Author: Jay Yarow

Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos unloaded 2.3 million shares of Amazon stock between February 16 and 17, worth a total of $235 million, according to an SEC Filing.

There’s no explanation in the filing about why Jeff decided to sell his shares, nor is there on Amazon’s site.

Eric Engleman at TechFlash speculates that Jeff has been more interested in his space project Blue Origin, so that might be where the money is going.

Jeff still owns 92,158,027 shares of the company.

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See Also:

• Obama Wants Bezos, Branson And Musk To Put People In Space – Not NASA
• Jeff Bezos: The Nook’s Book Lending Feature Is A Joke
• 9 Charts That Show Why Amazon Investors Have Nothing To Worry About

Three Tesla employees have died in a plane crash in East Palo Alto, VentureBeat reports.

Previously, Jalopnik said it was three executives.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, former co-founder of Paypal, was not on the plane, according to the company.

In a statement he said, "Three Tesla employees were on board a plane that crashed in East Palo Alto early this morning. We are withholding their identities as we work with the relevant authorities to notify the families. Our thoughts and prayers are with them. Tesla is a small, tightly-knit company, and this is a tragic day for us."

We've heard JB Straubel, Telsa's CTO, was not on the plane.

According to the SF Gate, the plane was owned by Doug Bourn, an electrical engineer for the electric car startup. It's unclear if he was flying the plane or on the plane at all.

Tesla makes the Roadster, an all-electric sports car, and recently filed for an IPO.

Update: VentureBeat says the employees that died were Doug Bourn, Andrew Ingram and senior manager Brian Finn.

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See Also:

• Tesla Files For $100 Million IPO
• Tesla Takes Manhattan!
• Tesla Settles Lawsuit--Everyone Is A Founder

Amazon’s share of the digital book market will slip from 90% today to 35% by 2015, according to a report from Spencer Wang at Credit Suisse. Spencer thinks Apple, Google and Amazon eventually end up splitting the e-book market.

But while Spencer believes this reality has spooked Amazon investors, he himself doesn’t see this market share adjustment causing a great deal of long term pain for Amazon.

Amazon controls approximately 22% of total book sales (19% print, 90% digital). Even as its e-book marketshare slips, its physical book sales will grow, and Spencer projects Amazon will eventually control 33% of all book sales.

Spencer calculates the company’s compounded annual growth rate in the North American book market will be 7.5%.

Nevertheless, Amazon’s stock price has fallen since early December and Spencer thinks some of the pressure on the stock is coming from investors worried about Amazon’s ability to compete with Apple during a transition from physical books to digital.

To answer these concerns, Spencer put together a few charts to show why Amazon investors have nothing to worry about →

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See Also:

• Amazon Wants To Give A Free Kindle To All Amazon Prime Subscribers
• How To Lose 50% Of Your Money In 15 Minutes Betting On Amazon
• Steve Jobs Says Book Publishers Hate Amazon’s Kindle

Gamefly, a mail-in video game rental service — think Netflix for videogames — has filed for a $50 million IPO.

Here’s the details:

• Gamefly has 334,000 subscribers.
• It has sales of $46.4 million for the six months ended September 30, up from $38.4 million the year prior.
• Net income in the same period was $3 million, down from $5.4 million the year prior.
• Operating income was $6 million versus $2.5 million the year before.
• For fiscal year ended March 31, 2009, Gamefly generated $84.7 million in revenue.
• Gamefly also operates a network of video game sites that draws 4.4 million uniques, most of whom are not subscribers.
• Gamefly has penetrated a tiny portion of the video game market (~1%), so it sees room for growth.
• Subscriptions to Gamefly start at $15.95 per month.
• Money raised from the IPO will go towards towards general corporate purposes.
• David Hodess, CEO and President of Gamefly, was paid $390,911 in total compensation for 2009.
• Underwriters are Piper Jaffray, Bank of America-Merrill, Cowen and Company, William Blair & Company.

See Also: 15 Companies Ready To IPO Today

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See Also:

• Crashing Markets Delay FriendFinder’s Porn IPO
• Tesla Files For $100 Million IPO
• JOKE OF THE WEEK: Money Pit Vringo Has $36,000 In Revenue And Massive Losses But It’s Filing For An IPO

News Corp. just smashed the Street’s expectations delivering big beats on both the top and bottom line.

• The company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.25, versus $0.20 expected for the December quarter.

• Revenue was $8.7 billion versus an expected $8.23 billion.

• Operating income was $1.2 billion blowing away the expected $981 million.

• The company is raising the dividend by 25% to $0.075 per Class A share and Class B share.

Shares are up after hours.

MySpace no longer gets broken out, it’s stuffed in with “other.” In that section, we learn that the digital media portion of the company saw operating income decrease by $32 million compared to a year prior “due to lower search and advertising revenue.”

The Wall Street Journal saw advertising increases. The print edition had 5% higher year-over-year advertising revenue, and there was 17% year-over-year growth in advertising at The Wall Street Journal Digital Network

The newspaper division as a whole had a solid showing with $259 million in operating income.

Here’s a preview of the quarter from Imran Khan of JP Morgan, with our notes in brackets on how News Corp. performed:

• We expect Cable Network’s Programming (key to our OW thesis) operating income growth of 19%. We are modeling $509M in operating income in Q2 FY10. [It was $604 million, a 35% growth.]
• Improving advertising trends at the Television segment. We expect $9M in operating income and believe the segment profitability may have room for upside: Television delivered $1.1B in operating income in FY08 while we are modeling $160M for this fiscal year. We also note that this segment will benefit from the growth in retransmission revenue and we will look for management to comment on the expected timing of re-negotiations. [Television segment was $29 million in operating income.]
• Film is likely to be strong, we expect $321M in operating income; [Filmed entertainment had $324 million in operating income.]
• Newspapers should report $197M in operating income. [Newspapers had $259 million, “driven by increased advertising revenues at The Wall Street Journal and lower operating expenses throughout all the newspaper businesses.”]
• We expect Sky Italia to remain challenging. We expect Sky Italia to report operating loss of $25M. Despite challenging regulatory and competitive environment we still think it will generate $250M in operating income this year. [Operating loss was $30 million.]
• Guidance will be key for stock performance; we expect the company to revise the guidance upwards from the current range of high single to low double digit operating income growth to reflect Avatar performance levels and improving macro environment.

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See Also:

• News Corp. ‘Couldn’t Work Out A Deal’ With NYT to Print Wall Street Journal
• News Corp. Shakes Up Top Fox Executives
• Avatar Is So Good, You Shouldn’t Short News Corp. Stock

Carol Bartz has two 20-day challenges at Yahoo, writes Gene Munster in a note for clients looking at Carol’s compensation.

If she can get the stock to trade for an average price of $17.60 for 20 trading days, 1.67 million, or 33% of her options, vest at an exercise price of $11.73.

That’s about a $10 million prize.

The rest of her options vest when the stock stays at $20.53 for 20 days.

She’s got a ways to go before she hits that target. Under her watch Yahoo’s stock has only traded above $17 a handful of days.

Carol’s tenure has brought us plenty of bluster, but little more than boring results.

The good news here is Carol’s not incentivized to do anything to produce a quick pop in the stock price. Her payday comes when company delivers some consistent returns.

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See Also:

• Yahoo: Out Of Search, Into Retail
• Yahoo Going After Yelp? Carol Bartz Is Looking To Make Acquisitions
• Yahoo Q4 Earnings — Another Big Yawn

Macmillan’s victory over Amazon in the big e-book pricing battle, nicked Amazon’s reputation, but will have no impact on its business.

In a note for clients, Imran Khan of JP Morgan writes, today’s Amazon “selloff is unwarranted.” (The stock is down 7%.)

Khan sees no material EPS impact from the raising of e-book pricing. At the expense of some sales volume, Amazon generates better profitability on each e-book.

Here’s the three key points from Khan’s report:

• Bestsellers not a big moneymaker. Historically, Amazon has made the majority of its money on the long tail of the catalog, rather than on bestsellers. E.g., the company sold books such as Harry Potter more or less at cost, or with minimal margin. Similarly, we do not think the eBook pricing model was aimed at profiting from bestsellers, but at driving volume with bestsellers and profitability with the rest of the catalog.
• We view it as more of a philosophical difference. Digital books have several advantages for retailers: no 30% return rate, no printing costs — and as such, we expect the publishers to accede to lower prices over time. As this weekend’s events demonstrate, the road may hit a few bumps. Additionally, note that arguments between distributors and content owners are hardly a new thing.
• Over time, long tail remains a big opportunity. We think digitalization will reduce barriers for long-tail authors to make their content available to consumers. We think Amazon, with the benefit of its recommendation engine, will be able to match the right content with the right users. We think monetization and profitability will be better for Amazon on such content.

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See Also:

• Amazon Caves, Will Raise eBook Prices For Macmillan
• Book Wars: Amazon Retaliates Against Publisher Over eBook Pricing, Pulls Books From Shelves
• Hey, John Sargent, CEO of Macmillan Books, Screw You!

Elon Musk only accepts a dollar a year as a salary to run Tesla, but the company takes care of him in other ways.

In Tesla’s s1 filing, since the second quarter 2009, Tesla has paid $175,000 to cover the cost of Musk’s private plane travel for business. 

This isn’t too bad when you put in perspective. Vringo, a video ringtone company, filed for an IPO last week. We called it the “joke of the week.”

Vringo has $36,000 in revenue, but its CEO paid himself $224,244 last year.

That’s more than Elon Musk spent on his private jet. And Musk was flying around the world to get funding.

See Also:  Tesla’s IPO: A Big Bet On The Model S 

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See Also:

• Tesla Files For $100 Million IPO
• Tesla Takes Manhattan!
• Tesla Gets 313 Miles On A Single Charge!

Elon Musk is inching closer to realizing his dream.

His electric car company, Tesla, has filed for a $100 million IPO.

The company is reporting sales for the first three quarters of 2009 of $93.4 million.

Over the same period its net loss was $31.5 million, an improvement from the $57.3 million loss it had over the same period in 2008.

The entire future of Tesla rides on the Model S, its sedan which is slated for production in 2012. It probably won't be on the road till 2013.

In 2011, according to the filing, the company will stop making the Roadster. That leaves a two year gap where Tesla will not be making any cars.

From the s1: "We may generate limited, if any, revenue from selling electric vehicles after 2011 until the launch of the planned Model S."

If the production of the Model S hits bumps, which is possible according to the filing, then Tesla could go longer with out making any cars.

Maybe it's all for the best. The filing indicates it's not making money on the $109,000 Roadster. It appears all the profit comes from selling Zero Emission Vehicle credits.

Its gross profit for 2009 was $7.8 million. It sold $7.7 million worth of credits, which means only $100,000 in gross profit came from auto sales.

Other bits:

• As of December 31, 2009 Tesla sold 937 Roadsters in 18 countries.
• Gross profit was $7.8 million and a gross margin of 8.3% for the first three quarters of 2009.
• Since inception through September 30, 2009, Tesla generated $108.2 million in revenue.
• Over its lifespan, Tesla accumulated a deficit of $236.4 million.
• The company plans capital expenditures of $100-$125 million for 2010.
• The company will be setting aside 50% of the IPO proceeds for a DOE loan facility.
• Elon Musk only pays himself a dollar a year.
• The underwriters are JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

See Also: Tesla Takes Manhattan!

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See Also:

• Tesla Prepping Its IPO
• Tesla Takes Manhattan!
• Tesla Gets An $82.5 Million Investment

Two months from now, when your stockbroker calls to get you in on a “hot new IPO called Vringo,” throw down the phone and run away screaming.

A “video ringtone company” with no profits and just $36,000 in revenue, Vringo just filed for an IPO.  This, hands down, is the joke of the week.

Since its founding four years ago, Vringo has raised $17.5 million…and spent $18.04 million. 

And what does it have to show for this monstrous incineration of shareholder capital?

$36,000 of 2009 revenue.

That’s thousands, not millions.  (True, it’s only the first three quarters of the year.  So if the company booked a good Q4, it might crack $50k for the year).  

Meanwhile, Vringo burned $4 million, or about $500,000 a month.

So why on earth is it trying to go public?  (Emphasis on trying.  There’s almost no chance this thing will get out.  Who would be dumb enough to buy it?)  

It’s trying to go public, presumably, because its existing investors are tired of pouring millions of dollars down a rat hole.  Vringo just received a $3 million bridge loan, presumably to carry it through to the IPO.  After which, its existing investors will be the ones running away screaming.

Private equity group Warburg Pincus owns 31% of the company.  Some astute folks work at Warburg, so we suspect the investment hasn’t quite worked out the way they planned.

Vringo doesn’t have a business right now (ergo, $36,000 of revenue), but it plans to have one eventually–by charging a monthly fee to users to access its video ringtone service. It will also charge for premium content. It allows users to make and download video ringtones. 

In other words, Vringo doesn’t do anything right now except burn money.  But it might do something in the future.

Here are the gruesome specifics from the S1.

By the way, you might reasonably ask, who’s underwriting this disaster?

ANSWER: The Maxim Group.

Ever heard of them?

We have.

How?

Because they’re the ones who tried to underwrite the last candidate for worst IPO ever: A New Jersey-based “search engine” called “Accoona.”

When Accoona filed its IPO prospectus, back in 2007, we had a similar reaction (See: “Accoona Files $81 Million IPO: Run Away Screaming“). 

A couple of months later, thankfully, underwriter Maxim thought better of the idea and pulled the prospectus.  Then Accoona slunk away and died. 

We expect Vringo to go the same route.

See Also: 15 Hot Tech Companies Ready For An IPO

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See Also:

• Bad Sign For Internet IPO Market: QuinStreet Forced To Cut Size Of IPO
• The Russians Say No To Facebook IPO
• 15 Hot Tech Companies Ready For An IPO

After delivering solid earnings, and better than expected guidance, Netflix’s stock has taken off, rising 22% today.

The positive results forced bearish analysts like Barton Crockett of Lazard to retreat.

Two weeks before earnings came out Barton downgraded the company to a sell. He didn’t think Netflix could maintain its growth. He thought subscriptions would come in on the low end.

He was wrong. Subscriptions came in higher than expected.

He’s revised his thinking on the company, and is upgrading it to hold. Here are the three key points from his note this morning:

• Churn drop drives new stance; upgrading to HOLD from SELL. After rising all year, a 4Q09 plunge in churn drove subscriber growth to the high end of management’s guidance, versus our expectation for the low end. This, plus guidance for more churn improvement in 2010, argues that the streaming feature is improving sub loyalty, something not at all evident in earnings reports to date, prompting us to up estimates and our rating.
• comScore correlation variance widest ever, but churn/free trials drove upside. Reported gross adds of 2.803 million were 165,000 above our 2.638M estimate, and 21% above the level predicted in the comScore correlation, the widest variance ever for data going back to mid 2005. However, net sub growth of 1.159M to exit at 12.268M was 268K above our estimate to exit at 12.0M. The delta between the gross add and net add variance was a surprising drop in churn to 3.9%, down 30 basis points y/y, after rising 20 to 30 basis points all year. Churn fell 50 basis points q/q, the biggest drop ever. Free trial subs were 3.1% of the total, vs. 2.4% last year. Had churn and free trial subs remained constant y/y (our assumption), subs would have exited at 12.14M, the lower half, which had been our call.
• Guidance for more churn drops prompts rating change. Switching gears from the previous stance, management guided for more churn drops this year. This suggests that the 4Q09 churn upside was more than a late quarter push for free trials, which some skeptics argued to us. So we’re upping 2010E EPS to $2.53 from $2.06, and 2010 sub growth to nearly 4M from 2.5M. We have a HOLD rating, based on valuation, assuming an after-hours price of $59.80 for a P/E near 24 and a PEG near 1x. Online streaming subscription competition is likely heating up over time, but Netflix is playing in a largely open field at the moment.

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See Also:

• Netflix Downgraded To SELL
• Netflix Q4 Fine, Guidance Strong
• Netflix: Half Of Subscribers Stream Movies Online

In the press release announcing Apple's earnings, Steve Jobs acknowledged the possibility of an Apple tablet for the first time.

He said, "The new products we are planning to release this year are very strong, starting this week with a major new product that we're really excited about."

While millions of words have been written about the tablet, to this point Apple has not officially hinted at it.

The tablet should be unveiled this Wednesday.

See Also: Tablet Computing: A History Of Failure

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See Also:

• Apple's iPhone Sales Fall Short Of Expectations
• Apple Mac Sales Soar, iPhone Misses
• Tablet Computing: A History Of Failure

eBay (EBAY) just beat the street, turning in $0.44 EPS versus an estimate of $0.40.

Revenue was $2.4 billion, also beating Street estimates of $2.29 billion. 

Full year revenue for 2009 was $8.7 billion in revenue, which beats expectations of $8.65 billion.

The company attributed the solid quarter to “excellent growth in PayPal and StubHub” as well as growth in the core eBay business.

Guidance on EPS for the next quarter is $0.39 – $0.41, which is in line with analyst expectations.

Full year guidance is just above expectations. eBay says it will deliver $1.63 – $1.68 EPS, compared to expectations of $1.60.

The stock is trading up slightly after hours.

Here’s some highlights from Imran Khan at JP Morgan:

• Non-vehicles US GMV up 4% Y/Y. Our incoming model called for a 3% increase, as we believe eCommerce trends solidified during the holiday shopping season.
• Non-vehicles Int’l GMV up 40%. Our forecast, was for a 26% Y/Y improvement, aided by FX. On an FX-neutral basis and excluding the impact of the GMarket acquisition, Int’l non-vehicles GMV was up 11% (compared to 10% growth ex-FX and ex-GMKT in 3Q).
• Marketplace take rate at 7.47%. Our forecast was for a 7.85% take rate, compared to 7.67% in the year-ago quarter and 7.90% in 3Q. Regional mix shift and seller discounting can contribute to take rate declines.
• PayPal TPV up 34% Y/Y. We had modeled a 20% Y/Y improvement. On-eBay TPV was 65.9% of addressable GMV, a slight improvement from 65.7% in 2Q. Merchant Services TPV was up a strong 50% Y/Y (or 47% ex FX).
• PayPal take rate at 3.54%. We had modeled 3.75%, and 3Q saw the take rate at 3.67%. We worry about the impact of take rate declines on PayPal’s ability to monetize the rapid growth in TPV. PayPal revenue margin was 62%, in line with last quarter.

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See Also:

• Amazon Is Still Eating eBay’s Lunch
• AOL Looked At eBay And Electronic Arts Before Time Warner
• eBay Improving Its Top-Rated Sellers Program

Google’s battle with China could sting its Android partner Motorola, says Morgan Stanley analyst Ehub Gelblum in a note this morning.

Android-based Motorola phones were expected to launch in China in the first quarter of this year. But yesterday, Google said it was going to delay plans to launch mobile phones in China as it negotiates with the government over search engine censorship and whether it can continue operating in the country.

As a result, Ehub is lowering his estimates of Motorola Android handsets shipped in the first quarter by 500,000 to 1.5 million, which is flat with Q4.

The reduction in handset sales could cost the company $162 million in revenue, assuming an average selling price of $324 for the handsets.

Revenue for the first quarter falls to $5.31 billion from the previous estimate of $5.47 billion and EPS falls to $0.02 from $0.03.

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See Also:

• Motorola Betting Big On Google’s Android To Take On Apple, Rivals
• Google Already Seeking China Compromise
• Google Delays The Launch Of Mobile Phones In China

The market for initial public offerings has been dead for the last few years, but 2010 should be different.

There’s a slew of hot startups — from Facebook to TeleNav to ReachLocal — with big, rapidly growing businesses that are ready to test the public waters.

Take a look at 15 companies ready for IPOs →

What has held companies back until now?

Three things, says Chris Dixon, the angel investor, entrepenuer, and blogger:

• Sarbanes Oxley red tape adds millions of dollars in overhead for companies looking to go public.

• New cash from investors like DST for Facebook have eased the need to raise funds from the public market.

• The public got scorched by tech IPOs early this decade and that memory hasn’t quite been erased.

One big tech IPO could make a big difference, though. Investors get greedy just as fast as they crawl into the fetal position, and a successful IPO from Facebook or another hot company could open the spigots.  And there are plenty of companies ready and raring to go.

When should a company go public? When the market is there, and the company is ready.

How can a company tell if it’s ready? Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures gives us one take:

• Revenues greater than $100 million
• EBTIDA greater than $10 million
• Growing both faster than 25% per year
• You are *absolutely sure* you can make your numbers for at least three years out

If you can’t hit those targets, then “don’t do it,” says Fred.

Here’s 15 hot tech companies ready to IPO →

Here’s each company:

• Facebook
• Zynga
• LinkedIn
• Solyndra
• GoDaddy
• Gilt Groupe
• FriendFinder
• Demand Media
• MagicJack
• TheLadders
• Quin Street
• ReachLocal
• TeleNav
• NewEgg
• Tesla

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• 15 Things You Can Remote Control With Your iPhone
• Looking For Work? Here Is How Much Tech’s Top Companies Pay
• 10 Tech Deals That Will Reshape The Industry In 2010

Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett slapped a “sell” on Netflix today, with a $41 price target, saying he thinks the company’s stock hit “a peak.”

Looking at comScore data, Crockett thinks Netflix’s subscriber growth will be at the low end of guidance for Q4.

He also thinks Netflix is going to have trouble maintaining growth, which will add pressure to the stock.

Here’s what he said in a note this morning to investors:

* Comments imply 4Q09 was within guidance range. Netflix chairman Reed Hastings made an appearance on CNBC just before the close to discuss the new Wii bundling deal. In response to a question from Maria Bartiromo, Hastings said “We’ve been really blessed with just incredible subscriber growth, 7 million to 9 million to 12 million — we keep on growing and it’s really driven by this phenomenal value.” While this was not guidance, it suggests that at worst Netflix hit the low end of its 12 million to 12.3 million subscriber guidance in 4Q09 or shortly thereafter. Netflix also set an earnings reporting date — Jan 27 — without warning, suggesting performance consistent with guidance.

* But comScore data argue for subs at the low end of guidance. However, ComScore website traffic data for December, released Wed. afternoon, argues for performance at the low end of sub guidance, which we believe would be a headwind for the shares. Because of this data, which is 88% correlated to sub gross adds, we are trimming 4Q09E net adds 200,000 to exit at 12.0 million subs.

* Console questions. Longer term, we are skeptical that online streaming via PS3, Wii, and DVD players, the company’s current focus, will drive sub growth that matches the lift in 2009 from the Xbox 360, because Xbox users are much more inclined to go online. So we expect an easing of recent torrid growth, and pressure on both the trading multiple and Street estimates.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Netflix Streaming Coming To The Wii This Spring
• Netflix Stabs Us In The Heart So Hollywood Can Drink Our Blood
• CHART OF THE DAY: Netflix Takes Off As Blockbuster Fades

Netflix (NFLX) option activity is jumping as scuttlebutt says the company could be a takeover target.

Earlier today, Reuters reporter Anupreeta Das tweeted “Netflix-Amazon rumor doing rounds of options market again.”

We also read on Fly On The Wall, the rumor mill/financial news aggregator, “Netflix calls active on renewed takeover chatter.”

The January $55 and $60 call options have had larger than normal trading volume. For the day, Netflix‘s stock is only up 0.98% to $54.49.

In July, Netflix’s stock had a 6.6% one day jump as rumors spread that Amazon (AMZN) would buy the company.

As we wrote then, it’s a feasible acquisition for Amazon. Amazon’s digital movie rentals offerings haven’t gained much traction, while Netflix is well positioned for the future of digital streaming and rentals.

Though, as a commenter points out, due to tax complications, it doesn’t really jibe. Probably just a rumor for now.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• CHART OF THE DAY: Netflix Takes Off As Blockbuster Fades
• Comcast Should Buy Netflix Instead Of NBC
• How Netflix Delivers Movies So Fast

Avatar will drive “incredible excitement” in the months to come, says Pali Research’s Rich Greenfield.

Because of that, Rich upgraded News Corp. from a sell to neutral in a note this morning.

Greenfield says the risk/reward of shorting News Corp. after seeing a screening of Avatar is not appealing.

He writes, “the honest truth is that nobody in the world has ever seen a movie like Avatar.”

While the movie probably won’t generate huge profits, it will not be a disaster, profit-wise, he says. Fox’s film slate overall is looking good.

Here’s Greenfield:

• Earnings estimates are going higher, even without outperformance in film. As shown in Exhibit A, our revised estimates now assume high-teens organic operating income growth in fiscal (June) 2010, well above management guidance of high-single to low-double digit growth, albeit largely discounted in the stock. In addition, we believe EPS will be $0.86 now, versus street consensus of $0.81 (our prior estimate was also above consensus at $0.82).
• Our short thesis had been premised on the lack of growth post-FY2010 (we are still expecting flat EPS in FY11, albeit off a higher base). However, with earnings heading higher, shorting for an FY11 earnings miss simply feels pointless.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• James Cameron’s "Avatar" Could Burn Through $500 Million
• Twitter Avatar-Gate Rolls Into Day Two
• Psych! James Cameron’s "Avatar" Not As Expensive As Originally Stated

The decade is littered with huge deals that could have changed the business world, but for whatever reason, never materialized.

Consider…

• What would have happened if Google bought Friendster?
• …if Verizon hadn't shunned Apple for the first iPhone?
• …if Comcast bought Disney for $54 billion instead of later buying NBC?

Of course, the king of all could've, should've during the decade was Yahoo.

Yahoo almost bought Google and Facebook. Then it spent all of 2008 rejecting an acquisition offer from  Microsoft.

After Yahoo, the decade's next biggest waffler was Viacom.

Viacom flirted with Facebook and MySpace, hoping either would recharge its flagging MTV brand on the web. It didn't happen. MySpace was bought by News Corp. who may have killed it by forcing the social network to focus on revenue not user experience.

Take a look at 15 big tech deals that fell apart this past decade →

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See Also:

• 15 Gadgets That Changed Everything This Decade
• 21 Things That Became Obsolete This Decade
• 15 Overhyped Products That Completely Flopped This Decade