’t have it. Gosh darn that filibuster rule.

    Progressives: But you can use reconciliation like Bush did so often, and then you only need 50 votes.

    Filbuster reform advocates/Obama loyalists: Hey progressives, don’t be stupid! Be pragmatic. It’s not realistic or Serious to use reconciliation to pass health care reform. None of this their fault. It’s the fault of the filibuster. The White House wishes so badly that it could pass all these great progressive bills, but they’re powerless, and they just can’t get 60 votes to do it.

    [Month later]

    Progressives: Hey, great! Now that you’re going to pass the bill through reconciliation after all, you can include the public option that both you and we love, because you only need 50 votes, and you’ve said all year you have that!

    Democrats/WH: No. We don’t have 50 votes for that (look at Jay Rockefeller). Besides, it’s not the right time for the public option. The public option only polls at 65%, so it might make our health care bill — which polls at 35% — unpopular. Also, the public option and reconciliation are too partisan, so we’re going to go ahead and pass our industry-approved bill instead . . . on a strict party line vote.

    Props needed: football (optional), left over from prior seasons’ FISA and war funding performances. Slightly used, but never seems to get old.

  • Student Aid or Bankster Aid? Gorelick, Podesta and Scumbagapalooza

    School budgets are being slashed across the country in a crisis of state funding. In California, students were arrested for protesting tuition hikes. Even Arnold Schwarzenegger called them a “tipping point,” and urged a constitutional amendment to divert money from prisons to schools.

    But in Washington, DC, lobbyists like Tony Podesta and Jamie Gorelick proudly try to grab billions in education funding so that Citibank, JP Morgan, Sallie Mae and other banks can cover their gambling losses on credit default swaps:

    Since last March, Democratic insider Tony Podesta and a bipartisan team from his firm — including Lauren Maddox, who was assistant secretary for communications in President George W. Bush’s Education Department, and Paul Brathwaite, former executive director of the Congressional Black Caucus — have been lobbying lawmakers and mobilizing support among Sallie Mae employees who fear losing their jobs.

    They have been trying to persuade Congress to approve a compromise measure that would allow Sallie Mae to compete to administer the lucrative student loan business. Under Sallie’s plan, the government would own the student loans.

    Administration officials have criticized the lobbying effort, with one official noting that Podesta was running a “war room” to kill the White House plan.

    President Obama wants to pass the Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act (SAFRA), which cuts out these bankster middle men so the government can save $8.7 billion a year administering the loans directly. The bank lobbyists claim that 35,000 jobs will be lost if that happens. But that 35,000 figure is dubious — the entire student loan industry employs 30,000 people in total, and, as Pedro de la Torre writes in The Nation, the number of actual jobs lost could actually be in the hundreds. Hard to tell, because those who promote the 35,000 figure are so vague about its sourcing. It comes from a survey conducted by the National Council of Higher Education Loan Programs, but they don’t seem to document it anywhere on their site.

    The notion that all of those jobs will be lost — as the Senate Republican Policy Committee suggests — is ludicrous. These banks will continue to service the hundreds of billions of dollars in loans they already have, and they’ll also be able to compete (yes, compete) to service future loans.

    JP Morgan was the sixth biggest student loan originator in the country in 2008. They received $25 billion in TARP funds. Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan, received a $17 million bonus for 2009. They spent another $8 million lobbying, to make more money by protecting their business model, which seems to be socializing their losses and ripping off taxpayers for services nobody needs.

    How many community colleges are supposed to shut down, how many kids are supposed to forgo job training and higher education just so JP Morgan can have themselves another bailout good earnings quarter?


  • President’s Health Care Plan: Mandate Penalty Increased to 2.5%; Political Penalty on Dems: Priceless

    (photo: Mr Tickle)

    The President’s new health care bill does not include a public option, but it does increase the maximum penalty for failure to comply with the mandate to buy health insurance, which rises from 2% to 2.5% of annual income (PDF).

    But for months now, polling has shown that a mandate with no public option is an extremely unpopular combination. The annual penalty for failure to comply makes it even more unpopular in swing districts.

    I’m uncertain how this is supposed to sway nervous Democrats in the House to vote for the bill. Jon Cohen writes about possible outcomes of the President’s health care summit today, and agrees that the problem is no longer the Senate, but is, instead, the House:

    House, by all accounts, is the chamber that worries reformers the most. Centrists and freshmen are nervous about voting for a bill, given the latest poll numbers and rebuke to Democrats in Massachusetts last month. Liberals are less than thrilled about voting for a bill they deem to conservative.

    []

    Will Democrats, particularly in the House, get past their fear and vote for the bill? Really that’s what the summit is all about–convincing nervous Democrats that the Republicans really aren’t interested in compromise and that health care reform, despite the poll numbers, is still a good idea. (Hopefully somebody will mention to nervous Democrats the finding, consistent across polls, that the individual elements of reform remain extremely popular, even if the package as a whole isn’t.)

    The Democrats in Republican leaning districts want Republican cover before they’ll vote for anything. The White House knows they’re probably not going to get that, so they at least have to look like they tried. They will try to paint a picture that blames Republican obstructionism for a failure to achieve “bipartisan” support.

    With Obama’s own Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, out there telling everyone that Obama’s health care plan is “too liberal,” I can’t imagine how they think that this game plan will result in calming the fears of even one wavering Blue Dog. Raising the mandate penalty just gives more ammunition to the John Shaddegg argument for Republicans to use.

    Stu Rothenberg just shifted 28 seats in the “R” direction for the 2010 election. Don’t think nobody noticed.

  • Democrats: “Who Will Rid Us of This Meddlesome Public Option?”

    The “60 vote” bar on the public option was always a sham. But now that it’s gone, nobody wants to be Joe Lieberman and play the role of spoiler so PhRMA can have their deal.

    Ezra Klein reports:

    I’ve spoken to a lot of offices about this now, and all of them are ambivalent privately, even if they’re supportive publicly. No one feels able to say no to this letter, but none of them seem interested in reopening the wars over the public option. That’s why the White House kicked this at Reid and Reid tossed it back at the White House. If the public option is a done deal, everyone will sign on the dotted line. But between here and there is a lot of work that no one seems committed to doing, and that many fear will undermine the work being done on the rest of the bill.

    I totally support the efforts of the PCCC, DFA, CREDO and MoveOn to force the issue on the public option. There is absolutely zero reason not to include it in a health care bill passed through reconciliation, and everyone in Congress needs to be reminded of that fact. The last of the rationalizations for ditching the public option have been peeled off the pundit apologists, who now stand naked and exposed atop their piles of selectively chosen factoids and statistics. (And therein lies the danger of laundering “tips” fed to you by “anonymous sources” who keep their hands clean while you affix your name — you ultimately have to own it.)

    But the bottom line is that the health care bill that the White House drafted, the one they pushed through the Senate, the only one they ever wanted, is dead. There is not enough graft and payola in the world to get the Blue Dogs to line up for Martha Coakley duty. The only thing that MIGHT get their support is the cover of GOP votes, but there’s a lot more political hay to be made in GOP-leaning districts by opposing the wildly unpopular White House bill. Americans still want health care reform. They just don’t trust this bill, for good reason — and they’re not going to.

    And what’s more, everyone knows it. Ezra says the White House is sticking to its guns, and a public option won’t be in the bill that they unveil on Monday. And that’s because there is no “Plan B.” There never was. Nobody thought it through. The administration is now consumed with the “blame game,” pointing fingers and fighting over who will walk the plank for the failure of “health insurance reform.”

    Health care reform can still be achieved, but it’s going to have to be in a series of smaller steps that don’t involve sacrificing cost control to well-funded corporate lobbies trying to bribe their way into profitability. But it will be a while until everyone comes to grips with that fact.

    In the mean time, as someone who watched health care reform step-by-step along the way, this is Rahm’s fuckup. He did this. And Obama deserves his share of the blame because he empowered Rahm. Any attempt to offload responsibility to Axelrod, Gibbs, or Jarrett is a ludicrous exercise in irrational denial.

    Update: Jon Walker adds: “What a strange ‘Democracy’ we live in that an idea is too popular for any to stand against yet it might bring down the whole party and health care reform because many so deeply hate their supporters.”

  • Hatch Lash Fever

    Sen. Orrin Hatch (Scold-UT) (photo: musicFIRSTcoalition)

    Oh, this just amuses me no end. Orrin Hatch is turning into the Lanny Davis of the GOP:

    Sen. Orrin Hatch has a message for the Tea Party movement: Work with the GOP or see conservatives lose more ground.

    “If we fractionalize the Republican Party, we are going to see more liberals elected,” Hatch warned a crowd of 300 at a town meeting at American Fork Junior High School on Wednesday night, amid jeers from Tea Party supporters.

    Hatch blamed the Tea Party movement for the loss of Sen. Gordon Smith, a politically moderate but fiscally conservative Republican from Oregon.

    Hatch said if the Tea Party had not backed a constitutionalist candidate in that race, Brown wouldn’t have lost to Democrat Jeff Merkley, whom Hatch described as “the most liberal senator,” by 45,000 votes. But Hatch’s critics said he was not interested in listening to them.

    Translation:  “Hey, you populist hicks, don’t infringe my right to sell the party off to the highest bidder or the liberal bogeymen will eat you!”

    Well gee, Gordon Smith actually voted for the 2008 bank bailout, the bete noir of the tea parties.  Then again, so did Orrin Hatch.  While Glenn Beck cheered them on.

    When the bank bailout part deux came up in 2009, progressive Jeff Merkeley voted against it. Hatch took the chickenshit way out and voted “present.”

    So, ’splain to me again exactly what was lost?

    Brrrr. Ugga bugga!  Homos!  Snowflake babies!  What?  No, that’s not my hand on your wallet.  You’re imagining things.

  • Baron Hill Is Losing by 8 Points to His GOP Opponent and Other Tales of the Painfully Obvious

    (image: twolf1)

    The breathless Marc Ambinder prints this today:

    Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is blasting Democratic activist Jane Hamsher for using Survey USA to essentially poll-pressure Blue Dog Democrats into retirement.

    Really? We’re trying to pressure Blue Dogs into retirement? Where? Well, he doesn’t say.

    The fact that the poll was on health care, and we’ve been writing about health care solidly for the past 8 months, seems to have escaped his notice. Are the polls accurate? Yes, but that doesn’t matter, printing them is tantamount to “poll pressure.”

    There’s a key piece of information Ambinder seems to have omitted from the article:

    BARON HILL IS LOSING BY 8 POINTS TO HIS GOP OPPONENT

    A word to the wise: don’t look to the the twitchy and the hyperventilating as role models of political sophistication.

    You may be asking yourself why so many “journalists” are offering themselves up to outsource these smears today (rather than address the accuracy of our polling). Well, it looks like our poll may have mucked up Rahm Emanuel’s plans to slide Baron Hill into Evan Bayh’s seat without a primary.

    BARON HILL IS LOSING BY 8 POINTS TO HIS GOP OPPONENT MIKE SODREL

    It’s a little hard to insist that democracy be dispensed with on behalf of a candidate who is getting clobbered in his own district and carries all the baggage of a member of Congress, one of the most unpopular groups of people in the country right now.

    Rahm Ambinder goes on to say that Bayh “really grew to dislike the influence of liberal activists on his Senate colleagues.” Well, it’s nice to know Bayh found the strength to vote against Byron Dorgan’s drug reimportation amendment that would have saved both the government and the public billions of dollars in drug costs. Having taken $439,000 in campaign donations from pharmaceutical companies alone, what’s a guy to do?

    BARON HILL IS LOSING BY 8 POINTS TO HIS GOP OPPONENT MIKE SODREL

    How dare those “liberals” blast Bayh on TV for threatening to torpedo health care reform if it included a public option, to the direct financial benefit of himself and his wife, who sits on the board of Wellpoint.

    I’m sure the specter of having to personally wear the health care bill after it was tailored to his specific demands in order to earn Bayh’s cloture vote had nothing to do with it.

    BARON HILL IS LOSING BY 8 POINTS TO HIS GOP OPPONENT MIKE SODREL

    The truth is, we had no idea Vic Snyder was 17 points down when we polled his Arkansas district a week before the Brown-Coakley election, but I’m pretty sure he didn’t retire because it was false. Neither did we have any intention to drive Barron Hill out of the race, and we certainly didn’t know Rahm was grooming him for Bayh’s seat.

    But if Rahm Emanuel’s plan to jam the anti-choice, anti-EFCA, homophobic Hill onto the ticket was disrupted as a result of our polling, don’t hold your breath waiting for me to get too worked up about it.

    Baron Hill may be a favorite of the DC establishment, but he’s got so much negative baggage going in it would be almost impossible for him to win — certainly without the help of the unions. Anything that keeps him off the ticket is a favor to the entire Democratic party.

    Oh, and by the way, in case you run into Marc Ambinder:

    BARON HILL IS LOSING BY 8 POINTS TO HIS GOP OPPONENT MIKE SODREL

  • Join Me at the Press Club Tonight

    I’ll be at the Press Club in Washington DC tonight for a panel on “The Future of News.” My fellow panelists include:

    • Robert W. McChesney, professor, University of Illinois. Co-founder of Free Press
    • John Nichols, journalist, The Nation, and associate editor of the Capital Times, the daily newspaper in Madison, Wis. Co-founder of Free Press
    • Chris Hayes, Washington, DC editor of The Nation
    • Ivan Roman, executive director of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists

    The event is free and open to the public. It starts at 7pm.

    It is co-sponsored by Free Press, The Nation, UNITY: Journalists of Color, the National Association of Black Journalists, the National Association of Hispanic Journalists and Firedoglake.

    As you might well imagine, it’s something I think about a lot. I’m excited to be able to talk about it with really smart people who are also trying to address the challenge of delivering news in the digital age.

    More details here, and you can also join the Facebook event.

  • FDL Challenges DCCC: Let’s Do a Poll Together

    (photo: Theron Trowbridge)

    Politico has an article about the polls we commissioned prior to the Brown/Coakley election, which determined that Democrats in key swing districts were in trouble. The DCCC has trotted out every partisan loyalist they can find to discount the results, but I think this says it all:

    “If they don’t like the poll, why don’t they release the polling of their own?” Hamsher asked.

    A DCCC official turned down Hamsher’s challenge, saying the committee wouldn’t release its internal polling.

    One House Democratic aide said the party decided to engage in a concerted pushback on the polls because, “in some cases, people had the perception the sky was falling,” and the questions about the surveys “needed to be told.”

    Really? Questions about the surveys “needed to be told,” but an anonymous “House Democratic aide” won’t even give their name? Well, the truth is that the numbers tell the story. And if you’re not willing to address the numbers, you’ve got no story. All you’ve got is “spin.”

    As I told Politico (which they didn’t print), “If you think that the purpose of polling is to make your candidates look good, that perspective makes sense. Would they tell ABC or the Wall Street Journal or Gallup that they shouldn’t run a poll for its news value, but only for propaganda purposes? That may be how a candidate uses a poll, but a news organization has no credibility if they spike a poll because they don’t get the results that advance a particular political objective.”

    FDL chose SurveyUSA because of their reputation for accuracy. They are non-partisan, and they were the pollsters with best record of accuracy in the Presidential primaries. They also came highly recommended by Nate Silver. As a testament to their commitment to accuracy, they went back in good faith and re-weighted their figures to reflect the critique of every hack the DCCC trotted out, and got the same result.

    Has the DCCC responded, or adjusted their accusations? Nope, they just went on to the next hack — who had no trouble peddling the same story.

    You’d think companies like the Global Strategy Group would have credibility problems with brand-conscious clients like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the American Cancer Society, GLAD, NARAL, Planned Parenthood, the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation and the Commonwealth Fund for using their name to actively promote political propaganda they knew at the time to be factually inaccurate, but perhaps these organizations are “too big to care.”

    Daily Kos releases all the results of their polling as a matter of policy, no matter what comes back, for good or bad. So do we. To do anything else means you’re not conducting scientific polling, you’re trying to cherrypick numbers so you can put out a press release. You’re no longer in the “reality based community,” you’re trying to “create your own reality” — just like George Bush famously did.

    We all know how that worked out.

    The real story here is that with many different organizations like ours conducting polls, the DCCC can no longer control the results by doling out who gets business and who doesn’t. One of the reasons we chose SurveyUSA was because of their non-partisan status, and we knew they wouldn’t be looking to please either the DNC or the RNC first and foremost. The only surprise is that there are journalists (or bloggers) who keep peddling party propaganda as if it were their own idea, don’t make anyone go on the record with their names, and don’t demand that they “put up or shut up” with their own polling results before running the story.

    Here’s what Public Policy Polling (not controlled by the DCCC) had to say about the FDL/SurveyUSA polls:

    It’s probably not party line for me to say this but the issue of SurveyUSA’s age weighting on its Firedoglake polls is just kind of a distraction from the poll results.

    []

    The takeaway from the SurveyUSA polls in these districts based on the numbers as they were released was that Steve Driehaus and Baron Hill were in big trouble and Tim Bishop was in the most trouble he’s been in in quite a long time. Reweight the numbers for age and while the numbers improve for the Democrats, I don’t think the overall conclusions do.

    Yes, there is a “party line” on polling. And many are destroying their reputations as poll analysts who care about accuracy by toeing it, without regard for the accuracy of results.

    When Parker Griffith bolted the Democratic Party, he downloaded all of the DCCC’s polls on the way out the door. They have their own polling in all of these districts, it’s out there, and they know it’s bad or they’d be releasing it rather than taking swipes other results and trying to engage in a lesson in “party discipline.”

    So, here’s a challenge to the DCCC: If you think the FDLSurveyUSA results for Tim Bishop, Barron Hill, Vic Snyder and Steve Driehaus are wrong, that Martha Coakley was just a “bad candidate,” and the Democrats really aren’t in any trouble, let’s poll the districts again. Together. We’ll choose a non-partisan polling firm that’s mutually agreeable, split the cost, and see if the FDL/SurveyUSA results hold up.

    And what’s more, we’ll make the same offer to local media outlets in these districts who would like to join us in re-polling these races.

    We’ve shown all our results. The DCCC has done nothing but spin. It’s time for them to back up all the trash-talk with some action.

  • Nevada Tea Party Bolts the GOP and Glenn Beck

    Run away, Tea Party! (photo: stuant63 via Flickr)

    The Tea Party is evidently cutting its ties with the GOP in Nevada and pitching its own political tent.  Certainly  the best news Harry Reid has had all year:

    Sun columnist Jon Ralston is reporting that the Tea Party has qualified as a third party in Nevada and will have a candidate in the Senate race to battle for the seat held by Majority Leader Harry Reid.

    The party has filed a Certificate of Existence but needs to get 1 percent of the electorate to vote for its candidate in November to permanently qualify, according to the report.

    Ralston reported that Jon Ashjian will be the Tea Party’s U.S. Senate candidate on the November ballot. Ashjian still must declare his candidacy.

    Reid might actually have a chance if a Tea Party candidate can split the vote on the right, where Reid is currently down 10 points to most of his Republican opponents.

    But why would the Tea Party split from the GOP, right after their happy Nashville convention headlined by Sarah Palin?  Well, who knows.  It’s probably been in the works for a while.  But last week, after libertarian gubernatorial candidate Deborah Medina polled only 4 points behind Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Glenn Beck torpedoed her as a 9/11 Truther just as he did Van Jones, cheered on by Hot Air and the Washington Independent.

    It’s clear that the Sarah Palin social conservatives and the Neocons are somewhat less than interested in handing the GOP over to the Ron Paul libertarians, and “populist hero” Glenn Beck did their dirty work.  I guess the Tea Party folks are welcome to wave anti-Obama signs for the Fox cameras, but if they actually want to challenge any of the party brahmins — well, hands off.

    Looking over the bylaws of the Nevada Tea Party (PDF), however, it appears that they have dodged the issues of interventionism and first amendment rights, so it doesn’t settle many of the significant rifts between the Neocons and the libertarians.  The preamble says “we must protect our homeland,” but that evidently means “secur[ing] our borders against illegal immigration.”  Nothing about “illegal wars,” “domestic spying” or “civil liberties.”

    Fox News has tossed the Tea Parties a lot of free PR to co-opt their “fiscal responsibility” message, as if George Bush hadn’t been on the biggest drunken spending spree in the history of the federal government. They certainly weren’t aiming to hand the party over to the rabble, just give it an image overhaul. No doubt the long knives are being sharpened right now.

  • Hello Senator Hill or Ellsworth?

    Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN9). Is this the change you were looking for? (photo: Adam P Schweigert/WFIU )

    Why would Evan Bayh file to run for the Senate, and then pull out 24 hours before the deadline for signatures to be filed?

    Well, because the Indiana Democratic Party gets to choose Bayh’s replacement on the ticket. And that means unless you can pull a candidate out and line up 500 signatures in each district to be filed by noon tomorrow, you’re a write-in.

    How does the sound of Senator Hill or Senator Ellsworth sound?

    Well, Rahm was in town doing a fundraiser for Hill recently. This has, no doubt, been in the works for a while.

    But FDL/SurveyUSA polling from Jan. 16-18 indicates Hill is running 8 points behind Mike Soddrel for his own seat:

    If there were an election for US House of Representatives today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Baron Hill and Republican Mike Sodrel, who would you vote for?

    41% Baron Hill (D)
    49% Mike Sodrel (R)
    10% Undecided

    I wouldn’t call this an “in the tank” choice for the D’s.

    Update: According to Dave Dayen in the comments, the Indiana Democratic Party can only replace Bayh on the general election ballot if there is no primary.  If anyone gets sufficient signatures by tomorrow, there will be a primary and Bayh’s name can’t be replaced.

  • OFA’s Magical Activism

    The new western White House? (photo: Express Monorail)

    Last week, we launched our 2010 FDL Fire Dogs contest to determine which members of Congress the FDL community would support with both fundraising and volunteer hours. Yesterday, OFA launched a similar effort to get volunteers to support members of Congress — but the criteria was somewhat less than clear. This email arrived this morning from Lynda Tran of the DNC Press:

    Just 24 hours after launching the initiative, OFA supporters have already committed more than 3 million hours of their time to help candidates who fight for health reform — and that number is continuing to grow.

    In fact, OFA supporters met our goal of pledging 1,000,000 hours to supporting Congressional leaders who stand up for health insurance reform just hours after OFA Director Mitch Stewart’s e-mail announcing the effort yesterday. Today those commitments are continuing to roll in.

    This display of enthusiasm shows just how determined OFA activists are about passing meaningful health insurance reform — and how hard they’re willing to fight to support President Obama’s vision for America.

    So, does that mean the Senate bill is now “President Obama’s vision for America?” I’ll assume Raul Grijalva, and anyone in the House who continues to support the bill they passed instead, is still a “monster” and unqualified to participate.

    Did they happen to mention that the members who don’t want to vote for health care reform now are the ones in the most conservative districts? Are these OFA members so enthralled with “President Obama’s vision for America” that they’re gonna hump to Alabama and swarm the district for the anti-immigrant, anti-gay rights Rep. Bobby Bright, who has voted against everything from Lilly Ledbetter to SCHIP? Perhaps they can all buy hand guns and wave ‘em around Montgomery in a symbolic gesture of support.

    Or, maybe they just opened the email and said, yeah, I’ll select the most hours allowed in the dropdown. 20 hours? Sure!

    OFA could have provided enormous support to Democratic members of Congress, which they critically needed in 2009. With 13 million enthusiastic members, they could have launched a fundraising drive right after the election that swelled the coffers of every Democrat in Congress and freed them from their ties to lobbyists.

    But those were the ties that Rahm Emanuel was trying to forge, not break, so that didn’t happen. And, as Tim Dickinson of Rolling Stone recently reported, when OFA finally awakened to the need to support Martha Coalkley, “OFA discovered that most of its 13 million supporters had tuned out. Only 45,000 members responded to the last-minute call to arms.”

    OFA is always a day late and a dollar short. Last year, when it became clear that tea party activists had plans to disrupt Democratic town halls in August, FDL crowd-sourced all of the events, put them up in a searchable widget and organized progressives to show up and support these Democrats. We also had an event reporting tool to keep track of what was happening. Weeks later, OFA did the same thing.

    Their consistent inability to do something meaningful with the most powerful email list ever assembled is probably the biggest FAIL in the age of online activism. Their most consistent presence on the internet seems to be the overlap between their members and Cass Sunstein’s creepy “cognitive infiltrators.” If they truly wanted to support Democratic infrastructure, they’d launch a fundraiser and let the list choose the members they wanted to support.

    I’m gonna bet it wouldn’t be Bobby Bright.

    When we announced that the winners of the Fire Dogs contest were Dennis Kucinich, Alan Grayson and Anthony Weiner, I wrote:

    After coming up for air from the health care battle, I can honestly say that there’s nothing more important than breaking the link between lobbyist money and campaigns — but campaign finance reform alone isn’t enough. Developing an alternative progressive financing apparatus is a must.

    In a year when even safe Democrats are facing serious challenges to their seats, the online community can provide support by virtue of our numbers that lobbyists can’t.

    Now that the President is inviting the Republicans to the White House and trying to jam their ideas into the Senate bill in order to pass it, “the President’s vision” has devolved into “whatever ends up passing.”

    As Eli said, “if Paul Ryan’s plan passes, then *that* will be “the President’s vision.”

    We’ve been speaking with the Kucinich, Grayson and Weiner campaigns about how we can provide the most help to them. Each of these members is a consistent leader on different progressive issues, and our community is showing tangible support in a tough election year for those who have a proven track record and consistently stand up for what they believe in. That’s substantially different from “magical activism” pledged out of personal devotion to the President and a nebulous health care vision.

    You can donate to the 2010 Fire Dog campaigns or sign up to phone bank now.

  • Hookers and Mercenaries on the Taxpayer Dime: Get Your 21st Century War On

    Carol Leonig of the Washington Post has this headline today:

    2 ex-employees say Blackwater billed government for prostitute

    Two former employees of Blackwater Worldwide have accused the private security contractor of defrauding the government for years with phony billing, including charging for a prostitute, alcohol and spa trips.

    Sure is a good thing that the military budget has an exemption from the spending freeze.

    For the past nine years, the terror pimps have demagogued any opposition to outrageous increases in defense spending as “hating America.” Meanwhile, the Bush Administration resisted any investigation into no-bid contracts handed out to big campaign donors without any experience by claiming it would compromise national security.  If the priority was truly “fiscal responsibility” and not manipulating approval numbers, one would think the black hole they’ve been stuffing all the graft into would be a good place to start.

    And then there’s this:

    In one instance, the Davises claimed the company was paying inflated prices to a vendor whose work was billed to the Department of Homeland Security for services related to post-Hurricane Katrina security. They said the overpayments allowed the vendor to provide a barbecue pit grill for Blackwater staff parties.

    Why would anyone think that Joe Lieberman, whose job as Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee seems to be insuring that this stuff never gets investigated while the Democrats control the Senate, should have his gavel removed?

    Well, I just can’t imagine why myself. Anyone who thinks Joe isn’t doing a fabulous job must be a “purist” who wants to “purge” the sensible “centrists” from the party.

  • 2010 Fire Dogs: Kucinich, Grayson and Weiner Win

    Scarecrow's dog Walden

    After a week of voting that saw over 110,000 votes cast, the winners of the FDL 2010 Fire Dogs Contest are:

    First Place: Dennis Kucinich, 24,967 votes
    Second Place: Alan Grayson, 17,296 votes
    Third Place: Anthony Weiner, 13,160 votes

    Each of these members of Congress will all receive a $10,000 FDL ActBlue fundraiser, and the FDL community will phone bank into their districts to ID 500 likely voters for GOTV efforts. At that point, we’ll open up the contest for Round 2, and start it again in a contest for three more candidates.

    Donate and sign up for phone banking now!

    So, what’s the secret? How do these three get their supporters to show up for them like that? Having worked with many many progressive members of Congress, this is what these Reps do that others don’t:

    1. Treat online supporters like others treat lobbyists: Grayson, Kucinich and Weiner treat the online community like Jim Himes treats Goldman Sachs. Whereas Himes calls up his bankster donors before he takes a votes, these three go online and made their case to online activists.
    2. Take action on issues progressives care about: Kucinich was quick to announce he’d hold hearings into the Christmas eve bailout of Fannie & Freddie, which the FDL community thanked him for by raising $3,200 in a couple days. That’s more than most checks that a lobbyist would write, just for doing what he believes in. No moral compromise involved.
    3. Speak up in the media about populist concerns: Grayson is particularly good about getting his message on television, and his questions at House Financial Services Committee hearings have made him a YouTube star (2.1 million views for questioning the Inspector General of the Federal Reserve). Weiner is a familiar face on CNBC.
    4. Operate at the pace of the blogosphere: See Grayson’s appearance on FDL the day Citizens United was announced, to talk about bills he has offered in response. People were just digesting the Supreme Court decision, upset and looking for direction, which Grayson had anticipated. A day or two later something else might have pushed it out of the news cycle and the intensity would not have been so high.
    5. Know when you’ve got something that will go viral, and get it out there: Can’t tell you how many times I’ve had people cheering some moment on TV in the comment section, and I’ve asked an office if they have video or if the Rep wants to come talk about it. Mostly they never get back or they finally remember a couple of weeks later. If people are already organically chattering, that means something, but it doesn’t last long if you don’t feed it. These Reps know how to work that successfully.
    6. Tap into existing networks: Kucinich and Weiner have been big supporters of single payer health care. Grayson championed Audit the Fed and got money bomb help from the libertarians. Both groups have big, existing online networks that support their efforts.
    7. Work your email list: As a result of their efforts, all three have developed reliable progressive brand names and have been able to build up big email lists that they can tap when they need to. All three sent out emails asking their supporters to vote for them. Totally kosher. And that means we have more people we can enlist to phone bank and help GOTV efforts in their districts, which helps them, as well as those in downticket races who could fall to low turnout in 2010.

    We made a big effort to reach out to House offices to let them know the contest was on, and offered to help them get their message out about issues they care about. I was really surprised to find that many had no idea how to interact with blogs and it never occurred to them to go online and keep people informed about what they were doing on issues they have championed.

    Every one of them said they would love to be liberated from scurrying around for PAC money. I told them all we’d be happy to help them and that the best thing to do was to start communicating sooner, rather than later. . . they need to build bridges now so they’ll be there when they need them.

    I told them to blog at the Seminal, let us know when they’re working on something, and, if they want to chat with the community about a burning issue, give us a holler and we’ll try to schedule some front page time. That’s a standing offer.

    After coming up for air from the health care battle, I can honestly say that there’s nothing more important than breaking the link between lobbyist money and campaigns — but campaign finance reform alone isn’t enough. Developing an alternative progressive financing apparatus is a must.

    In a year when even safe Democrats are facing serious challenges to their seats, the online community can provide support by virtue of our numbers that lobbyists can’t.

    Getting members of Congress to start thinking about the blogs in a different way by demonstrating to them all, right now, that we know how to help our friends is a really important step in turning things around.

    Visit the 2010 Fire Dogs Page to donate and volunteeer

    Previous Posts: Contest Announcement, Day 1 Totals, Day 2 Totals, Day 3 Totals, Day 4 Totals

    (Final totals after the jump)

    Representative Final Total Representative Final Total
    Kucinich, Dennis (OH-10) 24967 Eshoo, Anna (CA-14) 109
    Grayson, Alan (FL-08) 17296 Tsongas, Niki (MA-05) 109
    Weiner, Anthony (NY-09) 13160 Hastings, Alcee (FL-23) 106
    Frank, Barney (MA-04) 5217 Fudge, Marcia (OH-11) 104
    Lee, Barbara (CA-09) 2706 Harman, Jane (CA-36) 104
    Waters, Maxine (CA-35) 2701 Michaud, Michael (ME-02) 104
    Conyers, John (MI-14) 2639 Mitchell, Harry (AZ-05) 104
    Grijalva, Raul (AZ-07) 2592 Murtha, John (PA-12) 101
    Massa, Eric (NY-29) 2497 Moran, James (VA-08) 100
    Wasserman Schultz, Debbie (FL-20) 2450 Luj·n, Ben Ray (NM-03) 99
    Kaptur, Marcy (OH-09) 1809 Dicks, Norman (WA-06) 97
    Pelosi, Nancy (CA-08) 1732 Van Hollen, Chris (MD-08) 97
    DeFazio, Peter (OR-04) 1609 Carney, Christopher (PA-10) 96
    Doggett, Lloyd (TX-25) 1241 Murphy, Christopher (CT-05) 96
    Waxman, Henry (CA-30) 1170 Klein, Ron (FL-22) 95
    Ellison, Keith (MN-05) 1021 Davis, Susan (CA-53) 94
    Schrader, Kurt (OR-05) 923 Welch, Peter (VT-AL) 93
    Pingree, Chellie (ME-01) 893 Rodriguez, Ciro (TX-23) 92
    Woolsey, Lynn (CA-06) 876 Kagen, Steve (WI-08) 91
    McGovern, James (MA-03) 736 Berman, Howard (CA-28) 90
    Edwards, Donna (MD-04) 652 Arcuri, Michael (NY-24) 89
    Baldwin, Tammy (WI-02) 566 Halvorson, Deborah (IL-11) 89
    Kennedy, Patrick (RI-01) 514 Vel·zquez, Nydia (NY-12) 89
    McDermott, Jim (WA-07) 499 Stupak, Bart (MI-01) 88
    Capuano, Michael (MA-08) 448 Doyle, Michael (PA-14) 84
    Edwards, Chet (TX-17) 445 Driehaus, Steve (OH-01) 83
    Polis, Jared (CO-02) 445 Sherman, Brad (CA-27) 83
    Clyburn, James (SC-06) 441 Connolly, Gerald (VA-11) 82
    Shea-Porter, Carol (NH-01) 434 Courtney, Joe (CT-02) 80
    Hall, John (NY-19) 426 Sutton, Betty (OH-13) 80
    Tierney, John (MA-06) 381 Levin, Sander (MI-12) 79
    Hinchey, Maurice (NY-22) 379 Owens, Bill (NY-23) 79
    Filner, Bob (CA-51) 372 Napolitano, Grace (CA-38) 78
    Jackson-Lee, Sheila (TX-18) 369 Larsen, Rick (WA-02) 75
    Blumenauer, Earl (OR-03) 352 Titus, Dina (NV-03) 75
    Schakowsky, Janice (IL-09) 326 Berkley, Shelley (NV-01) 74
    Murphy, Patrick (PA-08) 320 Sarbanes, John (MD-03) 73
    Inslee, Jay (WA-01) 282 Bishop, Sanford (GA-02) 72
    Yarmuth, John (KY-03) 262 Carson, Andre (IN-07) 71
    Honda, Michael (CA-15) 257 Adler, John (NJ-03) 70
    Watson, Diane (CA-33) 255 Boswell, Leonard (IA-03) 67
    Holt, Rush (NJ-12) 248 Ellsworth, Brad (IN-08) 67
    Capps, Lois (CA-23) 243 Peters, Gary (MI-09) 67
    Garamendi, John (CA-10) 234 Price, David (NC-04) 67
    Jackson Jr., Jesse (IL-02) 234 Shuler, Heath (NC-11) 67
    Stark, Pete (CA-13) 234 Lofgren, Zoe (CA-16) 66
    Dingell, John (MI-15) 224 Olver, John (MA-01) 66
    Farr, Sam (CA-17) 222 Schwartz, Allyson (PA-13) 66
    Perriello, Thomas (VA-05) 219 McCollum, Betty (MN-04) 64
    Markey, Betsy (CO-04) 217 Hill, Baron (IN-09) 63
    DeGette, Diana (CO-01) 216 Kratovil, Frank (MD-01) 63
    Giffords, Gabrielle (AZ-08) 210 Oberstar, James (MN-08) 63
    Kilroy, Mary Jo (OH-15) 210 Spratt, John (SC-05) 63
    Hare, Phil (IL-17) 208 Moore, Gwen (WI-04) 62
    Nadler, Jerrold (NY-08) 206 Miller, Brad (NC-13) 61
    McNerney, Jerry (CA-11) 200 Johnson, Eddie Bernice (TX-30) 60
    Castor, Kathy (FL-11) 197 Loebsack, David (IA-02) 59
    Ackerman, Gary (NY-05) 186 Teague, Harry (NM-02) 57
    Brown, Corrine (FL-03) 186 Smith, Adam (WA-09) 56
    Obey, David (WI-07) 175 Matsui, Doris (CA-05) 55
    Bright, Bobby (AL-02) 170 Rush, Bobby (IL-01) 55
    Delahunt, Bill (MA-10) 169 Clay, William Lacy (MO-01) 54
    Wu, David (OR-01) 165 Israel, Steve (NY-02) 54
    Salazar, John (CO-03) 161 Brady, Robert (PA-01) 53
    Kirkpatrick, Ann (AZ-01) 157 Etheridge, Bob (NC-02) 52
    Speier, Jackie (CA-12) 154 Scott, Bobby (VA-03) 51
    Cohen, Steve (TN-09) 149 Tonko, Paul (NY-21) 50
    Maloney, Carolyn (NY-14) 148 Himes, James (CT-04) 49
    Cummings, Elijah (MD-07) 146 Thompson, Mike (CA-01) 48
    Chu, Judy (CA-32) 141 Johnson, Henry (GA-04) 47
    Gutierrez, Luis (IL-04) 139 Lowey, Nita (NY-18) 46
    Bishop, Timothy (NY-01) 136 Andrews, Robert (NJ-01) 44
    Foster, Bill (IL-14) 132 Kind, Ron (WI-03) 44
    Skelton, Ike (MO-04) 132 Watt, Melvin (NC-12) 44
    Slaughter, Louise (NY-28) 131 Pascrell, Bill (NJ-08) 43
    Braley, Bruce (IA-01) 129 Schiff, Adam (CA-29) 43
    Fattah, Chaka (PA-02) 128 Quigley, Mike (IL-05) 40
    Markey, Edward (MA-07) 127 Larson, John (CT-01) 39
    Boucher, Rick (VA-09) 126 Peterson, Collin (MN-07) 36
    Schauer, Mark (MI-07) 124 Pomeroy, Earl (ND-AL) 35
    Becerra, Xavier (CA-31) 122 Rothman, Steven (NJ-09) 35
    Cleaver, Emanuel (MO-05) 120 Engel, Eliot (NY-17) 33
    Miller, George (CA-07) 119 Kildee, Dale (MI-05) 32
    Perlmutter, Ed (CO-07) 119 McIntyre, Mike (NC-07) 25
    Heinrich, Martin (NM-01) 117 Mollohan, Alan (WV-01) 25
    DeLauro, Rosa (CT-03) 115 Sires, Albio (NJ-13) 21
    Payne, Donald (NJ-10) 114 Langevin, James (RI-02) 20
    Carnahan, Russ (MO-03) 112 Roybal-Allard, Lucille (CA-34) 17
    Walz, Timothy (MN-01) 111
    Total 110610

    Visit the 2010 Fire Dogs Page to donate and volunteeer

  • Tea Partiers: Ron Paul – Bad; ConAgra and Bombing Iran – Good

    After I appeared on MSNBC talking about Sarah Palin’s appearance at the Nashville tea party convention, several libertarian friends pinged me to say they were unhappy with the exchange.

    I said that Sarah Palin’s hawkish message on Iran was oddly out of place in a group whose roots belong to the Ron Paul anti-interventionist libertarians, particularly as the anti-interventionist Rand Paul is looking strong in the Kentucky Senate race — and Palin just endorsed him.

    The woman I appeared with, who said she was representing the tea partiers, was quick to say that there were many who were NOT anti-interventionist, such as herself. My libertarian friends couldn’t figure out WTF she was doing on MSNBC representing the tea parties in the first place, and said it was embarrassing when the opposition did a better job stating their case than their purported advocate.

    But it underscores a rift within the tea parties between the anti-tax, pro-civil rights libertarians who started them, and the corporatist neocons who are now trying to swoop in and capitalize on all of the hype. I’ve now spoken with no small number of journalists reporting on the tea party phenomenon who don’t even seem to know that the first tea party in 2007 was held by Ron Paul supporters, and they actually dumped tea into Boston Harbor.

    Ron Paul appeared on Rachel Maddow last night to speak about the fact that he himself is being challenged for his House seat by those who claim to represent the tea party movement. Rachel asked him about his relationship to the tea parties, and he said:

    I think the message gets a little bit diluted when a lot of people come in and the Republican party wants to make sure that maybe there’s a Neocon type of influence.

    Alan Grayson worked closely with Ron Paul to pass Audit the Fed in the House, and we worked with the Campaign for Liberty to support them in that effort. Ron Paul was reluctant to denounce Sarah Palin’s endorsement of his son, and mostly tried to change the subject.

    But, this morning, Doug Bandow, a Senior Fellow at the Campaign for Liberty, has a piece denouncing the Daniel Pipes foolishness (echoed by Sarah Palin last weekend) which says Obama would help himself politically by bombing the bejesus out of Iran:

    There are no good solutions in Iran. The world will be a better place if Iran becomes democratic and abandons any nuclear weapons program. But initiating war likely would inhibit reform in Iraq while making the world a more dangerous place. The disastrous experience of Iraq should teach us many lessons, the most important of which is that war always should be a last resort. That standard is no where close to being met in Iran.

    Masaccio stopped by the Nashville tea party and said there was a promo booth set up by ConAgra. ConAgra. Agricultural subsidies are one of the biggest forms of corporate welfare around, and there’s a HUGE corporate push on to convince the tea party activists that they’re not. They are. Red State has endorsed Stephen Fincher for John Tanner’s seat, despite the fact that he’s taken over $300,000 in campaign contributions from families who have received over $80 million in farm subsidies. The mid-south arm of the organization did an impressive investigation into it and called him out for it (below the jump). In it, they cite the work of the progressive environmental organization EWG.

    I have a lot of respect for the libertarians like Bruce Fein and Ron Paul who took a lot of shit during the Bush years for opposing FISA, domestic spying, warrentless wiretapping, the wars and the bank bailout. It was a principled thing to do and it wasn’t easy.

    Ron Paul was denied the ability to speak at the Republican convention in St. Paul, and held his own convention across town. Glenn Greenwald and I were there. While we disagree with the libertarians about more things than we probably agree on, it’s an honest disagreement about the role of government. The GOP establishment, on the other hand, struck a bargain for power with corporate America that is totally at odds with everything the libertarians stand for. I’ve often thought they have more points of honest intersection with progressives on the war, civil liberties, accountability and transparency than with the GOP and the “For Sale” sign they’ve affixed to the taxpayer trough.

    Ron Paul has been tireless in taking his message to college campuses, and he has tremendous support among younger people who identify themselves as fiscal conservatives but are uncomfortable with the fundies and their gay-bashing. But as the libertarian message is gaining traction, it is being hijacked by the Neocons — and Sarah “bridge to nowhere” Palin leads the parade.

    It’s completely incoherent that there are now tea party-identified candidates that are trying to oust Ron Paul himself from his seat. I hope the libertarians lay down markers and come down on the side of ending ConAgra’s corporate welfare, and showing Palin and her many bombs to the door.

    Press release by Mid South TEA Party on Stephen Fincher:

    The Mid South TEA Party For immediate release: 12/14/09
    Contact: [email protected]
    Phone: 901-827-0120

    Is a Congressional Campaign Being Funded With Your Tax Dollars?

    Earlier this year Stephen Fincher, a Republican candidate vying for John Tanner’s seat in the
    eighth Congressional District, caused quite a stir by raising over $300,000 in campaign
    contributions in just a few weeks. Mr. Fincher’s apparent ability to raise funds of this magnitude
    has caught the eye of GOP leaders across the district and of the RNCC. He has also been
    endorsed by the popular national blog site known as RedState.

    With the money in the bank and an “R” behind his name, Fincher seems to have become the
    front-runner on the Republican side of this race. More importantly, he is being viewed by some
    as the top choice for conservatives in the district. He confirms this notion on his website by
    making a vague claim to be the candidate that will “stop the runaway spending in Washington
    that is bankrupting America…”

    However, a closer look at the source of his campaign funding reveals that Mr. Fincher, along
    with his supporters, might be part of the problem rather than a possible solution. Over 90 percent
    of Fincher’s campaign funding came from farming families that have been recipients to almost
    $80,000,000 in federal farm subsidies. These subsidies are a complicated web of taxpayer-
    funded entitlements that tend to benefit large farming operations, and processing facilities. The
    Fincher family has been the recipient of nearly $6,000,000 of these funds.

    The Fincher Family raked in more than $800,000 worth of this corporate welfare during 2007
    alone.

    In a press release sent out in April 2008, Ken Cook, president of Environmental Working Group
    (EWG), described the problem with the farm subsidy programs:

    “Though net farm income reached a record level of $88.7 billion in 2007, propelled by
    high market prices for major crops, Washington still sent out over $5 billion of taxpayers’
    money in ‘direct payment’ farm subsidies to over 1.4 million recipients… Over 60 percent
    of the subsidy was pocketed by just 10 percent of the recipients-the largest and generally
    wealthiest subsidized farming operations in the country.”

    In West Tennessee, the concentration of subsidy wealth is even more alarming. The EWG
    reports a stunning 85 percent of all subsidies distributed to the eighth Congressional District
    were collected by just 10 percent of subsidy recipients. Moreover, while just 18 percent of
    farmers and/or ranchers statewide collect millions in these entitlements each year, 59 percent of
    those farmers reside in West Tennessee. This concentration may in part be due to the vast
    amount of farmland in West Tennessee. However, based on Fincher’s campaign contribution list,
    with many supporting families making maximum donations of $9,600, it appears that these
    particular farmers and their families are hardly suffering.

    According to the EWG, farm income exceeded $84,000 per household on average in 2007,
    compared to an average income for all U.S. households of $50,233. Yet, in 2008, the current
    Representative, John Tanner (D), voted not once, but twice, in favor of a farm bill that would
    raise the limit on farm subsidies to 150 percent of the previous limit. This would send even
    more taxpayer money to those already significantly more financially well off than the average
    American. Considering the fact that 90 percent of Mr. Fincher’s donors, including his own
    family, are benefiting from this type legislation, it would be reasonable to assume that Mr.
    Fincher would find himself beholding to such subsidy recipients who have donated to his
    campaign. Following the money makes suspect Mr. Fincher’s claim that he would be able to
    represent the 8th District in a fiscally conservative manner once elected.
    Here is the breakdown of the amount donated and the amount of subsidies received:

    Farm Families Amount Contributed Amount of Federal Subsidies

    Anderson $10,600.00 $1,488,122.00
    Arnold $14,400.00 $485,262.00
    Barnett $6,800.00 $1,068,799.00
    Bates $9,600.00 $873,556.00
    Beaird $5,000.00 $5,023,188.00
    Castleman $2,500.00 $887,632.00
    Couch $11,350.00 $6,079,981.00
    Crews $9,600.00 $380,146.00
    Driver $9,600.00 $80,567.00
    Eason $4,000.00 $138,143.00
    East $2,000.00 $2,262,204.00
    Edwards $9,600.00 $1,044,287.00
    Espey $14,400.00 $1,318,197.00
    Fincher $21,600.00 $5,845,110.00
    Greene $4,800.00 $1,251,036.00
    Hargett $9,600.00 $3,346,541.00
    Hollingshead $1,000.00 $419,787.00
    Hughes $26,000.00 $6,089,687.00
    Hurt $14,400.00 $151,751.00
    Hutchison $4,800.00 $830,747.00
    Johnson $1,250.00 $288,464.00
    Jordan $24,600.00 $7,870,212.00
    Kelley $5,000.00 $14,062,146.00
    Luckey $3,000.00 $3,987,860.00
    Murphy $2,500.00 $666,104.00
    Nunn $13,600.00 $639,793.00
    Pearson $8,000.00 $3,216,379.00
    Riley $9,600.00 $1,515,037.00
    Simmons $13,200.00 $370,030.00
    Taylor $2,000.00 $3,930,878.00
    Turnage $1,500.00 $926,338.00
    Totals: $275,900.00 $76,537,984.00