Author: Laura Hazard Owen

Researchers at Microsoft and the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology are creating software that analyzes 22 years of New York Times archives, Wikipedia and about 90 other web resources to predict future disease outbreaks, riots and deaths — and hopefully prevent them.

The new research is the latest in a number of similar initiatives that seek to mine web data to predict all kinds of events. Recorded Future, for instance, analyzes news, blogs and social media to “help identify predictive signals” for a variety of industries, including financial services and defense. Researchers are also using Twitter and Google to track flu outbreaks.

from “Mining the Web to Predict Future Events,” Horvitz and Radinsky, http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/horvitz/future_news_wsdm.pdf

Eric Horvitz of Microsoft Research and Kira Radinsky of the Technion-Israel Institute describe their work in a newly released paper, “Mining the Web to Predict Future Events” (PDF). For example, they examined the way that news about natural disasters like storms and droughts could be used to predict cholera outbreaks in Angola. Following those weather events, “alerts about a downstream risk of cholera could have been issued nearly a year in advance,” they write.

Horvitz and Radinsky acknowledge that epidemiologists look at some of the same relationships, but “such studies are typically few in number, employ heuristic assessments, and are frequently retrospective analyses, rather than aimed at generating predictions for guiding near-term action.” They outline the advantages that software has over humans in this area:

• Learning: Software “has the ability to learn patterns from large amounts of data, can monitor numerous information sources, can learn new probabilistic associations over time, and can continue to do real-time monitoring, prediction, and alerting on increases in the likelihoods of forthcoming concerning events.”
• Tireless researching: Software, with its “long tentacles into historical corpora and real-time feeds,” can dig up data that humans might never find because they’re too focused on “knowledge that is easily discovered in studies or available from experts.”
• Lack of bias: Software can assist “when inferences from data run counter to expert expectations,” or when “there is a significantly lower likelihood of an event than expected by experts based on the large set of observations and feeds being considered in an automated manner.”
• Greater access to news: “A system monitoring likelihoods of concerning future events typically will have faster and more comprehensive access to news stories that may seem less important on the surface (e.g., a story about a funeral published in a local newspaper that does not reach the main headlines), but that might provide valuable evidence in the evolution of larger, more important stories (e.g., massive riots).”

One of the problems that the researchers faced in developing their software model is the fact that tragic events in poor African countries are often not widely reported. So they taught the software to generalize somewhat: “Instead of considering only ‘Rwanda cholera outbreak,’ an event with a small number of historical cases, we consider more general events of the form: “[Country in Africa] cholera outbreak.” We turn to world knowledge available on the Web…[that] maps Rwanda to the following concepts: Republics, African countries, Land- locked countries, Bantu countries, etc.”

Horvitz and Radinsky also taught the software what to ignore: It “was able to recognize that the drought experienced in New York City on March 1989, published in the NYT under the title: ‘Emergency is declared over drought’ would not be associated with a disease outbreak…The system estimates that, for droughts to cause cholera with high probability, the drought needs to happen in dense populations (such as the refugee camps in Angola and Bangladesh) located in underdeveloped countries that are proximal to bodies of water.”

“I truly view this as a foreshadowing of what’s to come,” Horvitz told the MIT Technology Review. “Eventually this kind of work will start to have an influence on how things go for people.” He said Microsoft isn’t commercializing the research yet, but that it will continue, and he wants to get more “data further back in time.”

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The Consumer Electronics Association, which runs CES, is ditching CBS’s tech news and reviews site CNET as its show partner. Earlier this month, CBS forced CNET to remove the Dish Hopper from consideration for its “Best in CES” awards, because CBS is currently suing Dish Network over technology used in the Hopper. Furthermore, the CEA gave Dish Hopper a “Best of Show” award. (It will have to share the honors with gaming tablet Razer Edge.)

The CEA supports Dish in the ongoing litigation with CBS, and in a press release it decried CBS’s policy of forbidding coverage of companies it’s in litigation with. ”We are concerned the new review policy will have a negative impact on our brand should we continue the awards relationship as currently constructed,” Karen Chupka, SVP of CEA’s events and conferences, said in a statement. “We look forward to receiving new ideas to recognize the ‘best of the best’ products introduced at the International CES.” Meanwhile, Gary Shapiro, CEA president and CEO, said, “We are shocked that the ‘Tiffany’ network, which is known for its high journalistic standards would bar all its reporters from favorably describing classes of technology the network does not like.”

A CBS spokesperson told The Verge that the network had already decided it wouldn’t partner with CES again.

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About a month after it revealed its first six comedy pilots, Amazon Studios announced Tuesday that it’s approved five pilots for children’s shows. Some big names are attached: Angela Santomero, the creator of Super Why! and Blue’s Clues, is behind one of the pilots, while the Jim Henson Company is producing another.

The kids’ pilots, along with the six comedy pilots, will be posted on Amazon Instant Video, Prime Instant Video, Lovefilm UK and Lovefilm Germany, where customers can watch them for free and help determine which go into production.

It’s all part of Amazon’s initiative to remove the middleman from streaming TV. The shows’ creators get $10,000 when their show is optioned and $55,000 if it’s chosen for production, as well as a share of licensing fees and other royalties. Amazon says it’s now optioned a total of 25 projects, and it’s looking for more children’s and comedy shows.

Here are the first five children’s pilots:

Creative Galaxy

Creative Galaxy is an animated interactive art adventure series, designed to inspire kids’ creative thinking through crafts, story, music and dance. The series was created by Angela Santomero, creator of Super Why!, the Emmy-nominated literacy series, Blue’s Clues and Daniel Tiger’s Neighborhood.

Oz Adventures

In this innovative problem solving series, Dot, Dorothy’s daughter, goes off to Oz everyday with the children of the beloved characters from L. Frank Baum’s classic book, The Wizard of Oz. In each episode, the yellow brick road leads Dot to a new magical location where she solves problems alongside her Oz friends.

Teeny Tiny Dogs

Produced by The Jim Henson Company (Sid the Science Kid, Dinosaur Train) and created by Howard Baker (Rugrats), Teeny Tiny Dogs follows Butch, Butterfly, Dinky and Polly as they help one another navigate the big world despite their teeny, tiny, small size. This series promotes happiness through friendship, learning, growing and developing a strong sense of self as seen through the eyes of canine friends.

Tumbleaf

Tumbleaf was created by Drew Hodges and Bix Pix Studios, an award-winning stop motion studio. The series, aimed at preschoolers, is set in a whimsical land where a small blue fox named Fig plays each day and discovers adventure, friendship and love around every bend in the path. Children will be enriched by narratives that promote play through exploration and cognitive reasoning.

The Untitled J.J. Johnson Project

The Untitled J.J. Johnson Project revolves around Anne, a young scientist, who creates three robot helpers to assist her scientific experiments in the back of her dad’s junkyard. This science-based series from creator J.J. Johnson (Dino Dan, This is Emily Yeung) aims to introduce kids to science and technology in a fun, new way.

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YouTube plans to launch paid subscriptions as early as this spring, according to unidentified sources cited in AdAge. The sources say that YouTube is asking media companies that have already gained large a YouTube following — like Machinima, Maker Studios and Fullscreen — to submit ideas for paid channels that would cost “somewhere between $1 and $5 a month.” A Google spokesperson confirmed to AdAge that YouTube is “looking at” subscriptions.

YouTube would initially launch around 25 paid channels, according to the report, and “is also considering charging for content libraries and access to live events, a la pay-per-view, as well as self-help or financial advice shows.” It’s unclear if the channels would cost $1 to $5 apiece or would be lumped together as an inexpensive bundle.

YouTube’s paid offerings might help the site compete against streaming services like Netflix, Hulu Plus and Amazon Instant Video, all of which are developing their own original content. But the subscriptions would also give content creators with large audiences a chance to pull in revenue beyond ads. And the opportunity to charge might provide brands that were previously wary to put video up on YouTube with the incentive to do so.

Will viewers pay? They might if transactions are easy — Google could integrate Google Payments, for instance — and might also be interested in perks like downloads for offline viewing, or bundles of videos that previously had to be tracked down individually.

Barnes & Noble plans to close about twenty retail stores a year over the next ten years, the company’s retail CEO Marshall Klipper told the Wall Street Journal. Today, there are 689 Barnes & Noble stores nationwide, plus 674 college stores.

The WSJ notes that “the chain shut an average of about 15 stores a year in the past decade, but until 2009 it also was opening 30 or more a year,” with a peak of 726 stores in 2008. Klipper may have chosen to talk to the WSJ to show investors that the company has a plan. He said that fewer than 20 of the chain’s retail stores are unprofitable, and “we’re going to be around a long time” because consumers read both print and ebooks (this is a point that the company has been pressing for awhile, based on its own research).

Barnes & Noble is threatened by the shift to online book shopping at Amazon. The company has rolled out a host of Nook e-readers and tablets that face stiff competition in a market dominated by Kindle e-readers and saturated with cheap tablets from Amazon, Google, Apple and others. Barnes & Noble just delivered a terrible holiday earnings report, showing Nook, BN.com and retail sales all down, with a particularly large decline in Nook device sales. The company plans to spin off the Nook and college stores into a separate unit called Nook Media, with Microsoft and Pearson both holding stakes.

When Borders, then the nation’s second-largest bookstore chain, went bankrupt and liquidated all its stores in 2011, it seemed as if it could be good news for Barnes & Noble, which would have a chance to grab former Borders customers. But it appears that former Borders customers largely switched their book buying over to Amazon.

Comedy video site My Damn Channel is expanding its online programming with the launch of My Damn Channel Comedy Network, which will aim to offer “hundreds” of new series this year. The network is looking for content creators to submit ideas for original series, and accepted videos will be distributed on MyDamnChannel.com and on the company’s YouTube channels.

My Damn Channel has appointed Eric Mortensen, who was previously Blip’s senior director of content and network programming, as its director of programming and acquisitions, a new role. ”We’re investing in the team and the infrastructure to make the My Damn Channel Comedy Network the first choice for fans and the right choice for content,” said founder and CEO Rob Barnett in a statement.

In 2012, My Damn Channel launched a live daily comedy show on YouTube. The company says it saw a 91 percent increase in total video views across all its sites in 2012 compared to the previous year.

My Damn Channel’s search for more original content comes at a time when other companies are looking for the same thing. Amazon Studios recently announced its first six comedy pilots, including offerings from The Onion and “Doonesbury” author Garry Trudeau. And Yahoo launched its first original comedies last March. Barnett told me he’s “encouraged” to see other companies “beginning to fund great original content and we are working with some of them.” My Damn Channel Comedy Network stands out, he says, because it is aimed at creators “looking for a network partner who specializes in comedy series.”

Keith Rabois, the COO of mobile payments startup Square, resigned Thursday for reasons that were unclear. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal was the first to report that Rabois resigned “amid accusations from a Square employee of sexual harassment.”

Square confirmed the report, saying in a statement:

The first we heard of any of these allegations was when we received the threat of a lawsuit two weeks ago. We took these allegations very seriously and we immediately launched a full investigation to ascertain the facts. While we have not found evidence to support any claims, Keith exercised poor judgment that ultimately undermined his ability to remain an effective leader at Square. We accepted his resignation.

In a post on his personal blog on Friday, Rabois wrote:

In May 2010, I met someone via mutual friends. With increasing frequency, we hung out, drank wine, and I helped prepare him for interviews with tech startups. As our friendship deepened, we spent more time together, and our relationship became physical. … Several months after our relationship began, I recommended that he interview at Square. He went through the interview process and was ultimately hired. I had no impact on his potential success at the company. At no point did he ever report directly to me, and I have seen his work product less than a handful of times.

Rabois denied the allegations:

I realize that continuing any physical relationship after he began working at Square was poor judgment on my part. But let me be unequivocal with the facts: (1) The relationship was welcome. (2) Square did not know of the relationship before a lawsuit was threatened; it came as a complete surprise to the company. (3) He never received nor was denied any reward or benefits based on our relationship. And (4), I did not do the horrendous things I am told I may be accused of. While I have certainly made mistakes, this threat feels like a shakedown, and I will defend myself to the full extent of the law.

He said he “decided to resign from Square so my colleagues could continue to do great work without the distraction that a lawsuit would most certainly bring.”

Square appeared ready to back Rabois in the suit. Richard Curiale, outside counsel for Square and Rabois, told AllThingsD, “I have not as yet found any conduct that is illegal and therefore there is no adverse relationship between Keith and Square. We don’t pay for claims that have no merit to them, because it amounts to extortion.”

Square, a Silicon Valley-based startup that allows vendors to accept credit card payments from mobile phones, was cofounded by Twitter cofounder Jack Dorsey in 2009. The company has raised over $340 million in funding, with a reported valuation of $3.25 billion.

This story was continuously updated Friday afternoon as information became available.

In 2011, ABC canceled beloved soap operas One Life to Live and All My Children off the air and licensed them to production company Prospect Park, which said it would bring them back as online-only shows through what it’s calling The Online Network. After a few complications and labor disputes, the shows are coming back to life: Starting this spring, iTunes and Hulu will distribute new 30-minute episodes every weekday. (In the past, episodes were an hour long.) 

“Through both of these partners, we hope daytime drama fans are absolutely delighted to be able to watch their favorite programs in a broadcast-quality HD format wherever and whenever they want,” Prospect Park CEO Jeff Kwatinetz said in a statement. (Prospect Park’s cofounder is Rich Frank, the former head of Disney Studios.) Prospect Park has also signed a consulting agreement with the shows’ creator, Agnes Nixon, to guarantee “her active involvement in their continued production.”

Hulu will handle ad sales and Prospect Park plans to offer “e-commerce and other digital marketing programs to brands and entities looking to tap into Hulu’s mass market demographic.” Episodes will be free on Hulu and Hulu Plus, and I’ve asked Prospect Park what they will cost on iTunes.