Author: Lawrence Delevingne

  • The Long Controversial Life Of InterOil (IOC) (IOC)

    natural gas

    Today, we published excerpts from a new investigation of the controversial energy company InterOil (IOC).

    The often nasty debate over the company’s claims of natural gas and oil findings in Papua New Guinea has been going on for years.  So it’s worthwhile to get a rundown of who believes what and why.

    First, InterOil certainly has several big name supporters.

    Soros Fund Management counts IOC as one of its largest holdings ($214.4 million) as of December 31, 2009 and other financial backers have included Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and T. Boone Pickens, according to a 2007 New York Times InterOil profile.

    A report from Morgan Stanley from September 2009, “InterOil Corporation: Major Transformation Going Unnoticed; Overweight” says this:

    Unnoticed positive exploration and development story creates a buying opportunity.  We expect the gap between improving fundamentals and the stock price to close as the new story is understood.  We have investigated alleged negative claims, visited every IOC well-site in PNG, conducted due diligence, and analyzed the financials.  We expect significant share price appreciation once the market begins to see evidence of transformation led by potential 2009 catalysts: success at Antelope-2 and a sell-down of IOC’s project interest.

    Sham Gad of Gad Capital Management says investing in IOC may be an “act of faith,” but that it has “vast potential:”

    InterOil today has the strongest balance sheet in the company’s history, with 11% debt to total capital and $70 million in cash against $52 million in secured loans. Within the next five years, the company expects to be producing more than 80 million barrels a year in oil and natural-gas equivalents.

    If InterOil’s two main fields prove even half as potentially productive, its EV of $3 billion looks vastly undervalued, given its refining business, low costs, in addition to the other prospective fields, which could add much more potential supply.

    And, then, there are IOC’s many critics.

    Analyst Gary Dvorchak, writing on TheStreet.com, says the InterOil story will “end in scandal and losses:”

    InterOil is valued at $3 billion, mostly because of suspicious gas and oil reserve estimates in its principal plays in Papua New Guinea. The company’s exploration and production effort has resulted in no production, despite years of breathless press releases, and most of the supposed “reserves” are even questionable as to their existence or commercial viability.

    Let’s look at the red flags that should cause any investor to run for the hills: a lack of results relative to the valuation, suspicious claims on reserves, suspicious behavior of management and the association of known suspicious characters.

    Felon-turned-fraud-investigator Barry Minkow (who holds short positions on IOC) and his Fraud Discovery Institute says it’s all a sham:

    InterOil has ‘undiscovered resources’ and calling a field ‘world class’ isn’t the same thing as actually knowing how much of a natural resource exists there. InterOil is capitalizing on the confusion between undiscovered resources (which are unknown quantities) and discovered resources. And the victims are the investors who falsely believe that InterOil has known quantities of natural gas, when in fact they do not.

    Minkow has  an entire website — www.internooil.com — devoted to taking down the company. It includes a commissioned geologist’s report that allegedly shows “InterOil uses hype and smoke-and-mirrors techniques to bilk investors out of hundreds of millions of dollars.”  To be fair, Minkow is also paid for his research and often takes short positions in the companies he trashes.

    Another felon-turned-fraud-investigator, Sam Antar, says InterOil’s stock is boosted by a manipulation scheme involving InterOil, John Thomas Financial, and Clarion Finanz AG:

    I believe that InterOil with the assistance of Clarion Finanz concealed John Thomas Financial’s involvement in helping it raise $95 million through a private placement of convertible debt securities. Clarion Finanz acted as a buffer between InterOil and John Thomas Financial to help InterOil hide John Thomas Financial’s role in raising funds. Afterwards, InterOil filed false and misleading reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission in an effort to conceal John Thomas Financial’s role in helping the company raise $95 million in convertible debt.

    (Thomas Belesis, CEO of John Thomas, told us in a recent interview that Antar is a liar and an “idiot.”)

    Besides the technical back-and-forth, the debate has sometimes gotten nasty.

    Minkow released emails from late 2009 apparently from Susuve Laumaea, Senior Manager for Media Relations at InterOil that, among other things, said:

    “You are a scum of the earth, a creepy-crawlie who should have been locked away and the key thrown away too so that you rot away like the dung heap you are. You are a coward of the highest order, and you have a known short position, and you send lies out hoping to profit on the chance that your lies can manipulate share volatility down and deceive good shareholders. I can’t use you as crocodile feed because you are too poisonous … those alligators will die eating you, cooked or uncooked.”

    Read excerpts of the InterOil investigation we published here.

    Disclaimer: As we’ve noted, we’re confident in the analytical abilities of the person who conducted the research, but, importantly, we cannot, and are not, vouching for the veracity of any of the conclusions or facts in the report.  We present the author’s findings as a conversation-starter, in the hope that you, our readers, will help us sort fact from fiction. We also look forward to hearing the response from InterOil.

    Join the conversation about this story »

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  • What Recruiters Really Think Of The Top Business Schools

    Erin Dillard GEWhat do recruiters really think about having an MBA? And which programs are the most likely to land you a job?

    That’s what we asked top recruiters to complement our exclusive ranking of the World’s Best Business Schools.  Our interviews covered a range of companies — from Citigroup, GE, IBM, Bain, et al, to a venture capitalist and the president of a life-sciences business.

    Many executives and recruiters we interviewed were reluctant to go on the record about the benefits and drawbacks of specific schools.  Most said an MBA was great to have, but not critical. Some called out specific schools as best for their industry or company. Others said the choice of MBA program didn’t matter much, especially if it was a top 25 school.

    Here, we bring you extended questions and answers with the people who might look at your resume one day.

    What recruiters really think of the top business schools >>

    See Also:

    GE’s Erin Dillard

    GE's Erin Dillard

    Image: GE

    Name: Erin Dillard
    Company: General Electric
    Position:
    Director, Commercial Development Programs at GE Corporate

    When you see an MBA on a resume, what value does that add?

    What we’re looking for are strategic thinkers who can act as change agents in coming into GE. Deal with the ambiguity and solve complex problems in a very short period of time. We are also looking for individuals who we can leverage their previous work experience and education both functionally — so marketing and sales — as well as their domain experience in a specific industry.

    What specific skills does an MBA have over work experience?

    Especially in this current environment, in the complex issues we deal with, it gives people an opportunity to take a seat back and say how would I have done something differently, be a little bit more thoughtful in the way that they were looking at solving issues. I think it was also gives someone who already has a particular skill set in one area but is lacking in business acumen — kind of fill that void or gap. I believe the reason people should go back and get MBAs is because they are looking to fill some area that’s going to help propel them, accelerate them to the next level in their next career, wherever that takes them.

    Is an MBA’s network helpful?

    That is one of the reasons we rely on bringing MBAs in. We are a B-to-B company [business-to-business], but there are some great marketers who are coming from great B-to-C companies [business-to-consumer], like P&G. We rely on them not only to bring some of that skill set and expertise but also some of the network, so we can learn from best practices shared at other organizations. The network you build in your MBA is something you should carry with you throughout whole career and we hope to build on that.

    Comments on specific schools:

    Cornell: Cornell fosters integrity and a collaborative environment. Additionally, The Johnson School and GE have similar cultures which foster excellence, without arrogance.

    Darden: [University of Virginia]: Rigorous program that delivers top-notch general manager talent.

    Duke: Marketing expertise, healthcare focus, inclusive and collaborative culture. Good alignment for GE’s Healthcare business and Marketing Function

    Indiana: Kelley has a very strong marketing program where graduates tend to be a great fit for GE culture due to their ability to solve nebulous problems. Students operate with a “roll up your sleeves” mentality and are enthusiastic in initiatives outside of their day to day responsibilities

    Kellogg: GE’s approach to marketing continues to be heavily influenced by thought leadership from Kellogg. Beyond the obvious marketing focus, the Kellogg candidates we see are highly collaborative, team-players which makes them a strong cultural match with GE.

    Maryland: Diversity of student background combined with rigor that the MBA program provides, matches diverse needs of GE.

    Michigan: Many students at Michigan have a general management focus with good technical aptitude. ECLP provides the type of depth and breadth of opportunities and assignments where Ross graduates can build on their skills to become growth leaders at GE.

    Notre Dame: Notre Dame lives up to their reputation in delivering top candidates who can execute and operate with integrity. Additionally, they have heavy executive support and engagement from top levels at GE.

    USC: USC’s collaboration efforts prepares MBA’s who come to GE the willingness and ability to assimilate to the unique company culture through quickly adapting to new environments.

    Chicago: Based on Chicago’s curriculum there is a great alignment of the school’s focus in Capital and Healthcare to GE’s Healthcare and Capital businesses.

    Columbia: Columbia provides a foundation to produce good candidates with strong leadership abilities

    Emory: Emory is a strong fit for GE/ECLP [Experienced Commercial Leadership Program] because the Emory community espouses core values that very closely match to GE’s Core Values with an emphasis on integrity.

    Harvard: HBS’s mission of educating leaders that make a difference in the world compliments GE/ECLP’s focus on global citizenship as we have committed to taking on the world’s toughest challenges.

    North Carolina: GE and UNC are aligned in their commitment to building and teaching leadership both through experience and in the classroom.

    NYU: NYU is a strong match for GE due to it’s highly valued Finance program and population of students with strong finance and commercial backgrounds.

    Thunderbird: Thunderbird’s value proposition to ECLP is based on access to a highly diverse population of international and domestic candidates who are high caliber.

    Wharton: Wharton is known for delivering talent who provide a strong strategic thinking perspective combined with exemplifying executive communication skills.

    Any diamonds in the rough?

    Dillard singles out McCombs at the University of Texas at Austin. She notes that while they have not been one of GE’s “core schools,” UT MBA grads have made a positive impression. Dillard says they live up to their mantra of building “business leaders of tomorrow while creating knowledge of critical significance for industry and society.” She adds GE has found strong alignment for talent as feeders into GE’s Energy business.

    Accenture’s John Campagnino (Consulting)

    Accenture's John Campagnino (Consulting)

    Image: Accenture

    Name: John Campagnino
    Company: Accenture
    Position: Senior director of global recruitment

    Does an MBA boost chances of success at Accenture?

    The short answer is yes. I’d knock out four reasons off the top of my head for what we think MBA programs bring to our business.

    First one would be generally the broad business view that the MBA student comes with. The second is time management. The ability to multitask — many people balance work and school in some cases, or school and internships and other outside activities.

    The third thing I think is really important and the crux of the thing is that the work we do here is very aligned with the MBA school case study methodology. It’s really the presentation of the business problem, understanding the discrete elements of that problem and identifying key areas and then moving into solution mode is exactly what we do as an organization for our clients. That’s the third one and probably one of the biggest.

    Finally, one of the things business schools brings is the ability to build your network and to have business contacts that may turn into client development opportunities later on. That’s certainly something we value here at Accenture.

    What does an MBA mean 5 or 10 years later?

    After a certain point we do tend to focus on work experience. I mean listen, we want to have people who know something about something at this organization. We can look at coming to Accenture in two different ways. If you’re a career changer, then I think an MBA has high value for the reasons that I mentioned. The best way to make that leap is with an MBA program for the four reasons I mentioned.

    For experienced professionals, it’s a little bit more of a complicated question. We assume that individuals come in at some point in their career after a number of years in a professional work environment — they bring the critical thinking skills, the commitment to team work with them. They can make a good transition to executive. So if you’ve got industry experience, if you’re already a specialist in an area and plan on staying as such in that area, the MBA for us here may not be of that much value.

    Are there specific MBA programs that consistently give Accenture the best candidates?

    The four core MBA schools we work with are Wharton, Booth (Chicago), London Business School and INSEAD. Whenever we make a decision on the school, it’s an intersection of a couple of different things.

    It’s the demographics — can we get the people, the skills we need from that school? Number one. Number two is, are we in a position to effectively attract students from that school? And then third, a lot of this has to do with some of our relationships. Where have we built good, robust relationships so we can be what I call a day zero employer — we are one of the employers that have a reputation on campus that students will pick us ahead of others to interview with first.

    That’s not to say we don’t go to other places. For example in the U.S., we’ll go to Kellogg, we’ll go to Darden, we’ll go to Duke, we’ll go to Cornell and other institutions. And of course we’ve got local institutions we visit all over the world. But those four schools are where we get a large percentage of our management consulting capability from an MBA perspective.

    How many programs do you recruit from total?

    For MBA schools in the U.S., about ten on top of the four core schools.

    What’s particularly strong about each of the four core schools?

    These guys are all phenomenally good students. I would give a limb to have an MBA from one of those institutions. At the end of the day, I think they bring into balance the things that we need. They graduate people who have the right level of cross functional skill and business acumen that we need, the demographic around the people we get out of those schools. What I mean by that is those people are inclined towards the types of careers that we offer at Accenture, the type of work we do.

    VC Adele Olivia

    VC Adele Olivia

    Image: Quaker BioVentures

    Name: Adele Olivia
    Company: Quaker BioVentures
    Position: Partner

    How has your MBA in marketing from Cornell served you?

    I didn’t go back to business school to just check a box and get an MBA. I went back really embracing the opportunity to learn and to grow. For me, personally, I felt the MBA really accelerated my understanding of business and broadened my skill set in business, and I have found throughout my career the things I learned both in the classroom and on the team projects very valuable. Even now, when I’m close to 20 years from when I started my MBA, I still reflect on learning and situations then.

    Are there specific things you remember in terms of case studies, the approach to problem solving or the basics of finance?

    I think it was a combination. Cornell has a combination of case studies and theory, which I loved. There were a number of case studies in the entrepreneurship class that I recall, but also paradigms. The great thing about business school is that it gives you paradigms in which to think through problems and take a view on situations, and those paradigms are valid today in terms of the “Ps” of marketing and other things that you learn.

    Have you found the degree opened certain doors or made conversations with those Quaker BioVentures might invest in easier?
     
    I certainly feel there is a very big advantage to the expanded network and the halo effect of a small business school.

    For Cornell specifically?

    Absolutely Cornell specifically, but I also see it with other programs as well.

    How do you view the MBA degree when hiring?

    I hire one or two people a year. I just caution people because I think it really is for an individual to decide the value that they can get from an MBA degree, and how it will help them grow in the future. I don’t think everyone has to go back to business school in order to be successful, and there are a lot of examples of people with strong operating backgrounds that have been very successful, or that are voracious readers and that are able to pick things up outside the classroom as part of the day to day course of their lives.

    I do believe that it helps jumpstart, gives a perspective, provides a grounding in which people think in certain ways, and an understanding and a communication pattern that may provide shorthand.

    In terms of specific programs, what are the best you’ve found in the life science industry?

    I think there are three very strong programs in life sciences. Cornell has an accelerated degree for people with graduate degrees in engineering and science. It’s a twelve month program and they get a lot of very talented individuals. What I like about Cornell is that balance of case and theory, because I feel like both contribute to the learning and how you ultimately view things and approach life and business.

    The second program is Wharton. Wharton has a healthcare specific track and program that is very good in venture capital and private equity, as does Cornell, Cornell also has a very good venture capital and private equity program. So I feel that the individuals that come out of Wharton have a strong health care network and then they also have some of the basics around terms, legal documentation, things like that.

    The third program I think very highly of is Stanford. Stanford, not only because of the proximity to Silicone Valley, but because I think they do a very good job in the individuals they take into the program and screening those individuals. I find people out of Stanford bright, collegial, technically strong, and a huge asset no matter where they are, be it a company or at a firm.

    Any other diamonds in the rough, especially for life sciences?

    In term of part-time programs there’s a school in this area [Philadelphia], St. Joseph’s University, that has a part-time MBA program that is the best in the area and that has an emphasis on pharmaceutical marketing as well as the biopharmaceutical industry.

    Does getting an MBA from Harvard not translate well into the life sciences?

    No, not at all, there are a lot of very successful people from HBS. It’s just if I had to pick three, those would be the three I would pick. I think the graduates [from those programs] have tended to be a great cultural fit for the places where I fit. They bring a great skill set, are very diligent, hard working individuals that are team-oriented and want to succeed as a team.

    Semprae Labs’ Rachel Braun Sheri (Small Business)

    Semprae Labs' Rachel Braun Sheri (Small Business)

    Image: Semprae Laboratories

    Name: Rachel Braun Scherl
    Company: Semprae Laboratories
    Position: President

    How has your MBA helped you specifically?

    I would talk about specific skills that I found extremely valuable, which is, certainly at Stanford [MBA ’92], ability to manage in a situation that requires consensus or some sort of collaboration, because as a service provider, you are not the ultimate decision maker, but you have to have a cogent argument to support your point of view.

    Also, given my background, it was hugely valuable to have the financial training — cost economics and accounting and all the basics was extremely valuable, because you then get to use it in the context of group work with people who have actually have been bankers and lawyers and all those kinds of things.

    The third piece I would say is communications skills. And I put an extremely high premium on verbal and written skills. And I think that they encourage that kind of improvement and self presentation.

    And finally I would say — it’s not as hard a skill — but confidence that you were successful in an environment with such terrific, dynamic, fabulous people and you could figure out a model that worked in the context of your personality. So I don’t just mean diversity — people of different races, backgrounds, ages — but diversity of thinking and presentation and ways of approaching things. Which in my experience is almost validated, praised and celebrated there.

    When hiring, what does seeing an MBA on a resume tell you?

    I would say honestly it only means something in the context of a broader experience. I do think that when you see Stanford, the person who selected Stanford has selected it. People who go to Stanford aren‘t there because they didn‘t get into Harvard. It’s a choice and a philosophy and a point of view. So I am positively predisposed to the kind of person that that will be.

    What about a candidate with a little less work experience but a stellar MBA?

    Absolutely, I think you have to be able to check the box [of an MBA], for sure. I think it does make a difference. The fact that they have that and that they’ve done that in the context of the other experience they’ve had usually either strengthens what they were doing before or help them get into a new direction, that has a lot of value.

    If you’re talking about the difference between a Stanford degree and 10 years of work experience, I don’t think the equation works the same way. But on the margin, it absolutely would make a difference.

    Part of that is the selection process. I really do. You’re in a room just with really, really outstanding people. It’s not that you’re friends with everyone, but there’s just a sense of a strong culture.

    There is a Stanford experience. If you’re looking for experiences like that I think it could help you focus your job search. And I think as a hiring person, it would help you have sense of the kind of a person it was. It would absolutely, positively, pre-dispose me to a candidate. I don’t know if that’s politically correct or not, but that’s my perception.

    How is Stanford MBA different for working in a new business, versus, say Harvard or Chicago?

    There is a true, true focus, investment and skill base in entrepreneurship, in doing things a different way. Whether that means a new business model, a new business, a new approach, a new way to communicate, a new technology. So there is a legitimate emphasis on running your own business.

    The skills to think strategically, understand markets, identify opportunities for growth, whether that’s in a business management role or consulting role, were very critical.

    How about with venture capital?

    If you’re in VC, I think it’s a huge advantage. The network is unparalleled. For me it was enormously helpful when I went out to raise venture funding, which I had never done before.

    It’s not a call back or not, it changes the way the conversation starts. It changes the dynamic in your favor at the beginning of the conversation.

    It’s yours to lose at that point, as opposed to having to climb up a really big hill from the bottom. It really changes the dynamic. People do it in sports all the time. If they have a common school they root for or a team they root for, it just sets it up so there’s a sense of personal connection. That enables you to tell your story in a way that is not as wrote and in a way that is much more interactive. And in fundraising, if it’s not interactive, it’s dead at the start.

    Outside of Stanford, which programs carry the most weight?

    Depending on the job, my experience is Harvard, Northwestern [Kellogg], Stanford and Wharton would all carry a lot of weight.

    A Wharton person knows their way around a business, they know their way around a P&L, they know their way around a spreadsheet. They know how to be successful in a really competitive environment. I think of that as somewhat of a collaborative environment. If Stanford’s a 10, maybe that’s a 7? But absolutely strong, strong, fundamentals. Business fundamentals, strategy fundamentals, finance fundamentals. They encourage you a lot to do internships and programs to get some actual business experience.

    For me, Northwestern is that they get marketing. They step in the door and they get it. There’s a focus on the consumer, there’s a focus on insights. My experience is they’re very easy to work with — I would absolutely be most positively predisposed to a Stanford MBA or a Northwestern MBA. A large part of that is because I believe they teach collaboration and figuring out your role in an organization. As opposed to, ‘I’m starting as a CEO my first day out.’

    I think that [Harvard MBA grads] are incredibly bright and they do a great job of teaching leadership. Someone with a Harvard Business background has access to a network that’s unparalleled. That would be an advantage in terms of knowing that someone was ready for prime time. I could put them in front of a boardroom, I could put them in leadership positions because they had a lot of experience presenting. They really do focus on leadership and they have a great network which has a lot of meaning when you’re trying to do any kind of business in terms of finding good people, access to capital, resources, all of those things.

    McKesson’s Ryann Cheung (Healthcare IT)

    McKesson's Ryann Cheung (Healthcare IT)

    Image: McKesson

    Name: Ryann K. Cheung

    Company: McKesson Corporation
    Position: Program Manager, Talent Acquisition

     

    Does an MBA help a candidate will thrive at McKesson?

     

    I think that we value the MBA degree because it tends to bring talent in with new and or latest ways of thinking, to infuse us with new perspective. We have a finance rotational program that is focused to rotate through McKesson over the course of two years. These people touch different business units and we’ve had a pretty dynamic response, so we recruit them straight from business school and they come into this program. We’ve had great responses from people in terms of the energy level the new MBAs bring as well as value that we gain from their knowledge coming out of business school.

     

    What specific skills usually come from an MBA?

     

    I think for us it’s really about the latest ways of thinking, because we obviously get people targeting us that are interested in the health care industry that bring a lot of passion. Maybe they’re doing a career change and they’re bringing a skill set from prior company life into business school and then making a transition into health care or it could be somebody that’s been on a health care path. Particularly for people doing some kind of a career change, whether its industry or a functional area change, it’s about having that grounding. If, for example, they’ve been in IT and they want to go into finance, then we know that they’re coming in with some baseline finance skills even if maybe they haven’t had that work history in their resume. So I think an MBA is very helpful for people looking to make a career shift to gain that knowledge in an academic setting before they step into a new role for them.

     

    Is there a difference between an MBA and spending a year or two in the health care industry in a similar role?

     

    People come out of business school with a broad network of classmate and professor connections, so for example if there’s a problem that a company is grappling with [they have people to reach out to for that] or in terms of the knowledge of a professor doing research in an academic area. I think there is a lot of social development that goes on in business school that somebody may not be able to get in the same way if they just say, “ OK, I’m going to take a lateral move from IT into finance because I persuaded the financial manager to give me a shot,” because at business school you get mentoring, if you will, from fellow students that may have been in finance and are looking to make a switch elsewhere.

     

    Is an MBA just a good screen of candidates for recruiters?

     

    That’s a tough question for me to answer from an HR perspective because I don’t want to sound like we would necessarily take someone that has deep industry knowledge over a newly-minted MBA. It depends on position and role. I certainly think, I don’t want to harp on the career change too much, but if someone says, “I’m willing to invest in myself and I’m interested in furthering my career and so I’m going to take this opportunity to either step out of the working world for two years or disturb my work life balance,” I think that’s a very positive thing for them to demonstrate. Even more so for folks that do a degree through an executive MBA or an evening/weekend program. We’ve certainly hired people that have completed their MBAs through an evening or weekend program because for whatever reason they can’t step out to do a full-time degree or haven’t chosen to do it that way, but they can still also still bring a lot of value and demonstrate that, “Hey, I’m more than what my resume says right now and I’m going get my degree to prove that.”

     

    How many campuses do you focus on, and which?

     

    Currently we have six to seven target schools. Six officially: UCLA Anderson, Haas at Berkeley, Wharton, Goizueta at Emory, UT at Austin — McCombs — and Vanderbilt Owen. 

    Why those schools?

    Generally, when we’ve looked at adding target schools we’ve look at a couple of different factors. We look for some kind of strong health care presence. Hass has a focus in health care that you can get if you do a straight MBA and then they also have a combined MBA and PH degree. Wharton obviously has a very strong health care program, Vanderbilt as well. UCLA Anderson actually has a pretty strong health care club presence — students have banded together to say ‘hey, this is a really interesting industry we have an interest in exploring.’

     

    In addition, we really look at where students want to go in terms of what are our recruiting needs from a full time and internship perspective.  UT Austin and Anderson tend to have people that are very interested in corporate finance. We have a corporate finance program. With Haas and Wharton we look for the corporate strategy and business development group.

     

    We also look for a nice geographic mix in our schools because we do have opportunities across the country, particularly for the finance rotational program, and we want to have people that are set to take the journey with us over the course of two years. Emory is a small school but they have a strong health care presence and they definitely hit the geographical component for us in terms of our Alpharetta offices.

     

    We also look for schools with a strategic focus on building a diverse student class because we want to make sure that we are hiring people with diversity and inclusion from our traditional thought process on gender, race, and ethnicity, but also a nice mix of schools so that we’ve got people form different educational backgrounds bringing different ways of thinking and problem solving.

     

    Are there programs that have yielded strong employees that aren’t in that instantly recognized list of MBA brands?

     

    I would have to go back to our target schools. One of the reasons they’ve continued to stay target schools is because the people coming from them have been cultural fits for us. To flip that question around: Is there’s a school that could be a great fit for us [that we’re overlooking]? Maybe. We also focus on keeping our number of target schools realistic to our hiring targets, particularly from a just-out-of-business-school interns and fresh grads perspective.

     

    If we were at 50 schools but only ever hiring from five for the rotational finance program, I’m kind of wasting my brand, and time, and dollars going to that many schools. Really taking a strategic focus on digging in and making sure a school is right for us is a very important thing.

    Bain’s Mark Howorth (Management Consulting)

    Bain's Mark Howorth (Management Consulting)

    Image: Bain & Co.

    Name: Mark Howorth
    Company: Bain & Company
    Position: Head of global recruiting

    Does an MBA make for a better consultant at Bain?

    It’s certainly not a requirement to work at Bain & Company to have an MBA. What we do expect though is that people have a certain tool-kit if you will. A set of business understanding and experience. What we find is that people with MBAs typically have that tool-kit. Getting an MBA is a great way to get the basics of business education that our clients expect the consultants they hire to have. So understanding the basics of finance, marketing and strategy and organizational behavior, etc.

    Some say an MBA is just about a name on a resume and networking. Your reaction?

    I disagree with that. I think there is a lot of value in getting an MBA. Do not underestimate what our top business schools are able to do in terms of teaching those basic business skills. Very few people have had a year or two years to go and study cutting edge thinking in terms of finance and marketing and strategy and capital markets and all the rest of that stuff. That’s important for us, at least at Bain & Company, where we’re trying to hire the best business talent, it’s important that our consultants know that stuff. That’s the first thing.

    The second thing I think is very valuable about an MBA that is somewhat unique to that degree is that at virtually all the top MBA programs…you’re spending a lot of your time each day getting into the heads of a bunch of different companies that have been in very challenging business situations — really working through what did they do in that situation. For our business, the consulting business, that’s a perfect laboratory to practice the skill-set that you’re going to use when you come here. We help our clients out of usually pretty tough situations. Usually they’ve got to make some hard business decisions and so what better way to learn it then to spend a year or two going through that and sort of role playing it.

    The third thing is the networking. At the end of the day, the lifetime network you build is powerful and important for our industry. Often time when we’re trying to help our clients, we can talk to people you may have gone to school with 10 years ago, and be able to get help from those kinds of people. And that absolutely helps our clients — that we have a group of people I know I can call who can help me when I’m trying to solve my client’s problems.

    What about different MBA brands?

    I don’t view one MBA brand as different from another. We interview every candidate similarly. That may come as a surprise to you, but once someone gets a job offer from Bain & Company, if you look at their career trajectory over the next three to nine years, there’s no difference how somebody does based on where they got their MBA.

    Most place a huge value on going to the top business schools. Is that a fallacy?

    The actual education that you learn — there are tons and tons of great schools that can teach you that. I don’t control where the best business talent decides to get their MBA, so we tend to go to the places where we can find the best talent. If for whatever reason, there are five schools out there that the top students are trying to go to, then that’s probably where we end up going to try and hire from places like that. But in terms of the raw education, you’re going to use the same textbooks and get the same business theory at all the schools. We don’t see much different from that at all.

    There is something to the fact that you do get a lot of the learning from your program from the students you’re going to school with. So if the best students are going to the top 30 schools, well maybe there is a slightly different level of education. But like I said, once they get to Bain & Company at least, we can’t tell the difference.

    Just to push you a little bit — isn‘t a Harvard or Stanford MBA a little different from others?

    If that were true, I’d only go to the top five programs. But I don’t — I go to 20, 30 programs to recruit. Obviously we spend more energy and put more resources against the places where we think we’ll find more students that will pass our screen, and those tend to be the top 15 programs. That just makes sense, because that’s where the talent is.

    It’s just natural resource allocation to say if a whole bunch of people go to the top three or four schools, that’s where we make sure we’re going to go and find those people there, because our job is to find the best business talent. But once we start the interviewing, we don’t pay attention to which school they came from.

    Are there other hurdles? While it’s not impossible for someone to do well at Bain, it is generally tough if you have a GMAT below 650. When we’re trying to sort out who we’re going to interview for the jobs, we don’t use GMAT as a strict screen, it is a good indicator — if someone got a 550, they’re probably not going to do well at Bain & Company. The schools tend to collect people with certain level of GMATs. So once again, we’re going to go where we think the most talent is, but that doesn‘t mean that if we find some random MBA program and somebody has done well and they get their application in to us, we’re certainly going to interview them.

    What’s the value of having an MBA 10 or 15 years after the degree?

    Zero. Obviously it’s nice if they have an MBA, but when we’re hiring people at the manager or partner level, 99 percent of what we’re looking at is what they’ve done with their business career, what kind of experiences they’ve had, and whether or not they’ve a track record of being able to crack tough business problems and help change clients. That’s really what we look at there — we pay almost no attention to the school at all.

    Excluding undergraduate hires, what percentage of new employees have MBAs?

    At a consulting level, it varies by year, but it’ll typically be that 70 or 80 percent of the people will have MBAs. However, recognize that there is significant geographic differences is that. Culturally, the MBA is viewed very differently in Europe and Asia than it is in North America.

    In Europe — let’s use Germany as a good example. The MBA degree doesn‘t really have a lot of — I don’t want to say credibility — frankly people aren‘t even all that aware of it. As a result, the best talent doesn‘t go get an MBA. In Germany, as an example, what you do is go get a PhD.

    If you look at Asia, there’s some value on the MBA degree there, but there are limited sources of good MBAs there. Just because of the hard demand for talent we have there, by definition we’re bringing in people who don’t have that kind of degree. They are still top — our rule is not let’s look for the degree, let’s find the best business talent.

    Note: Bain declined to provide a list of schools it recruits at, but its recruiting website has dedicated pages for MBA programs at Harvard, Stanford, Columbia, Northwestern, INSEAD and LSE, among others.

    Citigroup’s Eileen Stephan

    Citigroup's Eileen Stephan

    Image: Citigroup

    Name: Eileen Stephan
    Company: Citigroup
    Position: Head of graduate recruitment

    How is an MBA valued at Citigroup?

    We very much value students who come with an MBA to Citi across a variety of our businesses. We feel strongly it provides a great platform as someone begins — or continues — their professional career in financial services. We think it’s very valuable.

    Is an MBA just a box to check? Or are there actual skills?

    The value of an MBA is something that displays itself over time. There are immediate benefits to pursuing an MBA that a student or candidate brings to the job as a newly-minted MBA. They’ve been in a classroom setting for two years working with faculty who have conducted tremendous amounts of research about the business world and changes in the global economy that are important for a company to be abreast of, and new students entering the firm bring that spirit of research and excitement about the business world with them. And there are skills that are learned in the classroom, whether it’s finance, accounting, strategy, marketing, etc. that are all valuable pieces of that platform.

    An MBA is a life-long benefit in that after you bring your initial set of immediate skills to the table, as you progress through you career, you have the opportunity to draw on the things you learned in the classroom as you take on greater leadership and management responsibilities. You think of the general management courses that people take, the organizational behavior classes that people may be involved in. You would draw upon those maybe a little later in your career, which provides again, an important benefit of the degree. So I would not say it’s necessarily a check the box endeavor.

    What’s the value of an MBA, say, 10 years after the degree?

    It’s very individual to the candidate and the experiences they’ve had. We take a very thoughtful approach at reviewing candidates and their expereinces and the sum total of those experiences. You can have someone with a graduate degree with significant experience and that makes them the appropriate candidate; you can have someone with significant experience without a graduate degree and that experience is sufficient. So it’s a very individual process and I don’t think it can be captured in an ‘if this, then that’ assessment.

    What roles do you most commonly hire MBAs for?

    For direct from an MBA program into the firm, we hire students into our institutional securities businesses, which includes investment banking; our global transaction services business; our finance function; a global leadership development program. So a wide variety.

    Where does Citi focus its recruiting?

    We look at, broadly speaking, the top 25 MBA programs globally, and our obviously very interested in the students coming from those programs. We also welcome applications from highly qualified students from a variety of business schools around the globe. It depends on the candidate’s experiences, the sum total of their education and how they present as a candidate.

    There some programs that are better than others, no?

    We truly value our relationship with all the schools that we recruit from and we find marvelously talented people who are interested in financial services. To somehow imply one school or two schools are better at it than others is just not [fair].

    We are a diversified financial services firm situated in 105 plus countries. We look for quite a variety of backgrounds, skill-sets and education from those who comprise MBA students globally. So it’s physically not possible for me to say that school A, because it’s quant focused or finance focused is more important to us than school B that’s leadership focused, because we focus on such a wide variety of campus programs that we recruit from into the firm.

    Any diamonds in the rough outside the 25 schools you recruit at?

    It depends on how you classify what your top 25 is. In any given year, there are schools — call it up to the top 50 — that will produce some wonderfully talented candidates. The trick is making the match happen. Whether that’s through student networking or alumni contacts, etc., we welcome candidates from competitive programs and see if we can make the right match for something at the firm.

    We don’t use any one metric for whether a school is appropriate for Citi. We look at the rankings, sure, they’re there, they’re publically availible, there’s lots of work that goes into them and they yield some important information.

    But we also look at the performance of the candidates we’ve attracted from those schools who are working at Citi. We look at the quality of the education, we look at the rigor of the admissions process, we look at a variety of factors for how we want to position ourselves.

    IBM’s Peggy Tayloe

    IBM's Peggy Tayloe

    Image: IBM

    Name: Peggy Tayloe
    Company: IBM
    Position: Director of Recruiting

    How does an MBA help IBM candidates?

    There is a portion of the hiring that we do that’s specific targeted to candidates with MBAs. For those specific types of skills and talent needs, we absolutely target a business school background. Usually, we like to have some practical experience on top of that or to compliment the business school training. And mostly those are analytical skills — business intelligence, business analytics and optimization, enterprise resource planning, those kinds of consulting and leadership development positions.

    I’m not saying that’s the only criteria, or if you don’t have your MBA you won’t be considered for those jobs, but it definitely is something we look for and our attracted to.

    Does an MBA teach relevant skills for working at IBM?

    Yes, especially on the consulting side. The idea of honing an analytic approach to problem solving — modeling out some scenarios to help with problem solving — absolutely that way of thinking is developed in MBA programs and that is something we look for in our candidates. I wouldn’t say it’s just a credential, it’s absolutely a good investment if you’re looking for a job in certain areas of IBM. But does it mean someone without an MBA does not have those skills? No, not necessarily. So, it’s not a base-level criteria that we look at, but it’s definitely a preferred part of the background.

    How much does an MBA mean 10 or more years out?

    I don’t think it plays far less of a role. I think an MBA from 10 years ago is still an incredibly powerful part of a candidate background. It also depends on what that candidate did in addition to . We really look for well-rounded resumes. In this day in age, we look for the global citizen, who is going to having experience with multiple languages or experience with a corporate that has presence in multiple countries or if they’ve worked abroad, or if they’ve got an upbringing that was abroad outside of the United States. That would be great and that would be considered in addition to any kind of formal education. But the formal education, whether an MBA was 10 years ago or this year, an MBA is a very powerful part of your credential.

    Are there specific schools you like to recruit from?

    It would not be fair to call out one school over another. Because we hire so many people around the world and the skill ranges are so broad, we might work with a local program to be the pipeline in to certain skill sets or hiring initiatives. And we might work with the top tier MBAs. We don’t specifically partner with some subset of schools. Our needs are so broad. It can come down to one hiring manager being interested in one candidate and it really doesn’t matter what school that candidate is from.

    There is no targeted strategy at IBM for MBAs. We are very thoughtful about engaging with those programs, but when it comes down to candidate selection, the gamut is open.

    Is there really no programs that stand out on a resume?

    I understand where you want to go with that, and I would tell you if we did. We just don’t. We don’t as a matter of practice think one school brings something better to the table consistently to another school. It really is a matter of the needs of the business and the specific talent and location needs — and the candidates. That determines who we hire and where we hire them from. We really don’t target X number of students from X school.

    Other voices

    Other voices

    Ira Ehrenpreis

    Image: Technology Partners

    “There’s no single path to entrepreneurial or venture success. Ranging from college dropouts like Bill Gates to the well-educated and fully pedigreed leaders in the start-up and venture communities, there’s a wide range of backgrounds, experience and education that define the most successful companies and VC firms. I have a lot of respect for the MBA as one path of formal training, but it’s clearly not a prerequisite to success.”

               —Ira Ehrenpreis, General Partner, Technology Partners (Venture capital firm)

    “Certainly an advance degree exposes people to different skill sets, experiences and training that expands their horizons. Yet, there is also no substitute for real business experiences and the lessons one gains from both successes and failures.”

               –Elizabeth Decker, Assistant Vice President, New York Life Insurance Company

    See the World’s Best Business Schools

    See the World's Best Business Schools

    Our exclusive ranking of the world’s top business schools >

    Join the conversation about this story »


  • Stratfor: Anyone Exporting Commodities To China Is About To Get Creamed

    Global intelligence firm Stratfor has a video analysis explaining the risks of a Chinese economic slow-down:

    “Both investors and countries whose economies are dependent on China start February increasingly worried about the direction of the Chinese economy. Monetary tightening and allocations of resources mean that present growth expectations are unsustainable,” says Stratfor.

    Major points of the report:

    • Asian investors are worried about the impact of monetary tightening in China on a fragile world economy
    • There are conflicting reports from China about lending — slow the bubble, or is economy not ready for cuts to government subsidies?
    • Chinese banks are curbing lending
    • Big infrastructure projects will require continued lending despite pressure to cut spending
    • Exports to the U.S. and Europe are faltering
    • Chinese growth figures unreliable — likely inflated –and unsustainable.
    • Suppliers to China (raw materials, commodities) could suffer

    Here’s the full video:

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  • The Only 10 Important Things Said So Far In Davos

    davos world economic forum switzerland panel WEF

    Davos is a crowded place this week.

    Luminaries and assorted hangers-on are all jostling for attention at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting. There are some 224 sessions over five days for opining on the future of the world, not to mention countless interview opportunities from hoards of reporters.

    In short, there's plenty said, most of it a huge snooze.

    Here are the only 10 important things that have been said so far, including:

    • The recovery will be U-shaped
    • Bankers should aim for 10% return on equity, not a greedy 20%

    Ten Can't-Miss Quotes From Davos So Far >>>

    Image: WEF/Monika Flueckiger

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  • The Only 12 Davos Panels Worth Paying Attention To

    larry lawrence summers davos world economic forum WEF

    The World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland from Wednesday to Sunday this week is the globe's premier financial conference.

    That doesn't mean you need to pay attention to most of it.

    Studded with financial, political and academic all-stars, the conference is packed with 224 sessions. They range from must-attend, potentially market-moving events like the White House's Larry Summers on the U.S. economic outlook to maybe-attend, inconsequential offerings, like "Directing Avatar - Conversation with James Cameron" (no kidding).

    From an American business perspective, only a dozen sessions are critical to pay attention to. Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini could nail 2010 market predictions; Brian Moynihan could terrify Bank of America shareholders with an off-script remark; or Congressman Barney Frank could derail financial regulation with the wrong sound-bite.

    You can follow many of the events on a Livestream video feed and we'll be summarizing the most important points made each day. For now, here's what to watch for.

    The Only 12 Davos Panels You Need To Pay Attention To >

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  • STRATFOR’S TOP PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE: China Collapse, Global Labor Shortages, New American Dominance

    peter zeihan stratfor

    What will the next decade bring for the world?

     STRATFOR has the answers. In a Decade Forecast released yesterday, the global intelligence company predicts Chinese economic collapse, game-changing global labor shortages, and continued American dominance because of a gradual retreat from international engagement. Welcome to 2010.

    SEE ALL OF STRATFOR'S 2020 CALLS HERE>>>

    We spoke with Peter Zeihan, Vice President of Strategic Intelligence, about STRATFOR's predictions, of which he was an author. Below are edited excerpts from our conversation.

    TBI: What are the broad trends that Stratfor sees shaping the world in the next decade?

    Zeihan: Probably one of the biggest breaks that Stratfor has with conventional wisdom is that most of the world is convinced that the United States is a power in terminal decline. In fact we see the United States withdrawing from its two wars, regardless of whether or not they've ended, and returning to a more balanced attention span in dealing with the rest of the world.

    Most of the rest of the world will view that as an American retreat from prominence and a sign that the U.S. is in decline once again. But really when you're a naval power and a merchant power, being out of the Middle East is increasing greatly your power to act and you willingness to act. So we see it as a very American-centric decade moving forward.

    Which predictions are most surprising?

    Aside from the United States not going anywhere, I would say we expect the economic collapse of China in this coming decade. We've been talking for awhile about how the economic system there is remarkably unstable and we think that they're going to reach a break point as all of the internal inconsistencies come to light and shatter. By the end of the decade, it'll be pretty obvious to everybody that the China miracle is over. As we enter the decade, people are finally, finally starting to talk about China bubbles. If only their problem was that simple! With the Europeans, the new European treaty actually matters. The Lisbon Treaty is the first of dozens of treaties that the EU has done, but it's the first one that actually does away with most of the single member vetoes; and so you've got Germany actually able to force its will upon a lot of states. Germany is going to be ascendant in a manner that it has not been since the late 1930s! Doesn't mean it's going to be rolling tanks into Poland or anything like that, but they are going to be using their institutional power to push everybody around.

    That is going to cause a remarkable degree of discord and unpredictability in Europe, and that is something that the Russians are going to take advantage of every chance that they get. The Russians realize that they're in a race against the clock before their demographics kill them as a country, and so they want to make sure that they've got as wide of a buffer as possible. As long as Europe is at each others throats, even if its just with bureaucratic paper, the Russians are going to take advantage of that to strengthen their western perimeter and push the frontier into Europe as far as they can. They know in 20 or 30 years they're not going to be able to do much, so they want to buy as much time and space as possible.

    What does the American business community need to pay closest attention to?

    The business community is probably going to get its shirt handed to it over China. Now American investment into China is not nearly as robust as most people think. It's actually only five or six billion dollars every year, very, very small in the grand scheme of things, even by Chinese standards. But the ability of China to continue to supply cheap exports to the United States might come into danger. Not on the whole, because all of the Chinese regional cities will still have an interest in doing that, even once the Chinese system cracks. But you're going to have to pay very close attention to your supply chain there as the politics of China become unglued. Japan -- also a major investor in a lot of places, also a major supplier of a lot technology and a lot of capital -- Japan's demographics are the worst in the world. In the next decade, they're going to have to find some way to rectify the fact that they just don't have sufficient number of workers to supply what they need.

    They could turn to their traditional surplus labor source, which is Korea and China, in which case we could have some sort of East Asian conflict, perhaps even military in nature. You have the world's second or third largest economies starting to duke it out in some manner, and businessmen in America are going to take notice. Or at least they'd better. In a broader demographic issue, all of the countries in the developed world and most of them in the developing world are aging. We're going to be seeing a lot of countries maybe not start to have their populations decline but certainly have them age and no longer grow. The core economic platform that has driven the human condition for the last millennia is that populations will continue to get larger, markets will continue to get larger, there will be more capital available. In this next decade that starts to invert. The cost of capital is going to go up, the availability of markets are going to go up, and that's ultimately a deflationary environment. It'll get worse in future decades, but this next decade is when the rules of the game start to change. 

    See STRATFOR's predictions for 2020 >

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  • 10 Emerging Financial Centers That Will Blindside New York and London

    shanghai-china-CGI

    The financial crisis slammed global banking hubs around the world. Were it not for government bailouts, Wall Street, The City and other banking hubs may never have recovered.

    The traditional financial powerhouses stand weakened, and others, long hungry to steal their business, are taking advantage.

    Around the world, regional banking centers like Toronto, Shanghai, Singapore and Zurich are poised for explosive growth and to become the new world financial leaders.

    Of course, New York, London and other leaders aren't going away anytime soon. But as Western power declines, banks could increasingly favor Hong Kong and Sao Paulo, say, for their operations and investments.

    In no particular order, we present the top financial centers to go long on.

    The top emerging financial centers >>>

    Image: A 2008 architectural rendering of Shanghai and what it will look like with new skyscrapers in the city's Lujiazui financial center.

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  • The Next Wave Of GDP-Killing State Budget Slashing Begins

    jackhammer construction worker

    Most state budgets have been walloped by the financial crisis. But, as we noted in November, 10 are really bad, like California bad.

    Now, the real pain is coming.

    Decrying budget shortfalls is an abstract exercise, but service cuts, increased taxes, and layoffs are all very real, and when they happen, GDP falls.

    Paul Krugman once referred to states that slash their budgets as Little Herbert Hoovers.

    It's a bleak picture. Based on historical precedent, state budgets are likely to get worse, bottoming long after the national economy, with costs rising faster than revenue. 

    The 10 Worst State Budgets & Cuts -->

    Methodology notes: The top ten ranking is taken from a November 2009 Pew Center on the States study. The ranking looks at budget gaps, foreclosure rates, lost state revenues, unemployment, money-management practices, and where "super-majority" requirements are killing efforts to fix the financial mess. Scores for each category are tallied for an overall ranking. We bring you the top 10, counting down from bad to worst. The higher score, the bigger the crisis. California gets a 30, while the national average is 17.

    The deficit numbers are taken from a December 2009 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities' State Fiscal Project study.

    Information on recent and looming deficit fixes are from media reports and a seperate CBPP report.

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  • Mexican Silver Lining: Weakening Peso And The Drug Trade Will Bring Country Out Of Recession

    pot weed marijuana mexico drugs cartel

    Mexico is one of the world's geopolitical disasters waiting to happen.

    There's a brutal, costly and ineffective war on drug cartels; big government deficits (debt is nearly 40% of GDP); and less and less oil (Mexico could be a major energy importer within 10 years).

    Peter Zeihan, VP of Strategic Analysis at Stratfor, a global intelligence company, recently put the looming oil crisis this way to us: "What happens when all of a sudden its primary source of income disappears? Mexico is flirting with failed state status now."

    Dire stuff. But two unlikely silver linings to Mexico's financial crisis may help turn the country around.

    Stratfor summarizes:

    Standard & Poor’s on Dec. 14 cut Mexico’s credit rating to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade. Faced with declining oil profits and an increased budget deficit, Mexico will be at risk of underinvestment in the years to come, which may force the government to ramp up borrowing. This is not an unfamiliar situation for Mexico: Capital shortages are built into its geography. However, there are two possible silver linings for the Mexican economy: the weakening peso and the drug trade.

    How does that work? First, the weakening peso may have a positive effect on trade and may dampen negative effects of declining remittances.

    Again, Stratfor:

    Despite the decline in the value of the peso — 17 percent since January 2008 — the depreciation is not really a problem for Mexico compared to past bouts of peso devaluation. This time around, Mexico’s government debt is a relatively manageable 39.3 percent of GDP. Private sector debt is at 30.9 percent of GDP, but it is mostly peso-denominated, with only around 30 percent of all private sector debt denominated in foreign currency...The peso’s loss in value, therefore, will not have a devastating effect on the economy due to sudden appreciation of foreign currency loans that were denominated in U.S. dollars.
    --
    Furthermore, peso depreciation helps with two other key economic factors for Mexico: remittances and exports...Even though fewer U.S. dollars are going back to Mexico in absolute terms, they have a greater purchasing power.

    Also, an influx of money from Mexico’s lucrative drug trade into local banks may have helped them weather the worst of the recession.

    Stratfor: Ironically, the solution to Mexico’s revenue problem may be the drug trade. Trafficking in drugs brings Mexico’s drug cartels more than $40 billion of estimated annual revenue. That is equivalent to around 5 percent of Mexico’s GDP and is double what Mexican migrants send back as remittances. Most importantly, it constitutes an indigenously produced source of foreign capital, a boon that every emerging/developing economy would want access to. This capital has to go somewhere: the mattress of a local sicario (essentially cartel enforcers), investments in the entertainment and tourism industry or offshore bank accounts.

    Feliz Navidad.

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  • Inside The $1 Billion Business Of Christmas Trees

    helicopter christmas tree

    A Christmas tree is synonymous with the holiday season as much as gift-giving overload; fun but mildly dysfunctional family get-togethers; and otherwise cringe-worthy but enjoyable "seasonal" music.

    But do you know where your tree comes from? Should you have gotten a fancy plastic one with pre-attached lights?

    Are millions of real tree caracasses that end up in dumpsters January 1st really better for the environment?

    And who are those scruffy out-of-towners on New York City and other urban corners selling "real Canadian" firs?

    We'll tell you.

    Christmas Trees 101 -->

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  • Stratfor: It’s Not Just Greece; Other Eurozone Countries Are Teetering On The Brink

    Greece is in big trouble. Just this week, a cut in its credit rating freaked out global markets, and re-ignited fears of a euro breakup.

    Global intelligence company Stratfor has a nice explainer:

    Stratfor: A number of other eurozone nations, however, are facing fiscal situations nearly as difficult as Athens’, and the European Union may decide to make an example of Greece to encourage other high-spending nations to cut their debt levels.

    The roots, Stratfor explains, are from over-spending:

    Greece is considered one of Europe’s most notorious overspenders. Even prior to the current crisis, it was fighting high budget deficits, primarily caused by high social spending, a symptom of the country’s ever-present social tensions.

    That has caused soaring deficits:

    greek greece budget deficit

    The Greek banking sector is also in trouble:

    Stratfor: Greek exposure, particularly to the Balkans, is therefore troubling for the overall economy. The fear is that, unlike the larger Italian and Austrian banks, Greek banks will not be able to refinance loans or absorb losses of affiliates abroad.

    Greek banks have thus far drawn around 40 billion euros of cheap credit from the ECB, out of a total of around 665 billion euros extended to all eurozone banks. This represents between 6 and 7 percent of total ECB outstanding liquidity, much higher than the Greek share of EU economy (2.5 percent), and puts Greek banks second only to the Irish in terms of dependence on ECB emergency liquidity.

    The basic economic indicators aren't good:

    greek greece budget deficit

    So what to do? Stratfor notes that balancing the budget (resulting in high unemployment); leaving the Eurozone (which would kill its ability to raise funds); and defaulting on the debt (which would "sever Greece from capital markets") are all unrealistic options.

    Only bailout remains:

    Stratfor: That leaves an internal European bailout. Here the obstacle is Germany. The Germans feel that they have already bailed out all of Europe — twice (once by absorbing East Germany without a cent of assistance from the rest of the Continent, a second time in absorbing so many small and weak economies into the eurozone which Germany underwrites).

    If Germany is to sign off on a Greek bailout, therefore, it will only be under terms which give EU institutions an unprecedented ability to regulate Greek finances. Since Athens has already signed away monetary policy in order to accede to the eurozone, all that is left is budgetary control.

    Problem is, it's not like others in Europe have lots of extra funds:

    greek greece budget deficit

    Whatever happens, a Greek collapse could set off a nasty chain reaction. As Stratfor analyst Peter Zeihan told us for a feature on 10 Looming Geopolitical Disasters, "Greece is going to be plowing the way, and where Greece goes, Italy may follow. Spain may follow shortly thereafter."

    "We just don't know what's going to happen," says Zeihan.

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  • Desmond Lachman: The Dollar Is A Mess, But Here’s Why The World Can’t Ditch It

    lachman aei global imbalances

    Global imbalances may not have been at the root of the financial crisis -- as some had warned -- but they're still dangerous.

    Problem is, there's no great replacement for the dollar.

    "You can't take the U.S. debt off the table quite yet," says AEI resident scholar Desmond Lachman, but adds that "I don't buy the notion that this whole crisis was because we had global imbalances."

    Lachman's remarks came at an AEI event on the the subject, "Global Imbalances: The Next Crisis?" also featuring University of Virginia economist Frank Warnock.

    Yesterday, we brought you Warnock's assessment; today, we bring you Lachman's.

    SEE WHY GLOBAL IMBALANCES ARE BAD, BUT WHY WE CAN'T DITCH THE DOLLAR EITHER>>>

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  • 10 Looming Geopolitical Disasters

    greece greek athens protest fight police battle riot

    Here's a friendly reminder on investing: pay attention to the rest of the world.

    Just yesterday, U.S. markets fell sharply when Moody's cut its ratings on a host of Dubai government-controlled companies and after Fitch downgraded its credit rating on Greece (pictured) to BBB- from A-, highlighting "the weak credibility of fiscal institutions and the policy framework in Greece," according to the Wall Street Journal.

    That "weak credibility" is all over the world.

    In no particular order, we round up the ten economic time bombs whose explosion -- some very possible in the next year -- could have serious consequences for global markets.

    SEE INTERNATIONAL DISASTERS WAITING TO HAPPEN>>>

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  • The Global Rebalancing Nightmare Has Yet To Begin

    AEI global imbalancesPrior to the financial crisis, “global imbalances” — primarily large American budget and trade deficits financed by foreigners — were considered a potential trigger for a coming global financial crisis.

    But the nightmare scenario scenario of foreign investors’ shifting preference away from the dollar forcing devaluation or interest rate hikes didn’t happen.

    In fact, U.S. debt securities were snapped up by international investors during the height of the crisis.

    So, can we forget about scary “global imbalance” caused-crises?

    Nope.

    Free market think tank AEI hosted an event on the the subject, “Global Imbalances: The Next Crisis?” featuring University of Virginia economist Frank Warnock’s assessment of the the continued threat.

    “As it turns out we did have a crisis but not the global imbalances crisis,” said Warnock. Yet Warnock’s research on American debt says that imbalances remain important. Reserve accumulation and global investors’ preferences could more likely prolong, rather than end, financial imbalances, he says.

    SEE WARNOCK’S PRESENTATION WARNING ABOUT GLOBAL IMBALANCES>>>

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  • Chinese Journalists Busted For Helping To Cover Up Mining Disaster That Killed 35

    china miners chinese

    We knew the squeaky clean image China presented at the 2008 Olympics was too good to be true, but a recent cover-up scandal reveals just how hard Beijing tried.

    Guardian: China will prosecute 10 journalists and dozens of officials over the three-month cover up of a mining disaster that killed 35 people, state media said today.

    Mine bosses moved bodies, destroyed evidence and paid reporters 2.6m yuan (£231,000) to conceal the disaster, the China Daily newspaper reported. They used threats and large payoffs to keep relatives quiet, cremated bodies against the wishes of bereaved families and dumped earth to seal off the shaft, according to reports.

    Chinese reporters have long taken hush money after accidents, according to the Guardian.

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  • Iran Seizes British Yacht, Oil Soars

    Oil is up more than 1.4%, as Iran is at the center of a potential global landmine.

    AP: Britain’s Foreign Office says that a racing yacht carrying five U.K. nationals has been stopped by Iranian naval vessels, and they are now in Iran. Government officials said Monday that the yacht may have strayed inadvertently into Iranian waters when it was stopped last Wednesday.

    The Foreign Office added that all the crew members aboard the yacht are “safe and well,” according to Fox News.

    Something similar happened in March 2007 when 15 British sailors were seized by Iran and held captive for nearly two weeks.

    Zero Hedge has this chart showing what happened to oil prices:

    iran zero hedge oil

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  • The 10 Most Corrupt Countries

    William Jefferson freezer cash bribes

    Maybe we do need robust financial regulation.

    Despite it's global leadership position, 18 countries are less corrupt than the U.S., according to Transparency International’s recently released 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index.

    TI: The United States score remains stable at 7.5 despite widespread concerns over a lack of government oversight in relation to the financial sector...Another reason for concern is that in the US the legislature is perceived to be the institution most affected by corruption...

    Of course, America does well compared to most of the other 180 countries ranked, including most-corrupt Somalia and other bribe-ridden places like Afghanistan and Myanmar.

    "CPI" scores are based on an average of between three and nine surveys that measure the perceived level of public-sector corruption in a country; the lower the number, the more corrupt.

    To compare the U.S. to its peers, we've grouped scores from the 30 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the most developed in the world, and found the 10 most corrupt.

    As TI notes, relatively wealthy countries aren't immune to corruption: "At a time when massive stimulus packages, fast-track disbursements of public funds and attempts to secure peace are being implemented around the world, it is essential to identify where corruption blocks good governance and accountability, in order to break its corrosive cycle" said Huguette Labelle, Chair of TI.

    SEE THE 10 MOST CORRUPT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES>>>

    Image: What the FBI found in the freezer of then-Rep. William Jefferson, a Louisiana Democrat. The cash was part of $400 million in bribes Jefferson received for brokering business deals in Africa. He was convicted in August on 11 counts that included bribery, racketeering and money laundering and was sentenced to 13 years in prison, which Jefferson is appealing.

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